How Has the Government's Economic Policy Fared in One Year? Economic Analyst Shahbaz Rana
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00:00The Suda government has been in power for almost a year now.
00:03During this time, Pakistan's biggest political challenge has been the economy.
00:08On the front of the economy, what performance has the government shown in a year?
00:12Because the claims are obvious, they are very big, as is the case with every government.
00:16Mr. Shibaz says, Mr. Mareeb Nawaz says, how they have supported this sinking ship.
00:22And even the World Bank delegation has praised the economic signs. Listen to this.
00:28The nine directors of the World Bank delegation have praised Pakistan's economic development
00:35and macroeconomic stability.
00:40After a 7-8 year ill economy, God has shown His grace.
00:44In the last year, there has been an improvement in Pakistan's economy.
00:48Whatever the media and the opposition say,
00:51everyone understands that Pakistan is in a take-off position.
00:54Whatever the media and the opposition say, it doesn't matter.
01:01But maybe it does matter a little because of what the managers of the old economy of PMLN say.
01:08Because whether it is Mr. Khan Abbasi or Mr. Mifta Ismail,
01:11they are not politically with PMLN.
01:14But how are they rating their current economic measures?
01:18Listen to this.
01:19Low inflation doesn't mean low inflation.
01:23There is a decrease in the rate of inflation.
01:26And that decrease is due to the world's commodity prices,
01:29not due to any policy of this government.
01:31Oil prices have decreased in the world due to low inflation.
01:34The government has not taken a single step to reduce inflation in Pakistan.
01:38In the last three years, our GDP growth is 1.5% less than the growth of population.
01:45In fact, it is 2% less.
01:46So every Pakistani has become 2-2.5% poor in the last three years.
01:51We have seen today that the resident chief, Mr. Mahir Banji,
01:56who has given an interview to Mr. Mehta Bhaidar,
01:58he is the one who rates the pressure of loans on Pakistan.
02:04Mr. Shahbaz Rana is with us in the program.
02:07Thank you very much, Shahbaz, for joining us.
02:09Let's ask the question in a simple way.
02:13The government is saying that the media is also wrong.
02:16The opposition is also wrong.
02:18The government is saying that the economy has improved.
02:21If we arrange a report card for the government's economic policies in a year,
02:26how will that report card be?
02:31Thank you very much.
02:33The truth is being said on both sides.
02:37But the complete truth is not being said on both sides.
02:39This is a fact.
02:41A year and a half ago, when there was talk of Pakistan's Diwali,
02:45when you start this journey from June 2023,
02:48in which the PDM government also signed an INF program,
02:52which was then completed by the caretakers.
02:54When Shahbaz Shahbaz became the Prime Minister for the second time,
02:57a new program had to be taken at that time.
02:59The full payment of loans was at the top.
03:02When the INF program was found, the risk of defaulting was averted.
03:07If you can say one economic success of this government,
03:12and the credit goes to them that they did not allow Diwali in Pakistan.
03:16However, they brought the most difficult, unacceptable and extremely strict budget.
03:22In any case, they saved Pakistan from Diwali.
03:25There are so many wrong things in that budget that you will have to reverse in the future.
03:30The second thing that Chief Minister Maria Nawaz Sharif said,
03:35that Pakistan has come to the stage of taking off.
03:37God forbid, don't talk about this on this stage.
03:40We are still going through the phase of economic stabilization,
03:44and we have to go through it now.
03:46At this stage, the economy does not need to grow by 5-6%.
03:52We cannot afford it.
03:54What is the reason for this?
03:55The reason is that whenever there has been growth in the past in Pakistan,
03:58whether it was the last year of PMLN in 2018,
04:01in which there was a growth of about 2% in 6 cities,
04:05whether it was the last year of PTI in which there was a growth of 6%,
04:08both these growth rates came from foreign and domestic loans,
04:12by carrying out progressive projects, by opening imports.
04:16Today, if you take only two indicators that are printed by this government,
04:21if you put those indicators in front of you,
04:23then you will say that don't talk about taking off,
04:25work with your head down.
04:26Indicator number one,
04:28that in the last two months, the government has relaxed imports to Dharamdat,
04:33$5.5 billion per month.
04:35As soon as the imports went in January,
04:37your current account loss was $420 million.
04:40This means that the pressure has come back to its place.
04:42The second thing, two days ago,
04:45the Pakistani Bureau of Statistics,
04:47which is the institution of government statistics,
04:50the big industries of Pakistan,
04:52where taxes are collected from,
04:54where jobs are created,
04:56in large-scale manufacturing,
04:58PBS has told us that
05:00in the first six months of this financial year,
05:02negative 1.9% growth,
05:04and only in the month of December,
05:06negative 3.7% growth.
05:09So yes, you have succeeded.
05:11We did not go bankrupt.
05:13It was a difficult decision.
05:14It was mostly on the salary class, on the industries.
05:16But if you say that we have stabilized the economy of Pakistan,
05:19if we have to take off, then we will do it now.
05:21What grade will you give?
05:22What grade will you give?
05:23If we simplify it completely.
05:26Madam PM,
05:27I think it would be appropriate to give a grade.
05:29But I would not go beyond 5.
05:31Okay, beyond 5.
05:32Because it is a very early stage.
05:34It is much below 5.
05:36Not 5 even, much below 5.
05:38But it is the first year.
05:39It took time to stabilize things.
05:41I did a little caretaker work.
05:43If we do not grade them now,
05:44it is better that they come under pressure.
05:46Okay, fine.
05:47What are the challenges for the coming year?
05:49Three big challenges are in front of the government.
05:52Because now they have entered the next year.
05:54What will be those three big challenges?
05:57Look, the biggest challenge that the government will have to face,
06:00and that process has just started,
06:02is that the government will be under pressure
06:04to grow the economy of Pakistan,
06:06to run 5-6 percent.
06:08The government's job is to tolerate this pressure.
06:11The second pressure on the government will be
06:14that you have to relax the real estate sector,
06:18which is a speculative sector.
06:21The government has tightened it,
06:22and the IMF also wants to tighten it.
06:24The government should not relax it.
06:26It is speculative.
06:27You must facilitate the construction sector.
06:30You should not facilitate the purchase and sale of plots.
06:33Okay.
06:34The third important challenge,
06:36apart from these things,
06:37is that Dharamdad has its own problems.
06:41You have to focus a lot on Dharamdad.
06:44Right.
06:45This is where Pakistan will benefit.
06:47Whatever policies they have to adopt,
06:49should be made to sell to Dharamdad.
06:51Even if they want to take foreign investment,
06:54they should take it only in those sectors
06:56from where they can get industry in Pakistan
06:58and export their products.
07:00They should not come to Pakistan
07:02in the name of foreign investment.
07:04There should be a chicken shop here.
07:06They should promote consumption
07:08and from there,
07:09the royalties and profits
07:10should start going out of the country.
07:11Right.
07:12We should not get dollars in Pakistan.
07:13These are their big challenges.