The former Secretary General of NATO and the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine discussed ways to reach a just and lasting peace in Ukraine.
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00:00With Ukraine entering the fourth year since the full-scale invasion, tension is turning
00:14to whether an end to the all-out war could come in 2025.
00:19I sat down to discuss it with Andriy Yermak, the head of the Presidential Administration
00:24of Ukraine, and Jens Stoltenberg, former NATO Secretary-General.
00:32Ukraine is entering the fourth year since the invasion in a month, and tension is turning
00:38to whether an end to hostilities could be possible and could come in 2025.
00:43Now, Ukraine's victory plan was presented by Volodymyr Zelensky in 2024 as the key framework
00:49to achieve a just and lasting peace.
00:52Where are we with the peace formula?
00:53Where are we with the plan?
00:54You know, it was very important that during the last year we have the opportunity to realize
01:01this, first of all, initiative of the President, which he announced in the G20 in Bali, its
01:11peace formula.
01:13I want to clarify the peace formula.
01:16It's ten points which necessary implement to have the really opportunity to say that
01:25in juridical sense, in the all-another sense, this war is ended, the just peace restore,
01:35and we settled all the crisis which created this war.
01:41Next, you mentioned the victory plan of President Zelensky.
01:47It's very important, very concrete documents.
01:50What is necessary to do, first of all, for our partners and alliance, to make the position
01:57of Ukraine strong for any potential future negotiations?
02:02It's very important.
02:04Ukraine a victim of aggressions.
02:07We are fighting practically three years against the country who is more than us, who have
02:15the more people, more weapons, and this is nuclear state.
02:20I think all these documents can, it's basic documents in which now in the consultation
02:27with the new administration of the elected President Trump and other alliance, we can
02:34go forward for the concrete steps to prepare, to make position of Ukraine strong, and of
02:42course to go to the end of this war by the just peace.
02:46No more than Ukrainians want to end this war.
02:50Mr. Solberberg, with your tenure at NATO from 2014 to 2024, that's the year of Russia's
02:57first invasion in 2014, and then the full-scale invasion years later.
03:02Do you see we are getting closer to 2025, being able to put an end to it when it comes
03:06to the invasion that started not in 2022, but ten years ago?
03:12Wars are by nature unpredictable, so I'm very careful to predict exactly what will
03:17happen in 2025.
03:19Having said that, it's absolutely within reach to end this war this year, not least because
03:25Russia is paying a very high price.
03:27Yes, the situation is difficult on the battlefield.
03:31Yes, Russia is pushing and gaining some territory, but Russia is also paying a very high price.
03:39You know, this war started, they thought they were able to take Kiev within days and
03:43Ukraine within weeks.
03:45That failed.
03:48The Ukrainians have been able to liberate 50% of the territory that Russia controlled
03:53in the beginning.
03:54They are losing more than 1,000 men per day.
03:58The casualty rate is like 1,000.
04:01Inflation now in Russia is officially around 10%, in reality most likely much higher.
04:08The interest rate in the national bank is 21%, and they have an urgent lack of workforce
04:14because hundreds of thousands, millions have perhaps left the country.
04:20Many are at the front, many casualties, and then many are now working in the defence industries,
04:24so the rest of the economy is really suffering.
04:28So this is not the time to reduce the pressure on Russia.
04:33It's actually the time to step up, to convince them that they have to sit down and negotiate
04:39a just peace, and it's absolutely within reach to convince the United States to continue
04:45the military support to Ukraine.
04:46With Europeans stepping up, that will give Ukraine the military support they need.
04:51To what extent, Mr. Yermak, do you want to see the Europeans stepping up now with the
04:56Americans, ideally, as we're waiting to hear more from the new administration?
05:00First of all, it's necessary to be honest.
05:04Why after the full-scale invasion we with Mike Mayfall decided to create the group for
05:12the sanctions?
05:13Because we saw in the beginning the sanctions which were issued looked very good, but practically
05:22did not work.
05:23The Russian economy is in a bad situation, and it will increase.
05:29It's necessary to continue to work for these sanctions.
05:33But of course, if you ask about the Europeans, President Zelensky was very clear and very
05:39honest in his address yesterday.
05:43We need to keep the unity of Europe.
05:46We absolutely need close cooperation and close unity between European countries and the United States.
05:54And I hope that the meeting between President Zelensky and President Trump will take place
06:01as soon as possible.
06:02But there is, you know, we've heard from Donald Trump during the campaign, so yes, it has
06:07to be looked at as some of the campaign narrative and campaign promises regarding that he would
06:12be able to finish the war in 24 hours, to put an end to it.
06:15Then he, that's the right change we've heard about the first 100 days.
06:19Then we've heard about possibility of rather going into six months.
06:23The views that I've heard are about the anything regarding 24 hours would be the worst case
06:28for Ukraine.
06:29So taking 100 days or six months is a better option for Ukraine.
06:33What do you think?
06:34How can the American administration step in there?
06:36Well, first of all, I think that we need to realize that everyone wants this war to end.
06:43The challenge is that the quickest way of ending a war is to lose a war.
06:47But that will not bring peace.
06:49That will bring occupation of Ukraine.
06:51So the challenge is to end the war in a way that Ukraine prevails as a sovereign independent
06:57nation in Europe.
06:58That's the challenge.
06:59And I don't think we can change Putin's mind.
07:02I believe that Putin has as an ambition to control Ukraine, to put in a puppet government
07:08in Kiev.
07:10But I think we can change his calculus, that if the price he has to pay to achieve that
07:15goal is too high, measured in the number of forces lost on the battlefield every day,
07:21measured in the number of armored vehicles, military equipment lost on the battlefield,
07:27but also measured when it comes to the economic cost, inflation, overheating the economy,
07:34high interest rates, then he may change his calculus and actually be willing and be forced
07:41to sit down and negotiate, agree a just peace for Ukraine.
07:47And the only way to get there, to change his calculus, is to provide weapons to Ukraine.
07:52Do you think we can force Russia to accept that rather than forcing Ukraine to accept
07:58something less favorable for Ukraine?
08:00Look, in this sense, the President Zelensky is very clear.
08:05He never goes for any compromise for the independent territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine.
08:12And why we are talking always that Ukraine need to be strong in any position?
08:19Because honestly, we are fighting practically three years against country which is more
08:27times bigger, more people.
08:31This country not democracy.
08:33Look, Ukraine not ask anything more than described by international law and the treaties which
08:42all the country respect, just for 1%.
08:47And we can explain the arguments, everything which explained in the peace formula in the
08:53victory plan, it's 100% based of the international law.
08:58What kind of security guarantees can we produce when it comes to somehow replacing or substituting
09:05the security guarantees which did not work during the Budapest Memorandum, but also with
09:09the impossibility of having the NATO security guarantees?
09:14Well, I strongly believe that a lasting peace in Ukraine depends on solid security guarantees.
09:25Because the first step towards peace is some kind of ceasefire, at least that's very often
09:31the first step.
09:32And then the line is agreed.
09:35The challenge is that we have seen agreed lines in Ukraine before.
09:40After the annexation of Crimea and Russia went into eastern Donbass in 2014, we got
09:46the Minsk one.
09:48That was a ceasefire line.
09:50The problem was that Russia violated that just after a few months.
09:55And then of course, we need, I say sometimes we need something better than Budapest, but
10:01perhaps it will not be Bucharest, meaning that in Bucharest, NATO promised NATO membership.
10:08In Budapest, we had the Budapest Memorandum that was on some paper and didn't prove credible
10:12at all.
10:13I believe that the strongest and the best security guarantee is Article 5, meaning NATO
10:18membership.
10:20It has worked.
10:22It can work again.
10:23And of course, it's for NATO to decide how far Article 5 apply.
10:30So I strongly believe that one way of ending this war in a credible way, which is not Minsk
10:353, is actually to give strong and credible security guarantees, and then the cleanest
10:41and best way is NATO membership.
10:43Of course, I realize that it is not enthusiasm for this in all capitals.
10:49So then maybe we also have to consider second-best solutions.
10:53And those second-best solutions are first of all, and that will apply anyway, is to
10:58arm the Ukrainians to the teeth.
11:02Because if there was anything we did wrong in 2014, it was that we didn't arm Ukraine
11:07from 2014 until 2022.
11:09Very briefly, I really have a few seconds.
11:11Do you think it was a mistake for Ukraine to give up on nuclear weapons?
11:14I think we have to prove that it was not a mistake, because Andrei is absolutely right,
11:20and that is that if Ukraine loses this war and a nuclear power, Russia, is able to take
11:26control over Ukraine, then the lesson is that you need nuclear weapons to defend yourself.
11:33And it's wrong to give up nuclear weapons.
11:36So that just adds to the importance of us taking the responsibility to provide them
11:41with the weapons they need to defend themselves against nuclear aggression.
11:45Jens Stoltenberg, Andrei Jermak, thank you very much.
11:48Wish we had more time.
11:49Trust me, I have so many questions left on my side too.
11:52I'm sorry.
11:53Thank you very much.
11:54Thanks to the speakers for being here.