The Scotsman Bulletin Tuesday February 18 2025 #Ukraine
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00:00Hello and welcome to the Scotsman's daily video bulletin for this Tuesday.
00:05My name is Dale Miller.
00:06I'm deputy editor of the Scotsman and I'm joined by our Westminster correspondent, Alexander Brown.
00:13Alex, before we get to speaking about all things in the world of politics, let's talk about the front page of today's Scotsman.
00:23And we reference here something that we're going to talk about shortly anyway.
00:28You see Starmer shaking hands there with Emmanuel Macron.
00:32There are talks due to take place today between the US and Russia over a potential end to the war in Ukraine.
00:42Now, obviously, President Zelensky and Ukraine itself are unhappy that they're not a direct part in these talks.
00:50The US have stressed at this stage that they're keen to see if Russia are serious about ending the war and a deal could be reached.
00:59So preliminary talks there. And we know Keir Starmer was talking overnight about what the UK would do to help a resolution.
01:08I'll get your thoughts on that in a minute, Alex, but also the part two in our justice denied series reference there with the exclusive tag on the front page.
01:18That series being written by Martin McLaughlin.
01:21You can read that on the site throughout this week and find each part in every edition of the paper we're running that Monday to Saturday this week.
01:31Alex, I mean, this Ukraine, the talks are important.
01:36We don't know exactly where it's going to go yet.
01:40Give us an update, please, on what Sir Keir Starmer has said and where the UK sits in negotiations.
01:46So a lot of what Keir has said kind of feels like it's bracing and trying to prepare the rest of Europe for a response.
01:53It's essentially a race against time. We know that Russia is meeting with Ukraine and Saudi Arabia at the moment.
01:59Not with Ukraine, but with the US. And at the same time, Europe had this meeting yesterday in Paris that was not a formal meeting.
02:07It wasn't considered a summit, which meant that reporters couldn't go.
02:10Reporters couldn't be there to witness it, which I think shows severity and importance of it.
02:15It was just off the record. Oh, what do we do?
02:18Since then, Starmer has talked about the need for a US backstop.
02:21Essentially, whatever happens, whatever peace deal is arranged, Ukraine is going to need guarantees from the US for its own security.
02:29This not only throws the gauntlet to Trump to kind of say, look, if you are going to be the leader of the free world, you have to help keep the world free.
02:36It kind of puts that pressure on them and says, whatever you're agreeing here, you've got to be confident that you are going to be the ones to maintain it.
02:42If it's your mess, it's your mess to maintain and protect whatever is left of Ukraine from these arrangements.
02:49So that's what he said. And I think he's also talked about spending.
02:53Defence spending is something that the prime minister has repeatedly said, well, we want to go up, but we can't yet.
02:59That's not going to cut it. I spoke to numerous MPs yesterday about this and actually have been doing so for a long time.
03:07And the current defence spending of 2.5 is not enough.
03:10When you speak to MPs and including Labour MPs, they think this is going to have to go up to 3.5 or perhaps 4 by the 2030s.
03:18And we know that Starmer talked about having this peacekeeping force on the ground,
03:22having British soldiers there in Ukraine to ensure its protection, security after a peace deal is agreed.
03:28I spoke to MPs who said actually to do that, defence spending will have to go up.
03:32We do not have the capability currently in the military to send troops to another country and keep them there.
03:38Defence spending is going to have to go up. And of course, to do that, money may have to come from other departments.
03:43So it's a real headache for the prime minister.
03:46And it's unclear when defence spending will go up or how this plan can actually work.
03:51We still don't know any of the details.
03:53Alex, the mood music from other countries as well in Europe was interesting because Starmer came out and talked about peacekeeping forces.
04:01And it wasn't something necessarily backed up by the rest of the key players that they were willing to take that step.
04:09Yeah, Poland said they wouldn't be, which I think is understandable given Poland's proximity to Russia and that they feel like perhaps they are,
04:16if Ukraine were to fall, they are another country which we know that Putin would have his eye on.
04:21So I can understand that. I think there was support for it for the French.
04:25But broadly, I think the real issue is, and this came across to the MPs actually,
04:30it's like announcing he'll be protecting a deal when we don't know what that deal looks like.
04:35We don't know how many troops would be required to enforce it.
04:39We don't know what security guarantees would have to be offered.
04:43It seems like it's saying something to go, look, we will stand by and protect whatever deal is agreed.
04:49But it's easier to say that when you're not in the room making a decision over the deal.
04:53It feels a bit like trying to say, look, we're going to do our part and help Ukraine when actually America is the one now thrashing out decisions.
05:00So I think in a way it shows Britain's fallen state in the world and the importance of working with Europe rather than just making tough announcements to come up with a solution to pressure the US.
05:11And going forward, the key thing now is Trump is meeting with Stalmer next week.
05:16Next week, the prime minister will fly to America and he will meet with Trump.
05:20Europe needs to have a good plan and a good offer, and more importantly, perhaps a strong narrative to convince Trump, who has shown that he is impressionable,
05:30he can be influenced to find a way to deliver a peace deal that works for Ukraine, not just for the rogue state that is Russia.
05:40Alex, we know this US administration and Trump himself likes to play kingmaker, likes to be seen to be coming in, negotiating a deal, etc.
05:51We saw that during his first term when he met the North Korean president.
05:56Lots of pictures, lots of positive PR coming out the back of that.
06:01Is Ukraine obviously upset that they don't have a seat central to these discussions?
06:07But if the US and Russia do reach some initial deal, is that not in the interests of all the countries, including Ukraine, involved?
06:17Well, it's hard to say when we don't know what the deal looks like, but it's worth saying that Ukraine said that any deal arranged or discussed without their presence is not a deal.
06:26It's not just it's not relevant.
06:28I think the problem is Russia is, we suspect, open to the idea of stopping the war.
06:34But where it is now, which means they have taken even more territory than they have since the annexing of Crimea in 2014, and they've expanded and Ukraine has lost loads of sovereign territory.
06:45That is very unlikely to be a deal that any country can accept.
06:49And we actually we've seen repeatedly the Zelensky said there will be no peace deal.
06:53He will not accept anything that sees Ukraine lose territory.
06:57We think perhaps there could be a softening over Crimea.
07:00You know, we could go back to 2014 borders where Ukraine does lose territory, but it gets security guarantees and that's and that's it over.
07:07But that is all just speculation.
07:09We just don't know.
07:12And it seems like any deal the Russians want will be completely incompatible with Ukraine's demands.
07:18You can read that piece from Alex where he's spoken to numerous MPs, including former SMP defence spokesperson Stuart McDonald and Stuart Geffens as well.
07:29That's available at scotsman.com.
07:31Just go to the politics tab on the navigation bar to find that story.
07:36And please follow us along in print and on the website for all the very latest around the developing situation with Ukraine and what does come out of these initial talks between the US and Russia today.
07:49Alex, thanks to you and thanks to everyone else for joining us.