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00:00Well the US no longer signed up to that Paris climate agreement, Trump ordering
00:04its withdrawal and saying he would end aid to the country's worst hit by
00:08climate change. A denier of global warming, Trump has promised to drill baby
00:13drill. So what will his next four years in the White House mean for the world's
00:17environmental future? Well let's speak now to a strategist for European climate
00:21action, Mr Neil Makarov. Mr Makarov, thanks for your time. The United States
00:26then once again withdrawing from that Paris climate agreement. I mean it's
00:31happened before, is it that big a deal? Well his story tells us that the climate
00:38regime is relatively resilient and solid, especially when the US disengaged. Indeed
00:44in 2001 when Bush decided to withdraw the US from the Kyoto Protocol,
00:50countries continued and the same happened in 2016 when Trump withdrew
00:56from the Paris agreement the first time. So the net zero transition is actually
01:01happening in many countries in the world and this is set to continue because it's
01:05not only about reducing greenhouse gas emissions. For many countries in the
01:09world it's about reducing dependency on oil and gas imports and making the
01:16economy more energy secure. So despite what the White House is doing now, many
01:22countries are going to continue the net zero transition globally. But the US is
01:27the world's largest polluter, is it not? And you know if they're going to drill
01:31baby drill, you know what do you see happening potentially in the next four
01:35years? I mean there's talk of going for oil in the Arctic but I believe that
01:38would be a very expensive play. So what do you think might actually play out
01:42beyond these words? No definitely I mean the Trump administration is doing what
01:48they promised during the first day in office, withdrawing from the Paris
01:53agreement but also unlocking a license for oil and gas project and new
01:57infrastructures. And this could emit more than four billion tons of CO2,
02:02additional CO2 in the atmosphere, which is the equivalent of Japan and the EU's
02:08emission combined. So it's a huge amount of climate impact that might be
02:12exacerbated by the Trump administration's policies. At the same
02:17time when we have wildfires in South California still out of control and
02:21major hurricanes affecting the US, especially in North Carolina. So we see
02:28that there is clearly a discrepancy between the climate consequences on one
02:33hand and the Trump policy on the other end. But clearly other countries are
02:39engaged in that transition and probably they won't roll back and follow the US
02:44leadership in that regard because it's not only a matter of greenhouse gas
02:48emissions reductions, it's now a matter of technological leadership, it's a
02:52matter of innovation and also energy security for many parts of the world,
02:56especially in China and the EU. So those countries might take advantage of the US
03:02withdrawing from the Paris Agreement to even take more leadership at the global
03:07stage.
03:08We have seen advances made in China over the past number of years, and notably
03:12when it comes to renewable energy. I mean, it all ultimately comes down to
03:16what's going to be economically more beneficial to governments. The US is
03:20going to focus, it looks like, on oil and that industry. But take us through
03:25within four years, could we see economically things start to change?
03:31Yeah, to be honest, the obsession of Donald Trump for fossil fuels is rather
03:35short-sighted, as he's turning back America from the new industrial era,
03:41which is emerging. The Biden administration tried to catch up with
03:45those net zero technologies, which is clearly the leading technologies in
03:49terms of growth and in terms of jobs. 400,000 jobs have been created, American
03:57green jobs, especially in red states, in Republican states, regarding solar
04:04manufacturing or wind turbine manufacturing, also electric vehicles
04:08manufacturing and deployment. And those jobs are clearly at risk with the
04:13reverse of the Biden administration policies. So that might cost a lot to
04:19the American economy at the end. And also all the new oil and gas production
04:25that will be out of the Trump policies might not find clients in the
04:32meantime, as other countries in the world are also decreasing gas and oil
04:36demand. This is the case for China, but this is also the case for the European
04:40Union, as Europeans are now effectively reducing their demand for gas.
04:46But if the world's largest polluter, the United States, gets even more
04:51polluting, I mean, we share the world climate. So ultimately, we're all
04:55impacted. I mean, how much damage could the next four years do to all of us?
05:00We're already gone beyond what we've been told was the point of no return.
05:06No, absolutely. The American emissions are clearly, the US is the second most
05:12biggest emitter in the world after China. And clearly, with the Trump
05:16administration, this might become even worse with 4 billion tons of CO2 of
05:21additional emission that could be released in the atmosphere, the
05:25equivalent of Japan and the EU emissions annually. So it's a massive
05:29impact for climate change. And it might exacerbate the climate crisis in all the
05:35world, but also domestically at the US level. So at the end, Americans might be
05:42the first impacted because more than 80% of the US territory have been impacted
05:46by climate disasters or events in the last four years. And this might get
05:52worse in the coming years. So yes, of course, as Europeans, but also other
05:57parts of the world, we will be impacted by those Trump administration
06:01decisions. But clearly, American people will be the first to be impacted
06:06probably.
06:07But you do sound hopeful that the rest of the world won't follow that more
06:11short sighted view of energy and that we're turning towards a greener
06:15solution. But how much are we living up to the agreements made here in Europe,
06:19for example, how much are we living up to the agreements made under that Paris
06:23accord?
06:25No, I mean, today, Europeans have two options, either they decide to follow
06:30Trump and to do some concessions importing more liquefied natural gas
06:34from the US. But then it means that they are also subject to very volatile
06:39energy prices on international markets, they will be more exposed also to the
06:43domestic politics of the United States, or they decide to continue the net zero
06:48transition, which is a second option. And then by deploying renewables,
06:53electrifying the economy, they might get more energy secure, and basically less
06:59exposed to the US internal politics. So that's probably a smarter choice for
07:06many decision makers to continue the net zero transition, whatever the
07:11political color you have, it's not in your interest to be strongly linked in
07:16your energy with the US gas and oil sectors at the moment, given the
07:23internal American politics.
07:26Indeed, and it's often the space flights and the wars that are so damaging to our
07:29environment. But when we speak about climate change, it's often a doom and
07:33gloom scenario. Before we leave, you know, humanity still has time to turn
07:38this around, does it not? Do you think we are starting, apart from maybe one or
07:42two world leaders, overall, do you think people are starting to really
07:45acknowledge the problem and turn rapidly enough in the right direction?
07:50Yeah, it seems with the impact, most of the people are now very aware of the
07:54climate crisis. Many people also, their jobs depends on new industries, net zero
08:02industries, especially in the US. I mean, 80% of the green jobs are actually
08:07located in Republican states, and they are the first that are going to suffer
08:11from the Trump administration policies. So clearly, I think very soon, the
08:16Americans will wake up and realize that maybe turning back the clock on the net
08:22zero transition leadership might be a very bad choice for the United States.
08:29Okay, well, Neil Makarov, all we can do for now is wait and see. But for now,
08:33thanks very much indeed for your time.
08:35Thank you very much.