CGTN Europe spoke to Isabel Hilton, founder of China Dialogue.
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00:00Isabel Hilson is the founder of the non-profit organization China Dialogue.
00:05I think there are always two audiences out there for a leader's New Year message.
00:09So for the domestic audience, I noted his concern about the economic uncertainties that people have been facing for a few years.
00:19And he talks about new challenges, uncertainties in the external environment
00:23and the difficulties of this transformation that China is undergoing from the old growth drivers into the new ones.
00:31And though he delivers a very positive message about growth,
00:34but he also implicitly acknowledges that not everybody is benefiting from that growth
00:40and that people are worried about elder care, about jobs for young people, about health.
00:45And he specifically says of all the jobs in front of us, the most important is to ensure a happy life for our people.
00:52So he's signaling that he's aware of the fact that many people are anxious,
00:56whilst also reflecting pride in China's scientific achievements,
01:00China's technological advances and the role that China is playing in the world.
01:06And for an international audience, he is acknowledging that there are a lot of uncertainties as we enter 2025,
01:13not least a change in the U.S. presidency, war in the Middle East and, of course, the Russian invasion of Ukraine,
01:20which he doesn't mention, but that's part of the general picture of uncertainty.
01:25China lives in a wider economic landscape in the world.
01:29How easy will it be to fill these ambitions given, as you say, the geopolitical tensions, Trump tariffs, wars and the like?
01:42Well, yes, it's very difficult to be certain really about anything in 2025.
01:48The Chinese economy has delivered some positives, but there are also some uncertainties.
01:55I think the underlying problems of the Chinese economy, the property market collapse and local authority debt,
02:04I think those are going to continue to be a drag on the economy.
02:09And at the same time, as you say, we have an incoming U.S. president who is threatening major tariffs on Chinese goods
02:17and some concerns in Europe also about the high value exports, EVs and so on and their impact on the domestic industrial economy.
02:26So it's not going to be entirely straightforward, I think, for the Chinese economy or indeed for anybody else.
02:33But, you know, there are some positives as well as some negatives.
02:36And I think that was the real core of the message.
02:40Just talk about life closer to home.
02:42China and the EU experiencing tensions in 2024 due to the EU's imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
02:52What's your take on the future of China-Europe relations in this new year, in 2025?
03:00Well, that is the question of the impact on the industrial economy, particularly EVs, is going to continue, I think.
03:09The EU imposition of CBAM, the carbon border adjustment mechanism, which I think China is probably quite well prepared for.
03:21But there will be some rhetorical to and fro around that.
03:25The big question, of course, is the war in Ukraine and the fact now that two of China's closest allies, Russia and North Korea,
03:34are actively fighting in Ukraine is going to continue to cast a shadow over EU-China relations.
03:41And I think that China could greatly help EU-China relations if it could find a way of using its influence more proactively to bring that situation to a close.
03:54Because as long as it's happening, I think those tensions will continue.