Tahun 2024 menjadi tahun yang penuh tantangan bagi industri otomotif Indonesia akibat kondisi ekonomi global dan geopolitik. Kondisi ini membuat Gaikindo merevisi target penjualan mobil tahun 2024 dari 1,1 juta unit menjadi 850.000 unit akibat lesunya pasar.
Meski ekonomi global masih diselimuti ketidakpastian, industri otomotif tanah air diyakini masih memiliki peluang untuk tumbuh di tahun 2025. Oleh karena itu, Gaikindo menargetkan penjualan mobil nasional dapat mencapai 900.000 unit di 2025.
Meski ekonomi global masih diselimuti ketidakpastian, industri otomotif tanah air diyakini masih memiliki peluang untuk tumbuh di tahun 2025. Oleh karena itu, Gaikindo menargetkan penjualan mobil nasional dapat mencapai 900.000 unit di 2025.
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TVTranscript
00:00IDX Economic Outlook 2025
00:22Hello, viewers from IDX Channel Jakarta, I'm Wiki Adrian.
00:25Welcome to IDX Economic Outlook 2025.
00:29This time, we will discuss an interesting topic related to the optimism of the automotive industry
00:33amid the uncertainty of the global economy and geopolitics.
00:36Don't forget, you can also watch our live streaming at idxchannel.com.
00:40Let's watch IDX Economic Outlook 2025.
00:55My colleagues, the automotive industry faces various challenges throughout 2024.
00:59This condition makes Gai Kindo have to revise the automotive sales target in the country.
01:04How optimistic is the automotive industry facing 2025 amid economic and geopolitical challenges?
01:11Here is the information.
01:132024 is a challenging year for the automotive industry in Indonesia due to global economic conditions and geopolitics.
01:30In fact, Gai Kindo has to revise the 2024 sales target of 1.1 million units
01:38to 850,000 units due to the market slump.
01:42Based on Gai Kindo's data, throughout 2024, the sales of national cars reached 865,723 units.
01:54This figure drops 13.9% annually compared to 2023, which reached 1.005 million units.
02:04While retail sales also dropped 10.9% annually from 998,059 units in 2023 to 889,680 units in 2024.
02:21Although the global economy is still shrouded in uncertainty,
02:24the automotive industry believes that car sales still have a chance to grow in 2025.
02:31Gai Kindo even targets national car sales to reach 900,000 units in 2025.
02:39In addition, the government provides a number of incentives to boost purchasing power,
02:43one of which is PPN-DTP for electric vehicles and PPN-BM incentives for hybrid vehicles.
02:50Thank you, Mr. Andri.
03:21I've seen the growth of the automotive industry in Indonesia in 2023.
03:28The growth is quite interesting, more than 1 million units.
03:33But then in 2024, it dropped to around 800,000 units.
03:38What are the findings from the industry in 2024?
03:44It turns out that there is a significant impact on car sales in 2024, right?
03:49Yes, that's right.
03:50So if we look at it, it's not enough for 2024.
03:54So the indication has started to appear since September 2023.
03:58At that time, the Fed raised its interest rate so that the dollar went back to the US.
04:05The impact is then the tightening of credit issuances in Indonesia, one of them.
04:1280% of people who buy a car in Indonesia use credit.
04:17Then with the tightening of credit, of course, the sales drop.
04:20In addition, there are also some policies that tend to make credit-giving agencies
04:29to tighten their requirements.
04:31Okay, that means it's more selective, right?
04:33More selective.
04:34That's the impact of the decrease in car sales in 2023.
04:40This condition continues until 2024.
04:43We are grateful that in early 2024 until August, it was still quite good.
04:48Suddenly in September, it tends to go down again.
04:52We don't know either.
04:53The problem seems to be a global economic problem, including geopolitical.
04:59At that time, we still maintained our projection of 1.1 million.
05:05However, until October, whether we want it or not, we have to correct it.
05:09As a result, our projection went down from 1.1 million to 850 million.
05:14Alhamdulillah, it reached 865 million.
05:17That also gives a little optimism to start in 2025.
05:21Okay, the decrease in purchasing power is also one thing that has been said
05:25to be quite dynamic in 2024.
05:30This is also a significant impact, right?
05:33Yes, it's clear and significant.
05:35Why?
05:36If I'm not mistaken, from the BPS data, there are middle-class groups
05:40with an amount of around 40 million or 50 million.
05:43There are 10 million people who are in the lower class.
05:45However, the general buyer of motor vehicles is the middle-class groups.
05:51As soon as they go down, the impact of motor vehicle buyers also goes down.
05:58Yes, we also don't forget at the end of 2024,
06:00there is a concern from the public related to the increase in BPS to 12%.
06:04It has then increased at the end of the year,
06:07so it makes the public rethink whether they will spend money in various sectors or not.
06:13One of them is in the automotive sector.
06:15And this is also data related to Mas Andri.
06:20Related to the decrease in purchasing power,
06:22this is of course not only felt by the automotive sector.
06:25It means that this is definitely felt by other sectors.
06:28This is quite a concern when we enter 2025.
06:33Maybe the concern is still the same.
06:35Related to the decrease in purchasing power.
06:37What do you think, Mas Andri?
06:38Yes, we see that in 2024, the decrease in purchasing power is very sharp.
06:45We see that the deflation has even been going on for five months.
06:49And there is actually a recovery effort.
06:54But the recovery is not as good as it was in 2023.
06:58Moreover, Mr. Gopu has also said that the decrease in the middle class is one of the crucial factors.
07:07We also see that in terms of financing factors,
07:11as mentioned earlier, related to the flower population.
07:14Indeed, Bank Indonesia has reduced the flower population from 25 basis points to 5.75.
07:20But if we look at it, it still cannot help the financing related to motor vehicle credit.
07:29Moreover, if we look at the projection until the end of 2025,
07:37it remains at 5.75.
07:41It means that there is no incentive for the motor vehicle credit financing scheme.
07:49And of course, if we look at the government policy,
07:53as mentioned earlier, there is a 12% PPN, plus an option.
07:58And there is still a minimum incentive provided, especially for the ICE group.
08:05In my opinion, this is also a note that when we enter 2025,
08:12what will the government want?
08:14Will there be a transition from ICE to electric vehicle?
08:22But of course, if we look at the overall context of Indonesia,
08:29with the infrastructure that is not yet evenly distributed,
08:33I think this is still in ICE.
08:36And we should see that there is a transition phase through hybrid.
08:42This is what has not yet been seen.
08:44Although the government has given incentives yesterday,
08:48but in my opinion, the incentive is still not enough.
08:52It means that it is still far below the battery-based BEV.
08:58And of course, the public will think twice.
09:03Which of the purchases is enough to benefit them?
09:08Especially in the middle of purchasing power, which we still don't know what the future will be like.
09:12And it should also be remembered that there will be high inflation projections in 2025.
09:19This will also make the public think twice about spending on motor vehicles.
09:25Okay, if we look at what was said in 2024,
09:29actually the most valuable lessons can be learned by the government
09:34in implementing various policies.
09:36Is it an incentive or a disincentive?
09:40What do you think, Sandry?
09:42Yes, if we look at it, the government seems to be very eager to give incentives
09:49to battery-based electric vehicles.
09:53But it should be remembered that even today,
09:56we see that the domestic industry in the country is still dependent on ICE.
10:03Still using the combustion engine.
10:06At best, if we look at it, the direction is to hybrid electric vehicles.
10:13In my opinion, the government should immediately jump in to battery-based electric vehicles.
10:20And in battery-based electric vehicles, there is also an incentive that I think is not entirely fair.
10:30Why is that?
10:32I see that factories that have been operating in Indonesia
10:37are not given a much greater incentive than factories that import their products from outside Indonesia.
10:45It means the same, they both get incentives.
10:49The amount is also diverse.
10:52Of course, in my opinion, this raises a question.
10:59Is it true that the government does not fully support the domestic industry?
11:06Because, of course, if we look at the growth of electric vehicles that are currently battery-based,
11:13it is very rapid.
11:15It should also be remembered that the government wants to push for the use of nickel.
11:22But the funny thing is that most of the current electric vehicles are not nickel-based.
11:31Okay, that's what needs to be evaluated.
11:34As for what Mas Andi said earlier, this is also a bit of a confusing question for industry friends.
11:41Because talking about the automotive industry, this is a long-term industry.
11:46So, this is a policy or a program that is quite locked, so it makes industry friends
11:53know what will be done in the future.
11:56We will discuss the next agenda.
11:59Stay with us, we will be right back.
12:16Thank you for staying with us.
12:19The Ministry of Industry has submitted a number of incentives to diversify the automotive industry in the country.
12:25One of them is the cancellation of the tax option for motor vehicles, as well as the return of motor vehicle license.
12:32And the following statement was made by the Minister of Industry, Setia Tiarta.
12:38The Ministry of Industry has submitted a number of incentives to diversify the automotive industry in the country.
12:44One of them is the cancellation of the tax option for motor vehicles, as well as the return of motor vehicle license.
12:51And the following statement was made by the Minister of Industry, Setia Tiarta.
13:08So, this position is based on maintaining the growth of the automotive sector.
13:14And hopefully, this will be able to provide support and benefits for the national automotive sector
13:23and the national automotive sector, whether domestically or internationally.
13:32Yes, the existence of PPN as 12%, then the tax option is also a concern for automotive industry friends.
13:39They then see that in 2025, most likely the challenge is like that.
13:45Earlier, it was stated by Mr. Kukuh, is this based on the input of industry friends?
13:50Yes, frankly about this option, long before it was implemented, we communicated with the government, both the central and regional, especially the regions.
14:00And we conveyed the impact if the option is still implemented.
14:05Well, one of the provinces that is already mature and fully understands is East Java.
14:12Therefore, before there was a call from the Ministry of Domestic Affairs No. 900 to impose incentives or stimulus on this option,
14:25East Java has decided to postpone or give stimulus so that the tax paid for PPNKP and PKP in East Java does not experience an increase like in 2024.
14:43So, it's still for 2025.
14:45And they will evaluate it for six months.
14:50And it seems that after there is a call from the Ministry of Domestic Affairs, some provinces also follow the same pattern.
14:58Some are three months, some vary between one province and another.
15:02Yes, it means that this will be another optimism, right?
15:05Correct.
15:06To make a projection in 2025 related to the sale of the car itself.
15:11Okay, earlier we had a little discussion with Mr. Andri Terstate that the focus of the government is more or less where to go, right?
15:20Will it prioritize the transition to electric vehicles, then also increase the productivity of friends in the electric battery industry,
15:29or then prioritize hybrids so as to provide incentives for hybrid vehicles?
15:36How far is the explanation related to the priorities of the government?
15:41This also reflects the projections of friends in the industry, Mr. Kukuh.
15:46Yes, actually we are in the Ministry of Industry.
15:53Actually, there is already a multi-pathway.
15:56So, in 2060, we have an agreement to go to net zero emission.
16:01It can be achieved with various alternatives.
16:05Starting in 2013, the government has released the LCGC program, Low Cost Green Car,
16:12which is a vehicle with affordable price, low fuel consumption, and low emissions.
16:17That was in 2013, and it is still running until now, and is able to take up to 20% of the market share.
16:26This will continue with the next program, LCEV, because the emissions of LCGC have started to increase.
16:33So, a few years ago, it was set at 3% BPN-BM, before it was zero.
16:38These days, it has to be consistently followed.
16:42This LCEV also covers hybrids, then there are plug-in hybrids,
16:48until it finally goes to electric vehicles.
16:51Besides that, we also have flexi-engines,
16:54which are vehicles that are able to consume the latest fuel,
17:00which is a mixture of diesel, diesel fuel, and CBO.
17:06Then, for gasoline, the majority uses gasoline,
17:09it can also use ethanol.
17:11Only 5%, but biodiesel is already 35%, even 40% this year.
17:16Okay, so there are many ways to go to net zero emission,
17:20not just electric vehicles.
17:23Because there are also many challenges related to electric vehicles,
17:27such as infrastructure,
17:29then also the concern of the community to buy electric vehicles,
17:33related to the battery, and so on.
17:36So there is a high level of anxiety in the community.
17:39So when they buy now, most of them are not first-time buyers.
17:43So they already have other options.
17:46Then, the price becomes the main issue.
17:50The price is relatively expensive, even though now there is a cheap one.
17:53Then there is a question that always arises,
17:56what is the resale value?
17:58Then, if I go out of town, where will I charge it?
18:02How long will I charge it, and so on.
18:05Therefore, in this condition,
18:08hybrids are one of the alternatives.
18:10Because hybrids do not require infrastructure,
18:14while electric vehicles require charging station infrastructure.
18:18There are many types of charging stations.
18:20There are many cars whose systems are different from each other.
18:23This becomes an issue of its own.
18:25Not to mention, after five years,
18:27the resale value has become a question.
18:30Then, the price of the battery is also relatively expensive,
18:33half the price of the car.
18:35That becomes the anxiety of the community.
18:38So this is the condition that needs to be considered.
18:42So it's okay if we use electric vehicles,
18:45as Mr. Andrew mentioned earlier,
18:47the alternative is that the technology develops rapidly.
18:50In the past, we relied on nickel.
18:52Now there is ferro and so on.
18:54So, leave it to the technology.
18:56We maintain it,
18:58so that our industry can all run together.
19:02Because the investment is also quite large and long.
19:06Okay.
19:07The end is how the community wants to buy or not.
19:10Because it is related to various things
19:13that became a concern in 2024,
19:15there is a kind of concern
19:18related to the middle class community
19:20holding back from spending their money on one thing or another.
19:24If the trend of electric cars,
19:27at least what is read in the domestic market,
19:31if I'm not mistaken,
19:33the growth is quite interesting.
19:35Yes.
19:36How far is this trend in Indonesia,
19:40regarding the purchase of electric vehicles,
19:42or maybe various incentives in the automotive industry,
19:46is it inciting the middle class community to spend again?
19:50Yes.
19:51What do you think?
19:53Or the findings they actually want are A, B, C.
19:56What are your findings?
19:58Yes, actually,
19:59the first and foremost is the price.
20:03Yes.
20:04So, the price of electric cars
20:09for the middle class
20:11is quite promising.
20:14I can say that.
20:16Because they can save, for example,
20:19for their utility bills.
20:21This is especially for the Jabodetabek area,
20:23as I mentioned earlier.
20:25Then there is a subsidy provided by the government.
20:28If we compare it with other types,
20:31I think this is a very large portion
20:34for the government subsidy.
20:37So, the middle class sees that
20:39instead of buying the ICE,
20:42the conventional one,
20:44it's better to try to use this.
20:46Moreover, the policies in Jabodetabek
20:50are quite discriminative.
20:52It means that there is a tight budget.
20:56Then, the charging stations are already in malls and buildings.
21:01In my opinion,
21:03actually, we go back again,
21:05but in the context of Indonesia as a whole,
21:08even though it is said that
21:10the growth of electric cars is high,
21:13but for the amount,
21:16it is still dominated by the hybrid.
21:19If we compare it with the conventional one.
21:22What does this mean?
21:24It means that the people still see
21:27a tendency towards conventional and hybrid.
21:31How do we try to bridge
21:34the government's policy towards the transition process?
21:39In my opinion, this hasn't been seen enough.
21:42And if I can say,
21:44what Mr. Kuku said earlier,
21:46that it turns out that it's not only nickel
21:48for the hybrid.
21:50It turns out that there is also from oil.
21:52This is the focus of the government's commodity
21:54that wants to be pushed.
21:56In my opinion,
21:58the government should not forget
22:00how to hybridize oil,
22:02how to hybridize nickel,
22:04but the off-taker market is not supported.
22:08In my opinion,
22:10we shouldn't push factories
22:13that may not be in Indonesia,
22:16but outside Indonesia,
22:18to come and sell here
22:20while the domestic industry is not paid attention.
22:23And then they come here, CBU,
22:25and there is an incentive.
22:27Okay, how do automotive industry friends
22:29see 2025?
22:31Will it be heavy? Will it be light?
22:33Will it be medium?
22:35What needs to be done
22:37so that the performance of the automotive industry
22:39in 2025 will be faster?
22:41What is it called?
22:43The movement.
22:45We will continue in the next segment.
22:47Stay with us, we'll be right back.
22:57Indepth Talks
22:59Indepth Talks
23:01Indepth Talks
23:03Indepth Talks
23:05Indepth Talks
23:07Indepth Talks
23:09I'm still talking with Mr. Kukuh
23:11from Gai Kendo and also Mr. Andri
23:13from Indepth.
23:15Mr. Kukuh, 2025 looks very heavy,
23:17ordinary, will it be light?
23:19Optimistic or what, sir?
23:21One, we have to be optimistic.
23:23Because this industry up and down
23:25has been normal
23:27since the 70s.
23:29We have had economic crisis and so on.
23:31Finally, it can grow.
23:33What needs to be noted is
23:35when we entered
23:37the one million club,
23:39Indonesia was finally able
23:41to become one of the countries that produce cars.
23:43One million a year
23:45when the economy grew by 6%.
23:47More than 6%.
23:49We hope this economy
23:51is at 5%, right?
23:53It's fortunate that 8% will be
23:55a leap on its own.
23:57And the potential is amazing.
23:59We are the largest market in ASEAN.
24:0131% of car sales in ASEAN
24:03are in Indonesia.
24:05The car ownership ratio in Indonesia
24:07is still relatively low.
24:0999 cars per 1,000 residents.
24:11Our population is 280 million.
24:13Compared to Malaysia
24:15whose population is 32 million,
24:17the car ownership ratio is already 490.
24:19Meanwhile,
24:21Thailand has
24:23275 cars per 1,000 residents.
24:25We are still at 99.
24:27We should be able to grow
24:29with the economy.
24:31The incentive is good
24:33for the short term.
24:35But we need a grand design.
24:37What direction should we go?
24:39What is needed
24:41so that the automotive industry
24:43in Indonesia can
24:45easily develop its industry?
24:47Because one car has tens of thousands of components.
24:49It's not just the factory,
24:51but also the components
24:53are also rising.
24:55If this can rise, it's amazing.
24:57We are like a car bridge.
24:59I wanted to
25:01accelerate
25:03the adoption of electric vehicles.
25:05We import CPU. Okay, it's okay.
25:07But the point is, they will also make
25:09components from Indonesia in Indonesia.
25:11That's what we hope for.
25:13The supply is more or less complete
25:15to feel optimistic in 2025.
25:17Optimism
25:19can be accommodated
25:21with various strategies.
25:23I'm sure the automotive industry
25:25has many strategies
25:27to reach the 2025 target.
25:29Andri, what should we
25:31prioritize?
25:33Maybe the government should prioritize.
25:35So that the descendants can form incentives
25:37or things that make the automotive industry
25:39flourish. And the most important thing
25:41is the market.
25:43Whether the market can absorb
25:45or not.
25:47What do you think?
25:49First, securing the market.
25:51We have to
25:53secure the market first.
25:55Because this is a big market.
25:57It's not only enjoyed by the domestic industry,
25:59but also the industry outside Indonesia.
26:01So what is the direction of the government?
26:03Do they want to
26:05encourage
26:07the growth of the domestic industry?
26:09Or
26:11do they want to give a red carpet
26:13to the industry outside Indonesia?
26:15That's one.
26:17If the government
26:19wants to increase the domestic industry,
26:21there are many benefits
26:23that can be obtained.
26:25The job market, and
26:27the purchasing power of the society will also increase.
26:29This is what should be
26:31encouraged.
26:33Incentive giving,
26:35I agree that it's a short term.
26:37But I think
26:39the incentives should be
26:41based on the government's
26:43interests.
26:45How to
26:47encourage
26:49the government's agendas.
26:51And we see that
26:53until now, the incentives
26:55given, whether it's
26:57the domestic production or
26:59imported from outside,
27:01it's all the same.
27:03I think this should be differentiated.
27:05Likewise, if we look at
27:07the incentives for
27:09the type of car,
27:11we know that
27:13it's not only used for
27:15private vehicles,
27:17but also for
27:19online services.
27:21We know that.
27:23It should also be given
27:25different incentives.
27:27So, we can't
27:29give the same incentives
27:31to everyone.
27:33There should be a difference, and it depends on
27:35the government's goals.
27:37What is the
27:39target for 2025?
27:41What is the strategy?
27:43One thing is clear,
27:45we will campaign,
27:47we will still hold exhibitions
27:49to introduce new products,
27:51a lot of them.
27:53And as usual, we will make gadgets.
27:55And this year, we will add more.
27:57We will hold an exhibition in Makassar.
27:59Not only once a year,
28:01but also in the big cities
28:03in Indonesia.
28:05We will hold an exhibition in Jakarta
28:07in July and August,
28:09followed by Surabaya,
28:11Semarang, and Bandung.
28:13And finally,
28:15we will hold an exhibition in Makassar
28:17to represent the East Indonesia.
28:19As Mr. Kuku said,
28:21there is no reason for us
28:23not to be optimistic.
28:25Because no matter what,
28:27automotive is a capital-intensive
28:29and labor-intensive industry.
28:31When we grow,
28:33it will have an impact on
28:35the people's purchasing power,
28:37who work in the automotive industry.
28:39And our export has reached half a million.
28:41Export is also important
28:43and a contributor to the country's income.
28:45That's what Mr. Kuku said.
28:47And also, Mr. Andi, thank you
28:49for joining us.
28:51Hopefully, various targets
28:53in the automotive industry can be achieved
28:55and the economic growth
28:57will be even bigger in 2025.
28:59Thank you, Mr. Kuku.
29:01That concludes our discussion
29:03on IDX Economic Outlook 2025.
29:05I am Wiky Adrian.
29:07Thank you. See you next time.
29:31Thank you. See you next time.
29:33Thank you. See you next time.