Von EU-Dynamik über den Ukraine-Krieg bis zur Migration: Klaus Welle beleuchtet Europas Zukunft und die großen Herausforderungen unserer Zeit.
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00:00Germany is set to go to the polls in February, but meanwhile the fate of Ukraine hangs in the balance as the Trump administration is due to unveil its Ukraine policy.
00:17For the Europe conversation I catch up with Klaus Welle, former Secretary General of the European Parliament and now Chair of the Martin Center Academic Council.
00:26I caught up with him at the Martin Center Forum for European Ideas 2024 and I started by asking him about leadership in Europe.
00:36You're welcome Klaus and thanks very much for joining us here.
00:39There's so much to talk about, but I might just ask you a little bit first of all about the country you know best and Germany and the German politics at the moment.
00:47I suppose your own assessment about how things are vis-à-vis the situation in Ukraine.
00:53I mean there are many people who are saying that because of the collapse of the government now German leadership is missing.
00:59But the truth is that German leadership was already missing during the last three years.
01:07A new word has been coined which is called the German vote, which means abstention.
01:15And the German ambassador to the European Union had to write a kind of open letter back to Berlin saying putting me in an impossible situation because I have no position to defend.
01:27Do you believe then with a new government in place the situation will change dramatically regarding the support for Ukraine, military support for Ukraine, specifically terrorist missiles and the use of them in Russian territory?
01:39The leader of the German opposition of the CDU-CSU Friedrich Merz has said he would allow terrorist missiles to be delivered.
01:49Of course it will not be a one-party government, it will be probably a two-party government, CDU-CSU plus Social Democrats or plus the Greens.
01:57And I believe if it were to be in alliance with the Greens, Germany would more strongly engage, including terrorist missiles.
02:07The Social Democrats have a problem because their parliamentary group leader is also the leader you could say of the pacifist faction.
02:16And therefore Olaf Scholz always had to do a balancing act with the left wing of his party.
02:21Chancellor Merkel in her autobiography has defended her position as Chancellor in relation to accessing cheap energy from Russia, gas and oil and so on.
02:34What's your own feeling around this? Because that's something that Germany has been heavily criticized for because despite all the clear warning signs around Crimea, Georgia and interference in European and American elections.
02:48I do not agree that Angela Merkel is singled out on this issue because if you have a closer look, Poland was completely dependent on Russian gas, Czech Republic was completely dependent, Slovakia was completely dependent, Hungary was completely dependent, Austria is still completely dependent more or less and Germany was.
03:11It didn't start with Merkel, it started before. It didn't end with Merkel, it just ended because of the Ukraine war. So I think to see the personal responsibility of Angela Merkel would not be correct.
03:27Because the Baltic countries would say that they sounded clear warnings to Germany, to the European Union over the past decade about a co-dependent or an interdependent relationship with Russia vis-a-vis energy. Would you then argue that that wasn't the case?
03:44I think they were very clear and I think we should have listened more. And the Baltic countries have the advantage that they had to live in the Soviet Union. And when I say live in the Soviet Union, this is too nice a word. Many of them were deported to Siberia.
04:00We had an EPP Group Vice President who was born in the Gulag. This was an attempt for genocide, you could say, for national extinction. And still they survived and they imposed themselves and they became very important members of the European Union.
04:19How do you assess the situation we're in now in relation to Russia when you're talking about an escalation, at least 10,000 North Korean troops, Iranian support, Chinese support for Russia? And not, I mean, huge criticism around the European Union, but what will the future hold with regard to joint procurement and supporting each other around defense?
04:43I think that the defense needs are so urgent, especially if Russia should continue to produce at the scale they are currently producing. And to be honest, you're Irish. I think the times when Ireland could just relax and say, look, we don't have to participate in these defense activities because we are very well protected, very well covered.
05:08The Irish economy defense depends on undersea cables with the United States. And we've now seen several attempts, the last one between Germany and Finland, to destroy this infrastructure. So I think it's also time that Ireland deeply reflects how it can defend its vital economic, political and military interests.
05:30Are you confident that we are going to be unified in this confrontation with Russia for the next few years? When you look at the hostility when it comes to, let's say, NATO membership for Ukraine or even Ukrainian membership of the European Union from countries like Hungary, Slovakia, when you have unanimous at the table, the voting table, I mean, this is going to be problematic over the next while.
05:51The support in the European Union is holding. Of course, we might see an acceleration of events, which is testing our resolve again. In case Donald Trump should be successful with his push for Russia and Ukraine to agree on a ceasefire, in case they should do that, the next day the question will be on the table, who is guaranteeing the sovereignty of Ukraine.
06:21The free part of Ukraine, which is still about 80 percent. And I think that question will be directed rather to the Europeans than to the Americans.
06:52It appears to me that the most likely scenario is that a kind of ceasefire will be agreed. Ukraine will not agree to cede territory, but it will have to accept that for a time which is unknown, this territory is under foreign control, under Russian control.
07:11And that, to a certain extent, is similar to the situation of West Germany and East Germany. So, West Germany was free, West Germany was democratic, but the East was occupied by the Soviet Union.
07:25But we never gave up the hope, the vision, the desire to see the country reunified. We had to wait 40 years until 1989 and finally it happened when the right moment was there.
07:40But this meant that West Germany was safe. We had American troops, we had British troops, we had French troops. So, I think what Ukraine can legitimately demand is that it will also be safe.
07:55And I personally do not believe that it can be safe without the support also of foreign troops in its own territory. And I believe that's most likely going to be European troops.
08:08America would say, yes, not American troops, it would just be very specifically European troops that would guard territory within Ukraine that would be covered by a NATO security guarantee. Is that what you're saying?
08:21I believe the Americans are focusing more and more on China. And I believe also they expect with some justification that Europeans take more responsibility for the security on their own continent.
08:36And I think that's what we have to do. And the way to do that in an efficient way is to strengthen cooperation in the European Union and between the European Union and NATO.
08:47And there cannot be a successful economic development in the free part of Ukraine without proper security. And those securities cannot be the guarantees of the Budapest Memorandum. We all know the value of that which was, let's say, very close to zero.
09:07So an end of hostilities will need a real engagement for the security of the free part of Ukraine. It will need helping them on their way, on their path to the European Union, because otherwise also there will be no foreign investment in Ukraine, which is desperately needed.
09:28The Russian people are proud people. They will not be happy over the long time to become a raw material colony of China. And that's what they're about to become.
09:42China has not yet finalized the agreement on the delivery of gas from northern Siberia to China because they want the prices to go further down.
09:52Prices to go further down might mean that Russia has to sell below the cost of production. That's what's called a colonial exploitation.
10:03So can Russia, which is a proud country, can they accept to become a raw material colony of China? I don't think so.
10:12So I believe it's in Russia's self-interest to not just have one client and one customer for their raw material or for their gas, but to become a more respected part of the global order and global economy again.
10:30But what would be the off-ramp for Vladimir Putin to agree to that? Because this sounds like a victory for Ukraine, somewhat of a victory for Ukraine.
10:39You're not giving up permanently or formally territory with a view to taking it back within a certain amount of time.
10:47Greater Russia hasn't been recreated, Putin has failed, NATO has expanded. Why would he agree to this, notwithstanding all the important points he made about Russian influence in Syria and Africa being under threat?
11:03I mean, Russia, when they started the war, were hoping for a very quick victory. A week, four weeks, that is clearly not the case.
11:11They probably have lost by now 200,000 Russian people, which is a lot. Russia already has a demographic problem, which is major.
11:20So they also have limitations, which is, by the way, why they're bringing in North Koreans to die for them or why they've been using very much national minorities to die for them.
11:31So Russia will want to negotiate at least a partial lifting of the sanctions. That might be on the plus side. But I think they will also be confronted by a tough position of the United States.
11:44Okay, well, Klaus Feller, Chairman of the Academic Council of the Martin Center, thank you very much for joining us at the Europe Conversation. We really appreciate it. That was fascinating. Thank you.
11:53Thank you.
12:00Thank you.