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00:00The favorite in the market is on Patrick Mahomes at a plus 120 price.
00:05Saquon Barkley at plus 250 in front of the Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts at plus 350.
00:12And then this drops down to really anything else is a long shot.
00:1614 to 1, Kelsey would really be his own tier.
00:19And now you're at 33 to 1 on Xavier Worthy and A.J. Brown.
00:23Then you get another level, Devonta Smith, Kareem Hunt, Chris Jones, Hollywood Brown.
00:28And then it's 101 or greater as you start to get deeper and deeper down the board.
00:35I'll ask.
00:36I'll start with this.
00:38If Kansas City wins, Donnie, do you think any bet outside of Mahomes is a wasted ticket?
00:45Everything will be a wasted ticket.
00:46And the reason I say that is it would be a catastrophic failure by the Philadelphia
00:50Eagles to lose this football game and Patrick Mahomes not be the best player in this.
00:54I mean, what happened?
00:55Strip sack fumbles all over the place.
00:57Kareem Hunt, 16 carries for 278 and four touchdowns.
01:00What needs to happen for Kansas City outside of Patrick Mahomes?
01:03So for me, I actually look at this, Joe, as like the price points here.
01:06Patrick Mahomes to win MVP is about a plus 120, let's call it here.
01:10I don't see any way, shape, or form they can win this football game without him winning that,
01:13which means you get the extra 20 to 30 cents, depending on the juice that you're laying at
01:17that point.
01:17But to Kevin's initial question, again, there's so many ways you can look at this football game.
01:21I can't see Kansas City winning this game without Mahomes winning the MVP.
01:26I agree with you.
01:27I would just say the only other name I would throw out potentially on the KC side is if
01:32Kelsey has a big game because it's a recognizable name.
01:36And we saw this play out potentially with the Stafford situation with Cooper Cup,
01:42right, where Cup steps up and catches the touchdown and sort of steals it from Stafford.
01:47And I know it's a different type of situation.
01:50We're talking about potentially the greatest quarterback modern day and going up for his
01:55fourth potential Super Bowl.
01:56But I would say Kelsey would be the only one outside.
01:59You have a bunch of household names on Kansas City, right, meaning like non-household names,
02:04right, outside of Kelsey.
02:06I mean, Kareem Hunt would have to have a super day.
02:08DeAndre Hopkins would have to, you know, 180 yards, too.
02:12I mean, we're talking about dynamic performances.
02:16I would just say this, though.
02:18What Donnie said kind of tips the scales to me in that if the Eagles lose this game and
02:25it doesn't go to Mahomes, that would actually somehow be more gut-wrenching, even if I don't
02:29think Pat's going to have that type of day.
02:31What I would add on top of that, though, is if you had to give out an MVP for the Chiefs
02:34victory against the Texans, I don't think Pat is in the top two options.
02:40I think Kelsey's seven for 117 and a score beats out Mahomes' 177 and a touchdown with
02:46no interceptions.
02:47And I think due to the dominance of the defense, Carloftis' three sacks would have been...
02:52Now, you completely mitigate the point, Donnie, once you say, right.
02:58But again, are the Eagles going to look anything near what Houston looked like?
03:03And I think that that's very unlikely.
03:05So I think it's a point well taken.
03:06I will say the quarterback position, it is obviously the position it goes to very frequently.
03:14I feel as if maybe not as frequent as you would think.
03:1933 of 58 is about 56 percent, right?
03:25That's like minus 130 if you take kind of the implied odds of it all, right?
03:30Where if I would say, ah, what's it to go to a quarterback?
03:32Minus 300?
03:33Well, it should be.
03:34It must always go to a quarterback.
03:36And one thing that I thought was a little interesting, but since it was 1983, so from
03:41Super Bowl 17 on, I believe it would be, we have seen quarterbacks win it three consecutive
03:47times or better just once.
03:49There was a stretch from 2010 to 2013 where we had four consecutive quarterbacks.
03:54We've seen QB come in two straight years.
03:58So it wouldn't, I have been tempted by the any other, which is plus 135 on Fandul.
04:06Caesars had a plus 145.
04:07Basically, this award isn't going to go to a quarterback.
04:11And one of the more encouraging aspects of that bet for me is right now, I think it's
04:16going to go to Saquon Barkley.
04:17No, it's a great look.
04:19That's why he's priced ahead of Jalen Hurts, right?
04:21What was he at the start when they first put out the odds?
04:23He was plus 250.
04:25Hurts was 310, right?
04:26You know what's funny though, Joe?
04:28That didn't actually flip until the LA game.
04:32They had Hurts booked with a little bit of distance in front of Saquon Barkley.
04:35It reminded me of the debate last year, kind of where you guys are like, yeah, look, they're
04:40going to give it to McCaffrey.
04:41I'm like, nah, the quarterbacks, the quarterbacks, the quarterbacks.
04:43But even in that moment, the Purdy-McCaffrey numbers were very close, right?
04:48It started out with a much bigger gap for Jalen in front of Saquon, and now Saquon is
04:53comfortable.
04:54You can't find a book where they have the same number.
04:56Comfortably, it is Saquon in front of Jalen.
04:58It is, and let's just say he does what you think he's going to do, and let's just say
05:02breaks the single-season, post-season record, maybe potentially challenges Timmy Smith's
05:08record of what, 205, 204?
05:11I mean, that's a performance that's second to none, right?
05:14And the body of work, knowing what he has meant to this team, a 2,000-yard rusher, it's
05:20great value.
05:21I, it's not a market I'm going to be betting all in, right?
05:25I might sprinkle a little.
05:26I will say this, for me, if we're looking for deep shots, I like defense.
05:32You know, and again, we talk about Devin White's performance a few years ago, deserving
05:38potentially of the MVP.
05:40I would take a shot on Jalen Carter and some maybe, Zach Vaughn, who's been very active,
05:45interceptions, maybe a pick six, you know, and obviously a game-changer.
05:49And I'll throw out a name, and it's just a name if you want to take the lottery ticket,
05:53Cooper Dejean.
05:54And the reason why I say that, starting defensive back, you have the potential for a pick six
06:00or let's say a key interception, and he returns kicks.
06:04So we know how special teams, he's 120, I believe, to one.
06:08More than that.
06:08More, 200 to one, something like that.
06:10Yeah, just to piggyback off you, I think it's a great look.
06:12Like right now, Fandul, 200 to one from the MVP, but I want to pick up on Joe's point
06:16there, the chance for the pick six and also the, well, special teamers don't get it.
06:201990s, was it Desmond Howard?
06:21Yeah.
06:22Had a Super Bowl MVP because he returned one.
06:24Take a look at Remigio here, one of the kick returners for Kansas City, 600 to one.
06:28Will Shipley returns kicks, 750 to one.
06:31We're not saying you're putting a lot of money down, but you want to talk about two or three
06:34dollars down on some of those guys.
06:35The possibility of returning a kick in a sloppy football game, you get moved right up top.
06:40Yeah, and Dejean, for me, he's doing it both, right?
06:42Because he returns kicks and he's a starting defensive back.
06:45You get the double boost in that matter.
06:48You're only going to do it if you do something like that anyway.