Mata uang rupiah ditutup melemah ke posisi Rp16.448 per USD pada perdagangan awal pekan ini. Rupiah melemah ke posisi terendah dalam 7 bulan terakhir, bahkan kembali mendekati level terlemah 5 tahun di Rp16.486 per USD. Tak hanya rupiah, mata uang kawasan Asia lainnya yang juga melemah cukup signifikan Senin adalah dolar Singapura melemah 0,80%, won Korea melemah 0,90% , dan baht Thailand melemah 1,01%.
Category
📺
TVTranscript
00:00Thank you, Mr. Mirza, for joining us again in MarketBuzz, and yesterday, Mr. Mirza, the highlight of the market was the IASG, which was closed at level 7030,
00:13which is one of the lowest levels in one month. In the first session, the Rupiah also weakened to the lowest level in six months and approached the lowest level in five years.
00:21We will discuss later about the Rupiah, which fell to 16,400 US dollars. What will the impact be on the market?
00:29But before that, Mr. Mirza, we asked you to summarize some economic agendas. Among them, from the United States, there is the transfer of FOMC members to Boston.
00:37Then, the emitting agenda from within the country, Mr. Mirza, there is SOHO RUPS, MMEX will also be RUPS.
00:43Before we go to the domestic market, we should see what Mr. Mirza's condition is like, an update from the opening of trade in the Asian exchange this morning.
00:51There is an index of regional areas. Next, there is Nikkei Japan. Mr. Mirza is monitored to strengthen 1.55%.
00:59Singapore's trade time also strengthened 0.69%. KOSPI rose 2.18%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.34%.
01:07Compact strengthened Mr. Mirza from the Asian exchange.
01:22Yes, how is the market condition of the opportunity from the joint stock price index?
01:26After we saw earlier, Mr. Mirza, the United States limited Trump's loss by lowering the tariff to Mexico. There is a win-win there.
01:34Then, Mr. Mirza, we also saw that the Asian exchange was compactly strengthened.
01:38Well, we will discuss this morning with William Surya Wijaya, CEO of Yugen Securities. Good morning, Mr. William.
01:47Good morning, Mr. Mirza.
01:48Good morning. Thank you for joining us this morning. Mr. William, how are you?
01:53I'm fine.
01:54Thank you. Mr. William, we can see that the Asian exchange has returned to a positive direction.
01:58After yesterday, there were a lot of Asian exchange values, including rupiah, which were quite deep.
02:03How far do you see this Trump effect affecting the exchange value, especially the stock market?
02:14Yes, if we look at it today, the region is compact, strengthening from several, including several other indexes.
02:22Although we also know that DOJON actually has a little pressure.
02:27However, the real level is more stable and still above Rp40,000.
02:32So I think if we talk about the effects, the policies that are carried out by the government,
02:38whether it's the new government or the government that is already in office, such as Trump,
02:44it will certainly give a little temporary effect.
02:49Because after that, it will experience a new point of consideration.
02:54So I think what Trump is doing, maybe one of them is to stabilize what he sees may be unstable.
03:03So in this regard, maybe what the President of the United States is doing is more to see where the market will react, not temporarily.
03:14Let's take an example like the delay in Mexico.
03:18Of course, that is also a step that after he sees the reaction, there are several reactions that he may have to adjust.
03:25So I think that's what I see for the policies, including the impact on several areas in the United States, or later for those abroad.
03:38If we look at the exchange rate, focus on the rupee, Mr. William, this was 16,469 yesterday.
03:47Actually, this level is the lowest in the last six months, but approaching the lowest level in the last five years at 16,486.
03:58What is the anticipation of the negative impact of the exchange rate on the domestic market?
04:04Is there any connection with foreign outflows that are likely to increase with the presence of protectionist from the new President of the United States?
04:17What is it like, Mr. William?
04:19Actually, if you look at the condition of the rupee movement from the end of the year until now, it's actually relatively stable.
04:30Because we know that the rupee has started to move at around 15 more, up to 16 more, maybe even 16,500.
04:38It seems to also adapt from the USD index itself, which usually moves at below 100, now above 100.
04:46So I think for this movement, from year to year, there may be a relatively stable increase.
04:55Although it is expected that the exchange rate can be quite good for the rupee exchange rate,
05:03in the sense that it may not be too high above the level of 6,500.
05:08However, if you look at the conditions of the policies that each country is doing to be able to save the conditions of each pre-economy,
05:17I think this increase is more reasonable.
05:23Maybe it's just how we deal with the pre-economy or monetary policy that will be done by the United States.
05:31According to Mr. William, as a market actor, what are your expectations from Mr. William,
05:40from the steps taken by Indonesia or domestic to eliminate the negative sentiment from the external that there are still many uncertainties?
05:50Yes, the uncertainty still continues.
05:53And we see that maybe one of the things that has been done by the Central Bank of Indonesia itself,
05:59has stopped or is about to reduce the flow rate.
06:02That is one of the policies that have been very implemented by the United States.
06:06And we also see anticipation of other things that may have an impact on the economy,
06:13such as the rate of inflation.
06:17Even now we are more prone to inflation, which must be increased from the consumption side and so on.
06:23Of course, that also needs to be taken into account.
06:26In other words, we see that the current pre-economy conditions that are happening
06:32still need to be maintained.
06:34We can still maintain the stability of the economy,
06:39which can also be seen in the current situation,
06:42such as yesterday in the inflation or maybe in the deficit reserve, which is still quite well maintained.
06:48So I think that's what we have to do now.
06:53In this matter, maybe it's more defensive, so it's not too aggressive.
06:59However, in terms of the economy, it's not too slow, but it's still going on.
07:05But do you see the opportunity of Indonesia's economy at the moment is still on the track?
07:11Yes, if you look at the conditions, it should be normal.
07:16Moreover, we can see from the report of Kinerja-Kinerja Emiten, which was launched in full year,
07:20one by one, which has already started to happen, it should still maintain a fairly stable economy.
07:27Okay, with the Sarga Samkepungan index at 7,030 and the current Rupiah at 16,400,
07:33what are the suggestions from Mr. William that must be done by capital market investors,
07:39especially for retail investors at the moment?
07:43Yes, if we look at it from the point of view of an economy that is still quite stable and has a lot of momentum,
07:49maybe with this movement, both retail investors and traders,
07:56it seems that there is a lot of momentum that can be used,
07:59especially if there is pressure in the stocks that have a large capitalization market.
08:04And the ribbon condition today may be seen, there is a tendency to become technical ribbon,
08:11of course it can also be used because we know where the pressure is all day long.
08:16In terms of the last arrival session, there was a slight rise or rise to return again,
08:21so that the minus is not too deep.
08:24So I think that's what can and should be done by investors.
08:29There is a short-term ribbon opportunity for the Sarga Samkepungan index,
08:33after yesterday at 7,000, the position at 7,030 dropped by 1.11%.
08:41What is today's opportunity like?
08:42Earlier there was information from Trump that the tariff to Mexico was delayed again,
08:47and it was welcomed positively by the US stock market, although it is still weak, but it is losing.
08:51And Asia this morning, we watched Mr. William's opening this morning,
08:56the compact is still in a positive territory.
08:58How about the opportunity for the IHSG in the pre-opening?
09:00At the moment I see it is already green at 7,051 or up 0.3%.
09:06What is the analysis of the longer-term IHSG opportunity, sir?
09:11If we look at the conditions, actually there is still a potential to experience a technical rebound.
09:16At least the IHSG will try to test at the nearest level at 7,123.
09:21So whether it will be penetrated, even if it can withstand the closure above it,
09:27it will continue to rebound.
09:29However, if it is still below that level,
09:32maybe it will still be more towards consolidation and the nature is still a technical rebound.
09:38The nature is still a technical rebound.
09:40So when it's a technical rebound, what should investors do?
09:45Especially traders, Mr. William.
09:47If we talk about traders, maybe at the moment there are a lot of things that can be used.
09:51We know that the stock market experienced pressure yesterday,
09:54at the end of the session, it went up and down.
09:56So there are a lot of things that can be used.
09:59So if we talk about technical rebound, maybe for traders,
10:02they can start to take a position to sell if they have bought yesterday.
10:08At the moment, if we talk about investors who are medium to long,
10:15it seems that this momentum is really a momentum that can be used to accumulate buying.
10:21At least to start collecting goods,
10:23which we see with the condition of stable economy,
10:26maybe in the middle of the year, it's still quite interesting.
10:30The fresh wind for those who want to invest in medium to long,
10:33this is the right moment to buy, Mr. William.
10:39More or less like this.
10:40What is the recommendation?
10:42Don't delay the audience, stay with us at Market Pass.
10:46Good morning audience, those of you who have just joined us at Market Pass.
10:49The story is still going on about a number of sentiments,
10:51especially the value of the rupee exchange that can affect the capital market movement.
10:55With Mr. William Suryawijaya, CEO of UGN Security.
10:58Mr. William, so if we talk about the Rupiah 16,400,
11:01you see that this is a fairly normal dynamic when there is a sentiment from the global market.
11:06But you see that the Rupiah tends to be stable in the future.
11:09Is that right, sir?
11:11Yes, more or less like that.
11:12With a stability of around Rp. 15,900 to Rp. 16,300,
11:17the Rupiah movement should be in that direction.
11:22Okay, and you were optimistic that this is the right moment
11:25to do the re-buy accumulation action for medium to long investment.
11:29What sectors, what kind of stocks do you recommend
11:34for us to invest or buy medium to long at the moment?
11:39Actually, we can see a lot, one of them may be in finance,
11:43especially in the sector where there has been quite a lot of pressure in this area.
11:48Maybe we can see things like BNI, CA, BNI,
11:53it's still quite interesting for us to do the re-buy accumulation.
11:56Maybe we ...
11:57While ...
11:58Sorry?
11:59Please, sir, while ...
12:01While in other sectors, maybe we can see in the property sector,
12:05which is still quite interesting in the medium term,
12:10especially since we know that the condition of the property sector has experienced quite a lot of pressure.
12:15So I think those two sectors, plus maybe in the consumer goods sector,
12:20where soon we will have fasting and Eid,
12:23maybe it will be quite interesting to see the energy report from them.
12:27Last time we had a talk show, sir, at the end of 2024,
12:31you said property, and now it's still consistent,
12:34for 2025, the property is still interesting.
12:36We may discuss from the property.
12:40What triggers this property,
12:42so that Mr. William sees that the property in 2025 is worth buying
12:46as a medium to long investment portfolio?
12:50Because we see from the property side,
12:52especially if we look at the real sector,
12:54the property sectors do not stop developing.
12:57In this case, their development for those areas is still quite a lot,
13:03although on the other hand, there may be many challenges
13:07that are faced by the property sector,
13:09such as for high-rise buildings.
13:11However, for residential, I think it's still quite interesting,
13:15moreover, on the property side,
13:17there are many that can be used to maintain,
13:20in the sense that this property has quite a large recurring income,
13:25where we know that the recurring income also comes from several sides,
13:31such as those who have quite large malls,
13:34of course it will also support their energy report.
13:37So prospectively, if we look at the property,
13:40both short-term, medium-term, and long-term,
13:43it's actually quite interesting.
13:44Property, then consumer goods.
13:46Okay, let's talk about property first.
13:48Some of the properties, maybe one or two, Mr. William,
13:51that you think are worthy of being discussed,
13:54what are some of them?
13:57Property is probably one that we can see for Pakuan.
14:01Pakuan?
14:02Pakuan has a fairly large recurring income,
14:06so I think maybe with a fairly good Pakuan sustainability,
14:11it's still quite interesting for us to do the buying accumulation,
14:14especially since Pakuan has experienced quite a deep pressure
14:17from the figure of around 520 to the figure of 380.
14:21Maybe a little more will be tested to the figure of around 376,
14:25which at least has become the bottom,
14:28which can be invested for Pakuan now.
14:32At the moment at 382, Mr. William,
14:35what should be the correct strategy in Pakuan?
14:39For traders, maybe right now we can see a support at the figure of 376.
14:44However, if we talk about investors who are in the mid-to-long term,
14:48right now it's very much about the buying accumulation,
14:51at least for the potential gains or capital gains
14:57to be obtained at the figure of around 380 now,
15:02382 to the figure of 520.
15:05In the last three months, Pakuan has dropped by almost 20%, Mr. William.
15:09Are there any levels that may be a level of confirmation
15:13that the trend of Pakuan is getting more interesting
15:17when it comes to certain levels, Mr. William,
15:19or how, for example, 400,
15:21which was the highest last week, maybe, or above that?
15:26Indeed, in terms of investment,
15:28it may be a little different for each investor.
15:33Meanwhile, from my point of view,
15:36the condition of Pakuan right now is at the figure of around 380-380,
15:43maybe up to 386 is still quite interesting,
15:46as long as the support is strong at 376, not dropped below.
15:51So I think these levels are quite interesting,
15:55especially for investors who are in the medium-to-long term.
15:59In addition to Pakuan,
16:00maybe there is another recommendation from the property, Mr. William?
16:04In addition to Pakuan,
16:05maybe we can see Sumareton and Alam Sutra,
16:08because we know that Sumareton also usually moves at around 500-600,
16:12now still at the figure of around 400.
16:14As for Alam Sutra, maybe more to the long term,
16:18because we know that Alam Sutra has also experienced quite a long and long pressure.
16:23The figure now at the figure of around 138-139
16:27is still quite interesting.
16:29138-139 is still interesting for SMRA?
16:34Sorry, for Alam Sutra.
16:36Oh, Alam Sutra.
16:37Asri, right?
16:39Yes, that's right.
16:40Asri, what position is Asri in, sir?
16:42At 138-139, it's still quite interesting.
16:47So the current price position is 139 right now, Mr. William?
16:51Yes.
16:52Okay, 3 months down 36%, almost 37%.
16:57How is your analysis for Asri?
17:00Actually, because it has experienced quite a deep decline,
17:04and we know that Alam Sutra has actually been quite interesting for quite a long time.
17:08Although maybe fundamentally people will see that the debt is still quite a lot and so on.
17:13But if we look at the property with Alam Sutra's land bank which is still quite large,
17:17and maybe the current income will support the labor report fully.
17:22So I think it will still be an attractive asset for Alam Sutra.
17:27Okay, that's it for the analysis for the sector that Mr. William thinks is interesting.
17:30There is banking, but we have often covered banking.
17:32We went to the property earlier where Mr. William mentioned that there is Pakuun there,
17:36and there is also Asri or Alam Sutra, right, Mr. William?
17:40You said earlier that it is also interesting to pay homage to consumer goods for Ramadan.
17:44But before we go on, we will update the position of the trading opening this morning, Mr. Mirsa,
17:48where the index of joint stock prices is indeed strong like the pre-opening,
17:52and it seems to pay for the weakness that occurred yesterday 1%,
17:57now it is up 1% to 7,100, trying to reach the psychological level again at 7,100.
18:02With the value of the exchange of rupiah, Mr. Mirsa,
18:04the US dollar is currently experiencing a strength of 0.33% at 16,374.
18:11And maybe we can see it together with the stock market,
18:13which has become a top gainer this morning, Mr. Mirsa.
18:16You can see the complete data.
18:18All sectors that are moving this morning are green.
18:22It is in the far right column, Mr. Mirsa,
18:24where the strength is led by sectors such as basic industry,
18:29then health, technology, energy, property, then there is infrastructure there.
18:35And finance is actually in the last position for this morning,
18:39even though it is still green.
18:41Meanwhile, from the sectoral movement, there is TPIA, which is back to 10% at 8,250.
18:47PANI's businessmen, I mean, we correct Mr. Mirsa,
18:51TPIA and PANI are two different entities.
18:54PANI is 6%, GOTO is up 1%, AMMN is up almost 2%,
19:00this is just Mr. Mirsa's business.
19:01CBDK is up 4.36%, and some other companies, including the brand, Mr. Mirsa.
19:07The losers are KOUKA, then FWCT, MPP, ALABA, SMGA, and some other companies, Mr. Mirsa,
19:15where these positions will of course continue to change
19:18as the movement of the first trading session begins.
19:22Mr. William, consumer goods, we continue,
19:26even though we see in the current position,
19:28in the middle of the strengthening of the IISG 1%,
19:30consumer goods have not yet appeared in the top gainers and top losers.
19:34But what is interesting, consumer goods for medium to long investment
19:38or at least not welcoming Eid right now?
19:42For the closest, maybe we can see consumer goods for Eid.
19:48However, if we look at it, there are some consumer goods,
19:51for example, like Unilever, which has been in business for quite a long time.
19:55So right now, maybe it's more towards the long term, if we talk about Unilever.
20:00At the most tense time, maybe what is still seen is the movement is quite active,
20:09we can see maybe in Indofoods and ICPP,
20:12which is an interesting consumer goods for us to multiply.
20:16Whereas for Unilever, maybe it's more towards the long term,
20:20because we know that the decline has reached the level of 1,500-1,600.
20:26Actually, it's interesting for Unilever, maybe it's just more towards the long term.
20:30It needs a long term, if we talk about Unilever, it's interesting.
20:33But if you want to invest in medium to long, the choice in consumer goods is Unilever.
20:37But if you want to take advantage of the momentum to welcome Ramadan,
20:41it should be in Indofoods and ICPP, right, Mr. William?
20:44Something like that.
20:45Is there a target for Unilever, I mean ICPP and INDF?
20:50If we look at ICPP, maybe it's still around 11,400.
20:57At the moment, the level is still quite interesting, especially if there is a pressure in ICPP.
21:02But if we talk about medium to long, we see whether it can reach around 11,900 or 12,000.
21:11That's for ICPP.
21:13And if we talk about Indofood, maybe we can see that the movement level is around 7,550
21:26to the closest resistance level is around 8,025.
21:328,025.
21:33So I think that's what we see in the movement from Indofood.
21:38Okay, Mr. Mati.
21:39The stocks that have fallen a lot, the investors can buy them as collateral,
21:43then property, maybe there is Pakuan there, there is Asri.
21:46Then if we talk about consumer goods, Indofood and also ICPP.
21:50If you want long, long, long term, Unilever is also interesting.
21:53Are there any additional tips, Mr. William, before we finish?
21:57Yes, I think if we look at the condition of the ESG market,
22:01at this time, let's not go too far.
22:04This is an interesting moment for us to do buying accumulation at this time.
22:09Because in one year, there will certainly be quite a wide range of movements
22:14and quite a deep pressure.
22:15So I think that's what needs to be understood and investigated by the investors.
22:20Okay, this is an opportunity to do buying accumulation again,
22:22get a discount price on emittents, which is indeed worthy of respect, Mr. William.
22:27Mr. William, thank you very much for sharing your information this morning on MarketBuzz.
22:31See you again, sir. Good morning.
22:33Good morning, thank you.
22:35Once again, the investors, our investment decision is entirely in your hands.