Tahun 2024 menjadi catatan tersendiri bagi perjalanan ekonomi global dan dalam negeri dan di tengah upaya kebangkitan ekonomi pascapandemi Covid-19, ekonomi dunia harus menghadapi berbagai tantangan yang kompleks dan beragam. Tantangan tersebut mulai dari konflik geopolitik hingga proyeksi ekonomi global dan negara-negara besar di dunia yang masih melemah.
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00:00Geopolitics
00:05Let's start with the first piece of information.
00:072024 will be a milestone for the global and domestic economic journey.
00:12And in the midst of the economic revival after the COVID-19 pandemic,
00:16the world economy must face various complex and diverse challenges.
00:21Yes, the challenges, starting from geopolitical conflicts
00:24to the global economic projection and large countries in the world that are still weak.
00:29So, how is the global and domestic economic journey throughout 2024?
00:35Here's the coverage.
00:412024 is coming to an end.
00:44Throughout this year, the world is facing various complex and diverse challenges,
00:49starting from geopolitical conflicts,
00:51changes in political leadership in many countries,
00:54to the global economic projection and large countries in the world that are still weak.
00:59Throughout this year, the world is indeed in an uncertain global situation.
01:04Political agendas and changes in leadership,
01:06both in developed countries and developing countries,
01:08will create new leaders
01:11and will certainly cause a difference in policy direction,
01:15including the general election in Indonesia
01:17and create changes in leadership from President Joko Widodo to President Prabowo Subianto.
01:24Not only changes in leadership in various countries,
01:27the effects of the Russian-Ukrainian war that is still felt,
01:30geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the South China Sea are still not over,
01:36as well as affecting the stability of the global and national economy,
01:39which has not fully recovered from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
01:44In the country, the celebration of democracy and the momentum of Ramadan
01:47is recognized as a stimulus for the growth of the national economy,
01:51in the middle of the economic activity of developed countries in the world.
01:54Throughout the first quarter of 2024,
01:57the Central Statistical Body notes that the national economic growth
02:00is at 5.11% annually.
02:04Economic growth in this first quarter
02:07was the highest throughout 2019 to 2024.
02:13National economic growth is recorded to slow in the second quarter.
02:17Nevertheless, economic growth is still on a solid track
02:21and shows resilience by achieving economic growth
02:25at a level of 5.5% annually.
02:28In the midst of uncertainty and various global challenges that still haunt,
02:33domestic economic growth in the third quarter is again contracted
02:37to a level of 4.95% annually.
02:42The government acknowledges the slowdown in economic growth in the third quarter
02:46as a three-month cycle.
02:48In the third quarter, economic growth tends to decline
02:51compared to the previous quarter.
02:53Moreover, in this quarter, there is no big and special events,
02:57such as religious holidays or school holidays,
03:00like the previous quarter.
03:03The Central Statistical Body notes that based on the field of business,
03:06the manufacturing industry sector is the largest source of economic growth.
03:10Meanwhile, according to the release,
03:12national economic growth is still contributed by household consumption.
03:16Despite experiencing a slowdown trend,
03:18the government is optimistic that economic growth at the end of 2024
03:22is still at 5%.
03:25With the economic development that we monitor and predict
03:31until the end of 2024,
03:35we estimate economic growth until the end of the year
03:41to reach 5.1%.
03:46In the midst of a global economic condition that has not been determined throughout 2024,
03:51Indonesian trade is on a positive track.
03:55Trade has recorded a surplus throughout 2024.
04:00Throughout January to September,
04:03the BPS recorded a surplus of Indonesian trade
04:06reaching US$28.86 billion.
04:10The figure is supported by exports
04:12which reached US$241.25 billion
04:16and imports US$212.39 billion.
04:22However, the positive trend of Indonesian trade
04:25is actually not balanced with industrial activities in the country,
04:28especially in the manufacturing sector.
04:31This is reflected in the trend of continuous job relationships,
04:35stopping industrial activities
04:37until the long-term contraction of the domestic manufacturing industry,
04:40one of which is the textile industry and textile products.
04:45The decline in demand from domestic and foreign countries
04:47has an impact on the activities of the manufacturing industry in Indonesia,
04:51which used to be at level 54.2,
04:54Indonesia's manufacturing index continues to decline.
04:57In fact, the manufacturing index until November
05:00experienced a contraction below 50.
05:04The manufacturing index in July was at level 49.3
05:09and August was at level 48.9,
05:12while the manufacturing index in September and October
05:15stagnated at level 49.2.
05:18The manufacturing index in November experienced a contraction
05:21at level 49.6.
05:25The decline in the manufacturing industry,
05:27due to geopolitical and unstable economic conditions,
05:30led to a halt in the activities of the manufacturing industry.
05:34As a result, thousands of workers must be fired.
05:37According to the Ministry of Employment,
05:40until October 2024,
05:4263,947 workers across Indonesia
05:47experienced job relationships.
05:51The figure increased from the same year in 2023,
05:55which reached 45,000 people.
05:58The trend of job relationships
06:00that occurred throughout 2024
06:03made the unemployment rate in Indonesia increase.
06:06The Ministry of Employment noted that the unemployment rate per August 2024
06:10reached 7.47 million people,
06:13with the unemployment rate reaching 4.91 million people.
06:18A higher figure than February 2024,
06:21which reached 7.2 million people,
06:24with the unemployment rate reaching 4.82 million people.
06:28The Ministry of Employment stated that the increase in the unemployment rate
06:31was influenced by the PHK trend that occurred throughout this year.
06:36As is known, the unemployment rate
06:39is one of the important indicators
06:41reflecting the dynamics of the economy
06:43and the labor market of a country.
06:46The unemployment rate itself is defined
06:48as the percentage of unemployment
06:50compared to the number of jobs.
06:54Reported by IDX Channel