Budget 2025: देश का बजट पेश होने में चंद दिन रह गए हैं. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman 1 फरवरी को उम्मीदों का बजट संसद में पेश करेंगी. बजट को लेकर हर किसी को उम्मीदें हैं. सरकार किन सेक्टर्स पर फोकस करेगी, किन स्टॉक्स को बजट के बाद पंख लगेंगे. FIIs का भरोसा कैसे लौटेगा Indian Share Market में? बजट से पहले और बाद में क्या हो Investment Strategy. इस पर GoodReturns की Editor Bhawna Gupta ने FUTURE FOCUS: BUDGET 2025 के नए एपिसोड में Dr Ravi Singh- Market Analyst से खास बातचीत की.
#budget #budget2025 #unionbudget #unionbudget2025 #FMSitharaman #PMModi #NirmalaSitharaman #IncomeTax #budgetexpectations #GST #TaxRules #TaxinBudget2025 #ITR #incometaxfile #GDP #Economy #taxpayers #goodreturns #goldoutlook #sharemarket #stockstobuy #sharemarketnews #stockmarket #budgetandmarket #drravisingh #saudakharakhara
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#budget #budget2025 #unionbudget #unionbudget2025 #FMSitharaman #PMModi #NirmalaSitharaman #IncomeTax #budgetexpectations #GST #TaxRules #TaxinBudget2025 #ITR #incometaxfile #GDP #Economy #taxpayers #goodreturns #goldoutlook #sharemarket #stockstobuy #sharemarketnews #stockmarket #budgetandmarket #drravisingh #saudakharakhara
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00:00Hi, this is Bhavna and you are watching Good Returns, Future Focus, Budget 2025's new
00:11episode.
00:12And this episode is our master episode because in the next 15-20 minutes, we will try to
00:19know what should be your investment strategy on Budget day, how the market is going to
00:26react to it, what you have to do, we will try to understand because you are seeing the
00:32mood of the market right now that the market has been seeing a period of decline since
00:38October 2024.
00:39So in this, people have a lot of expectations from Budget 2025, especially investors, that
00:45there may be such announcements in the budget that will have an impact on the market and
00:50once again see a recovery in the market.
00:52So what are the possible announcements in the budget, what are the expectations, what
00:56should be your investment strategy, we will discuss that in the next 15 minutes.
01:00Your favorite guest is with us in this episode of Future Focus, Ravi ji, who is a market
01:06analyst, he has joined us, Ravi sir, thank you very much for talking to us, for joining
01:12us in this episode of Future Focus.
01:15Yes, thank you very much and the name you said, Future Focus, that is why it is very
01:20important, because at this time, every person is focusing on their future, to make a future,
01:26they are working hard day and night, and to make that hard work successful, the work they
01:31are doing, they are doing it for a good return.
01:33So I feel that the aim of your program will definitely be fulfilled here and the common
01:39man will also get more benefit from it.
01:41Absolutely, sir, first of all, let's know what to expect from this budget, as a market
01:48expert, what are your expectations from this budget?
01:50Look, there are different expectations from the budget, there are different expectations
01:54of different sectors, we will discuss that, but it is certain that this time's budget
01:59will not be a very lubricating budget, that is, let's hope, but the economic situation
02:05that is going on right now, the boost that the market needs from somewhere, the boost
02:12that the market needs from somewhere, that may be seen in this time's budget, and because
02:17of this, the market is not sustaining at the higher levels, and more reliability is also
02:22not being built here, so for now, you can see the sector and stock specific moments, but
02:28I feel that the policies of the government this time will not be able to fill a lot of
02:34enthusiasm in the market.
02:36So, sir, what do you think, which sectors can the government focus on?
02:41We will know that on 1st February, but what do you think, according to the market, which
02:47sectors should the government focus on?
02:50Look, if you look at it, the government focuses across the sector, and if I go into that,
02:56then the different confidence that I see, first of all, what is being discussed the most
03:03is that of green and renewable energies, on the other hand, if we look at the way the
03:09infrastructure is being developed, if we talk about the defence sectors, then you will
03:14get to see the focus of the government here, and overall, if we try to compare here, then
03:21I feel that there are about 7 to 8 sectors in which the focus of the government is, companies
03:29are also performing here, whether it is BFSI, whether it is NBCC's companies or construction
03:36related companies, then you will see the overall structure here.
03:40Now, the two sectors that give important confidence to the investor here, as far as the growth
03:45is concerned, in which FMCG and Pharma sectors are there, then I feel that the stock specific
03:51movement will remain here.
03:53Now, this is a time of dilemma, like the expectation that is being done this time,
03:57the earnings that are coming, the stocks are going upside, but are not able to sustain.
04:02Here, the expectation from the government is that the government should focus on 2-3 things
04:08here, so that the market can also sustain, and our investors can also earn a lot of money
04:14here.
04:15Absolutely, sir, if we talk specifically about January, then there have been 2-3 events in
04:19which the sentiment of the market has become a little negative.
04:23The first thing is that the results of December quarter have not come as expected of the companies.
04:28Second, the selling of FIIs, i.e. foreign institutional investors, has increased a lot, has become
04:33bad.
04:34The third was the Trump factor, due to which the overall trend in the market was seen to
04:39be a little negative.
04:40Now, what is expected in this is expected from our most important event, Budget 2025.
04:48The Pre-Budget Rally is missing this time, which was always seen somewhere, that there
04:52was a Pre-Budget Rally, that has not happened this time.
04:55So, what do you think, how will the market react on the day of the Budget or after the
04:59Budget?
05:00Can we see a Rally?
05:02Or can there be a big correction?
05:04Very good question, Bhavna ji, and you have asked this question of everyone's heart.
05:08If I tell you, then next 2 days, listen to what I am saying very carefully, understand,
05:13know, adopt a strategy.
05:14In the next 2 days, you do not have to be bearish in the market, you will not see any
05:20time of weakness in the market.
05:22If you get a dip, then you will see a time of speed again, and you will get that speed
05:28till the day of the Budget, in the morning half, even before the speed of the Budget,
05:32you will get a time of speed, i.e. you have 2 days here, so that on Friday and Saturday
05:38you can continue your buying positions.
05:40And the biggest thing is that those who have positions, patiently wait and watch here,
05:45there is no need to worry.
05:47It is more important than the expectation of the Budget that the momentum at this time
05:51will be seen as the sentiment is working here.
05:54Now, what you said, in which FII is selling or Trump's relations, see, there is no doubt
06:01that if we compare 1.2 or 1.3 or 1.4, then you will see most of the points as negative
06:08and its impact will also be seen in the long term.
06:11You said a very important thing, FII is selling continuously, they are not seeing any sentiment
06:15of buying.
06:16On the other hand, now the company earnings are also hitting here, so the second point
06:21has happened, in which the impact of the company earnings is being seen.
06:25On the third point, the effect of inflation is now getting deeper and deeper, and its
06:31effect will also be seen in the future, so a negative sentiment is also formed here.
06:36So, these three factors are clearly visible here.
06:38Fourth, as I said, you keep making 4 is to 1 ratio.
06:42The fourth factor is Trump.
06:44The way Trump is in aggression this time and the way he has tariffed for China, tariffed
06:50for India, then export policies or the changes in the policies he is talking about, he will
06:55hit India's relations from somewhere and its impact will also be seen directly in business
07:01and the effect of bond yield will also be seen here.
07:04Now, let's come against 4 and add up, our factor is Budget.
07:08So, if there is a rally for 4 days, if there is a downfall for 4 days, then there will
07:13only be a rally for 1 day, which you can understand.
07:15So, I feel that the 1-2 days that I am trying to find out are Friday and Saturday, in which
07:21there can be a little buying bias.
07:24But there is no doubt that in the future, the time of Mandi will be deep again, there
07:29will be a little correction in the market.
07:31But now, the bottom-out process will be seen from somewhere.
07:34Sir, you are talking about correction.
07:36The market will remain open on Saturday because there is a budget and this is such an event
07:41that if it happens on Saturdays, then the market remains open even before.
07:45Now, my first question to you is that should there be a panic between investors right now?
07:51Because after October, we are seeing that the sentiment of investors is scared.
07:56They are in a panic situation.
07:57What to do, what to do?
07:58Whenever we do live, we get questions from people, so everyone is scared and ask the
08:03same thing.
08:04There was a loss in this, there was a loss in this, there was a loss in this.
08:08So, the first thing, should the investors have a fear at the moment?
08:13Second, if we are talking specifically about Saturday, the day our budget is going to be
08:18present, what should be the investment strategy of that day?
08:21Because it is often seen that in event-based trading, which we have mentioned earlier,
08:2690% traders lose their money.
08:30So, I would like to know the answer to these two questions from you, sir.
08:33What is the matter today?
08:34You are asking the strategy on the questions of the heart of the investor.
08:39And I give a very good answer to it.
08:41I just have one request from you.
08:43Please follow what I am telling you.
08:46The answer is hidden in the question you asked.
08:49You trade intraday, you expect the market more.
08:54But you also get profit, but you are not able to book profit.
08:57So, Mr. Bhavna, the first problem comes here.
08:59And the big reason behind it is that we become very greedy.
09:03If we understand that in the market, suppose the market is in the situation at this time,
09:08if you get 2.5-2.5% rally, then my suggestion is to book profit in the stock, exit, leave,
09:14prepare to cut.
09:16As soon as 1.5-2% comes, our clients understand that now 2% is coming.
09:22Now this 10% will go.
09:24Leave who cuts.
09:25He left for 10 minutes and on the intraday, the 2% that was coming, reaches the loss of 8%.
09:30Then the market says that now I will not let you cut.
09:33So now it cannot be cut.
09:35So do not let this situation come.
09:37For him, the best strategy is the first.
09:39There is no need to panic.
09:41The market is good.
09:42You should go towards buying biasness.
09:44That is, the counters that you are getting on 30-40% correction.
09:47And the sectors that we discussed, I will repeat again.
09:50Like we talked about infrastructure, we talked about FMCG counter, we talked about the pharma sector,
09:57we talked about defense, we talked about the railway counter, and the most important is the banking counter.
10:03So do not be bearish on these counters.
10:06That is, do not go towards bearish.
10:08You stay towards bullishness.
10:10And whenever you get profit, take the opportunity to prepare to run.
10:14So I think that is a better opportunity.
10:16Sir, if we talk about FIIs, then do you think that after the budget, they can be returned?
10:21Can this Bikvali be a little less?
10:23And can we get to see buying?
10:25Look, for now, the sentiment is not showing anywhere that you should have a lot of confidence here.
10:32And FIIs also, I feel that they are hesitating to buy a little now.
10:38They are moving out a little.
10:39The market sentiment is getting bad.
10:40So now this period can look a little longer.
10:43You can see some clarity here only after the next two to three months.
10:47Sir, can the budget fill confidence between FIIs in the Indian stock market?
10:51If in the budget, look, I highlight some things in the budget point.
10:55Like in the budget, and especially at this time, the negativity that is being seen regarding the tax,
11:03on the other hand, there is no relief regarding the STT,
11:06the tightening that is happening, or there is no indication of providing liquidity in the market.
11:14If our finance minister can solve any of these questions in the sentiment,
11:20can give confidence, then you will believe that the market will leave its lower territory and start moving towards the higher territory.
11:29Sir, last time when the budget was presented in July 2024, which was the first full budget of the Modi government, Modi 3.0,
11:36then we talked about the capital gain tax in Sauda Khara Khara.
11:40We talked about the increase in LTCG and STCG.
11:43So last time there were some indications that they will be increased.
11:46And the Indian stock market is believed to be such that globally our market has a lot of capital gain tax.
11:53What do you think, sir, can the government give some relief to the investors this time?
11:57I think the investors will not get relief, but if they had given some positive sentiment,
12:02then also the market would have seemed to be moving.
12:04But I don't have much expectation.
12:07And if we take it out probability wise, then I feel that even 1% probability is not visible here.
12:15So this point can only be kept in a question and answer session, but its solution is not visible.
12:22So sir, what do you think, what announcements can be made in the budget according to the share market,
12:27which can boost the confidence of the investors once again?
12:32Look, the government has a lot of options for announcement in the budget.
12:37There are a lot of things, like there can be a talk of providing liquidity, which the government does.
12:43If we talk about specific projects, the fund allocation, if the allocation remains the same or the allocation is increased,
12:51like I talked about counters, in which railway, defense, FMCG and infrastructure counters were talked about.
12:57So that type of companies will start getting benefits here.
13:01So I think what will be the allocation of the main expenditure is an important factor.
13:07And every year you must have seen that the government has a target in the budget.
13:11Like this time, you must have seen last year, the discussion was about EV and AI, their stocks ran well.
13:18This time, we are talking about renewable energy again.
13:21But from somewhere, manufacturing and NBFC, all these companies are betting that the government will do something for them.
13:29If it does something, then it will definitely have a positive impact.
13:32Now sir, let's talk a little sector specific.
13:37But before that, today is 30th January and the budget is coming on 1st January.
13:41We are recording this episode on 30th January.
13:44Most probably, you will get to see this today or on 31st January.
13:49So sir, if we talk about 31st and 1st January, are you able to see the market levels?
13:58Are you able to guess that these will be the market levels?
14:01Bhavna ji, I will say this again.
14:03My repetitive question will be for you.
14:05Today, you have taken an oath for the trader, for the investor, that you will add the levels and make a budget strategy.
14:12That's why this is our master episode.
14:15If it is a master episode, then you will definitely get a bonus.
14:18And keep one thing in mind.
14:20First, I gave a statement that the market will be bullish.
14:23If we look at the Nifty levels, then the market can easily reach the level of 23,700 to 800.
14:30And on the lower side, the bottom is not much below 22,800.
14:36Although, it indicates to stay above 23,000.
14:39But still, if we look at it from the risk side, then it seems so.
14:42There is less indication of correction in the market.
14:44And as far as Bank Nifty is concerned, you can see a rally of 5 to 700 points in the coming 2 days.
14:51So, be patient and buy good stocks.
14:55So that you can get the benefit.
14:57The market range will be positive.
14:59And there is no need to be afraid of the negative.
15:01Because the next 2 days, there is an indication of staying positive.
15:05Sir, now we have discussed what all you have to do.
15:08Which sectors will get a boost?
15:10Which stocks are up?
15:12But are there any sectors or stocks that should be avoided?
15:18Whether it is pre-budget, budget day or after the budget.
15:23You have to keep a distance from them.
15:25For now, don't touch them.
15:26Very good question.
15:27Again, I will say, Bhawana ji.
15:29This is the most important.
15:31You asked a question.
15:32I have not asked many questions.
15:34Everyone asks where to invest.
15:36First, stay away from the telecom industry.
15:39Note it down.
15:40Don't invest in it.
15:42Second, looking at the current scenario,
15:46I feel that if you go related to tech,
15:50keep a distance from the telecom companies, the tower companies.
15:56Because you won't see much aggression in them.
15:59If you go to the other sector,
16:01If you go to the other sector,
16:03keep a distance from the reality sector.
16:06You won't see much budget boost for them.
16:09You may see a sell-off in them.
16:12Third, keep a distance from the IT sector.
16:17Fourth, keep a distance from the textile industry.
16:24Don't invest in them.
16:26The fifth is the most important.
16:30Keep a distance from the studio-based companies.
16:37Sir, if the government's target for disinvestment increases,
16:42do you think we can see an increase in our PSU?
16:49Can we see a trending up?
16:51Absolutely.
16:52You will get a boost here.
16:53I feel that the oil marketing companies,
16:55the gas companies,
16:56the infrastructure related companies,
16:58the government companies will see this boost.
17:01The benefit of this boost will go through the banking counter.
17:04So, the PSBs need to focus here.
17:07Sir, I have one last question for you.
17:09As we told the viewers,
17:10we will explain the strategy to you in the next 15-20 minutes.
17:14So, my last question to you is,
17:16we will discuss two things.
17:18First, what should we do in these 4-5 days,
17:21before the budget,
17:22on the day of the budget,
17:23and after the budget?
17:26And what should we not do in these 3 situations?
17:29First, you have to do the buying.
17:33On the day of the budget,
17:34when the budget is represented,
17:35you have to get out of the stocks that are profiting.
17:38And after the budget,
17:39by reviewing your long-term portfolio,
17:43you have to move the profits to your home.
17:48That means,
17:49you have to have a profit strategy in the stocks.
17:51What not to do?
17:52Don't buy anything on the day of the budget.
17:54Because it can give you a lot of pain.
17:57And you can get stuck at the upper level.
18:00So, this time,
18:01you have to keep a long-term strategy away from investing in the budget.
18:06You will get better opportunities throughout the year.
18:10But, on the day of the budget,
18:11it will be wrong to make a long-term strategy on the stock.
18:14Absolutely.
18:15So, it has been summed up in 1-2 lines.
18:18What you have to do on the day of the budget,
18:20before the budget,
18:21and what not to do after the budget.
18:23If you understand it very clearly,
18:25then you don't have to buy anything on the day of the budget for the long term.
18:30You have to take care of your aggressiveness.
18:34Buy it first,
18:35book the profit,
18:37and take the cash home.
18:38Thank you very much for this master episode.
18:41And we had a connection very little time ago
18:45that let's record a master episode of today.
18:47So, thank you very much for giving your time to talk to us in such a short time.
18:53So, you have just heard your favorite market expert, Dr. Ravi Singh.
18:57He has told you the whole strategy.
18:59You have also known which sectors can get a boost.
19:02So, you have to walk carefully with patience in these 3-4 days.
19:08You have to invest with patience.
19:10And you don't have to be too greedy.
19:13If you are making a profit,
19:14then take the cash home.
19:16And it is always said that
19:18long-term investors are never in danger.
19:23So, this was our master episode about the share market.
19:26And we will meet you again tomorrow.
19:29Because the budget is going to be present on 1st February.
19:32Before that, we will record a master episode of Soda Khara Khara on 31st January.
19:39We will definitely tell you the timings.
19:42And if you check the page of GoodReturns,
19:44you will also get to know the timings.
19:46And on the day of Budget Day,
19:47if you want the complete analysis,
19:49what happened in the budget,
19:51what is good for you,
19:52what is bad for you,
19:53how is the budget,
19:54for that, you have to watch GoodReturns from 8 am to 5 pm.
20:00Because we will be live the whole day.
20:03We will keep giving you updates on the budget every moment.
20:07So, viewers, thank you for watching us.