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00:00Now a two-year long political vacuum has come to an end in Lebanon. Yesterday
00:06Nawaf Salam was appointed Prime Minister four days after Joseph Aoun was named
00:11the country's president. The pair may now represent the start of a new chapter in
00:16Lebanese politics after Hezbollah lost significant influence in the wake of the
00:21war with Israel last year. While Salam has been speaking in Beirut this morning
00:27here's a little of his message to the Lebanese people.
00:35After the suffering, sorrows and pains as a result of the latest brutal Israeli
00:40aggression on Lebanon and because of the worst economic crisis and financial
00:45policies that made the Lebanese poor, time has come to say enough.
00:50Well let's speak live on the program now to Gilbert Ashkar. He's a Lebanese
00:55researcher and a professor at the School of Oriental and African Studies in
01:00London. Good afternoon to you and thanks for talking to us today about these
01:04developments out of Beirut. Look there were celebrations yesterday evening
01:10when Salam was named Prime Minister. Does his appointment and that of Joseph
01:17Aoun as president represent the start of a new era now in Lebanon?
01:22Well that's obviously the case because that's a radical change in the situation.
01:29Both the new president and the new prime minister were considered to be a part of
01:39the pro-western alliance and they were opposed for this reason by Hezbollah and
01:49its own allies. And what is happening now is an expression of the radical change in
01:56the balance of forces in the country that resulted from one the Israeli
02:02onslaught on Hezbollah which has been extremely damaging to the organization
02:07and to the downfall of the Assad regime which was a major link between Hezbollah
02:15and Iran. So the balance of forces in Lebanon has been radically altered and
02:21this set of president and prime minister that we have is something
02:30that wouldn't have been possible just three months ago. Well let's talk a bit
02:35about those two men then Salam and Aoun because back in 2019 in Lebanon there
02:41were these major protests, people out of the street saying effectively Lebanon's
02:46entire political class was corrupt. Now that was before the port explosion that
02:52many people have linked with corruption as well. I'm interested in whether you
02:56think that Salam and Aoun have been tarnished by those kind of allegations
03:01of corruption or whether these two figures are seen really as rather
03:04different. No none of the two especially not Nawaf Salam is regarded as being
03:13corrupt or having had any connection with the corruption which is endemic in
03:19the country but the problem is not this or that individual it's the whole system
03:24and this is a very corrupt system that we have in Lebanon both the official
03:31system and the private sector the banking sector all of this is very
03:36corrupt and well it would take a huge lot of social and political change to be
03:44able to overcome this. I mean well we can give some the benefit of doubt to the
03:53new government but this won't be an easy task absolutely.
03:59Clearly significant challenges ahead I suppose one of them is Lebanon's economy
04:05do you think now it'll be easier for foreign investment to flow into Lebanon
04:11clearly that's desperately needed after that financial crisis a couple of years
04:16ago and as you say as well in the wake of the Israeli bombardments last year.
04:21No I don't think so for the time being and that translates in the fact that the
04:27Lebanese currency has not improved despite these changes well it might yet
04:34it might still improve a little bit but this is obviously I think the
04:41acknowledgement of the fact that the key problem in the country that the fact
04:47that you have a state within the state represented by Hezbollah and military
04:52force which albeit weakened after the Israeli onslaught is still a formidable
05:00force coexisting with the regular army all this problem is is not on its way to
05:11vanishing anytime soon and this people understand this and that that is what
05:17will hamper if you want any kind of economic revival of the country.
05:24That's interesting you think that Hezbollah still wields significant
05:29influence they remain powerful even though Hassan Nasrallah the group's
05:34leader was killed last year tell us a bit about why you believe they've
05:40now lost influence in Parliament as well so just explain to us why you think they
05:44still hold a significant sway.
05:46Well because of the fact that they are a military force and that's the key point
05:53they are not only a popular force and we know that you know how the I mean how
05:59Lebanon is a is a multi-sectarian country and Hezbollah is definitely the
06:07key force among the Shia community in Lebanon it is a formidable military
06:14force and it remains so and it is backed by Iran which even though it has
06:22suffered very clear defeat especially with the downfall of Assad in Syria
06:28remains a major regional player so all this is not going to vanish you know in
06:3624 hours and this complicates the situation.
06:41Gilbert Ashkar talking to us there live from SOAS in London thank you very much
06:46indeed sir for your time and for your analysis today.