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00:00Let's start off with Mahomes' passing yards,
00:03which is set at 251 and a half.
00:06A lot of experience at the Super Bowl.
00:07Generally, Joe, Mahomes has gone under this number
00:10for a lot of the regular season,
00:12but this is not the regular season.
00:13This is the playoffs.
00:14In fact, on our fantasy shows, we got to about,
00:18I'm sure you did with Matt and George and I too,
00:20we got to about week three and it was like,
00:22do you start Mahomes anymore in fantasy?
00:24Then in week six, it was like,
00:25I'm not starting Mahomes in fantasy anymore.
00:29If he has over 250 yards,
00:30I think the Chiefs are going to win this game.
00:33Here's the problem.
00:34I think you can have under and they can still win.
00:36And to me, that's why this is a stay away.
00:38I think this 251 is a really good number.
00:40I don't think it portends one way to the other,
00:43which way you think this game is going to go.
00:45Cause I could see a world where he's at 240 something
00:47and they win this game easily,
00:48or if he's at 270 something
00:49and they lose this game potentially.
00:50So to me, this specific one, when it comes to Mahomes,
00:53I'm out on the passing.
00:54I do like some Mahomes props here though individually,
00:58but this one's not it for me.
00:59George, you want to go over
01:00or under the 251 and a half for him?
01:03I mean, as I've said several times,
01:05I have a lot of Mahomes props.
01:07I think I have six props involving Mahomes directly here.
01:10Attempts, completions, throwing an interception,
01:11getting sacked.
01:13I have a small play on the over.
01:15I do not love it.
01:16All right.
01:17For many of the reasons Joe mentioned here,
01:19but because I don't think they're going to be able
01:21to run the ball.
01:21I think he's going to drop the ball.
01:22I think he's going to drop back 40 plus times.
01:24I don't think he has a choice here.
01:26And that, therefore, he should be able to make this,
01:29but they're a team that does not throw large.
01:31I mean, they don't throw deep into the secondary.
01:32They throw short passes.
01:34What Mahomes has done all season long,
01:35especially since Rice has been out.
01:37And I think that continues today.
01:38So I think if he gets, I think the number's right.
01:41To get this, he's not going to crush.
01:43He'll get 262, something like that.
01:45I also think they'll be trailing in the second half.
01:47So he's got to throw the ball more here.
01:49So I do have the over, but it's a small play.
01:51Out of all my Mahomes props,
01:53this is one of my least favorite.
01:55Yeah, pass for me on this.
01:56Now, as far as the passing touchdowns are concerned,
02:00you are minus 165 on the over
02:04one and a half passing touchdowns.
02:06If Mahomes throws less than two touchdowns,
02:08your $100 bet gets you 135.
02:11George, we'll switch it up and start with you here.
02:15So, I mean, your lean is toward Philadelphia in this game.
02:20So is this a prop for you where you have
02:22under one and a half passing touchdowns, plus 135?
02:26I didn't play it.
02:27All right.
02:28I don't, I said, I think Casey scores three at most.
02:31I think I want Mahomes to run one in.
02:33All right.
02:34That's where the big money is,
02:35where Joe and I get a four to one here.
02:36So that's what I'm really hoping for there.
02:38It wouldn't, as much as I don't think Pacheco and Hunt
02:41are going to do very well,
02:41it wouldn't shock me if Hunt runs one as well.
02:43We saw that last week versus Buffalo here.
02:45I just don't, I don't think they score enough here
02:47where it's worth the minus 165.
02:50All right.
02:51I don't like the price.
02:51It's a little better.
02:52I might think about it here,
02:53but this is not one of my Mahomes props.
02:57Yeah.
02:58This is the juice.
02:59I mean, at the end of the day,
02:59it's almost minus 170 in some spots here
03:01for Patrick Mahomes on the over one and a half passing.
03:04So the value is on the under, the variance is too much.
03:08Patrick Mahomes, again,
03:09I think the best way to invest in him
03:11is actually with the legs today.
03:12I mentioned that rushing prop for him
03:14to the anytime touchdown plus 400, that's a great return.
03:17And I think the yardage is going to come up again.
03:18I know we're going to talk about that in a second,
03:20but I keep talking about like,
03:22we're talking about X's and O's here
03:22and talking about what this game plays out to be.
03:25And I keep coming back to the same thing
03:26over and over and over again.
03:28And I just think it's logical where pressure up front,
03:31corners locking down.
03:32What do you have to do?
03:34You got to get out in space and make things happen.
03:36Now, Patrick Mahomes is also one of the best,
03:38I think, improvisers that we've ever seen in the NFL,
03:41not just in terms of the way he throws the football times,
03:43but getting out there flush from the pocket and making plays.
03:46And that's, what's dangerous about the yardage.
03:48He could get out of the pocket and run.
03:50Like I think he's going to.
03:52He could also get out of the pocket,
03:53find some open Xavier Worthy,
03:55find some open Hollywood Brown,
03:56which is a wrinkle in this offense.
03:58We don't have a lot of experience with,
03:59which is another variable to keep
04:01really close attention on today.
04:02Like, is Hollywood Brown an impact player in this game?
04:05Probably not.
04:06But at the end of the day,
04:07if we all looked up and said that was the guy
04:08that actually led the Chiefs in receiving yards,
04:10would it really shock any of us?
04:13Let's, Luke, let's go over to those rushing yards,
04:16by the way, from Mahomes, as Joe alluded to here.
04:18I want to touch on this real quick.
04:1929 and a half here is the number,
04:22at minus 110 on both sides, by the way.
04:24And Joe, that is, to me, maybe more of the determiner
04:29as to how the Chiefs end up doing,
04:30because it does feel like when Mahomes has a big run,
04:34whether it's down the sidelines,
04:35going out of bounds, going in the end zone,
04:37that's like the signature moment of every Chiefs game.
04:40Isn't it?
04:41The shock that the Mahomes from three years ago,
04:44who used to run all the time, is now picking his spots,
04:48but it's usually a long run.
04:50So not only do I maybe lean toward
04:53the over of 29 and a half here,
04:55his longest rush to me, too,
04:57would be something to take a look at.
04:59Yeah, it is.
05:00And what's interesting, too,
05:01is I locked this in at the 29 and a half,
05:02and some folks already have it at 31.
05:04I do like Mahomes to throw a pick, though, too.
05:07That is one thing that he has done sometimes.
05:09Sometimes he does get a little fast and loose
05:10with the football, try to do too much.
05:13He has five picks in the Super Bowls he's played,
05:15so it's not impossible there.
05:16So you're getting even money on that.
05:17But to me, I keep coming back to this one
05:19and the fact that it was 29 and moved up to 31
05:21tells me that a lot of people are starting to see it
05:23the same way I am,
05:24which is that we're looking at Mahomes
05:25to take off, run, make plays.
05:27If you're in third and long, guess what?
05:29Patrick Mahomes rushing for 15 yards is not absurd.
05:32And if he gets one of those,
05:33just one of those kind of moments,
05:35he's already halfway there, Craig.
05:37And then, of course, if you have an overtime game,
05:38because it's a closed game, guess what?
05:40That's more volume for Mahomes
05:41with the football in his hands.
05:42So to me, this is one I like a lot.
05:44George, when you're looking at Mahomes rushing totals,
05:47where I stand, where do you stand?
05:49Yeah, I'm on the over as well.
05:51Now, this is where variance comes in, by the way.
05:53You bet you've seen some books at 31 and a half.
05:55I got it at 28 and a half.
05:56I was one of the first props I took here.
05:59Right now, it's at 27 and a half on the New York book.
06:02I'm actually thinking about doubling down on it,
06:04taking it again, then it went down a yard.
06:05I'm shocked it went down a yard.
06:07Once again, I think he's gonna drop back 40 times.
06:10The pass rush is going to be there for Philadelphia.
06:12He's going to have to take off sometimes.
06:14He's going to feel the need.
06:15I got to move the chains here.
06:17No one's open.
06:18I got to move the chains.
06:19I think he'll get as long as Royal Rush as well.
06:21So yes, I'm all over this.
06:22And like I said, I'm thinking about doubling down here,
06:24taking the over 27 and a half.
06:26It's the first time I've looked at it today,
06:27and I can't believe it actually went down a yard.
06:30It was at 29.
06:31It's actually gone down two yards
06:32from what it was last night.