IHSG +0,89% ke 7.142,296 di sesi 1 Kamis (16/1). IDX Sektor Keuangan +0,96% BMRI +3,91%, BBRI +2,93%, BBNI +2,04% dan BBCA +0,26%. IDX Sektor Energi +0,95% INDY +5,27%, IDX Sektor Infrastruktur +0,64% BREN +6,06%, Sementara IDX Sektor Barang Konsumen Non-Primer -1,05% AMRT -2,11%.
Dari global, saham saham Wall Street melonjak di Rabu waktu setempat, didorong laba bank yang kuat dan data inflasi AS yang lebih lemah dari perkiraan.
Dari global, saham saham Wall Street melonjak di Rabu waktu setempat, didorong laba bank yang kuat dan data inflasi AS yang lebih lemah dari perkiraan.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for staying with us and in this segment, we will review how the trade is going
00:11throughout the day, the Samkabunga family is still continuing to strengthen, it seems quite
00:16prone to profit taking because it happened to move in the red zone and in 30 minutes, the
00:20closing trend today, the strengthening is more towards the limit.
00:24And we remind you again, you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive at 0812
00:288788.723, as shown on your television screen later.
00:34And today we are connected via Zoom with Mr. Yosep Gabetua, the founder of Nomora Fund.
00:40We will immediately greet him. Good afternoon, Mr. Yosep. How are you, sir?
00:44Good afternoon, Mr. David. How are you?
00:47Thank you, Mr. Yosep, for taking the time on IDX Channel.
00:50Mr. Yosep, the euphoria from the closure of the Samkabunga Ajuan by Bank Indonesia,
00:55which was decided on the previous trading day, seems to continue today, sir.
01:01But for the Samkabunga family, the strengthening is more towards the limit here.
01:06It even happened to move in the red zone for a while, even though the strengthening
01:11trend was resumed. Your analysis?
01:14Okay, if we look at the last 1-2 days, starting from yesterday, we do see a momentum
01:21shift from the ISG. And if we look at it sectorally, it is more specific.
01:27This is a lot of support for the ISG, which has determined the direction of the ISG since yesterday.
01:32It is the banking sector, especially the big caps.
01:35We see that the BRI is increasing tremendously, the independent bank is increasing tremendously.
01:39So, indeed, the ISG is calculated based on the weight that is moved, based on the big cap stocks.
01:48If we look at the big cap stocks, they are moving up.
01:53It is not surprising that the ISG is also moving up.
01:57And if we look at the price movement, it is supported by the inflow from foreign investors.
02:05Maybe if we look at the last 2 days, the BRI that is sold daily by foreign investors
02:16has become the top inflow, the most borrowed stock by foreign investors.
02:22So, I see there is an indication of direction reversal, but we don't have to rush.
02:26I think it's better to look for a better option than the stocks that are borrowed a lot.
02:32Mr. Yosef, there are also many questions about the significant strengthening of these 2 days.
02:37You said that it has been pushed by foreign inflows, especially to the big cap banks, namely the BRI.
02:42The question is, will this condition only last for a while or will it continue?
02:47On the other hand, the market players are still waiting for the FED's appointment this month.
02:53Donald Trump will soon be in office and will also hold an appointment this month, Mr. Yosef.
02:59If it is said whether this will last for a while or not, for us who are in the market,
03:05for us as stock investors, of course we hope that this trend will last quite a long time.
03:11Moreover, we have seen an incredible decline in the banking sector in the past few months.
03:18Of course, we hope that the IASG will do a good job.
03:21But, as I said earlier, it's better to be adaptive than to guess.
03:30So, for example, the banking sector has seen that some have started to inflow.
03:34But, among these inflows, it's better to choose selectively which one seems to have a smaller risk.
03:41If we look at the beginning of this week, the only bank that is still listed as a net buy investor is Bandiri,
03:51compared to other banking sectors.
03:54So, if we are asked to choose between the four big caps in Indonesia,
04:00BSA, Bandiri, BRI, and BNI banks, I prefer to choose Bandiri.
04:05I prefer to look at the inflows of foreign investors that are already quite large, and I think the risk is smaller.
04:13Before we review from a technical point of view, for the performance of the four big cap banks,
04:18for the last update, I want to evaluate the exchange rate for the dollar first.
04:23Mr. Yosep, today, the intraday has passed 16,400.
04:30This condition occurs when the Bank of Indonesia deducts 25 basis points.
04:36How do you relate to this condition? Will it burden the index?
04:41If it will burden the index, actually, the simple thing that makes the index move is the transaction done in the stock market.
04:51If, for example, panic or optimism is not converted into a transaction in the stock market,
04:58in my opinion, our concerns or optimism will be nothing.
05:04So, in my opinion, the last indicator is the transaction of the investors in the stock market.
05:16If, for example, foreign investors are not buying, in my opinion, the tone is optimistic.
05:23But if, for example, there is a net sale, we see that there is a concern.
05:29In my opinion, it's like that, Mr. David.
05:31Okay, let's go straight to the technical.
05:33The movement of several big cap banks today, Mr. Yosep, in 30 minutes, the index of Samkabungan,
05:39the strength is more limited, and this is also reflected in the movement of the technical of the big cap banks
05:45whose strength is also starting to be limited.
05:48BMRI, sir, today was stronger than 4%.
05:52Meanwhile, Jelang Penutupan in the last few minutes only strengthened at 2.17%.
05:57Even Intraday was able to pass above level 6200.
06:03Yes, for BMRI, as I said earlier, in my opinion, the better option of the four big caps is the independent bank.
06:13First, like this, from the inflow, it was mentioned earlier.
06:16The second, in my opinion, one interesting point,
06:22maybe some investors haven't noticed that
06:26among these four big caps, the stock is the least owned by retail investors.
06:33This stock is still owned by fund managers and many are owned by foreign investors.
06:38That's the independent bank, which has the least retail investors.
06:42That's why, in my opinion, the interest of foreign investors is greater to the independent bank for the current position.
06:48So, in my opinion, for the position of the independent bank, that's a better option.
06:54This is part of my choice.
06:56Later, when it comes to the target, it will be discussed in the next session, maybe.
07:02Okay, that's part of your choice, sir, in 5875.
07:06Can we move to BBRI, Mr. Yosep?
07:10Analysis and recommendations?
07:13For BBRI, if until today, there is still an inflow from foreign investors,
07:21in my opinion, there is momentum.
07:24We see there is momentum, but we see from the weaknesses that are happening now.
07:29This morning, there was a gap up, but now it has started to indicate,
07:36it indicates that there is a profit taking from the increase that happened in the last two days.
07:44Support and resistance, and also recommendations for BBRI?
07:48For support and resistance, in my opinion, for BRI at Rp4,000,
07:56it can be a psychological level, it can also be a support for investors who want to buy.
08:03For me personally, let's see first, if it is still recorded as an inflow,
08:08in my opinion, buying and selling for this BRI bank can be done.
08:15But if it is still an outflow, in my opinion, look for a better option than the four mentioned earlier.
08:23Okay, the resistance today was 4,240, your last resistance for BBRI in the short and medium term.
08:32For BRI bank, at Rp4,300, I think it is the closest resistance to be tested, to be achieved.
08:43Okay, from BBRI we move to BBCA, sir.
08:46BBCA is also quite interesting, in the last few trading days,
08:51the movement is very different from other big cap banks.
08:54Today, BBCA actually weakened itself, especially at the closing of the second session at 0.51% at Rp9,750.
09:01Earlier, it was significant in the first session,
09:04up to supporting the ISG to the highest intraday record today at Rp9,925.
09:10How do you see the reversal that happened for BBCA intraday today?
09:16For BBCA, actually from the end of last year,
09:20we have seen that BBCA has the lowest volatility,
09:25so the risk is not as high as other banks.
09:32And foreign investors actually have relatively small outflow and inflow.
09:37So actually, I think the focus of foreign investor trading is not to BBCA,
09:42they are actually more wait-and-see, they are more stagnant in BBCA.
09:49So for BBCA, in my opinion, it is not too affected by the existing sentiment.
09:55If you look at the price, it is quite cheap, and the current position,
10:00the outflow is getting smaller.
10:03In my opinion, the buy-sell for BBCA can already be done,
10:07with support at Rp9,500,
10:11and the target Rp10,100 is very likely to be achieved for BBCA.
10:21Today's closing at Rp9,750, down 0.51%.
10:25The level of support can be observed at Rp9,500.
10:29Analysis and recommendations from Samsung, Kampi Cap Bank,
10:32and again, the investment decision is still in the hands of the shareholder of IDX Channel.
10:36Let's move on to the other sector, Mr.
10:38Infrastructure for brand shares.
10:40Previously, it did not give much support to the joint stock market.
10:44Today, it seems that it also became a supporter.
10:48Intraday was able to strengthen at more than 6%,
10:50when ISG was able to strengthen at more than 1%.
10:53However, in today's closing, it seems that the strengthening is more limited.
11:00But the jump for the brand is quite significant,
11:03from Rp8,800 to Rp9,700.
11:10Mr. Yosef, what is your analysis for the brand?
11:15For the brand, in my opinion, the direction is still quite maintained.
11:19Global investors' interest in this stock is still relatively high.
11:24We can see from the beginning of December,
11:27from the start of the brand share,
11:29the breakout from the consolidation,
11:33maybe for 2-3 months, it continued to consolidate,
11:37and finally broke out at the beginning of December.
11:39We can see that the inflow from foreign investors is big in the brand share.
11:44And if we look at,
11:47since the beginning,
11:50for renewable energy,
11:55the competitor is Adaro,
11:59whereas Adaro's PUPS failed to absorb 100%.
12:04So, it is still a company with one of the supporting sectors, which is coal.
12:12So, it seems that the brand is still the only option for renewable energy.
12:16In my opinion, the trend will continue to be good
12:20as long as the competitor or as long as the sector that plays on the same land has not appeared.
12:27That's it for the brand.
12:30Analysis and recommendations from the brand,
12:32Pemirsa, which today joined as a supporter of Indekarga Semkabungan.
12:36Mr. Yosef, we will be back later,
12:38we will see what Samsung has chosen to recommend,
12:41and Pemirsa, we will be back in a moment.
12:46Pemirsa