Will Donald Trump defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion? Going into his second administration, the mercurial president has indicated his commitment to be less than ironclad. But analysts on both side of the political spectrum seem to agree that Taiwan may be too vital to the U.S. to ignore.
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00:00Chinese warships roar through waters around Taiwan, China's largest naval exercises in
00:06nearly three decades in December, deploying 90 vessels to the sensitive region.
00:15The goal?
00:16To exert pressure on Taiwan and reiterate China's sovereignty claims over the country,
00:22claims the government in Taipei rejects.
00:31China has threatened to seize Taiwan by force, and has been stepping up its military threats
00:36around the country to show the world it's serious about taking control.
00:41But the United States stands between China and its ambitions.
00:46Washington is committed to providing defense equipment to Taipei under the Taiwan Relations
00:52Act, selling everything from tanks to missile defense systems, while also deliberately not
00:58saying whether they would directly defend Taiwan if China attacked.
01:02All this to deter Beijing.
01:05But what happens if deterrence isn't enough?
01:09Taipei can only do so much to prevent a Chinese invasion, and with China building up its arsenal
01:15and carrying out more frequent military drills around Taiwan, Washington is watching closely.
01:21And with U.S. President Donald Trump back in office, the question of Washington's commitment
01:26to Taiwan is front of mind in Taipei, after Trump previously said Taiwan is too far away
01:34to defend, and more recently suggesting the country needs to pay for protection.
01:39You know, Taiwan, they stole our chip business, okay?
01:44They want us to protect and they want protection.
01:46They don't pay us money for the protection, you know?
01:49The mob makes you pay money, right?
01:51Trump's comments came despite arms sales to Taiwan hitting record levels during his first
01:56presidency and going strong under former U.S. President Joe Biden.
02:02Some analysts in the USA say Trump is threatening Taiwan to make sure it's taking its own defense
02:08seriously.
02:10Taiwan is at around 2.5 percent of GDP in terms of defense spending.
02:14The defense budget has nearly doubled over the last eight years or so.
02:18But I think there is a broad consensus in Washington, and especially among those who
02:22are in the Trump administration, that 2.5 percent of GDP is not going to cut it.
02:27Taiwan seems willing to play ball, with President Lai Ching-de in February announcing a special
02:32budget to increase defense spending.
02:49And, reports say, Taiwan is also now looking to procure a multi-billion U.S. dollar arms
02:57package from the U.S.
02:59But Washington also supports Taiwan's defense in more practical ways.
03:04Increased U.S. training of Taiwan, as well as Taiwanese units training in the continental
03:10United States with National Guard units, those are things that are relatively new developments.
03:17And those are tangible things that the United States is doing to help Taiwan.
03:22But despite these developments, some people in Washington believe that Taiwan is not Trump's
03:27main concern.
03:28Very clearly, the priority is going to be on China as a rival, and that it is not just
03:37military.
03:38It's economic as well as it's societal.
03:40The U.S. is locked in a race with China for dominance in Asia.
03:46The U.S. has a strong foothold in the region, where close allies like Japan, the Philippines
03:51and South Korea host dozens of U.S. military bases.
03:57Taiwan sits really at the center of what's called the first island chain.
04:02This is essential.
04:04America essentially has China surrounded by allies and partners, in many cases U.S. military
04:13bases.
04:14China is very limited right now.
04:17Trump's also appointed China hawks, like Secretary of State Marco Rubio, to his new cabinet,
04:23a signal his administration will be tough on China.
04:27Movements already taking place, with the State Department updating its website on U.S.-Taiwan
04:33relations, removing a line that says the U.S. does not support Taiwan independence, and
04:38adding one to say differences between Taiwan and China must be resolved without coercion.
04:45Washington appears to be clarifying its stance on how it would respond to a Taiwan emergency,
04:51with some analysts in the U.S. saying Washington would not stand idly by.
04:56There are upwards of 50,000 to 80,000 American citizens in Taiwan.
05:00If the PLA is told to start launching attacks against Taiwan, American citizens will start
05:05dying in large numbers.
05:07No politician here in the United States would be able to sanction inaction.
05:13Only a month into Trump's presidency, and a lot remains uncertain.
05:18But Taipei's willingness to accommodate Washington and its positioning in the U.S.'s Asia strategy
05:24gives stakeholders a reason to look beyond the face value of Donald Trump's statements.
05:30Leon Lien, Laurel Stewart, and Leslie Liao for Taiwan Plus.