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00:00Ted on out there, Alexa, for the grade three mineshaft.
00:03That's going to be race number 11.
00:05This kicks off our late pick four sequence.
00:07This is a race where you have older horses.
00:09And I think the horse to beat,
00:11the one that they'll all remember the name of,
00:14is Catching Freedom.
00:16Catching Freedom won the Louisiana Derby last year.
00:18Catching Freedom was fourth in the Kentucky Derby,
00:21was third in the Preakness.
00:22He was one of the better three-year-olds.
00:24So this will be the first start of his four-year-old season.
00:27You have him on top.
00:28I mean, he's the class of the field.
00:29We know he likes the fairgrounds.
00:31It seems like he's the one they all have to hold off.
00:33Yeah, absolutely is.
00:34You know, he's, like you said,
00:35no stranger to this high-level competition.
00:38Been off since June,
00:39but trainer Brad Cox wins 38% of the time
00:42when bringing horses back after more than six months off.
00:45So, you know, there's a lot of upside here.
00:48I do think he'll be the favorite.
00:49I'm hoping he'll stay kind of a tepid favorite.
00:51You see the morning line is three to one.
00:53I mean, that would be awesome if he stayed there.
00:56Even two to one, I think, would be a good spot
00:59for him, odds-wise.
01:00I really like one horse in this particular race,
01:02the number four Hall of Fame.
01:04He was very highly regarded last year as a three-year-old.
01:08The problem was every time when he stepped up
01:10and faced the better horses, he just kind of folded.
01:13So he's been the type of horse who has looked awesome
01:16when everything goes well for him,
01:18but when he's kind of been punched,
01:19he hasn't really been able to punch back yet.
01:22Now he's older.
01:23He's two for two this year at four.
01:25I think he has a chance to be like a really good
01:28top-of-the-division older horse.
01:30It starts right here, though.
01:31He has to have a big win,
01:32and it could be in a spot like this
01:33when he is facing a horse like Catching Freedom
01:36coming off of a layoff.
01:38So Catching Freedom has not raced for a while.
01:40Maybe Hall of Fame can have that fitness advantage over him,
01:43and he's a little bit faster early in the race,
01:46so he can kind of get the jump on a horse
01:47like Catching Freedom.
01:48So we're gonna use two horses
01:50to try to kick off the pick four.
01:51We need either the four or the five to get the job done,
01:55and then Alexa, we'll move to a really tricky 12th race.
01:59It's the Fairgrounds.
02:01It's a mile and an eighth race on the turf horse,
02:03and we felt like we needed to use a good amount in here
02:07just to get through.
02:08Why don't you start us off?
02:09You're gonna talk a little bit
02:10about the inside couple, right?
02:12Yeah, the number one What Say Thee we're using
02:15at four and a half to one morning line odds.
02:16One last out in a lifetime best performance,
02:19although that was back in November.
02:20So coming off a bit of a decent layoff
02:22to start his seven-year-old campaign.
02:25So this is the first time they're trying him
02:27in a graded stakes in his entire life, but he fits.
02:31I think he really peaked last year in his six-year-old
02:33career, he has that closing speed,
02:35and I think will likely be near the back of the pack
02:38early on.
02:39You can see time from US does give him that LP white flag,
02:41which is the best late pace in the race.
02:43We'll also use the two Gigante at three and a half to one
02:46who won his last two races in a row,
02:48both stakes races at fairgrounds in December and January.
02:53One was on the turf, one was on the dirt
02:54because it was raining that day,
02:56and so they took it off of the turf,
02:58but turf definitely is his preferred surface.
03:00He's the only one in here who ran in this race last year
03:03where he got fourth place.
03:04So like What Say Thee, he's also a closer,
03:07but does tend to stay closer to the pace
03:10than What Say Thee does.
03:11So I definitely think he seems to be at the top of his game,
03:13has a good shot in here.
03:15Another horse to the outside that we'll use
03:17is Taking Candy, appropriate name for Valentine's Day.
03:21Right?
03:22Yes.
03:23Trainer Sherita Vo, who has a very successful meet
03:26so far at fairgrounds.
03:27She's had 50 starters.
03:29Half of them have hit the board
03:31and Taking Candy is coming off a three month layoff as well.
03:33But his last time out in November,
03:34he ran a length behind What Say Thee,
03:37had a decent trip.
03:38So there wasn't like a huge excuse for why he lost.
03:41He just was just outkicked.
03:43But as you can see, time from US does predict
03:45it's gonna be the other way around this time.
03:47Still a one, two finish,
03:48but this time with Taking Candy winning.
03:51We had a bag of those Nerds gummy clusters
03:53that were supposed to be for Milo, my son's school.
03:55And I actually took the bag.
03:57So I know exactly what we're talking about.
03:58Nerds have gotten me this year.
04:01I hadn't had them in like 10 years
04:02and I've just been eating Nerds.
04:04Sorry, Candy, you were taken.
04:06We'll also use the three unit economics.
04:09This horse had to launch really wide,
04:11had to come from the back,
04:12had to go very wide and lost to a horse
04:14who got a perfect trip.
04:16I really liked the three unit economics.
04:18The four, I'd rather be blessed,
04:20is a horse who should be flashing really good speed.
04:22So could be part of the early pace
04:24and could hang on for a share there.
04:26So we're gonna spread out.
04:27We felt like we needed to use the one, two, three,
04:29four and eight in race number 12.
04:32We moved to the 13th.
04:33Alexa, these are the fillies
04:35looking for Kentucky Oaks points.
04:36And we have a couple of good fillies in here.
04:39In particular, the number two, Good Cheer,
04:41who you can set us up for.
04:43Yeah, Good Cheer.
04:44Do you see this saddlecloth behind me for Mon Moi Girl?
04:47One of my all-time favorite horses.
04:50She ran 17 times, won 14 of them.
04:52The other three, she got second.
04:54She won the Breeders' Cup,
04:55Disc Tap in the World Championships twice.
04:57She won the Kentucky Oaks.
04:58Before all of that, at the very start of her career,
05:01she had an identical lineup, same trainer,
05:03identical career path for her first four races
05:06coming into this race.
05:07And Good Cheer is doing better than she did
05:10because Good Cheer is undefeated,
05:12where one of those second place finishes
05:14for Mon Moi Girl was in that.
05:15So, I mean, she's great.
05:17I can't wait to watch her race.
05:19Good Cheer is the undefeated one to beat.
05:22You have Simply Joking, the number six,
05:24who's kind of like the now horse,
05:26who's logical, who's won both of her starts.
05:29She fits.
05:30And then I'm gonna throw in a big price, Alexa,
05:32of the number four, Gowl's Delight,
05:34because she just had a really troubled trip
05:35at Oaklawn Park last time out.
05:37She never had a shot there.
05:39So we'll go two, four, and six,
05:41and we can pull up the pick four ticket now, Alexa,
05:44because we already talked about race number 14.
05:46So here's what it looks like.
05:48Altogether, it's a $60 investment
05:50if we use two horses in the 11th.
05:52So two times five.
05:54Make sure you multiply the amount of horses
05:56you're gonna use in each race.
05:58This is our parlay.
05:59So we basically got a 14 parlay
06:01for our all graded stakes pick four.
06:04There's the ticket.
06:05Hopefully we can lead you in the right direction.