Gold-Silver Prices Outlook In 2025: साल 2024 में सोने के दामों में 7300 रुपये प्रति 10 ग्राम का उछाल देखने को मिला है जो कि पिछले 10 सालों में सबसे ज्यादा है. वहीं, चांदी ने इस साल 35% तक का रिटर्न दिया है. ऐसे में सवाल उठता है कि 2025 में निवेश के लिए ज्यादा बेहतर क्या है? निवेशक Gold में निवेश करें या Silver में(Gold vs Silver)? समझिए Manoj Kumar Jain, Director-Prithvi Finmart से
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi, this is Bhavna and you are watching Good Returns.
00:03Silver has been very bright this year.
00:06If we see from January, then silver has given a return of almost 35%.
00:11This means that if you had invested in silver on January 1, then you could have got a return of up to 35%.
00:20If we compare it with gold, then gold has given a return of almost 30%.
00:26Silver has been outperforming this time.
00:29So how will silver be in 2025?
00:33How will its performance be?
00:34What will be the outlook?
00:35How do you want to invest?
00:37What strategy do you want to make?
00:38How much do you want to keep the silver asset in the portfolio?
00:42We will try to find out everything.
00:44In today's episode, we have with us Manoj Kumar Jain, who is the director of Prithvi Pen Markets.
00:51Sir, welcome to you and thank you for talking to us.
00:56Sir, first of all, let's talk about August 2024.
01:00Silver has performed very well.
01:02We have seen a silver shine here.
01:04Silver has touched the level of almost Rs. 1 lakh this year.
01:09What do you think, sir?
01:10Were there any reasons that led to such a surge in silver this year?
01:15Namaskar, Bhavna ji.
01:16First of all, thank you for inviting me here.
01:19Yes, absolutely.
01:20We can say that there has been a bright year for silver in 2024.
01:26Silver has given excellent returns to investors in terms of precious metals.
01:32If we talk about silver here, then not only have we seen the demand of investors in silver,
01:40but we have also seen the industrial demand in India in the middle of 2024.
01:47Not only in India, but in all the countries of the world, the industrial demand for silver has been increasing.
01:54Because the focus of the world is on the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy.
02:05Because of that, we are seeing that whether it is the electronic medical industry,
02:10or whether it is the solar industry or the automobile industry,
02:14we are seeing that the demand for silver has been increasing.
02:18Because of that, we have seen that the prices in the international market
02:22have been testing the level of $35 once again after 2013.
02:28And we have seen lifetime highs in the Indian markets in terms of silver prices.
02:33And in the middle of the year, we have seen silver reaching the level of up to Rs. 1 lakh.
02:38Along with the demand of investors, we have also seen an increase in industrial demand.
02:44And as a result, we have seen silver giving better returns in 2024.
02:52Sir, if we compare gold and silver in 2024, what do you think?
02:56What has been the movement in both these assets?
03:00It has been much better.
03:02Even in gold, we have seen that for the first time in the international market,
03:06the prices have crossed the level of $2,800.
03:09And in the Indian markets, despite a big duty cut,
03:12we have seen gold testing the level of about Rs. 80,000.
03:16So, we can say that both gold and silver have been moving at the same pace.
03:21But we have seen a slight outperformance of silver compared to gold.
03:25So, both the precious metals have given better returns to investors in 2024.
03:32And here, the gold and silver returns have left the other asset classes behind in 2024.
03:40So, the year 2024 has been a very bright year for the investors of precious metals.
03:48Sir, in 2024, we have seen both silver and gold shining.
03:55If we talk about 2025, in 2024, both had a hold.
03:59As you said, silver has also touched its all-time high.
04:04Gold has also touched its all-time high.
04:07So, if we talk about 2025, who do you think is going to be hit hard?
04:13What will be the outlook of silver?
04:16And apart from this, what levels will you see in silver as it touches its all-time high?
04:23In the year 2025, we believe that the outperformance of silver will continue compared to gold.
04:30We will see a consistent return in gold in the year 2024.
04:34But the outperformance of silver can continue.
04:37There are many reasons.
04:39We have seen a big slowdown in China's economy in the year 2024.
04:46And after that, China has been continuously talking about stimulus.
04:51And the Chinese government has also given a lot of stimulus.
04:55But we can say that there has been a big change in the year 2024.
04:59The world has changed once again in 2024.
05:02When President Donald Trump re-elected in the US.
05:06And he is continuously talking about tariffs.
05:10That he will impose tariffs on China, on European countries, on India.
05:15Because of that, we are seeing that there has been a huge increase in the dollar index in recent times.
05:21So, the year 2025 will also be a very uncertain year.
05:26Because of that, there will be a demand for precious metals.
05:29But in order to counter US tariffs, big stimulus from China can be issued in the year 2025.
05:39So, the industrial demand for silver will be boosted.
05:45We have also seen a big slowdown in Europe due to the Russia-Ukraine war.
05:50So, if there is any development in the Russia-Ukraine war.
05:56And if the war ceases there, then the European economy will also be revived.
06:05Secondly, we are seeing that the focus of the government is on green energy.
06:11And the government has also increased the capex in that direction.
06:15So, the industrial demand here will be better in the year 2025.
06:18So, for silver, the year 2025 can also be a better year.
06:22And just like in 2024, we can see better returns in silver in the year 2025.
06:27We believe that in the international market, silver is much below its lifetime price of $50.
06:34So, that level will not be visible.
06:37But silver can show up to $40 in the international market.
06:41And in the Indian markets, we believe that silver can be seen at $115,000 to $120,000 in the year 2025.
06:49We can see a weakness in rupee here.
06:52And in the first half of the year 2025, we can see a drop of about 2% to 2.5% in rupee.
06:59And its support will also be seen in the value of silver.
07:03So, overall, the year 2025 will also be a better year for silver in terms of returns.
07:10And we believe that silver can be seen at $115,000 to $120,000 in the Indian markets.
07:19So, the way you have told us about all the impacts, what will be the reasons for the increase in silver?
07:26Now, in 2024, we saw a level of up to $100,000.
07:30In 2025, we can also see a level of up to $115,000 to $20,000.
07:34Sir, now if we look at the investment, which asset will be better, gold or silver, in 2025?
07:43In comparison to gold, there can be more outperformance in silver.
07:47But gold should also be included in the portfolio.
07:50If you are making an ideal portfolio and if you are allocating 15% to 20% for gold and silver,
07:58then if you are allocating 20% in your overall portfolio for precious metals,
08:03then keep 8% of it in gold and 12% in silver.
08:07You should keep a little more weightage in silver.
08:10Because we are still seeing that there is a possibility of better returns here.
08:15But this does not mean that there will be no returns in gold.
08:19Consistency will continue in gold.
08:21Because the year 2025 can also be a year of global uncertainties.
08:25Along with that, there are also concerns about inflation here.
08:29And if there is a cut in the interest rates here,
08:34then there will be support here.
08:36So, the weightage should be given a little more to silver in the portfolio.
08:39We can say that the ratio of 60-40 should be kept here in gold and silver.
08:43Whatever you are allocating for precious metals, do it for that.
08:49Sir, one more thing that we often see is that silver is more volatile.
08:54We get to see a little sharp fluctuation in this as compared to gold.
08:59The fluctuation in this is around 25%.
09:01And the fluctuation in gold is around 11-14%.
09:04And maybe this is the reason that it is a little unproductive and a little more volatile.
09:09Because of this, people prefer gold over silver as an investment.
09:15If we consider all these factors in this way,
09:18how do you consider silver safe?
09:21And what people think, investors think that silver is more volatile.
09:26So, first of all, what is the reason behind the volatility?
09:29And secondly, what advice would you like to give to such investors?
09:34The main reason behind the volatility in silver is that
09:37it is an industrial metal along with a precious metal.
09:40So, we see that whenever there is an industrial slowdown or any news of that kind,
09:46then we see that volatility in silver increases a little more as compared to gold.
09:52Another major reason is that this is the nature of industrial metals as well.
09:57And we have seen that in the last quarter of 2024,
10:02there was a big decline in industrial metals.
10:05Because in China, the possibility of stiffness was not seen as much.
10:09In the second dollar index, after the re-election of Trump,
10:13there was a big increase.
10:15Because of this, we have seen that there are sharp corrections.
10:20So, due to the nature of industrial metals, there is a lot of volatility here.
10:24But we have seen that the returns are also better there.
10:28Secondly, we are seeing that the deficit of this metal is increasing due to the increase in industrial usage.
10:36And also, gold has become a very expensive metal compared to silver.
10:42So, we are seeing that the trend of silver ornaments is also increasing.
10:49So, in the coming time, not only will we see an increase in industrial demand in silver,
10:54but the demand of investors will also be there.
10:58And here, the demand of the jewelry industry will also be seen to be better.
11:02So, overall, the future of silver looks very bright here.
11:06Yes, due to such a big level, there will definitely be volatility.
11:09So, to counter that, we can say that the investors here,
11:13the systematic investment plan in which you invest in mutual funds,
11:17you invest in silver in that way.
11:19Don't do it on one level.
11:21Whenever there is a fall, you invest in parts at different levels.
11:26So, your investment will not be at one level, but at different levels.
11:32So, there is a possibility of making better returns there.
11:37You said that it can be invested through mutual funds.
11:40Sir, because people give so much preference to gold, it is considered a safe haven asset.
11:46So, gold gets more preference as an investment.
11:49There are many people who do not know how to buy silver physically.
11:55So, sir, please tell the viewers what are the options through which we can buy silver or invest in silver.
12:04There are many ways to invest in silver.
12:06The most traditional way is to go to the jewelry shop and buy any coin or bar.
12:14Secondly, you can open a Demat account in your trading account in MCX.
12:21You can also take silver in the denomination of 1 kg, 5 kg and 30 kg in your Demat account.
12:28And you can also hold it for a long period of time.
12:31If you feel that after a certain time, you have to deliver that material back from your Demat account,
12:37then you can also deliver that metal on the exchange platform.
12:42But if you physically lift that metal from the exchange vault, then it is not re-delivered in the exchange.
12:49So, you should take care of this.
12:50Along with this, there are silver mutual funds for small investors,
12:55where you can start investing with a minimum amount of Rs. 100.
13:00And such investors who have Demat accounts and who actively trade on the NSE or BSE platform,
13:08they can also take the ETF of silver here.
13:12The value of one ETF is in a very small denomination.
13:17You can start investing with a minimum amount of Rs. 80.
13:23It is also a very small part of 1 gram.
13:26So, you can start investing with that small denomination there.
13:30So, there are many options for famous investments here.
13:37And from that, the investor can choose according to his risk appetite and time horizon.
13:43Mutual funds for small investors.
13:46And the ETF of silver is a better option for investment.
13:50And we are seeing that the interest rate of investors is increasing there.
13:54And that is very good for investment.
13:59Sir, you have told us a lot of options.
14:01But personally, what do you think is the best option for long-term investment in India?
14:11If you want to go for long-term investment for small investors,
14:15then you can choose the ETF of mutual funds and silver.
14:18There is no doubt in that in terms of investment.
14:22And both are safe.
14:24If they want to do systematic SIP, they can choose the ETF of mutual funds.
14:31If they are active traders who trade in the share market,
14:35then they can also choose the ETF of silver.
14:38On the other hand, if the big investors do not want to take it physically,
14:45then they can open a Demat account in MCX and invest in silver for a long term.
14:51Because there you do not have to hold it physically.
14:55The way your shares are in Demat,
14:58similarly, silver can also be kept in your Demat account for a long term.
15:02So the big investors who are planning for long-term investment,
15:07they can also open a Demat account in MCX and take silver there.
15:12And for small investors, the ETF of mutual funds and silver is a better option.
15:18If we talk from January to December 2025,
15:24what range are you hoping for silver?
15:29When will there be a dip in silver in 2025?
15:32When are the chances of silver becoming high?
15:35As far as the range is concerned, there can be a large range.
15:39Below, we believe that there is a possibility of $26 and above $40.
15:45The current trade is around $30 in the international market.
15:50So the downside is limited here.
15:52And the potential of the upside is very high.
15:55Secondly, if I talk about Indian markets,
15:58there is a trade of around $88,000 here.
16:02And in the downside, there is a potential to go from $1,15,000 to $1,20,000.
16:13As far as the dip is concerned,
16:15we believe that the current correction can be around $28,000 to $28,500 in the international market.
16:26And in Indian markets, it can be around $84,000 to $85,000.
16:29More than that, the downside is not visible here at the moment.
16:33So any investor who wants to invest now can invest in this downside.
16:40We believe that in the first half of 2025,
16:45around June-July, there should be a break in the international market,
16:49which was made in March 2024.
16:53And the level of 1 lakh in Indian markets should be crossed in the first half.
16:58And by Diwali, there will be a range of $40 in the international market
17:01and around $1,15,000 to $1,20,000 in Indian markets.
17:07So the first half can be much better here.
17:10And the current fall will be seen to settle somewhere in January.
17:15And gradually it will increase from there.
17:30As far as January is concerned,
17:32we believe that the fall can be seen in the first 15 days of January.
17:40So around $85,000 to $86,000 in Indian markets
17:43and around $28,000 to $28,500 in the international market.
17:48But by the end of January,
17:50we believe that the price will reach around $92,000 in Indian markets
17:55and $31 in the international market.
17:59So there can be some corrections in silver in the first 15 days.
18:03But by the end of the month, there is a possibility of a good recovery.
18:18The current time is the best time for buying.
18:22We have already seen around 12% to 14% corrections in silver in the markets.
18:29And this is a better time.
18:31As I said earlier, invest in SIP, invest in BART.
18:36So you can start from this level of $88,000.
18:40And gradually you can invest on a fall of Rs. 1,000 to Rs. 2,000.
18:44The bottom can remain around $82,000 this year.
18:48So keep that level in mind.
18:51Keep investing in BART on a fall.
18:54So by the end of 2025, there is a possibility of better returns here.
19:09There are many ETFs listed here.
19:13Benchmark, ICICI, Kotak, SBI, etc.
19:18There are many ETFs of AMCs listed here.
19:22So there is good liquidity in the market,
19:26whether it is listed on NSE or on the Bombay Stock Exchange.
19:30So investors can buy ETFs based on their confidence in AMCs.
19:36But all the listed ETFs are based on SEBI rules and regulations.
19:41So there is no risk here.
19:45The regulator has full control here.
19:49And the clearing corporation has a settlement guarantee here.
19:53So investors can choose based on that.
19:57Sir, what is the outlook of silver for the next 5 years?
20:01What are your expectations for the next 5 years?
20:05I believe that in the next 5 years,
20:09silver can reach the level of $70 to $80 in the international market.
20:13And in the next 5 years,
20:17silver can reach the level of $300,000 in the Indian market.
20:21And in the next 5 years,
20:25silver can reach the level of $100,000 to $100,000 in the Indian market.
20:29So the future of silver is very bright,
20:33not only in the international market, but also in the Indian market.
20:37Because the energy transition will increase more rapidly in the coming time.
20:41And the way we will see an increase in industrial demand,
20:45its impact on prices will be clearly visible.
20:49In 2011, we saw silver reaching the level of $50 in the international market.
20:53We are still below the previous high.
20:57If we cross that level,
21:01we will see an increase of 40-50%
21:05compared to the previous high.
21:09In that respect, silver can reach the level of $70 to $80.
21:13And in the next 5 years,
21:17we believe that silver can reach the level of $300,000 in the Indian market.
21:21Sir, how much percentage of the portfolio should we allocate in commodities?
21:25Specifically, if we talk about silver.
21:29Ideally, it is not possible for investors to invest in all the commodities here.
21:33Because there are no alternatives for small investors here.
21:37So gold and silver are the two best options for investing in commodities.
21:41So we believe that
21:45the way global uncertainty and currency volatility
21:49and geopolitical tensions and de-dollarization
21:53will continue in the future.
21:57So keeping that in mind,
22:01the allocation of 15-20% should be in gold and silver.
22:05So in that respect, they can design their portfolio.
22:09But the weightage of 15-20% should be given to gold and silver.
22:13Keeping in mind the long-term investment.
22:17Thank you so much, sir, for telling us about the outlook of silver.
22:21We have already talked about gold.
22:25As soon as January starts, we will talk about the outlook and how to invest.
22:29Thank you sir for joining us.
22:33So now you have heard that if we talk about the outlook of silver in 2025,
22:37its level can be 82,000, our lowest range.
22:41Apart from that, the high will be between 1,15,000 and 1,20,000.
22:45That means if you can invest in silver now,
22:49you can get a very good return by the end of the year.
22:53The way silver has outperformed this time in 2024,
22:57there are full chances of outperforming in 2025.
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