It's been a difficult season to say the least for Pep Guardiola and Manchester City so far... With their top four hopes hanging in the balance, one of the main reasons for their sluggish start is a thin squad with lack of reinforcements; particularly with the summer sale of Julian Alvarez. However, one man is about to join who could change City's fortunes entirely - step forward, Omar Marmoush...
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00:00Hello, everybody. Adam Monk here from 442 from London. I'm currently fighting for my
00:10life because yesterday I paid £8.70 for a meal deal. Also, I know Adam clearly likes
00:15to do these videos stood up and all bouncing around, but if that was to happen for me and
00:19I stood up, this would happen. So yeah, can't really do much about that. But yeah, this
00:24video was going to be on the Forest-Liverpool game, but that game was boring. We know me
00:31and Adam through looking at the analytics that you lot are less likely to watch a video
00:35on a draw. So we'll swerve that one. If you want a quick analysis of that game, Forest,
00:41pretty good team. Liverpool, pretty good team. Chris Woods, very good. That rhymed. But yeah,
00:46sorry, Liverpool fans. You've got Mo Salah to thank for that and the miss at the death
00:50cleared off the line. And with that said, I think it's time to talk about a new Egyptian
00:54king. Was that accidental Peter Drury? I don't really know. It sounded poetic.
01:01So as for Manchester City, why are they spending so much money in the January transfer window?
01:06Well, let's start by just looking at this quickly. Yeah, they objectively stink. This
01:13is the opposition cross success rate, 35% City at the bottom there. And also City just
01:18block the fewest shots in general when teams get into their penalty area. So they really,
01:24really can't defend. So to address that, they're bringing in Abdukadir Kuchinov. Now,
01:31I'll level with you. If I sat here and pretended to know anything about that bloke or even
01:35that he existed a week ago, that would be the biggest lie since this video. We cannot
01:41replace him. We cannot. From what I've seen of Kuchinov, just to summarise him quickly,
01:46it would be GBH, just, just raw GBH, which going back to this graph, City clearly need.
01:53So instead, I'm going to talk about City's brand spanking new attacker, who can play
01:58centre forward and play off the left. And all he really has to do to impress in the
02:03second half of this season is score, I'd say, two goals. Because if you look around Erling
02:08Haaland, let's look at Jack Grealish, for example. Well, he scored one goal in the last
02:12calendar year. And to put that into context, that's one goal since the Willy Wonka experience
02:18in Glasgow was a thing, which seems like a bygone era. So Erling Haaland really does
02:23need some help. And don't get me wrong, he currently is doing very well. He scored one
02:28and assisted two last night in Frankfurt's win against Freiburg, which takes his tally
02:32to 20 goals and 14 assists in 26 games this season. That's 34 GA in 26 games to make
02:41it sound a little bit better. This guy is phenomenal. And just to double down on that,
02:45if you contextualise the game last night that Omar Mahmoud played for Eintracht Frankfurt,
02:49he knows he's joining Manchester City. That could be weighing on his mind. But no, one goal,
02:54two assists, 76 touches, 30 accurate passes, 88% pass accuracy, 11 ground rules won, which
03:01was the most in the game of any player, eight touches in the opposition box, six recoveries.
03:06He was fouled five times, which was the most of any player on the pitch, five successful
03:10dribbles, again, the most of any player on the pitch, and four chances created. So in short,
03:17he's good. Now quickly touching on the here and now, this is how Eintracht Frankfurt like to set
03:21up and did do last night against Freiburg. We won't focus on every player, although I will just
03:26mention this guy, Mario Götze. Now let me know this in the comments. I genuinely, genuinely
03:32thought this. I don't know if this is some weird Mandela effect kind of situation. I thought Götze
03:37would retire from football about two years ago until I then looked at the lineup last night
03:41and saw him starting in the middle. I knew he used to play for Frankfurt, but in my mind,
03:45that was like two seasons ago and he's hung his boots up early. I don't know who I've got him
03:49confused with, but genuinely, this took me off guard. Götze plays for Eintracht Frankfurt,
03:54but most importantly, so does Omar Mahmoud in the two up top with Hugo Ekotike, if I've said that
03:59right. And it's a bit of a little and large partnership akin to maybe what we might see
04:03between Mahmoud and Erling Haaland. And just to overlay Ekotike's heat map as well this season,
04:09here you can see he's very all action, involved on the left-hand side, involved on the right-hand
04:13side and involved centrally as well. So he's not really a number nine per se that sticks
04:18to his position. He likes to get across the front three, which is something Manchester
04:22City have been desperately lacking at the moment and also since Alvarez left.
04:26So let's talk about that. This is City's average lineup last season and often Julian Alvarez
04:31used to kind of on paper start in midfield, but he drifted into sort of that second striker area
04:36alongside Erling Haaland and often City in possession would end up shaping up like this,
04:41a 4-4-2 with Rodri rest in peace and Matteo Kovacic or Bernardo Silva joining him in the pivot.
04:47And it sometimes looked like this and then out of possession, it sometimes reverted to more of
04:51a 4-3-3 with Alvarez being able to defensively contribute. Now, if you overlay Alvarez's heat
04:56map for Manchester City last season, you can see here it does look very, very similar to Omar
05:02Mahmoud. He's involved on the left, involved on the right, but involved centrally as well.
05:05Likes to get across the entire front three. And if you think about City's current attackers,
05:10we know what Erling Haaland likes to do. His heat map is just a little blob. And then you've got
05:14Savino who likes to hug one side of the pitch. Doku likes to hug the other. Depending on what
05:18side they play, they can both do it on the right and the left-hand side, but they stick to that
05:22side. And then you've got Phil Foden who is more of a midfielder, really. He's less of a forward.
05:27I know he can sort of get involved in the goals, but City have been lacking in an all-action
05:31forward who gets involved in every area of the pitch. And I think Mahmoud gives them that back.
05:36Funnily enough as well, I think Pep's already tried to address this in the summer transfer
05:40window after Alvarez left by bringing Gundogan in on a free, but it's massively backfired. I
05:45think Pep's thinking was that when Haaland's injured, Gundogan can play false nine as Haaland's
05:50back up, much like he did so successfully three, four years ago. But that was three, four years ago.
05:55The man is now 34 years old. He probably spoke to the board in the summer, Ilkay Gundogan,
06:00and Cheeky probably said to him, you're going to play 30 games this season.
06:03And then when the entire squad dropped like flies, he just ended up standing in the centre
06:07circle like Tom Hanks on Omaha beach and saving Private Ryan. Just completely shell-shocked.
06:13So yeah, Mahmoud is set to come in. These are his average positions here. You can see mostly
06:17he likes to play centre forward, the striker role, but can also play on the left-hand side.
06:22So it gives City that much needed versatility. There you go. Video done. See you soon guys.
06:28No, but seriously, it's good that he can play left wing for City because it allows Pep to
06:31rotate Doca and Savino much more. We know right now, Jack Grealish isn't getting a look in.
06:36And as for James McAtee, well, as for Pep Guardiola, as we know, any child that is
06:42birthed through the academy must be banished into the shadow realm. So what else does he
06:46improve then for City? What's empirical? What can we numerically define that he will make
06:50Manchester City better at? Well, a very simple one is free kicks. He actually scored two consecutive
06:56free kicks in two consecutive matches on November the 2nd against VFL Bochum and November the 7th
07:01against Slavia Prague in the Europa League. And Manchester City's last direct free kick goal
07:06was in April last year. And it was a deflected goal by Phil Foden against Aston Villa. Wasn't
07:12even a proper free kick really. So of course he improves Manchester City in that area,
07:16but where's the nuance, Adam? Well, I'll tell you, let's compare him statistically to Erling
07:22Haaland. In terms of attacking numbers, Marmouche and Erling Haaland are actually very, very similar.
07:27Haaland scored 16 goals this season to Marmouche's 15. This is of course in the Bundesliga and the
07:32Premier League. Marmouche rather impressively though, massively outperforming is XG as opposed
07:37to Erling Haaland. Goals per game and shots per game are very, very similar. Haaland missing more
07:41big chances though from a closer range. And also they have the exact same goal conversion rate at
07:4719% this season. But this is what's most important. Now, if you consider the fact that Marmouche is a
07:52striker by trade, leads the line often for Frankfurt alongside someone else, look at the creative stats
07:58as opposed to Erling Haaland's. It's just a chasm, 9-1 up on assists. You know, 11 big chances created
08:04to two, but most importantly as well, his average touches per 90, Erling Haaland 23, Marmouche 47.8.
08:13So clearly he likes to just get on the ball more and be more all action and potentially be that
08:18link man from midfield to attack. One of the main criticisms of Erling Haaland, and I'm not sure
08:22whether it's justified or not, I think it might be more dependent on the lack of service he's had,
08:26is that when he doesn't have service and he's not involved in the game, he's just completely
08:30useless and impotent. Take this for example here, this is the fewest touches he's ever had in a
08:35Premier League game for City, and it was against Arsenal last season at the Etihad Stadium. And this
08:40has been happening for a while, I mean that's his fewest there with seven, but he only averages 23
08:44touches a game this season. I think Haaland now needs that middleman again, like he used to have
08:50in the treble winning season for City that was Kevin De Bruyne back in the day. He needs that
08:54man to link midfield, to attack, and play Haaland in a little bit more. I'm sorry, just play him in,
09:00like we've seen this so many times for Borussia Dortmund, I know it's a more expansive league,
09:05but Haaland was a bit of a roadrunner, he'd have balls slid in behind to him, and now he likes to
09:09sort of just linger at the back post. But he does need that middleman, take this goal for example
09:14back when he had one, this was against Arsenal the season prior to the game where he had seven
09:18touches. This opening goal that De Bruyne scored early on, a long ball to Haaland headed down,
09:23and you've got that player there in the pocket who can drive with the ball. De Bruyne can no
09:28longer do this because his legs have simply gone, Marmouche can because he's nearly 10 years
09:33younger. Now just to look at City's line-up from that Arsenal game back in 2023, on paper it'd look
09:39like a 4-3-3, but as we know John Stones would invert, Rodri had come here, Kyle Walker came
09:43across to form a back three, and it'd look something a little bit like this. But De Bruyne
09:49in that game really did play that second striker role and played off Erling Haaland, so he would
09:53come into these spaces and won the knockdown in this area of the pitch. But the goal itself
09:59is so explosive, it's individual brilliance by De Bruyne, and I know it's likely City are never
10:04going to get a De Bruyne again, that player simply doesn't exist and comes around once every
10:08generation. But De Bruyne's ability to carry the ball has waned since that season, he's 34 years
10:14old now, he physically can't do that. De Bruyne is averaging 2.6 progressive carries per 90 this
10:20season, compare that to Omar Mahmoud, who's is 3.96 per 90, he's carried the ball 67 times this
10:27season already. It's a massive upturn and it's simply about having fresher legs and a younger
10:32squad. Pep has let this squad get too old. Now how could this line-up for Manchester City this
10:37season? Well if we go with Stefan Ortega in goal, then a back four of, let's go with Rico Lewis,
10:42Ruben Diaz, Manwala Kanji, and for the sake of this I'll go with Nathan Ake for the sake of this,
10:47but of course it could be Vardyol, you never know what Pep's going to play right. But Rico Lewis
10:51could invert, you could then form a back three here, using the Kanji, Diaz, and Ake, and then
10:56yes of course Rodri right now doesn't exist. So you could go with Rico Lewis, Matteo Kovacic,
11:02Marmouche, and then maybe someone like Bernardo Silva, who's got a bit more bite in that midfield,
11:06and if you swap Marmouche for De Bruyne in that system right now, and of course by the way it's
11:11like Foden and Savino out wide, Haaland up top, then it loses its legs massively and that ability
11:17to sustain the ball high up the pitch, that death by a thousand passes style of play that we know
11:22City like to play, they've not been able to do that as effectively this season and they get picked
11:27off in transition way way way too much, and Marmouche could help keep the ball up there,
11:31carry it forward, and just sustain that pressure by adding fresher legs and a younger face. Pep
11:36really doesn't have an answer to Rodri's absence with the current players in his team at his
11:40disposal, so that's why I think he's signing a centre-back and a striker to sort of bridge that
11:45gap and revert back to a system like this, that can sustain the ball higher up the pitch and
11:50concede less turnovers, and Kuchinov of course is a very very aggressive defender, if he was to play
11:56you know at right or left centre-back he's very aggressive in the 50-50, so he'd be able to snuff
12:00out any transitions that may or may not happen in this system, I just think it's a way that Pep can
12:07revert back to the ways of old without necessarily needing Rodri, if you know what I mean.
12:12And finally to talk about his goal scoring acumen, well Erling Haaland gets criticised for
12:16being a one-dimensional striker or a goal hogger, I mean people talk about Erling Haaland like he's
12:21playing a game of Wembley doubles at Power League, it is very very disrespectful, but I guess they
12:26also do kind of have a point. In terms of the way he attacks crosses, this is something that really
12:31does frustrate me, if you cast your mind back to the days of Sergio Aguero, he used to score so
12:36many goals getting in front of the centre-back and scoring at the near post, you know, nicking it
12:41in front of the centre-back and sliding it past the keeper or slamming it in the roof of the net
12:45like here against Liverpool. Now what Erling Haaland likes to do, which is somewhat understandable
12:50because of how tall and lanky he is, is linger and hang at the back post, you look at this goal here
12:54against Sheffield United, this is an atypical example, but he likes to do this a lot, he very
12:59very rarely varies the way he attacks crosses, crosses now often for City are just chipped and
13:04dinked to the back post and it's getting a little bit predictable, we need someone to come in and
13:09spice it up with a little bit of attacking variation. Now you remember Marmouche's heat
13:13map from the start of the video, I think this is very very key for Marmouche's understated ability
13:18to vary the way he attacks the penalty area, you take this goal here for example, this is the first
13:24one I wanted to show you because it's him being patient and lingering off the left-hand side at
13:28the back post, he's not necessarily making a run, he's just knowing where the space is and waiting
13:33for his moment, this is an understated attribute for any attacker. The second goal here though is
13:38very Erling Haaland-esque in the sense that he attacks the six-yard box on the break, it's a
13:42direct run and it's a lovely chip over the keeper as well, his actual skill, his techers is very
13:48understated too, but yeah this goal is very atypical of someone who finishes the moves off
13:53and leads the line so to speak, so he's also got that in his locker too. Something else I think
13:57City have been missing for probably since the days of Riyad Mahrez is a goal like this one right here,
14:02the ability to manipulate the movement of a defender with quick feet and changing of direction,
14:07Phil Foden can do it a little bit, I think Savino probably can too, but he's finding his feet,
14:12he's five years younger than Marmouche, Marmouche is ready-made now 25 and he's been doing this
14:16on a consistent basis, he can dribble with the ball which is something that I think Pepper's
14:22tried to bring in in the last couple of years but maybe unsuccessfully, we know Docu's a very good
14:261v1 dribbler but he just don't have the end product. But one last clip, the clip that I
14:31think trumps all in terms of what Manchester City need to get out of this guy is this clip
14:36right here against none other than Bayern Munich as well, it is an offside goal but the ball gets
14:41pinged into his feet and it's his touch to get it out of his feet and create a goal-scoring chance.
14:46Number 36 here will absolutely pay for his sins because Marmouche would have got on the end of
14:50this ball and of course would have been onside but the way that one touch takes two defenders
14:55out the game and puts him through on goal from a position where it just didn't look possible
14:59a mere fraction of a second earlier is so, so important because to be honest Erling Haaland
15:05and it's not his fault because of how big he is, he can't get the ball out his feet so you can't really
15:09play a direct pass. The ability to get that ball out of his feet so quickly and create a
15:13goal-scoring chance is just absolutely, it's gold dust, it's absolute gold dust at the top level.
15:19So yes that's Omar Marmouche, Manchester City's new man, the Egyptian prince I guess, I guess
15:25that's the respectful name for him until Salah leaves the league and Salah's chasing a
15:30ballon d'or but if you actually tell Omar Marmouche that there's a there's a right side of
15:35the goal that he can score in then maybe he'll win a ballon d'or too. Anyway guys yes I hope
15:42you enjoyed the video and have a lovely rest of your week but yes guys don't forget to subscribe
15:48and I will see you very, very soon. I've been Adam Monk, take care, goodbye.