IHSG +0,62% ke 6.999,469 di sesi 1 hari Rabu (15/1). IDX Sektor Teknologi +1,34% BUKA +7,65%. IDX Sektor Keuangan +1,19% Dipimpin saham BBRI bangkit +2,89% di hari pencairan dividen interim jumbo tahun buku 2024. IDX Sektor Transportasi dan Logistik +1,07% BIRD +4,95%. Sementara IDX Sektor Perindustrian -0,8%. Diikuti, IDX Sektor Barang Baku - 0,41% BRPT -2,06%.
Dari global, Saham AS naik pada hari Selasa setelah indeks harga produsen (PPI), salah satu dari dua laporan inflasi utama minggu ini, menunjukkan hasil yang lebih rendah dari perkiraan.
Dari global, Saham AS naik pada hari Selasa setelah indeks harga produsen (PPI), salah satu dari dua laporan inflasi utama minggu ini, menunjukkan hasil yang lebih rendah dari perkiraan.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us. In this segment, we will review how Indekar Gas Amkabungan's journey today can significantly strengthen the significant direction reversal from the lowest level in the last few months.
00:18And we remind you again, you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive at 0812.8788.723, as shown on your television screen later.
00:28And right now, we are connected via Zoom with Mr. Nikolas Darmawan, Research Analyst at Semesta Interface Sekuritas, or MG.
00:36We will just say hello. Mr. Nikolas, good afternoon. How are you, sir?
00:41Good afternoon, Mr. David. How are you? Thank you.
00:44Yes, thank you too. Mr. Nikolas has spent his time on IDH Channel.
00:47Today, good news also comes from Indekar Gas Amkabungan, Mr. Nikolas. We will review from the technical side first.
00:54Yesterday, Indekar Gas Amkabungan's intraday coverage reached its lowest level in less than 7 months.
01:02Today, Indekar Gas Amkabungan experienced a significant direction reversal.
01:05Indekar Gas Amkabungan's intraday coverage reached its lowest level in less than 7 months.
01:15Indekar Gas Amkabungan's intraday coverage reached its lowest level in less than 7 months.
01:17If we look at the rebound today, it is quite unexpected,
01:21because the BIS' connection gap is as big as 25 basis points.
01:26If we look at the weakness of the ISE, it has been continuing since last year.
01:31From the year-to-date itself, the foreign outflow still recorded around 3 trillion for the regular market.
01:38This is due to the minimal growth catalyst in Indonesia compared to other regional markets.
01:44We also assume that the purchasing power of this community is still weak and under pressure.
01:49So, we see that the rebound this afternoon was largely triggered by the BIS' connection gap.
01:58So, if we look at the characteristics, it is likely that the rebound will be short-term.
02:06Okay, where should Indekar Gas Amkabungan go next, sir?
02:10On the other hand, later tonight, investors are still waiting for the release of US inflation data,
02:16especially to determine the direction of the Fed policy in January.
02:20Although from the probability side, the possibility of the Fed is still maintained.
02:27Yes, if we look at it from a technical point of view, we see that the rebound was triggered by the BIS.
02:36So, maybe for the target price in the ISG,
02:39remember that later tonight there will be a release of CPI data which is quite sensitive to the future of the Fed
02:46to determine the flow rate, which most likely, the Fed has said, will rebound only twice this year.
02:53And for the ISG itself, our target price for now is still sideways with a price rebound at the high of 7,200.
03:01Maybe that's the highest target price for the ISG in the coming months.
03:06Then for the flow, we expect it to increase above the level of 6,930.
03:12So, maybe for this range, we expect the ISG to tend to move sideways, tend to still rebound.
03:19Okay, let's go back to the decision of Suku Bunga Acuan Bank Indonesia,
03:23which today held a press conference for the meeting in January, Mr. Nikolas.
03:28Is the rebound carried out by the Bank Indonesia in accordance with the estimates or not?
03:38Because many say that the Bank Indonesia will maintain the Suku Bunga Acuan at 6%
03:42considering that the position of the exchange rate is still maintained at 16,200-16,300 up to today's trading.
03:51Yes, if we look at the rebound of Suku Bunga, it is indeed unexpected as we explained earlier.
03:56So, we, as analysts, also estimate that the Suku Bunga will be maintained.
04:03Because if we look at it, the exchange rate has already weakened above the level of 16,200.
04:11So, if we look at the BNI agenda from last year,
04:15it is more important to the exchange rate or the spread attractiveness than growth.
04:25So, if we look at it now, the BNI agenda is shifting more towards balancing domestic growth
04:32and the ideal spread attractiveness, which is quite far.
04:36So, if we look at it, there is enough money from the BNI agenda itself.
04:40So, maybe what we see now is like that.
04:44Okay, from the sentiment side, let's go straight to the sectoral banking.
04:48PICAP again today became the main supporter for the Indekarga Semkabungan.
04:53Let's go straight to the BBRI, sir.
04:55Compared to the other four PICAP banks, the BBRI is the one that is under the deepest pressure.
05:01Today, the BBRI is back to the level of 3,800 and is back above 4,000, strengthening at 7.83%.
05:10What is your analysis and recommendation for the BBRI?
05:13Okay, for the BBRI, we see that it is mostly from nothing,
05:16because indeed, as Mr. David mentioned earlier, the biggest distribution
05:19today is the main trigger is still from the BBI.
05:23So, maybe the recommendation for now is to shorten the buy.
05:27As long as the price is maintained above 4,000,
05:30maybe we can consider buying on weakness at the price of 4,950.
05:38Maybe the invalidation level is below 4,000.
05:42If the price fails to maintain that level,
05:44maybe we can cut it first because in terms of trend,
05:46we see that this trend is still bearish.
05:49And if we know it ourselves,
05:51the BBI is a short-term catalyst.
05:54If we look at it, it's only as big as 25 basis points, like that.
05:57Okay, today, the interim dividend flow,
06:00then while waiting for the fourth quarter and full year in 2024,
06:06where will it go, sir?
06:08If we look at it relatively, maybe it will be sideways too,
06:12which follows the movement of the index price,
06:14as we have estimated earlier.
06:16Because the driver of the index is already in the market.
06:19And if we look at it from the outflow side,
06:22we see that the ASIC is still outflow.
06:24So, most likely, this short-term catalyst,
06:27we expect it can raise the price to the nearest resistance level,
06:31which is at the level of 4,200.
06:34So, despite the dividend liquidation catalyst,
06:38we see that the positive catalyst for the BBI is still relatively minimal, like that.
06:43Okay, to minimize the profits that have occurred,
06:47especially for those who have taken the D69 position,
06:49is there any stock loss advice for the BBI?
06:53Remembering that the BBI is a big and historically,
06:57if we look at it, it has a dividend yield that is still quite attractive
07:01compared to other asset classes.
07:04And historically, we know that at the end of the day,
07:07the economy will be bullish.
07:08So, maybe we can consider to average down again
07:12if the price hits a big level,
07:16like maybe we mentioned a few big supports,
07:19it's at the level of 3,860, which has been hit.
07:23And next, maybe the worst-case scenario,
07:25if it can go down again, it's at 3,990,
07:28we can consider to average buy.
07:30Maybe like that, Mr. David.
07:31Okay, Mr. Nicholas, what's interesting is
07:33that Samsung has a significant increase in big cap,
07:35which is Samsung has a big cap of BUMN.
07:38BUMN is stronger at 6.48%,
07:40BNI is stronger in its position,
07:42I will try to check it first for BNI,
07:45if I'm not mistaken, it's also stronger than 6%, Mr. Nicholas.
07:47Now, the BBCA stock is stronger today,
07:49but its strength is more limited,
07:51and the percentage of its strength is only 2%.
07:54Standard analysis for BBCA.
07:56Coincidentally, there is also an input question, sir,
07:58in our interactive WhatsApp,
07:59there is Raisha from Jakarta.
08:01Thank you for joining us.
08:02The BBCA is seen to be rising today,
08:05can it reach the level of 1,200?
08:08No.
08:09Standard analysis for BBCA,
08:10whose strength is limited today
08:12when Samsung's BUMN big cap increase is quite fast.
08:17Okay, for BBCA,
08:18it's a case of its own,
08:20because it's a private bank,
08:22compared to other banks.
08:24Then, the increase we see is quite limited.
08:27In my opinion, this is quite unfair,
08:29because indeed, from its own decline,
08:32from the recent decline,
08:34BBCA is one of the most limited to decline.
08:37Therefore, we see that the increase is relatively,
08:41the most distributed is the largest,
08:44for example, BBYI.
08:45So, indeed, if we look at BBCA,
08:47maybe for now it's quite limited,
08:49the target price is quite conservative,
08:51maybe now it's at the level of Rp10,000,
08:54considering that it is psychological,
08:56and in terms of the mid-term trend,
08:58the short-term trend has not yet changed from the bearish trend.
09:01Okay, like that.
09:02Yes, Rp9,800 means that the investors
09:04are trying to get back to the stocks
09:07that are considered cheap and the correction is quite deep, sir,
09:10compared to BBCA and BUMN's big cap bank, Mr. Nicholas?
09:14That's right.
09:15So, maybe the nature is more of a bargain hunting,
09:18and indeed, the market players are more into trading.
09:21Okay, in the middle of the strengthening of Samsung's price,
09:23there is a significant connection today, sir.
09:25The largest capitalization stock in the Indonesian stock market is Brand.
09:29Today, it seems to be a heavy hitter,
09:31correction at 5.96%,
09:33and is getting further away from the level of Rp10,000.
09:36Analysis and your recommendation for Brand?
09:39Okay, for Brand, we see that the stock has been corrected,
09:42the price, and remember,
09:44the price has also risen significantly
09:46and quite excessive, it can be said.
09:48Then also technically,
09:50the price has managed to close,
09:52almost closed the gap at level Rp10,725,
09:55where the high was at level Rp10,650.
10:00So, it's more or less different points from the gap,
10:03and we see that this is a fairly normal profit making,
10:05but in terms of the trend, it has not yet changed from the next trend,
10:08maybe we can consider wait and see first,
10:11until the price manages to rebound again,
10:13and maybe the levels can be monitored.
10:15Now it's at Rp9,000, up to level Rp8,660.
10:20Okay.
10:21Brand became a heavy hitter,
10:235.96% at Rp9,075.
10:26Earlier, the resistance support was at Rp9,000 up to Rp8,650.
10:30And again, the decision to invest
10:32is still in the hands of the ADX Channel shareholder.
10:34Mr. Nicholas, let's go back first,
10:36later we will try to see the options that you have recommended,
10:39and at the same time, update the closing of trading in the second session today.
10:43We will be back in a moment.