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00:00Next, a hostage ceasefire deal in the Middle East is still under discussion this Wednesday,
00:05but does seem now to be closer than ever before.
00:08Mediators say that they are making a final push to seal the deal that would calm Israeli
00:13attacks on Gaza and begin releasing some of the dozens of hostages still being held 15
00:18months after they were taken by Hamas.
00:21We're going to talk more about this potential deal with Middle East expert and former hostage
00:25negotiator Gershon Baskin, who joins me now from Jerusalem.
00:28Gershon, you were the person responsible for the secret back channel between Israel and
00:33Hamas that successfully negotiated the release of another hostage, Gilad Shalit, in 2011.
00:39What are you hearing now from your sources about all of the details of this deal that
00:42are on the table?
00:43Well, we're negotiating the same deal that's been on the table since the end of May when
00:48it was presented by President Biden.
00:50It's taken months before there was the political will to do the deal, and the main difference
00:55between then and now is January 20th and the entry of Donald Trump into the White House.
01:01Trump has let it be known to the Israelis, to the Qataris, the Egyptians, and to Hamas
01:06that he expects a deal to be done before he enters the White House.
01:08He wants his war over.
01:09He wants the hostages home.
01:11And everyone seems to be taking him seriously, his special emissary Steve Witkoff is working
01:18hand in hand with Brett McGurk from the Biden White House in working with the Qataris, the
01:23Egyptians, and the Israelis to get the deal done.
01:25And I think we are very, very close.
01:27Now, in regard to what would be inside this deal, we are hearing things from different
01:32sources.
01:33In regard to this particular hostage release, there would be a first phase, a first phase
01:38with some 33 hostages released.
01:41But then we're getting reporting from media like Haaretz who are saying that the government
01:45of Israel has no intention of then ever getting to phase two.
01:49What are your thoughts on that?
01:50Well, we really don't know that.
01:51I'm assuming that since Hamas has agreed to enter into phase one, and until now their
01:56demand was that there be an obligation or an international assurance that phase two
02:01would lead to an end to the war.
02:02I'm assuming that they got that assurance from the Qataris and the Egyptians through
02:06the White House, through the Trump White House, that in fact the war would end.
02:10According to the agreement on day 16 of the first 42 days, they're supposed to begin negotiations
02:15on phase two.
02:17By day 30, they're supposed to finish those negotiations and the ceasefire should continue
02:21into the second 42 day period, during which time all the remaining 65 Israeli hostages
02:27would be returned in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and Israel would withdraw from Gaza.
02:33There are many difficulties in a deal which takes so long to implement.
02:36It should have been really a much quicker deal of three weeks, not three months.
02:39But nonetheless, it will be done.
02:43It has to be done.
02:44This war has to end.
02:45Indeed.
02:46And I guess this begs the question, is a bad deal better than no deal?
02:51It is a bad deal, and it is better than no deal.
02:53Not all bad deals are better than no deals.
02:55This one is, because every human life that's saved, whether it be on the side of Gaza or
03:00the Israeli hostages or Israeli civilians on the other side of the border, is a whole
03:04universe.
03:05We need to stop the war.
03:06We need to stop the killing and the death and destruction on all sides, and we need
03:10to bring the hostages home.
03:12So even if some of the hostages are brought home and not all of them are brought home,
03:15it's better than not bringing any of them home.
03:18And just to wrap up, what about the far-right members of Netanyahu's government who have
03:21been resistant to a deal?
03:23I mean, might they block this from happening now?
03:25No, they can't.
03:26They don't have a majority in the government.
03:28They could vote against it.
03:29I don't think they will bolt the government.
03:31There's nothing in it for them to leave the government.
03:33They want the Netanyahu government to continue to be in power.
03:36These people from the far right in Israel never dreamed of being in positions of such
03:40power, and it would be political suicide for them to abandon the government that they support.
03:46So I think they'll vote against.
03:47They'll stay in the government.
03:48Even if they leave the government, it's only damage to themselves.
03:51And in fact, from a broader political picture, it would be better if this government falls
03:56faster rather than later.
03:59And Gershon, just before you go, something you touched on at the beginning of our talk
04:03today.
04:04Do you really think that this is happening now just because Donald Trump is coming into
04:07office in five days' time?
04:08A hundred percent.
04:10It wouldn't have happened without Trump.
04:12Israel has made concessions that it refused to make until now in terms of movement of
04:16Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, in terms of releasing prisoners with blood on their hands,
04:21in terms of committing apparently to end the war.
04:25And I think likewise, the Egyptians and the Qataris have a lot of interest with the new
04:29American administration.
04:31It's a complex administration.
04:33Trump is transactional, and everyone wants to be on the right side of the deal.