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00:00Tetsuo Kotani, Professor of International Relations at the U.S. Academy of Sciences
00:11Good morning.
00:12Good morning.
00:13This is the January 25th edition of the Saturday News.
00:16Let me introduce today's guest.
00:20Tetsuo Kotani, Professor of International Relations at the U.S. Academy of Sciences.
00:25Good morning.
00:26Thank you for having me.
00:28Daisuke Kondo, Professor at the U.S. Academy of Sciences.
00:35Thank you for joining us.
00:38Let's take a look at today's headlines.
00:43Here is today's topic.
00:44The Trump Administration's Re-Opening of the U.S.-China Conflict.
00:50Mr. Yamakawa.
00:51Well, there is a lot of news every day since the administration was formally appointed,
00:57but today I'd like to focus on the U.S.-China relations.
01:00What is going to happen?
01:03Will there be a crack?
01:05Or will the situation worsen?
01:07The whereabouts of the Chinese Communist Party
01:10and the security guarantees.
01:12I'd like to focus on those areas and the U.S.-China relations.
01:18Also, this week there was a raise in daily wages.
01:21Yes, that's right.
01:23So far, the market has been in a pretty good shape.
01:30Last summer, the market was in a pretty bad shape,
01:34but this time it seems to be calm.
01:39Now, after the commercial break, we'll move on to a special topic.
01:42Let's take a look at the U.S.-China relations, which Mr. Trump sees as the most important issue.
01:48U.S.-China Relations
02:05On the 20th, Mr. Trump officially became President of the United States.
02:11On the day of his return to the presidency,
02:15he signed more than 40 presidential decrees.
02:19None of them included any tariffs.
02:33And then...
02:41For this reason,
02:44President Trump said that it was a countermeasure
02:48based on the fact that China was sending fentanyl, a synthetic drug, to Mexico and Canada.
02:54It is said that the timing may be from February 1st.
03:00On the 17th, before the President took office,
03:04Mr. Trump had a phone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping
03:09and discussed issues such as the economic downturn and the Taiwan issue.
03:14After the conversation, he posted on SNS that he was looking forward to solving many issues
03:19that were very good for both sides.
03:26On the other hand, he said that he was completely swayed by China.
03:33Trump's strategy is already fully deployed.
03:39At the Davos conference, which he attended online,
03:49he made further demands on China.
03:55Mr. Trump is determined to visit China within 100 days of his inauguration as President,
04:02so what kind of deal will he make at that time?
04:08On the other hand, how will Xi Jinping deal with this?
04:15On the 21st, just after Mr. Trump's inauguration,
04:19President Xi Jinping of China and President Putin of Russia had a meeting online.
04:26Xi emphasized that he will deal with the uncertainty of the external environment
04:31through a stable and strong China-Russia relationship.
04:36It is seen that he is aiming to form America.
04:41What will happen to the US-China relationship in the second Trump administration?
04:50The second Trump administration has started.
04:53In today's special, we will talk about the relationship between China and the US.
04:57The first question is, how far will the additional tariffs go?
05:01Just before his inauguration, President Trump held a phone call with Xi Jinping of China.
05:07The content of the meeting was that the trade imbalance,
05:10China-style video app TikTok, synthetic drug fentanyl,
05:14and Ukraine-Palestine situation, etc.
05:18It is also reported that the meeting was carried out at the request of the American side.
05:23President Trump said on his SNS that it is a good call for China and the US.
05:30In addition, the Wall Street Journal said that President Xi is eager to visit China within 100 days of his inauguration.
05:38The State Department said that it hopes that the Sino-US relationship will have a positive start.
05:47First of all, I would like to ask how the two leaders see each other and what the compatibility is.
05:55Mr. Kotani, how does Mr. Trump view Xi Jinping?
06:00I think he is an opponent who can make a deal.
06:05I've been with him for four years, and I've met him many times.
06:11I think he is an opponent who can make a deal.
06:16I think he has a kind of longing for China.
06:19Xi Jinping is actually a dictator, but the US president is not a dictator.
06:26I think he had a longing for the first term.
06:29The second term, Mr. Trump has strengthened his authority,
06:33so I think he's going to be more equal.
06:38I think he's going to be more equal.
06:43I think he's going to be more equal.
06:48I think he's going to be more equal.
06:53I think he's going to be more equal.
06:58I think he's going to be more equal.
07:03The news that Xi Jinping is going to be in office within 100 days is a bit of a shake-up.
07:11The news that Xi Jinping is going to be in office within 100 days is a bit of a shake-up.
07:16Mr. Kondo, Mr. Trump won the presidential election, so how do you see him?
07:24I think he's a scary guy.
07:28I think he's a scary guy as a social fighter.
07:32He has been beaten by the Trump administration or the Trump president.
07:38I think I think he has been beaten by the Trump administration or the Trump president.
07:43I think Biden-Harris is an unexpected, unpredictable, powerful regime,
07:50which is what I'm saying that he's making it a bit more�장gled.
07:54As an ally, you don't have much interest in forming an alliance with the Western countries to create a defense network.
08:02You don't have much interest in how much you want to protect Taiwan.
08:07In a sense, if you're going to make a deal, Trump may be easier to work with.
08:13There are experts who think that way.
08:15But you don't think that way and you don't like it.
08:18It would be nice if China could take the initiative and make a deal.
08:23But they can't.
08:25If Trump takes the initiative, it will be a very disadvantageous deal for China.
08:32So I don't think it's a good idea.
08:36And the main focus of the deal is tariffs, additional tariffs.
08:41President Trump said during the election that he would impose a 60% tariff on all goods in China.
08:47After the election, he said he would impose a 10% tariff on all goods.
08:51For this reason, President Trump said at a press conference after his inauguration that he would impose a 10% tariff on China based on the fact that China is sending fentanyl, synthetic drugs, to Mexico and Canada.
09:03He said February 1st would be a good day.
09:07Mr. Kotani, you said 60% at first, but now it's 10%.
09:13Why is that?
09:15One reason is that there is a short-term problem with TikTok and fentanyl that needs to be solved.
09:25As a shake-up for that, I'm saying 10% tariff.
09:29I'm not giving up on the 60% tariff at all.
09:33It is seen as a maximum of 10% that the current administration can do.
09:39In order to increase the 60% tariff, it is necessary to remove China from the re-warning system.
09:45This requires a legal measure.
09:48The U.S. has to pass a law.
09:50If we don't wait for it to pass, we can't go up to 60%.
09:54I'm thinking of it as a medium-to-long term.
09:58However, the ultimate goal is to reduce the gap between the U.S. and China.
10:03The goal is to reduce the gap between the U.S. and China.
10:09I'm sure we'll be aiming for 60% or 100% in the next four years.
10:17The way the world is looking at it right now,
10:20At first, we raised the fist of 60%, but 10% is quite a bit of a shake-up.
10:27For example, there is a view that it is quite a bit of a shake-up because of the influence of the market.
10:34This is simply the case in the current legal framework.
10:38First of all, we need to bring in reasons such as fentanyl.
10:42The U.S. is in a state where it can only say up to 10%.
10:45If the law doesn't change or the U.S. doesn't pass, we can't go up to 10%.
10:50That's the only way to break it up.
10:53That's right. 60% or 100% is the ultimate goal.
10:58We will definitely do this, but it is necessary to take it step by step.
11:03A legal measure is also necessary.
11:06Is it possible to introduce 10% in February?
11:13U.S. Representative Greer of the U.S.T.R. is a person who interprets that up to 10% is possible under the current presidency of the President.
11:22I'm sure we'll do it on February 1st.
11:25The 25% commitment to Mexico and Canada is China.
11:32China's fentanyl issue and China's electric car development in Mexico and Canada are the goals.
11:40China's commitment to China has already begun.
11:44So the possibility of February is high, including Mexico and Canada.
11:48I think it's high.
11:50Now that Mr. Greer has mentioned it, I'd like to take a look at the improvements.
11:54The news is that there are people who are in favor of increasing tariffs at once.
12:02There are also people who are in favor of narrowing the product to a certain extent.
12:08The one who is in charge of negotiating is the Minister of Commerce, Mr. Ratonik, and Mr. Greer of the U.S.T.R.
12:19We've divided them into the strong and the weak.
12:23Mr. Ratonik, what do you think is going on?
12:25Who is in charge now?
12:29First of all, the Trump administration cannot go against Trump's policy.
12:35If Trump says he's going to do it, he has to do it.
12:38Even if he's someone who thinks he should do it at a certain stage,
12:42if Trump tells him to do it, he has to do it.
12:45We're in an environment where we can't give him advice on what to do at what stage.
12:50I'm sure there's a group of people who are in favor of increasing tariffs.
12:56The biggest problem is when Trump says he's going to do it.
13:02I don't think it's going to be more realistic if the strong are more influential.
13:10The center is Vice President Vance.
13:14He's the one who's going to cut off the economy in the U.S. and get the manufacturing industry back from China.
13:20He's the one who's going to revive the manufacturing industry in the U.S.
13:26I'm sure there are various approaches, but I think there's one more thing we're aiming for.
13:30Mr. Kondo, as Mr. Kotani said,
13:34What kind of response will China have when the complete withdrawal begins?
13:39Will they retaliate?
13:41Will they respond to that to some extent?
13:44For example, will they resolve the trade deficit?
13:47Will they come up with various tricks?
13:49First of all, I think it depends on the time.
13:52February 1st is the Chinese New Year's Day.
13:58It's New Year's Day on the 4th.
14:00So everyone's off.
14:02It's New Year's Day on the 4th.
14:04So if it's done at this time, it's a big problem.
14:08Everyone's off.
14:11And then from March 5th, the National People's Congress.
14:17The National People's Congress.
14:18The National People's Congress.
14:19It's held once a year for about a week.
14:21It's the season for politics.
14:24If it's done from the second half of February to the first half of March,
14:28I think it's going to be very tough to keep the country going.
14:34Otherwise, the Xi Jinping administration will be like,
14:36What are you doing?
14:38It's going to be pushed up.
14:39The economy is very bad right now.
14:41So it's bound to be tough.
14:44After that, I think we'll be able to have a little more room to talk.
14:48I think it's a situation where we can make a deal.
14:51When the first Trump administration had this complete withdrawal,
14:55The first, second, and fourth stages.
14:59At first, the same amount of money was spent on China's return on investment.
15:04At the end of the day, China had less import from the United States.
15:09So they couldn't get the same amount of import.
15:13So I think there's a lot of money at the moment.
15:17I think it's a countermeasure to get the same amount of money back when it's 10%.
15:24I think they're going to narrow down the target.
15:27I think they're going to narrow it down to agricultural products.
15:30Corn, soybeans, beef, things like that.
15:33They're going to start import restrictions around here.
15:35The Ministry of Commerce is already preparing for that.
15:38I think they're going to narrow it down in that direction first.
15:43So, one thing.
15:45I'm guessing it's going to be a complete escalation.
15:49Yes, here it is.
15:51Is it the ratio of trade between China and the United States?
15:54It's the prediction of the Eurasia Group.
15:57That's right.
15:58The Eurasia Group, a U.S. research company led by international political scientist Ian Bremmer,
16:02The third major risk that the Eurasia Group poses every year is the U.S.-China bloodline.
16:08The threat of a 60% reduction in all products will not be realized.
16:13The maximum tax rate for some products is immediately reduced from 50% to 60%.
16:18Or more than that.
16:20By the end of 2025, the average tax rate for all imports from China will be around 25%.
16:30Mr. Kotani, based on the prediction of the Eurasia Group,
16:35Of course, they'll choose the items.
16:37They'll choose the items that can be reduced to 60%.
16:41But as a whole,
16:43I predict that the average tax rate will be around 25% by the end of the year.
16:53Mr. Kotani, what do you think?
16:55That's right.
16:57As I said earlier,
16:59The U.S.-China economy will be cut off.
17:02The U.S. manufacturing industry in China will be restored.
17:05This is the biggest goal of this Trump administration.
17:12The U.S. will pay a high tax on the manufacturing industry.
17:16Especially in the high-tech industry,
17:19I think the U.S. will pay a high tax on the manufacturing industry.
17:25But Mr. Kotani,
17:26So far, we've seen a lot of negative numbers for the global economy and the market.
17:34I think Trump is very serious about the stock market.
17:38Don't you think that the stock market will be affected by this?
17:46Of course, at this stage,
17:49First of all, inflation is the biggest concern.
17:54But the first wave of inflation was completely eliminated.
17:57But inflation hasn't been that bad.
18:00So I think it's okay.
18:02In fact, the inflation rate has increased.
18:05I'm not an economist, so I don't know if this is going to work out.
18:19But if there is innovation in the U.S. while paying a high tax and paying a high tax,
18:27I think the U.S. economy will grow even if the U.S. economy is cut off from China by inflation.
18:35Mr. Kondo, let's say that the U.S. economy is cut off from China by an average of 25%.
18:41Even if the U.S. economy is cut off, the Chinese economy will be affected, right?
18:45Yes, that's right.
18:46The Chinese economy is made up of consumption, investment, and export.
18:51Last year, the consumption was 3.5% and the investment was 3.2%.
18:56The export was 7.1%.
18:59But this will also decrease with inflation, so I think it will be a very tight situation.
19:05China's strategy is to bring it to a self-sustaining battle.
19:10The longer it goes, the longer it goes.
19:12The Trump administration has been popular for four years.
19:15Two years later, there will be a midterm election.
19:17So I think the momentum will gradually decrease.
19:22I think it's a strategy to bring it to a long-term battle, not a self-sustaining battle.
19:30Let's look at the situation of trade.
19:32China is also preparing for various things.
19:35As you can see, since the birth of the Xi Jinping administration,
19:39the number of exports and imports has been increasing little by little,
19:42and then the Biden administration came to power.
19:44And then there was a pull-up in tariffs.
19:47So what this graph shows is that
19:51when you look at it from China's perspective,
19:53it shows the ratio of the entire US trade,
19:57but it's going down.
19:59And then even after the Biden administration,
20:01it's going down a lot from the middle.
20:04But this is actually through Mexico or Asia.
20:09So there's a suspicion that China's exports to the U.S. are going down.
20:14What do you think about this, Mr. Kotani?
20:17Yes.
20:18The one who has been paying the most attention to the fact that it is going down
20:24is Mr. Rubio, who became the Secretary of State this time.
20:27As a member of the House of Representatives,
20:29he submitted a bill to stop China from exporting to the U.S.
20:37So this time, not just the direct trade between the U.S. and China,
20:42but also the trade through third countries,
20:46I think we will be more active in preventing those holes.
20:55What you're saying to Mexico this time is
20:58about fentanyl and illegal immigration,
21:01but one thing is that you're trying to prevent China from entering the U.S.
21:05Both are important issues for the Trump administration,
21:08but we're actually trying to prevent them from entering the U.S.
21:15Yes.
21:16After the commercial break, let's take a look at the security guarantees.
21:29First, we've looked at safety.
21:32Now, let's look at the international situation.
21:35How will the U.S. deal with Taiwan and Ukraine?
21:39First, President Trump said he would end the Trump administration in 24 hours,
21:47but in a press conference on January 7,
21:50he said he would like to end it as soon as possible,
21:54six months from his inauguration.
21:56He said to Russia,
21:57Stop this stupid war right now.
22:00If you don't make a deal right away,
22:02you have no choice but to impose high-level sanctions.
22:07He said on social media.
22:09He hopes China will help him to stop the war against China.
22:14If it goes well, he will cooperate and stop the war.
22:17He said at the Tavos conference.
22:20Mr. Kotani, there are various stories about the Ukraine situation,
22:25but you want China and Xi Jinping to take action.
22:30You seem to have a lot in common, including on the phone.
22:34How do you see it?
22:36I don't think this is a strong expectation.
22:40However, in order to stop the war against Ukraine,
22:43it is necessary to push Russia into a difficult economic position
22:48and call for a ceasefire.
22:51Since China is buying Russian oil,
22:54it is getting more and more difficult.
22:57First of all, I think it's time to put pressure on them to stop it.
23:03However, we know that China will not accept it.
23:08I think this should be considered as one of the pressures on China.
23:16In the first place, you said it was within 24 hours,
23:20but now it is within 6 months.
23:23Do you feel that it is difficult to understand the reality?
23:29First of all, 24 hours is a speech during the election,
23:33so it was a rhetoric.
23:36Mr. Kiskelov, who is already in charge of Russia and Ukraine,
23:40has been working since before he took office.
23:44It seems that the reaction of the Russian side is not as good as expected.
23:49Mr. Kellogg is within 100 days,
23:52and Mr. Trump is within 6 months.
23:55It seems that the goal has been changed a little.
23:59It seems that Russia is not getting on well with the United States.
24:07Mr. Kondo, in China,
24:10of course, you are in talks with Russia and President Putin.
24:15Do you think that the Trump administration will be able to move in the near future?
24:23Or do you think they will not accept it at all?
24:26I think so.
24:28As for the Xi Jinping administration,
24:30there was a North Korean trauma in April 2017.
24:34Even in the first Xi Jinping-Trump talks in Maharashtra,
24:39he was asked to do something about North Korea.
24:42In the end, North Korea did not move as China thought,
24:46so the Trump administration was very retaliated.
24:50Russia is a big country,
24:53and it is a sovereign state.
24:56Of course, we don't listen to what China says completely,
25:00but we do what we have to do.
25:03I don't think we have made any strong promises.
25:07The biggest fear of China is that the United States and Russia will form an alliance.
25:15I think we should avoid that and do what we can to make a bridge for the Trump administration.
25:21I think we will proceed with a subtle win-win approach.
25:24Even now, when the United States and Russia are getting closer,
25:28except for China,
25:30I can't imagine such a thing.
25:33Is there such a fear from the Chinese side?
25:36This happened in 2017.
25:39I don't think it was President Harris,
25:42but I don't know what President Trump is going to do.
25:45In 1972, President Nixon and China were in a Nixon shock.
25:52Russia was depressed because of that.
25:54I always have a sense of crisis that Russia may do the opposite.
25:58I call it the reverse Nixon.
26:00It's the worst scenario.
26:03I think China is doing everything it can to prevent Russia from becoming a part of the Chinese economy.
26:10China is trying to prevent the Chinese-Russian relationship from going beyond the US-Russia relationship.
26:16Mr. Kotari, what do you think of Mr. Kondo's point?
26:20The Trump administration is aiming for a mutual understanding between China and Russia.
26:26As long as the war in Ukraine continues, China will continue to support Russia.
26:36North Korea and Iran will continue to support Russia.
26:39If the ceasefire is implemented,
26:42there will be a chance for the four countries to split up.
26:49If the ceasefire is implemented,
26:51the relationship between China and the United States will improve,
26:54and the economic situation will improve.
26:57In some cases, China may return to the G7 or G8.
27:02That's what I think.
27:04If China is the most common rival,
27:08it is aiming to isolate China.
27:12Let's move on to Taiwan.
27:15There is a difference between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden when it comes to Taiwan.
27:20Mr. Trump said,
27:22if Mr. Xi goes to Taiwan,
27:25he will pay 150 to 200 percent of the tax.
27:29Mr. Xi knows that I'm pretty crazy,
27:32so I'm not going to use military force.
27:36There is no statement about whether or not to protect Taiwan.
27:40On the other hand,
27:41Mr. Biden said several times that he would not eliminate military force for Taiwan defense.
27:48Mr. Kotani, Mr. Biden's statement was often said to be an appearance or a confirmation.
27:54Mr. Trump doesn't use the word protect Taiwan, does he?
28:00This is exactly what Mr. Biden might have said,
28:04but he said he would protect it,
28:06so Mr. Trump reversed it and left it vague.
28:10However, if China goes to Taiwan,
28:14or if the economy is closed,
28:17he will pay the tax,
28:20and the United States has the best military force in the world,
28:23so he is trying to take advantage of it.
28:26However, during the election period,
28:29Mr. Trump said that if he were the president,
28:31the war in Ukraine would not have happened,
28:33and the war in Gaza would not have happened.
28:36However, if a war breaks out in Taiwan in 2027,
28:40which is the third year of the Trump administration,
28:43a major war will break out there,
28:45so it will be contradictory to his statement during the election.
28:50At least, in order not to allow Taiwan to advance in his popularity,
28:55he will strengthen his military force,
28:59and if China advances in Taiwan,
29:02he will stop it with all his might.
29:04Mr. Obama, regarding Taiwan,
29:08Mr. Ooki and Mr. Rubio,
29:11I heard them talking about it,
29:13and it sounds as if they are trying to get rid of it.
29:16I don't think China will completely stop Taiwan,
29:22but what do you think about that?
29:24That's right.
29:25Even for President Trump,
29:27even for Secretary of State Rubio,
29:29he will continue to say that Taiwan is the most revolutionary country.
29:36On the other hand, for Taiwan,
29:38I heard this week from the people involved in the Rai Seitoku administration,
29:43that they have great expectations for Secretary of State Rubio.
29:47He came to Taiwan in 2020,
29:50and at that time, Mr. Rai Seitoku was the vice president,
29:53and he was very enthusiastic about it.
29:55He said that Taiwan will definitely protect America,
29:58and he will continue to do so.
30:00So, it seems that Taiwan is really depending on Mr. Rubio.
30:04That's the impression I have.
30:06Let's take a look at the facial expression of the reformist.
30:11The one on the left is Secretary of State Rubio.
30:15This person is very popular in the media,
30:18and he is also famous in the parliament.
30:20Mr. Kondo was here just now,
30:22but instead of making Taiwan a strategic ambiguity,
30:26he said that Taiwan should clearly say that it has a duty to defend itself,
30:30or that Japan should clearly say that it is a territory of Japan.
30:36He is a person who has spoken so far,
30:38and there is quite a bit of expectation from Japan.
30:41On the contrary, China has already banned entry.
30:44That's right.
30:46Mr. Kotani, in a sense, Mr. Rubio has expectations,
30:51but in this US-China relationship,
30:54how should we look at it?
30:57Mr. Rubio is used to being the Secretary of State,
31:02but his position in the administration is not that strong.
31:07In particular, he has low trust in the family of Mr. Trump.
31:14Looking at the inauguration ceremony the other day,
31:17all the family members of Mr. Trump shake hands with other reformists,
31:22except for Mr. Rubio.
31:24Why do they hate him so much?
31:26Mr. Rubio once made a negative statement against Mr. Trump,
31:31and he was a challenger in the presidential election.
31:34His family does not allow this.
31:37No one thought that Mr. Rubio would be the Secretary of State for a long time,
31:43and Mr. Grenell, who is now a North Korean special envoy,
31:48is already preparing to become the Secretary of State.
31:51Does this mean that Mr. Rubio will not reach the point
31:55where he can develop foreign policy on his own?
31:58No, he will not.
32:00He is at a stage where he is at the corner of Mr. Trump's choice.
32:04Yesterday, he issued a notice to the State Department
32:08to stop all overseas support, except for Israel,
32:12and to stop Ukraine and Taiwan for three months.
32:16This is probably not what Mr. Trump wants,
32:20and Mr. Trump denies overseas support,
32:24so he made too many choices,
32:26and I think he will be criticized by Trump soon,
32:30but I don't think he is reading the room.
32:34I don't think he can be the Secretary of State for a long time.
32:39And another topic is Greenland and Panama.
32:47Mr. Kotani, where is Mr. Trump's goal here?
33:01The ultimate goal is to put pressure on Panama
33:05because Hong Kong companies are now suppressing the Panama Canal.
33:11It's probably a good idea to put pressure on Panama
33:15and cut the relationship there.
33:17In Greenland, Chinese companies are already developing
33:21infrastructure, energy resources, and mineral resources,
33:25so I think it's a good idea to put pressure on Denmark
33:29and Greenland to stop them,
33:31and American companies will go in the opposite direction.
33:35So you're saying you're going to buy a high-priced ball,
33:39and that's the ultimate goal, right?
33:41Yes, I think so.
33:42But I don't want people to think this is a bluff,
33:45so I'm going to buy Greenland seriously,
33:50and I'm not going to lose my position
33:52that I'm going to take control of the Panama Canal.
33:55Mr. Kondo, what do you think of China in these two cases?
33:58Basically, the US military has come to the border with China,
34:03and it's surrounded by the United States, Japan, and South Korea,
34:07but China hasn't come out to the US at all.
34:10It's coming from here.
34:12When the US was in the Cold War,
34:14the Soviet Union dominated Cuba,
34:16and they wanted to take over the US,
34:19especially the strong parties that supported the People's Liberation Army.
34:22So in November of last year,
34:26China built a huge port called Chiang Kai in Peru,
34:31and it's going to be built in a way that can be used as a military port in the future.
34:36So they want to put pressure on the US,
34:38not just to protect the US,
34:40but also to attack the US,
34:43and I think that's what they're doing,
34:46like a salami tactics.
34:49So the fact that Mr. Trump said this this time
34:51means that he's tired of the pain.
34:53That's right.
34:54I thought it would come someday,
34:56but I think it was too soon.
35:00After the commercial break,
35:02I wonder how Mr. Elon Musk,
35:04who has a strong trust in Mr. Trump,
35:06will affect the midterms.
35:11We've seen the US move,
35:13but let's move on to the third theme.
35:15The third is about the influence of Mr. Elon Musk.
35:19Mr. Elon Musk is the CEO of EV company Tesla,
35:23but he also has a presence in the Trump administration.
35:26According to the inauguration ceremony,
35:28Mr. Musk visited the United States
35:30and negotiated with China's Kansai National Welfare Center
35:32to deepen investment and cooperation with China
35:34and play an active role in the US economic and trade policy.
35:40Tesla, which is the CEO, is also selling well,
35:43with 1.79 million units sold worldwide in 2024,
35:48of which about 40% are Chinese customers.
35:52In addition, not only Elon Musk,
35:54but also his mother, Ms. May Musk,
35:56is also popular in China.
35:58She was a bestseller in the past,
36:00and has been visiting China regularly
36:02for performances and model business since 2023.
36:06Ms. Kondo, Ms. Musk's mother is also popular.
36:09She was a great bestseller.
36:11She was raised by her husband,
36:13while being a DV.
36:15As the current Chinese economy is deteriorating,
36:20she has become a role model for his mother.
36:26She is a person he admires.
36:28From a foreign point of view,
36:30it seems that he relies on Ms. Musk
36:33and has high expectations of her.
36:35But from a Chinese point of view,
36:37what is Ms. Musk like?
36:39She has a huge electric car factory in Shanghai.
36:45She is a hostage of Tesla.
36:48Ms. Musk is on his side,
36:50and he wants to help her
36:52as much as he can.
36:54He wants to buy time for her.
36:58Mr. Kotani, how much influence does
37:01Ms. Musk have in the government?
37:06At first, it was unclear
37:08what kind of position
37:10she would take in the government.
37:14In the statement,
37:16it was stated that she would
37:18take advice from outside the government.
37:22But in the current presidential order,
37:25it was decided to make her
37:27an official member of the government.
37:30Ms. Musk also has an account
37:32in the White House,
37:34so she is a government official.
37:37But she has no record of
37:39quitting her position as Tesla.
37:42So there is a problem
37:44with her profit sharing.
37:46It seems that the problem
37:48is not being solved at all.
37:51However, the biggest reason
37:53why Ms. Musk has been
37:55close to Mr. Trump
37:57is that they are both
37:59members of the Republican Party,
38:02but they don't have
38:04that much of a difference.
38:07In particular, if two members
38:09of the Republican Party
38:11are in favor of Ms. Musk,
38:13the law won't pass.
38:15The biggest reason
38:17why Ms. Musk is close
38:19to Mr. Trump is that
38:21if a member of the Republican Party
38:23is in favor of Ms. Musk,
38:25Ms. Musk will support
38:27the opposition candidate
38:29with a huge amount of money
38:31and threaten to
38:33overthrow him in the next election.
38:35So she is looking at
38:37whether or not to support
38:39Ms. Musk in the next election.
38:41It's obvious that Ms. Musk
38:43will be dismissed
38:45because she stands out too much,
38:47but isn't that the case?
38:49That's right.
38:51It's like the Stargate
38:53where SoftBank is involved.
38:55They are criticizing
38:57the new AI framework.
38:59But Trump doesn't seem
39:01to be in favor of it at all.
39:03Of course, in the administration,
39:05there is a lot of jealousy
39:07against Ms. Musk,
39:09but Trump's eldest son,
39:11Mr. Junior,
39:13and Mr. Burns
39:15have a very close relationship
39:17with Ms. Musk,
39:19so I think they will
39:21maintain their influence.
39:23However, on the outside,
39:25they don't give
39:27Ms. Musk much authority
39:29or influence,
39:31so they seem to be in agreement.
39:33But I don't think
39:35Ms. Musk will have
39:37a say in the midterm elections.
39:39In the case of China,
39:41she should be more careful
39:43about her influence,
39:45so I don't think
39:47Ms. Musk will have
39:49much influence.
39:51No.
39:53In fact,
39:55Ms. Musk will be
39:57given the role
39:59of a kind officer,
40:01so I think she will
40:03take strict measures
40:05against China.
40:07One of the things
40:09that Ms. Musk is also
40:11concerned about is
40:13TikTok.
40:15Yes.
40:17On the 19th,
40:19TikTok was banned
40:21in China,
40:23and the service
40:25was suspended
40:27from the 18th.
40:29Mr. Kondo,
40:31the Chinese side
40:33has no choice
40:35but to sell
40:37this business
40:39to the American side,
40:41so I think
40:43Ms. Musk
40:45should be the one
40:47to discuss this.
40:49What do you think?
40:51First of all,
40:53TikTok is
40:55a company
40:57owned by a private company
40:59in China,
41:01so there is no reason
41:03for the Chinese government
41:05or the Chinese Communist Party
41:07to say anything about it.
41:09However,
41:11it has become
41:13a part of the American deal.
41:15As for TikTok,
41:17in China,
41:19at the end of last year,
41:21a founder named
41:23Zhao Yiming
41:25said that TikTok
41:27was the most unprofitable
41:29in China.
41:31Next year,
41:33the Chinese government
41:35will issue a bonus
41:37once a year,
41:39but the bonus
41:41will be halved
41:43compared to last year.
41:45This has become a hot topic,
41:47and people are worried
41:49that TikTok
41:51will be sold
41:53in China.
41:55What do you think
41:57about TikTok?
41:59Mr. Trump himself
42:01has never used TikTok,
42:03so he may
42:05try it next time.
42:07Mr. Trump's son,
42:09Mr. Barron,
42:11told me that
42:13TikTok is very popular
42:15among the younger generation,
42:17so it is better
42:19to use it.
42:21The younger generation
42:23is using TikTok
42:25to communicate,
42:27and the criticism of Biden
42:29on the Gaza issue
42:31has spread to the younger generation
42:33through TikTok.
42:35Mr. Trump thinks
42:37that TikTok can be used
42:39to spread his ideology,
42:41and since Mr. Biden
42:43tried to stop TikTok,
42:45he wants to gain the support
42:47of the younger generation
42:49to use TikTok.
42:51What will happen
42:53to the Ishiba Diplomacy?
42:55The Ishiba government
42:57aims to have a balanced
42:59diplomacy with the US.
43:01It is said that
43:03it is aiming to end the war
43:05and that the Ishiba prime minister
43:07will cooperate in areas
43:09where it can cooperate
43:11and carry out realistic diplomacy.
43:13However, there are concerns
43:15from the people's Party.
43:17Why did the Ishiba prime minister
43:19decide in a hurry?
43:21Where is the necessity?
43:23I have no doubt about it.
43:25Regarding the visit of
43:27Foreign Minister Iwaya,
43:29the former prime minister
43:31said that if there is time
43:33to go to Southeast Asia,
43:35it is better to go to China
43:37or the state without a government.
43:39Foreign Minister Iwaya
43:41said in a single interview
43:43of the Japan Economic News
43:45that there is no difference
43:47between the two governments.
43:49Mr. Kondo, what do you think
43:51of the current Ishiba government
43:53and the Ishiba diplomacy?
43:55Since the Fukuda-Yasuo Cabinet
43:57in 2007-2008,
43:59the government has been
44:01very understanding of China.
44:03The Democratic Party
44:05had the Hatoyama administration,
44:07but now it is the Liberal Democratic Party.
44:09It is a very effective mood.
44:11I think it is very good.
44:13I think it is very good.
44:15Until recently,
44:17the Abe-Suga-Kishida government
44:19was a very strict government.
44:21Finally, it started to rain
44:23and the ground started to solidify.
44:25I think it is time
44:27for Japan and the U.S.
44:29to work together.
44:31How do you see Japan
44:33in the context of the U.S.-China relationship?
44:35How do you see Japan
44:37in the context of the U.S.-China relationship?
44:39I think it is important
44:41that Japan becomes a partner
44:43of the U.S.
44:45and that Japan
44:47will start to work together
44:49in the context of the U.S.
44:51Japan was a very strong
44:53country in the last year,
44:55and Japan has a position
44:57to compete with the U.S.
44:59Japan has a position
45:01to compete with the U.S.
45:03Japan was a very strong
45:05country in the last year,
45:07and Japan has a position
45:09What is the U.S. position on this?
45:17The Trump administration wants to proceed with a one-size-fits-all strategy against Japan.
45:25I'm not concerned about the exchange of visas,
45:30but if the U.S. expands its economic cooperation with China through the FTA,
45:38the U.S. and China's position on economic security will be further separated.
45:45I think this will be a big blow.
45:49Japan will become a member of the U.S. Congress,
45:53and there will be a meeting between Japan and China.
45:58There will be a lot of discussions on the issue of processing water and the importation of aquaculture.
46:05But if the FTA becomes even more important,
46:09the U.S. will have a hard time dealing with it.
46:14How about economic security?
46:16I think the U.S. will strongly demand that China's trade and investment policies
46:22include economic security.
46:27That's all for this week.
46:29We have an announcement.
46:31Next Tuesday evening, we will be broadcasting the only episode of Caster FGV,
46:37which will go deeper into the topics that were not covered in the program.
46:41You can watch the full episode by registering as a member of Teletubbies.
46:45Our guest this time is Mr. Kondo.
46:47Thank you for joining us.
46:49After the commercial break, we will have market information.
46:58Good evening.
46:59I'm Professor Kazuhiro Maeshima,
47:01and I'll be your host for this week's program.
47:04I'd like to talk about how Japan and the international community
47:07should deal with President Trump,
47:09who has repeatedly issued presidential orders since his inauguration.
47:12Let's take a look.
47:13First, let's take a look at the market.
47:15On the 24th, the Secretary of State of Japan decided
47:18to raise additional funds by 0.5%
47:20during the financial policy meeting.
47:23According to a recent survey,
47:25the amount of money raised from the stock market
47:28will continue to rise,
47:30and the price of yen will continue to rise.
47:34However, the price of yen is high,
47:36and the price of yen has fallen from
47:38155 yen to 156 yen,
47:40which is 5,000 yen.
47:42On the 24th, the New York Dow Jones fell
47:45for the first time in five days.
47:47The price of yen fell to $44,424,
47:49which is $140.
47:52The Nasdaq, which has a high ratio of high-tech stocks,
47:55also fell for the first time in five days.
47:58The Dow Jones dropped by 99 points
48:01and fell to 19,954.
48:04The daily average of the stock market in Chicago
48:07was 4480 yen.
48:09It is about 550 yen higher
48:11than the daily average of the Friday Dow Jones.
48:14And I asked a market official
48:16about the stock price forecast for the end of March.
48:19Ide, a Japanese-based research institute,
48:22predicts 45,000 yen.
48:24Japanese companies are expected to see
48:26a re-trade update in 2024 and 2025,
48:28and the stock price will increase a little.
48:31It is expected that the frequency of placing
48:33in the 40,000 yen range will increase in the spring.
48:35Miura, a water insurance company,
48:37predicts 36,500 yen.
48:39At present, the daily average is 40,000 yen,
48:42and it is expected to be heavy
48:44due to the increase in return sales.
48:46In addition, the U.S. stock market
48:48is expected to be aware of the gas price
48:50and fall.
48:51The future of financial policy
48:53depends on the time and the number of times,
48:55but the U.S. is down and Japan is up.
48:57It is expected that the direction of financial policy
48:59will be different,
49:01so it will be easier to touch the yen
49:03at the end of March.
49:05Now, next week's schedule.
49:07Mr. Kondo, where do you pay attention to?
49:09After all, it's the spring.
49:11From the 28th to the 8th,
49:13more than 9 billion people will move.
49:169 billion people?
49:17Yes, the largest population in the world.
49:19Pay attention to how much consumption
49:21of Chinese cake will move.
49:23In Japan, Japan is the most popular
49:25for overseas travel,
49:27so pay attention to how many
49:29inbound tourists come
49:31and how much they consume in Japan.
49:33Among them, whether there is
49:35a complete withdrawal
49:37is the topic of today's topic.
49:39Thank you both.