Harga minyak dunia melemah pada perdagangan hari Kamis. Pelaku pasar menilai pelemahan ini sebagai imbas dari kemungkinan terjadinya perdamaian antara Ukraina dan Rusia.
Hal tersebut akan berdampak pada berakhirnya sanksi yang dikenakan terhadap minyak Rusia oleh AS. Di saat yang sama, persediaan minyak mentah Amerika tengah meningkat.
Rusia adalah produsen minyak terbesar ketiga di dunia. Sanksi yang dijatuhkan pada ekspor minyak mentah Rusia sebagai akibat dari invasinya ke Ukraina. Sanksi yang dikenakan hampir tiga tahun lalu tersebut mendukung kenaikan harga minyak dunia.
Hal tersebut akan berdampak pada berakhirnya sanksi yang dikenakan terhadap minyak Rusia oleh AS. Di saat yang sama, persediaan minyak mentah Amerika tengah meningkat.
Rusia adalah produsen minyak terbesar ketiga di dunia. Sanksi yang dijatuhkan pada ekspor minyak mentah Rusia sebagai akibat dari invasinya ke Ukraina. Sanksi yang dikenakan hampir tiga tahun lalu tersebut mendukung kenaikan harga minyak dunia.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us.
00:07Next, we will look at the Spotlight Market.
00:10Today, in the Bass Market, Aman Stocks and BBCA became the HSG focus with a 6% and 1.64% weakness.
00:19Meanwhile, the property sector led the strengthening of the sectoral index which rose 1.51%
00:24Meanwhile, the MDKA and MSCI stocks rose 14% in the last two days.
00:31Next, we will look at the economic agenda from Asia.
00:34There will be data on South Korea's export-import prices in January.
00:40Then, there will be data on South Korea's unemployment rate in January and Singapore's GDP in April 2024
00:47and Malaysia's GDP in April 2024.
00:52Then, there will be data on Thailand's deficit reserves.
00:55Then, there will be data on India's trade surplus.
00:59Meanwhile, from the US, there will be data on reserve positions in the Federal Reserve Bank
01:03and on retail sales in the US in the month of January.
01:09Next, we will look at the opening of Asia's major exchanges this morning.
01:15Next, we will look at the opening of Asia's major exchanges this morning.
01:21Next, we will look at the opening of Asia's major exchanges this morning.
01:24Next, we will look at the opening of Asia's major exchanges this morning.
01:38We are sorry for the data error that we have displayed on the screen.
01:43We are sorry for the data error that we have displayed on the screen.
01:44We are sorry for the data error that we have displayed on the screen.
01:48We will discuss this morning with Mr. Mohamad Thorik Fadillah,
01:54Research Analyst, PT Lotus Andalan Sekurita.
01:56Good morning, Mr. Thorik.
01:58Good morning, Mr. Wigi.
02:00Thank you for joining us on MarketBuzz.
02:02Thank you for joining us on MarketBuzz.
02:03I hope you are well, Mr. Thorik.
02:04I hope you are well, Mr. Thorik.
02:05One topic that we will discuss is the possibility of a trade war between Russia and Ukraine.
02:10One topic that we will discuss is the possibility of a trade war between Russia and Ukraine.
02:13When the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is over,
02:18the sanctions imposed by the United States on oil from Russia will be lifted,
02:23and it is possible that Russia's oil will re-populate the global oil market.
02:28There will be oversupply, the price of oil will fall.
02:31Before we discuss the significance of this issue on the domestic market,
02:37what is your analysis, Mr. Thorik?
02:39Thank you, Mr. Wigi.
02:41If we look at the price of oil in the world,
02:45it is also influenced by the end of the war between Russia and Ukraine,
02:50which is likely to cause the lifting of the sanctions imposed by the United States on Russian oil,
02:55which is likely to increase the oil supply globally.
02:59If Russia and Ukraine are peaceful, the sanctions will be lifted,
03:04so that Russia, as one of the largest oil producers in the world,
03:08can re-increase its production to the level before there is inflation between Russia and Ukraine.
03:16If there is a lot of supply, of course the price will be maintained.
03:20Because if you look at today's trade,
03:23the price of crude oil is in the range of 71.38 USD per barrel.
03:29If there is a lot of supply, there will definitely be a lot of demand,
03:34then I think the price will be maintained below 70.
03:39In addition, what I see is one of the steps for the US President's economic strategy,
03:49which is Donald Trump.
03:51As we know, in a statement last January,
03:55it can also be said that Donald Trump stated that the United States is facing an energy emergency.
04:01One of the energy emergencies is the focus on crude oil prices.
04:06Why is the price of crude oil the focus of Donald Trump?
04:11Because I believe that the high inflation rate in the United States
04:17is also caused by the high price of fuel.
04:23With that target, with that mission,
04:27the supply of crude oil will automatically increase,
04:31the price will be cheaper,
04:33so the people in the United States are also cheaper to buy fuel,
04:37so this also enters the target that the inflation in the United States
04:42will reach the 2% level according to the target of the Fed.
04:45So the correlation between the US economic policy
04:50and the peace between Russia and Ukraine is very close.
04:54Okay, so the efforts of the United States to mediate peace between Russia and Ukraine
05:00returns to the economic interests of the United States itself, right?
05:04Correct.
05:05Okay, good.
05:06What do you think is the implication of the domestic market?
05:09How does this ultimately affect your review of Samsung's energy-based
05:15historic review of the price of crude oil?
05:19Okay, if you look at it, the price of crude oil actually has a negative impact
05:24on energy stocks, of course, both on the global stock market and domestically.
05:29Well, energy stocks are also back under pressure
05:33due to the expectation of an increase in oil imports from Russia,
05:36which was previously held or sanctioned by the United States.
05:40Next, there is also uncertainty from OPEC+,
05:44which may also adjust its production policy to maintain market balance.
05:48So it can be said that energy sector stocks,
05:51although this is a positive sentiment too,
05:54because of the peace between Russia and Ukraine,
05:56but in terms of implications for energy stocks,
05:59it has a negative connotation.
06:01Why?
06:02Because, of course, energy stocks already have stocks with high prices,
06:08crude oil stocks, for example.
06:11Then, when there is peace between Russia and Ukraine,
06:15the price will also drop.
06:17Well, automatically, it has quite a lot of differences.
06:21And of course, it will affect the company's stock price,
06:25or the price of the selling stock.
06:28So, of course, this will have a significant impact
06:30on the financial performance of the energy sector stocks,
06:34as well as the commodity, more or less.
06:37Okay, there are more or less two quite major influences,
06:43related to the possibility of peace between Russia and Ukraine.
06:46Among them is a decrease in the price of crude oil,
06:48then also the strengthening of the exchange rate value
06:51in the US dollar itself, which then weakens.
06:54How far will these two sentiments affect
06:58the movement of the ESG at the end of this week, Mr. Thorik?
07:02Actually, if the USD and IDR experience a strengthening,
07:09and our currency also experiences a strengthening,
07:11it actually makes sense.
07:13Why? Because, as we know,
07:15in the past, the Rupiah was in a downtrend condition,
07:20or was experiencing a weakness.
07:22So, if it experiences a fairly thin strengthening,
07:24it is very normal.
07:26Especially if we look at the technical view,
07:29the Rupiah currency is in a sideways condition,
07:32in a minor trend.
07:33So, there is a probability that it will experience a decrease,
07:36will experience a strengthening up to 16,275.
07:40So, more or less like that.
07:41Now, the implications for the IHSG?
07:43Actually, the IHSG right now,
07:46I actually see it not too focused on the global market.
07:49Why?
07:50As we know,
07:52the Wall Street Index is in an all-time high condition,
07:55even though there is uncertainty
07:57in the economic policy in the Donald Trump era.
08:00But, even though Wall Street is experiencing a strengthening,
08:03even though the tendency is still at the all-time high level,
08:06it does not apply to the IHSG.
08:08Why?
08:09In fact, the IHSG is focused on the uncertainty
08:12of the economic policy in the domestic market.
08:15Okay, it means that there are domestic issues
08:18that actually, if we look at it from the domestic market itself,
08:23this may be more influential to the movement of the IHSG.
08:28Is that right, Torik?
08:30Correct.
08:31Okay, good.
08:32If we look at the IHSG itself,
08:34it is closed in the red zone,
08:36while on Thursday, it dropped 32.21 points,
08:38or 0.48%, to the level of 6,613.56.
08:42And those who drive among them are
08:45Brand, which then dropped 2.39%,
08:50Chuan, dropped 5.05%,
08:52and also Satria Antaran Prima or SAPX,
08:55which dropped 24.74%.
08:58How far has this become a stock
09:02that has recently been targeted
09:07to be released first by investors,
09:10and cumulatively,
09:11does this affect the weakness of the IHSG, Torik?
09:15Actually, if we look at it,
09:17the IHSG has experienced a weakness of up to 0.48%.
09:22For a while, the IHSG has been in the negative zone,
09:27still experiencing a weakness of around 3.69%.
09:30Then it can also be said,
09:32foreign net sales for a week are still quite high,
09:35at 2.69 trillion rupiah.
09:37What causes the weakness of the IHSG,
09:39of course, again,
09:40actually to conglomerate stocks or large banks.
09:43As we know,
09:44for example, in the conglomerate stock,
09:47owned by Prajogo Pangestu,
09:48such as Brand, Chuan,
09:49failed to be included in the MSCI in February 2025.
09:54Previously, Euphoria stock brokers
09:57raised the price of the stock
09:59to be included in the MSCI index.
10:04However, according to MSCI,
10:06it failed to be included in the MSCI index.
10:09So it is indeed,
10:11actually, again,
10:13it is speculation by the brokers.
10:15Since then, the negative sentiment has circulated.
10:17In fact, brokers are still taking profits.
10:20That's why in the news,
10:23such as Bredar, Chuan, PTRO, TPIA,
10:26and Brand experienced significant weakness,
10:28even into the ARB zone.
10:30In addition, the banking sector also experienced a weakness,
10:34it is also back again
10:35because it is not in line with the expectations of brokers
10:38in terms of financial performance.
10:39Why?
10:40Because the clean interest rate, BMRI,
10:42only increased by about 1%, if I'm not mistaken.
10:44BMI only 2%,
10:46and even BBRI is only 0.1%.
10:48Well, that's actually,
10:51it is far below the expectations of brokers or investors.
10:54Because it is hoped that there will be a significant increase
10:58that has an impact on dividends.
11:00That's an important connotation.
11:02Now, for example,
11:03looking at the brands,
11:05Chuan or SAPX, if I'm not mistaken,
11:09experienced a weakness.
11:11Actually, my focus on the brands and Chuan
11:13actually has a similar connotation.
11:15The correlation is,
11:16if the brand experiences a weakness,
11:18then Chuan, PTRO, TPIA, or Prajogo, Panggis, etc.
11:21will also experience a weakness.
11:23Well, for SAPX,
11:24I think this brand has quite a high polarity.
11:28Often there is ARA or ARB.
11:30So indeed,
11:31SAPX, in terms of connotation,
11:34may be fried more or less.
11:37Because I don't have a positive sentiment.
11:40Yes, it means that there are sentiments
11:41that are below the expectations of brokers,
11:45so that the market players let go of the sentiments
11:48that were related to earlier.
11:50Sentiments to you,
11:51and also the work of banks
11:53that are not in line with expectations.
11:54Okay, we'll take a look at the data
11:56from this morning's ASEAN main stock market.
11:59As you can see on the live television
12:01for the ASEAN main stock market,
12:03this morning was opened mixed with Nikkei,
12:06opened to a 0.62% weakness at level 39,218.
12:09Singapore's SDI was opened to a 0.32% weakness
12:12at level 3,870.
12:14Korea's KOSPI was opened to a 0.33% weakness
12:17at level 2,591.
12:19And Hong Kong's Hang Seng was opened to a 0.98% weakness
12:24at level 22,027.