Budget 2025: देश का बजट पेश होने में चंद दिन रह गए हैं. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman 1 फरवरी को उम्मीदों का बजट संसद में पेश करेंगी. बजट को लेकर हर किसी को उम्मीदें हैं. सरकार किन सेक्टर्स पर फोकस करेगी, किन स्टॉक्स को बजट के बाद पंख लगेंगे. FIIs का भरोसा कैसे लौटेगा Indian Share Market में? इस पर GoodReturns की Editor Bhawna Gupta ने FUTURE FOCUS: BUDGET 2025 के नए एपिसोड में Vijay Mehta- Chairman & CEO, Mefcom Capitals से खास बातचीत की.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi, this is Bhavna and you are watching Goodreturns.
00:08The most important event of the year, Budget 2025 is going to be present.
00:13On 1 February, the Modi government will present its budget.
00:17If there is a budget, then there is a lot of movement in the market.
00:21Especially now that the market is in a mood, the market has a lot of expectations from the budget.
00:27It is said that 94% traders lose their money in event-based trading.
00:33So don't make this mistake, that's why you have to understand the budget and the market from all aspects.
00:39What you have to prepare before the budget, what you have to take care of on the day of the budget,
00:44how you can invest after the budget.
00:46We will try to know all these things today.
00:49We will also try to know how the market mood can be after the budget.
00:53That is, we will talk about every aspect today.
00:56If you are an investor, trader or you are ready to make a new entry in the market,
01:00then this video and this episode of our future-focused budget 2025 is very important for you.
01:06Mr. Vijay Mehta, President, Association of National Exchanges, Members of India and Chairman and CEO of Mefcom Capitals is in conversation with us today.
01:14Sir, thank you very much and welcome to Goodreturns.
01:19Sir, first of all, what are the expectations from the budget?
01:22The present fiscal position, if the status is maintained, then the market will be very happy.
01:34Because there are a lot of rumors that a new tax will be introduced in the stock market or the existing limits will be increased or the long-term capital gain tax time period will be increased.
01:49All these rumors depress the market.
01:54So, I think that if the finance minister is not in a mental commitment to give more, then if he does not touch anything, it will also be good for the market.
02:08Which sector do you think needs the most attention?
02:14Look, we will have to understand two or three things that after September 26, the market has been declining in the last three and a half months.
02:24And even from the beginning of this year, from January, the market has been falling daily.
02:32And not only the market is falling, but all the foreign institutional investors are continuously lowering their position in the market.
02:44And almost on a daily basis, they are selling worth about 5000 crores.
02:52The reason is why they are selling.
02:54The first reason is that the results of the Indian companies are not very good for the December quarter.
03:02The second reason is that there is hope from Mr. Trump's arrival in America that the American economy will improve.
03:13Now, the third thing is that most of the foreign institutional investors, they brought their investment into India somewhere from Rs. 45 to Rs. 55.
03:30Today, the dollar is of Rs. 85.
03:33So, even if they earn something, a substantial portion of it is due to the loss of all their earnings due to the depreciation of the rupee.
03:46So, practically, they are carrying home very little money as compared to the depreciation which has happened in the Indian stocks.
03:56What is happening is that the Indian government is losing many opportunities.
04:03Today, if American companies withdraw from China, then its major amount of share did not come to India.
04:11It went to Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, Bangladesh, and many other countries.
04:19According to India's big economy, the companies did not shift in India.
04:24There are two major reasons for this.
04:27One is when we have imposed tax on foreign institutional investors.
04:33Now, the whole world has become a global village.
04:37Unless foreigners come and invest here, the Indian stock market will not continue to go up.
04:45So, it is very important in the budget that we introduce such points due to which foreign institutional investors come back.
04:55Not only that, we have to give incentives to Indian corporates in the budget in such a way that their results are also good in the current market economic situation.
05:12So, when these factors are taken care of, the stock market will start improving again.
05:17Sir, as you have also said, if we look at the share market, there is already a panic.
05:24We have been seeing since October how the market has been falling continuously.
05:29But if we talk about tax specifically, then when the budget was presented in July, the first full budget of the Modi government 3.0,
05:38LTCG and STC, i.e. Short Term Capital Gain Tax and Long Term Capital Gain Tax,
05:43there was already an indication that there could be some announcement on them.
05:47And last year we also saw how they were increased.
05:51So, the way we are seeing in the market, there is a panic.
05:55So, what are the possibilities in the budget?
05:57How will the budget 2025 influence the overall stock market sentiment?
06:02As I said in my opening remarks, if the finance minister does not touch the taxation of the market, then this is enough.
06:12Because today, there are so many taxes on the Indian stock market that are the highest in the world market.
06:23There is STT, there is transaction tax, there is brokerage, there is turnover tax, there is SEBI tax.
06:34There are so many taxes on the stock market investors.
06:39And your own study also says that 90% of the investors do not earn in F&O.
06:45They do not earn, but you have increased the number of shares of F&O.
06:52These are two contradictions.
06:54Now, when you introduced STT, Mr. Chidambaram in 2004,
07:00they said that it is in replacement of the Capital Gain Tax.
07:05Because Capital Gain Tax was paid at the end of the year.
07:08Whereas, STT is collected on a daily basis.
07:12Now, today we have got STT as well as we have got Capital Gain Tax.
07:17And both these taxes, they are on the upper end.
07:21Apart from that, all the taxes,
07:24the stock market is a very favorite cow of the ministry,
07:29where they continue to collect money.
07:32Assuming that the market is getting good returns,
07:35then there should be participation of the government and share of the government.
07:38But there is also a limit to this.
07:40I think that if the taxation is increased, it will work as a disincentive.
07:46And the government does not understand one thing,
07:50that the more their tax collection is going on,
07:53the more the loss of market cap is in the stock market.
07:57And the economic effect that it spreads out to the new investors,
08:03that in the long run is contrary to the spirit of capital formation in the country.
08:10So, the Finance Minister should take care of these things overall.
08:13Sir, do you think that if the budget is good,
08:17then can we see a rally in the market after that?
08:20The way we are seeing the decline,
08:22although there are many factors behind this decline,
08:24you have mentioned Trump 2.0,
08:26you have mentioned the sale of FIIs,
08:28but can the budget fill a little hope between the investors and the market
08:33that if the budget is good, there can be a rally?
08:36Look, the market runs in a process.
08:39Today, the market is below 26,200,
08:44let's say for example, 23,200.
08:47So, it has already depreciated by 3,000 points of Nifty.
08:52My point is that if the budget is good,
08:55there could be a rally, but the problem,
08:58the point is whether the rally is going to sustain.
09:01Now, rally is going to sustain only when the interest rate is brought down,
09:06which has been a long-standing demand because inflation is under control.
09:12And then there have to be some kind of incentives
09:16to be given by the government to the industry.
09:19And you have to make the taxation soft.
09:22Now, these are the points which will come one after the other,
09:28and they have to be like a package to the investors.
09:32Once if the package is good,
09:34and the companies start making money,
09:36their results are better,
09:38the consumption story is on.
09:40And Indian economy is improving.
09:43Then only the market will go up on a sustainable basis.
09:48A minor rally can be there because the markets have fallen so much
09:54that the next trigger is the budget.
09:58Now, once that trigger is positive,
10:01and it is followed up by different other measures,
10:05then probably we can see at least
10:08upward side of one-third of the fall,
10:12which we can easily, I think, presume.
10:16So, if the budget is fine,
10:19then we can see a bit faster in the market.
10:23But if there are no announcements in the budget as expected,
10:28no announcements are made,
10:30then our next big trigger is the budget.
10:32We can see a sharp fall here.
10:34So, sir, how are you looking at the market?
10:37Is it fine for investors to invest now?
10:40See, it depends on the fact that
10:43if you become stock specific.
10:46There are still many stocks that are very expensive.
10:49You see, valuations have rocketed.
10:52Today, P discounting of 100,
10:55and look at the prices of the IPOs.
10:58They are collecting money at such a heavy price.
11:02Apart from that, the existing companies
11:05have their shares quoted at 100 P discounting.
11:0860-70 P is too much for companies
11:11whose shares are being quoted.
11:14I think, even if the budget is good,
11:17there will be selective buying.
11:20And unless we do really something
11:23with the foreign FIIs,
11:26then it is difficult to have a sustainable pace in the market.
11:30Sir, let's assume that
11:33what will happen after the budget
11:36depends on the budget.
11:39Before that, can we see a sharp rise in the market?
11:42See, if the market closes at 23,500,
11:45then there can be a small pre-budget rally in the market.
11:53Sir, where are you looking at the market at this time?
11:56There can be opportunities in the power sector.
11:59Apart from this,
12:02the companies of CAPEX can do well.
12:05Apart from that, telecom companies
12:08have a core package expected.
12:11That can be doing well.
12:14Infrastructure companies can do well.
12:17IT will depend on the American policy.
12:20IT may be slightly subdued.
12:23Sir, can you be a little more specific?
12:27Investment shares can do well.
12:30But that is a part of the infrastructure.
12:33Sir, let's talk a little more about the sector.
12:36If we talk about the banking and financial services sector,
12:39then what is the impact of the 2025 budget on this sector?
12:42What kind of impact will it have on its shares?
12:45Now, most of them have already come out with their results.
12:48HDFC, Kotak Bank,
12:51their results are good.
12:54PSUs also have a mixed bag.
12:57I think the rate at which PSUs are quoting,
13:00they have better chances of appreciation.
13:03And if the interest rates come down,
13:06then the growth of PSU banks will be better.
13:09Sir, our next sector is the renewable energy sector.
13:12Can there be any incentives in the 2025 budget
13:15for the renewable energy sector
13:18to boost stock prices?
13:21I forgot to mention this sector.
13:24I think the government is very keen
13:27to encourage the renewable energy sector.
13:30And in it, artificial intelligence.
13:33These are the two new sectors.
13:36And apart from this,
13:39these are our new age companies.
13:42And these three new sectors,
13:45on top of them,
13:49the market is expecting
13:52encouraging provisions in this budget.
13:55And definitely,
13:58if it comes,
14:01and even if there is no encouraging provision,
14:04still, I think these companies will do well.
14:07We see that the allocation of the defense sector
14:10is always increased in the budget.
14:13So, what are your thoughts on defense this time?
14:16What will be the impact of this allocation?
14:19And what are the shares that can be boosted?
14:22As far as the orders are coming,
14:25and their announcements are happening,
14:28the shares are Bharat Electronics,
14:31BEL, HAL, and Bharat Dynamics.
14:34These are becoming the favorites.
14:37And then Mezgon Dock.
14:40They have made a mark for themselves in shipbuilding.
14:43In the same way, the railway shares,
14:46which include IRFC, IRANDA,
14:49IRCTC,
14:52and apart from that,
14:55the other railway related shares,
14:58there is hope for good growth in all of them.
15:01If the government increases its budget
15:04in any of these two areas,
15:07then growth will be a little faster.
15:10Sir, what is your opinion on IT stocks?
15:13What do you think can be the focus of the government
15:16on technology and digitization this time?
15:19I think it is a focus on a continuous basis.
15:22But the companies that will go ahead
15:25in Artificial Intelligence,
15:28they have more chances of appreciation.
15:31Because world over now,
15:34there is an increased emphasis on Artificial Intelligence.
15:37Even Mr. Trump has formed
15:40a separate advisory group
15:43who will be investing
15:46about $1,000 billion
15:49to introduce these new areas
15:52of Artificial Intelligence.
15:55And this group is consisting of people
15:58who are among the top in the world
16:01who are going to be a part of this
16:04recommendation to the US government.
16:07So once Indian companies also who are going to develop
16:10expertise in these areas,
16:13they will be more appreciated.
16:16This time, the demand of experts and the industry
16:19is that the focus of the government
16:22should be on increasing consumption.
16:25So what do you think,
16:28can the government make any announcement
16:31on how much money is remaining
16:34in the hands of the buyer?
16:37If your inflation keeps on increasing
16:40and your taxes keep on increasing,
16:43then the same amount of money
16:46will be reduced in the hands of the buyer.
16:49Secondly, there are two kinds of consumption patterns.
16:52One pattern is which is perishable,
16:55in which you do not create any long-term asset
16:58and its value remains the same.
17:01So if there is consumption there,
17:04then its value is limited.
17:07But if we are going for the consumption pattern,
17:10I think to a large extent India still needs
17:13a number of automobiles,
17:16then household goods
17:19like white goods and all.
17:22And in all these things,
17:25if a normal government employee
17:28and a normal employee gets more money,
17:31then definitely a consumption pattern will increase.
17:34After the budget,
17:37what can we anticipate about the reaction
17:40of the FIIs,
17:43what can be their reaction after the budget?
17:46Why should the FIIs come back immediately?
17:49Neither are they getting the advantage of taxation,
17:52they will come back only after the dollar
17:55will become stronger.
17:58And India will be offered by which
18:01the Indian industry will start growing more.
18:04So if the valuation
18:07of these companies
18:10is going to go down,
18:13then naturally FIIs will like to wait
18:16before entering again.
18:20But if it goes down a lot,
18:23then the domestic investors
18:26and the new class of investors
18:29who invested their money,
18:32they will face a lot of losses in the market.
18:49Not compromising with the political objective of the government.
18:52The political party
18:55that is coming,
18:58right from the birth of the child
19:01till the time they are at the fag end,
19:04the same money cannot be invested
19:07into productive assets,
19:10cannot be invested into the infrastructure.
19:13So how will the growth happen?
19:16Now if we talk about the investment strategy,
19:19then what can be the investment strategy
19:22for the budget of our investors?
19:25And what will be your budget picks
19:28if you can tell the investment rationals of each pick?
19:31Technically, the market closes above 23,500.
19:34Then there could be a short-term rally.
19:37The sectors after the budget
19:40depend on the budget.
19:43So is there a sector that you think
19:46needs to be avoided?
19:49If we really take
19:52a guesswork,
19:55then you can definitely
19:58bet on
20:01companies with artificial intelligence,
20:04renewable energy, power sectors,
20:07government PSUs and telecom.
20:10So these are 5 sectors
20:13in which broadly one can pick up
20:16those stocks which have come down a lot.
20:19I think they can give them some money.
20:22But again I would say that
20:25unless the market closes
20:28above 23,500
20:31then there is a short-term gain.
20:34So according to you,
20:37what will be the target of the market
20:40before the budget closes?
20:48The direction of the market
20:51is not upward at the moment.
20:54You can give these figures when you know
20:57that the market is technically very strong
21:00and it is going to discount the future.
21:03Everyone has given so many losses
21:06that if they want to come back to the market
21:09to recover their losses,
21:12they will not come in a hurry.
21:15October, November, December, January
21:18in these 3.5 to 4 months
21:21everybody has lost
21:24a lot of money.
21:27I mean their yearly profits.
21:30So naturally this time the advance tax
21:33If we had given advance tax
21:36for the quarter of September
21:39at that time everybody was in heavy profits.
21:42Now people are not having
21:45a number of them have lost their
21:48initial profits totally.
21:51So what we have understood now is that
21:54we cannot guess much about the market
21:57because the market is very volatile.
22:00I would advise your listeners
22:03not to be very aggressive buyers
22:06expecting that there will be a big rally.
22:09So those who want to put their money
22:12let it be presented. Let the budget be understood.
22:15Let the budget be analyzed by experts in the country
22:18and then one can feel that
22:21this is the direction which the budget is giving.
22:24I mean the next swing day is on 27th.
22:27So instead of this Monday
22:30if we will take the next Monday
22:33after the budget there is not going to be
22:36much loss.
22:39So you don't have to be an aggressive buyer.
22:42Wait a little bit for the budget.
22:45Wait a little bit for the budget.
22:48The direction ahead will be decided in this way
22:51what are the announcements in the budget.
22:54Thank you very much for giving us such
22:57insightful information to talk to us.
23:00Thank you very much.
23:03So all right now you have heard Mr. Vijay Mehta
23:06which is an advice for all of you
23:09if you are an investor trader
23:12you don't have to do aggressive buying.
23:15Now the market is not looking very good already.
23:18We are seeing every day how the market breaks
23:21and then there is a fall of heavy stocks.
23:24So in this case it is very important for you
23:27that you do not become aggressive now.
23:30Do not be too dependent on the budget
23:33because the rally is very much to be seen.
23:36All the experts we are talking to
23:39I am coming out of them that a lot of rally
23:42pre-budget rally was always seen.
23:45It will not be seen this time.
23:48Keep it safe with you.
23:51There will be a good time ahead when you have to invest.
23:54We have already told you through trading
23:57that there may be a fall in the market by March-April.
24:00Therefore, whenever you invest
24:03take the advice of your financial advisor
24:06and do not take any decision in a hurry.
24:09That's all in this episode.
24:12We will meet you again in the next episode of Future Focus Budget 2025.
24:16What are the expectations regarding the budget?
24:19If you want to know about the analysis of the budget,
24:22post-budget analysis, then on Goodreturns
24:25On February 1, 2025, we will be full day live.
24:28You can go to all our channels
24:31and see the full analysis of the budget.
24:34What is your try? Comment.
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24:43Thank you for watching us.