In an exclusive interview, Bonnie Glaser, head of the Indo-Pacific Program of the United States German Marshall Fund, explains why she believes Taiwan is facing a pivotal moment for its domestic politics and defense amid growing global unpredictability.
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00:00I want to first off start off with asking about the current state of US-Taiwan relations.
00:05Are Taipei and Washington the closest that they've ever been?
00:08Well, I certainly think that the US-Taiwan relationship is very strong.
00:12It has really been moving from strength to strength.
00:16There is so much that binds our two societies, our peoples, our countries together.
00:22And concern about China's pressure on Taiwan is one of them.
00:27Our economic relationship is extremely strong.
00:32And I think that we do face some uncertainty going forward.
00:36We do have a new president in Washington.
00:38I think it's not completely clear yet how President Trump will be approaching Taiwan.
00:45But you know, Taiwan is not alone because every country in the world is facing some
00:50unpredictability with Trump and pressure.
00:54And so I think that there's no reason to believe that the relationship will not remain
00:59strong going forward.
01:01But there will be demands, I think, from President Trump and there will be a little bit of adjustments.
01:07We've already seen President Trump put pressure on Canada, on Mexico, on Denmark because President
01:17Trump wants to acquire Greenland.
01:19So Taiwan is not alone.
01:21I do want to ask about this word chain.
01:23So recently, the United States State Department on the Taiwan fact sheet, I'm going to read
01:28this verbatim, drop the phrase, quote, we do not support Taiwan independence.
01:31Bonnie, I want to ask you how significant that change is.
01:35And is the United States trying to say something without saying it?
01:38Well, first, I would say we don't know who changed that language.
01:43You might remember that early in the Biden administration, that same sentence was deleted.
01:48And approximately one week later, it was reinserted in the website.
01:54So nobody talked about how that happened.
01:58But this time, my view is that there is a perception in some of the people in the administration
02:08that we don't have to say all the time that the United States doesn't support Taiwan independence.
02:17Partly because I think the government here thinks that it doesn't need to be said all
02:22the time.
02:23But the important thing is that this is not a change in policy.
02:26And it's quite clear to me that the other language on the website that the United States
02:32opposes unilateral change in the status quo by either side of the strait already covers
02:39that the United States doesn't support Taiwan independence.
02:42So it's not a change in policy.
02:44I do have a bit of a concern that because we are in a transition in our administration,
02:51and there's anxiety, frankly, in Beijing, that they might overreact to this change in
02:58language.
02:59So it might be seen as very welcome here.
03:01But I hope that we don't see a very strong reaction from China.
03:05It's the public displays of aggression in the legislative sessions or agreements or
03:11disagreements on defense spending, whether it's the submarine or conscription.
03:15When it comes to, like you mentioned about the first step of having both sides agree
03:20and then engage with the United States, how big is that obstacle of both the KMT and the
03:25DPP not agreeing in order to see the common good, which is the defense of the country?
03:30I'll tell you an anecdote.
03:32I met with the delegation from Taiwan that attended the Trump inauguration.
03:38The day after the inauguration, they all met with members of Congress.
03:42I believe they met with 24 members of Congress.
03:44It was like speed dating.
03:46They each had like 15 minutes.
03:48And I heard from the delegation members that every member they met with was concerned about
03:55defense spending and the budget here.
03:58But of course, it goes way beyond defense spending, because the freezes, the cuts are
04:03affecting many different aspects of your government and society.
04:09And I think the United States is quite concerned about that.
04:12We certainly have polarization in my country, in our political system, but I have to tell
04:18you there are issues in which there is some bipartisan consensus and agreement.
04:24And I think that Taiwan really needs to figure out how it can, the steps it can take to best
04:33defend the country, to ensure that the foreign ministry is doing its job, the defense ministry,
04:41the Ministry of Interior that's doing part of this whole of society, defense resilience.
04:46It seems to me that right now this is a pivotal moment.
04:52And if the budget is not approved and the society is not able to move forward in a positive
05:01direction, then I worry that this is something that will create more weaknesses and vulnerabilities
05:07in Taiwan that Beijing can take advantage of.