BPS mencatat indeks harga konsumen (IHK) pada Januari 2025 mengalami deflasi 0,76%. BPS menyatakan deflasi bulanan pada Januari merupakan deflasi pertama setelah terakhir kali terjadi pada September 2024 lalu.
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00:00Thank you, Mr. Sanda, for joining us again.
00:07BPS reported that the consumer price index in January 2025 experienced a deflation of 0.76 percent.
00:14BPS stated that the monthly deflation in January was the first deflation after the last time it happened in September 2024.
00:22BPS reported that the consumer price index in January 2025 experienced a deflation of 0.76 percent.
00:35BPS reported that the consumer price index decreased from 106.80% in December 2024 to 105.99% in January 2025.
00:44Meanwhile, annually, inflation was 0.76 percent.
00:50In January 2025, monthlyly and on a year-to-date calendar, inflation was 0.76 percent.
01:02BPS reported that the consumer price index decreased from 106.80% in December 2024 to 105.99% in January 2025.
01:18In January, the monthly, monthly and year-to-date calendar will be the same because the comparison is the same, namely in January 2025.
01:30Meanwhile, annually, inflation was 0.76 percent.
01:40BPS said that the monthly deflation in January 2025 was the first deflation after the last time it happened in September 2024.
01:49However, the group of contributors to the largest monthly deflation in January is from the household, water, electricity, and firewood group with a deflation of 9.16 percent
01:59and a deflation rate of minus 1.44 percent.
02:03Covered by IDX Channel
02:09The monthly deflation in January 2025 was 0.76 percent. This is the deepest since 26 years ago.
02:17Remembering the previous highest deflation was printed in August 1999 with a deflation of 0.93 percent.
02:26In addition, the monthly deflation in January 2025 was the first deflation after the last time it happened in September 2024.
02:35BPS reported that in January 2025, there were 34 provinces that recorded deflation, while the other four experienced inflation.
02:43The four provinces are Riau, Papua, Punggungan, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra.
02:51The deepest deflation was in West Papua, which reached 29 percent, while the highest inflation was in Riau, 0.43 percent.
03:02BPS noted that the group of contributors to the largest monthly deflation is from the household, water, electricity, and household firewood
03:10with a deflation rate of 9.16 percent and a deflation rate of minus 1.44 percent.
03:18Another commodity that has a share in the deflation is the rate of train and air transportation, with a share of inflation of 0.01 percent.
03:29Next, the monthly deflation in January 2025, where BPS stated that it was also pushed by the 50% electricity tariff discount policy
03:39which was implemented in January and February 2025.
03:42So, how big is the Pemirsa's decision to take the electricity tariff discount against the January deflation rate?
03:47Let's look at the following information.
03:54Badan Pusat Statistik stated that the electricity tariff discount was the main cause of deflation in early 2025.
04:00BPS said that in January 2025, the electricity tariff experienced a deflation of 32.03 percent and gave a deflation rate of 1.47 percent.
04:13Peltek Kepala BPS Amalia Dininggar Widyasanti explained the discount tariff including electricity
04:17which was given by the government included in the BPS inflation calculation.
04:22This is in accordance with the manual consumer price index guidance which is also applied in many world statistics offices.
04:28What is the impact of the electricity tariff discount on the economy?
04:32In January 2025, the electricity tariff experienced a deflation of 32.03 percent and gave a deflation rate of 1.47 percent
04:47As I mentioned earlier, this deflation resulted in a discount of 50 percent for customers with electricity
04:59up to 2,200 volts ampere in January 2025.
05:06Historically, if we look at the last five years,
05:11the electricity tariff change also happened in July and August 2022.
05:22As is known based on BPS data,
05:24in terms of months and calendar years, there was a deflation of 0.76 percent in January 2025.
05:30The largest monthly deflation donors are households, water, electricity and household firewoods with a deflation rate of 9.16 percent.
05:41This is covered by IDX Channel.
05:48The donors estimated that the deflation that occurred in January 2025 was 0.76 percent
05:59which is a monthly phenomenon.
06:03The Chairperson of the Indonesian Entrepreneurs Association, Sinta Kamdani, said that the deflation that occurred in January 2025
06:10was an artificial phenomenon caused by the government's intervention in the electricity price discount policy.
06:17The Chairperson of the Indonesian Entrepreneurs Association, Sinta Kamdani, believed that the possibility of a large deflation would not occur
06:21if the electricity subsidy is terminated
06:24because other major price components still show inflation or a low price increase.
06:30He also stated that the possibility of inflation will rebound to the government target level
06:352.5 plus minus 1 percent in February or March 2025
06:39if there is no other intervention from the government that can trigger a further deflation
06:43such as the electricity price discount a few years ago.
06:47Moreover, Indonesia will also approach a high consumption momentum, namely Ramadan and Eid, which usually will boost inflation.
06:55Meanwhile, the Chairperson of the Indonesian Entrepreneurs Association, Sinta Kamdani, noted a deflation again at the beginning of 2025.
06:59A number of economists say that the deflation that occurred indicates a pressure on the economy and the weakness of people's purchasing power.
07:07To get a clearer picture of this, here is the information.
07:16A number of economists estimate a deflation of 0.76 percent per month in January 2025
07:22indicates a pressure on Indonesia's economy.
07:26Economic Institute for Development of Economics and Finance or INDEF, Rizal Taufiqur Rahman said
07:31in general, deflation can be an indication of a weakening of people's purchasing power,
07:35especially if it is caused by a decrease in aggregate demand due to economic uncertainty or income stagnation.
07:41He said that if this deflation trend continues, it can have a negative impact on economic growth.
07:48At the same time, the Director-Executive of the Center for Economic and Law Studies or CELIOS, Bima Yudhistira, estimated
07:53deflation does not only occur because of a 50 percent electricity tariff discount for January and February 2025.
07:59According to him, the electricity tariff discount can actually be compensated by shopping for people
08:04which increases inflation in the food and beverage sector, transportation, and real wear.
08:09So Bima estimates the lowest monthly deflation since September 1999
08:14is more due to the weakening of people's purchasing power.
08:19Previously, BPS reported that deflation in January 2025 reached 0.76 percent monthly.
08:25BPS noted that deflation in January 2025 was pushed by a decrease in electricity tariffs
08:30which experienced a deflation of 32.03 percent with a profit of 1.47 percent.
08:37IDX Channel coverage team
08:44Although economists estimate the deflation that occurs in January is not purely due to the existence of electricity tariff discounts,
08:50however, the government in this matter, the Ministry of Finance, is actually confident
08:53that taking electricity discounts for the January 2025 deflation
08:57is proof of the positive impact of the program on the national economy.
09:01The head of the Ministry of Finance's fiscal policy body, Fabrio Kacaribu,
09:04explained that the policy of the 50% electricity discount program
09:08is part of the government's program to maintain people's purchasing power and promote economic activity.
09:14Meanwhile, on the other hand, economists say at least there are two preferences of people
09:20which cause a decrease in inflation, even reaching a deflation in January.
09:24First, people save more, especially in the midst of the massive situation of the PHK wave in the labor-intensive sector.
09:31Second, although there is an electricity tariff discount,
09:34people save more to prepare for shopping during Ramadan and Eid in 2025.
09:41Furthermore, economists also assess that the government needs to immediately take strategic steps
09:45to increase people's purchasing power,
09:48such as through fiscal stimulus, incentives for the real sector,
09:51as well as policies that support investment and job creation.
09:56These steps are taken to ensure that the stability of the Indonesian economy
10:00is not disturbed by the long-term deflation trend.
10:04What do you think, Mr. Mayor?
10:06Do you agree with the government's claim in this matter?
10:09The Ministry of Finance stated that the rare January deflation
10:13is due to the 50% electricity tariff discount, or are people actually saving?
10:18And we leave the information about deflation.
10:21We will be back with other economic and business information after the break.