Libur Natal dan Tahun Baru selalu menjadi momentum dalam meningkatkan perputaran roda perekonomian nasional maupun daerah. Hal ini dipicu tingginya mobilitas masyarakat yang biasanya disertai dengan aktivitas wisata dan belanja, baik selama di perjalanan maupun saat tiba di daerah tujuan. Sehingga menjadi katalisator bagi tingginya peredaran uang dan aktivitas konsumsi masyarakat di masa pergantian tahun.
Kementerian Perhubungan telah memprediksikan, pergerakan masyarakat di seluruh wilayah Indonesia saat momentum libur Nataru yang menggunakan transportasi darat, laut dan udara, bisa mencapai 110,67 juta jiwa. Dan dari jumlah tersebut, sebanyak 5,32% akan melakukan perjalanan selama libur Natal saja. Sedangkan sebanyak 19,13% hanya akan bepergian pada libur tahun baru. Adapun, masyarakat yang akan bepergian pada kedua masa liburan sekitar 18,96%.
Sementara itu, menjelang libur Nataru, Bank Indonesia telah menyiapkan uang tunai sebesar Rp133,7 triliun, guna memenuhi kebutuhan masyarakat dalam penarikan atau penukaran uang tunai. Jumlah ini meningkat dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun lalu, yakni sekitar Rp130 triliun.
Kementerian Perhubungan telah memprediksikan, pergerakan masyarakat di seluruh wilayah Indonesia saat momentum libur Nataru yang menggunakan transportasi darat, laut dan udara, bisa mencapai 110,67 juta jiwa. Dan dari jumlah tersebut, sebanyak 5,32% akan melakukan perjalanan selama libur Natal saja. Sedangkan sebanyak 19,13% hanya akan bepergian pada libur tahun baru. Adapun, masyarakat yang akan bepergian pada kedua masa liburan sekitar 18,96%.
Sementara itu, menjelang libur Nataru, Bank Indonesia telah menyiapkan uang tunai sebesar Rp133,7 triliun, guna memenuhi kebutuhan masyarakat dalam penarikan atau penukaran uang tunai. Jumlah ini meningkat dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun lalu, yakni sekitar Rp130 triliun.
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TVTranscript
00:00Yes, hello viewers, how are you today directly from the IDX channel studio in Jakarta, I am Prasetyo Wibow
00:26Welcome back to the market review program that will solve the issues that are the driving force of the economy in Indonesia
00:32You can also watch our live streaming on IDX channel.com and let's start the market review
00:39Yes, as in previous years, the momentum of Christmas and New Year holidays is expected to be a driving force for economic activities in the region and the nation
00:57This is evidenced by the movement of the community among the regions during the Nataru holiday, which is estimated to reach 110.67 million people
01:10Christmas and New Year holidays are always a momentum in increasing the rotation of the national economy wheels and regions
01:17This is evidenced by the high mobility of the community, which is usually accompanied by tourism and shopping activities, both during the journey and when arriving in the destination area
01:27So it becomes a catalyst for the high circulation of money and consumer activities in the period of the year
01:35The Ministry of Transportation has predicted the movement of the people throughout Indonesia during the Nataru holiday momentum, which uses land, sea, and air transportation, can reach 110.67 million people
01:47And of that number, only 5.32% will travel during the Nataru holiday, while 19.13% will only go in the New Year
01:58There are also people who will go on both holidays around 18.96%
02:04People who will use private vehicles are predicted to reach 59.52 million people or 53.78%
02:11Meanwhile, bus users are predicted to reach 6.54 million people, 3.44 million will use trains, and aircraft users will reach 4.14 million people
02:22Then the use of crossing ships and sea ships each 3.40 million and 2.38 million people
02:30Meanwhile, during the Nataru holiday, the Bank of Indonesia has prepared cash of 133.7 trillion rupiah
02:37to meet the needs of the people in withdrawing or exchanging cash
02:42This amount has increased compared to the same period last year, which is around 130 trillion rupiah
02:47From Jakarta, Idek Channel
02:51NATARU HOLIDAY
02:55Yes, Mr. Mir, to discuss our theme this time, the Nataru holiday, the momentum of the regional economic movement
03:00We are already connected through Zoom with Mr. Solehin, he is the general manager of the Indonesian Retail Manufacturing Association or APRINDO
03:07Yes, hello, how are you, Mr. Solehin?
03:09How are you, Mr. Pras? Are you healthy, Mr. Pras?
03:12Yes, greetings are also healthy, thank you for the opportunity
03:15Mr. Solehin and Mrs. Esther Sriastuti, Executive Director of Indev, have also joined
03:20Hello, Mrs. Esther, how are you?
03:24I am healthy, Mr. Pras, thank you
03:26Thank you also for the opportunity and we will review and also update
03:31Mr. Solehin, what are the conditions and activities of the retail industry during the Nataru holiday this time?
03:39Okay, we consider that every year there are two holidays, the first one is in the month of Ramadan,
03:48there is Eid, and the current one is Nataru
03:52Well, of course, all retailers have prepared far and wide today
03:58about the availability of goods needed at this moment
04:04Yes, not even a little, all the stocks that are available, we have delivered to the retailers
04:13because the needs can be met with existing stocks
04:18even though in DC we are ready from day to day
04:24including we talk to the suppliers
04:28because we know that at a certain time, transportation must be a little hindrance
04:35so we don't want to experience that
04:38far and wide today, we have prepared stocks for the Nataru need
04:43that is the readiness of the retailers at the moment
04:47Okay, it means that you are ready to welcome the long holiday of Nataru this year
04:52which is expected to be a booster for the economic sector and for the retail sector in Indonesia
04:59Well, if we talk about the current condition,
05:02where the Ministry of Transportation mentioned the number of applicants
05:05or those who took a trip during the Nataru holiday this year
05:09is estimated to reach 110.67 million people, up 3.67 million since 2023
05:15How is the impact on the economic activities in the region
05:20and throughout the regions that they have visited during the Nataru holiday?
05:29Thank you, Mr. Bras. Good morning, Mr. Solesin
05:36From the Nataru holiday and this new year, 2024, of course, this will also encourage household consumption
05:47and it means here that if the household consumption rate increases,
05:54it will ultimately encourage economic growth
05:58even though compared to the previous economic growth,
06:02maybe this year it will decrease more
06:07because we know that the purchasing power of the community is not enough
06:12It is proven from May to September,
06:17we know that we have been experiencing deflation for the past five months
06:25Okay, it means that the purchasing power of the community is still limited
06:29during the Nataru activities this year, Ms. Esther?
06:32That's right. So, next year, the community will be prepared
06:41with the increase in the PPN rate from 11% to 12%
06:46So, it's like how to manage the budget, it has to be thought about
06:55If at the end of this year, this will be a holiday, the holiday may also be adjusted to the budget
07:05Okay, this is interesting. So, as far as 110.67 million people who do activities during the Nataru holiday
07:12have an impact related to the retail sector
07:14while there was a decrease in purchasing power that still reflects the activities of the community at Nataru this year
07:20We will discuss later in the next segment, we will discuss for a moment,
07:23Ms. Esther and Mr. Soleh Hinnan Pemirsa, make sure you are still with us
07:44Thank you for still joining us in Market Review
07:47In the next segment, we will provide you with data related to the prediction of the peak of the flow rate
07:52and return as soon as the Nataru holiday this year
07:54Yes, you can see the complete data on the television screen where the peak of the flow rate is
07:58The prediction is on December 24, 2024 and December 31, 2024
08:05Then, the peak of the return flow rate is in Rabu, January 1, 2025 and Thursday, January 2, 2025
08:14Next, we will see the preparation of the pre-suggestions and transportation suggestions for the Nataru holiday this year
08:18Here are various modes of land transportation that have been prepared
08:23specifically from the Ministry of Transportation
08:25There are 32,000 bus units, 113 terminals, and 2,600 trains
08:32And next, for sea transportation, as you can see, there are 764 sea ships
08:38There are 110 sea ports and 159 crossing ships
08:44Next, for air transportation, there are 417 aircraft units and 56 airports
08:50Next, we will discuss the consumer confidence index data from the Bank of Indonesia
08:55From August to November, the movement tends to increase
08:58In October, it was 121.1 and in November, it increased to 125.9
09:04We will continue the discussion with Mr. Solehin, the Chairperson of Perindo
09:08and Mrs. Esther Sirasuti, the Executive Director of Indes
09:11Okay, we will continue again
09:13Mr. Solehin, we will discuss
09:15Well, it has been said that the activity and movement of the community
09:19which reached 110.67 million people
09:22is expected to be a driving force for the economy nationally and in the regions
09:29For the retail sector itself, does it have a significant impact
09:34on the weakening of the purchasing power of the people who imagine it?
09:40Okay, this is like what Mrs. Esther said
09:46related to the purchasing power of consumers at the moment
09:50But for the holiday cases, this is extraordinary
09:55We can see that the number of people in Mudik
09:59who travel with their families
10:01increased from 3.67%
10:06from 117 million people in 2023
10:10and now it has increased to 110.67 million people in 2024
10:16It was also mentioned by Mrs. Pras
10:18which is the consumer confidence index
10:21If I note in November, it reached 125.9%
10:30It means that we also have to know that the sale of products
10:34is based on the needs of the holiday
10:38which in this case, we know
10:41the holiday becomes a moment
10:44for us to prepare the necessities
10:49So even though, as Mrs. Esther said, I do not agree with the condition
10:54even next year, we also have to understand the psychological factor
10:59once again, the psychological factor
11:01regarding the psychological increase in PPN
11:04even though we are still waiting for the implementation guidelines
11:07from the categories that are included in the PPN increase
11:12I agree with Mrs. Esther
11:13The holiday becomes a moment for us to achieve
11:17the increase in sales
11:20because after this, there is no more
11:22next year, we will start again
11:24especially during Eid or fasting
11:26it is not far from around March-April
11:30we have prepared
11:31On that note, I miss this
11:35not long ago, Alhamdulillah
11:38we launched the EPICS program
11:40which is only 11 days
11:42that is, every purchase is cheap
11:44and Alhamdulillah, we were inaugurated by Mr. Menko
11:48Mr. Mendak, together with Mr. Nas
11:50a week ago, on the 22nd
11:54we launched
11:56and we hope, at least
11:58at least, once again
12:00from what we have achieved
12:02counting from the 22nd to the 31st, more or less 11 days
12:06minimum, we can increase the sales by 8%
12:10than before
12:12even though at the end of this year
12:14our sales should be better than the previous months
12:18except during Ramadan and Eid
12:23that's it, Mr. Pras
12:25and how big is the potential of money circulation in this area, Mrs. Esther
12:30if we look at this year's Nataru holiday
12:32there are some special programs that have been prepared
12:36retail friends to welcome this Nataru holiday
12:39with an expectation of an increase of 8%
12:41you said earlier
12:42there are some weaknesses of the people's purchasing power
12:45but on the other hand, the data from the consumer confidence index has also increased
12:49here, Mrs. Esther
12:51yes, thank you, Mr. Pras
12:54yes, this is interesting
12:56if we look at the mobility of the people in this area
13:03the increase is also extraordinary
13:07but if I compare it to last year
13:11I see a decrease
13:17but yesterday I had a vacation in Jogja for a while
13:25the traffic was also extraordinary
13:28and in that area
13:33people go to malls, shopping malls
13:38they do enjoy the holiday
13:41but maybe later if you look at the volume of trading
13:49it's just things that maybe the price is cheaper
13:58or after the discount, that's what's served a lot
14:01on the other hand, the destination is also crowded
14:06so I said that with this Nataru holiday
14:11the household consumption will definitely increase
14:15and finally this will also drive economic growth
14:20but the signal compared to last year
14:25maybe this is a little down
14:28but the Bank of Indonesia has increased the circulating money stocks in the community
14:33for this holiday season
14:35is the demand also high right now
14:38even though there are words, there is a little resistance there
14:42is it consumption or just for storage?
14:45Esther
14:47if the card money or money in a bag or in a coin
14:58there is an increase
15:01because it's like a holiday
15:05they also share the allowance
15:08the end of the year is also like a bonus
15:11but shopping is not just about giving cash
15:21but we also see that it is more like shopping with cashless
15:30because in some malls there are also cashless
15:35they don't accept cash
15:38that's it, Mr. Kras
15:40with this condition, Mr. Soelohin
15:42then you have delivered when there is an expectation of 8%
15:47what kind of retail products are you most interested in?
15:50then are there any areas that may already have data owned by Aplido
15:56when it has started to experience an increase in the sales of retail products
16:01as long as Nataru is now
16:03even though there will be a return season in early January
16:08Well, Mr. Kras, yes, it was already mentioned
16:12Indonesia has prepared funds of more than Rp100 trillion
16:17in this year, I see the data for Nataru
16:21the product that is most interested in this condition is clear
16:26food and drinks dominate
16:30and it has been said that the movement of people to enjoy the holiday
16:38and the roads through the rest area, etc.
16:43it is certainly fulfilled by our friends and brothers who want to go home or celebrate in the area
16:51Well, the use is still there and the accessories are still dominant
16:57but not higher than food and drinks
17:00so is the electronics
17:03gadgets are still increasing
17:07because usually New Year is also a quotation mark
17:11there is a joy if the gadget is new, etc.
17:14outside that, we know that Christmas and New Year
17:19we must see everywhere on the road, especially in certain houses
17:23Christmas and New Year decorations are dominant
17:26like that, meaning the potential for sales to increase
17:31in this regard, I can assure you that it will definitely increase
17:34but is it in accordance with our estimates?
17:37that's what we're still in the process
17:41so, Mr. Kras
17:43Yes, and does APRINDO also cooperate with local governments
17:47with locations that will become a hub for the public
17:50like a tourist destination
17:51but hold on to the answer, Mr. Solin, we will discuss it later in the next segment
17:54and viewers, we will be right back after the next discussion
18:15Thank you for still joining us in the next market review
18:19and we will continue the discussion with Ibu Esther Sidastuti
18:23Executive Director of INEF and Mr. Solin, APRINDO Chairman
18:26Mr. Solin, how about the cooperation that has been carried out so far
18:31with the local government?
18:33Remember, there will be a lot of tourist locations
18:35that will become a place or a hub for the public
18:38as well as an opportunity for the retail sector, of course
18:42In this Nataru, the government through Menko Ekwin, Menga and Mr. Nas
18:52as I mentioned earlier
18:53has been cooperating and monitored from day to day
18:58related to the program
19:00One of the organizations or associations
19:03using the program name
19:05can be shopping here
19:07shopping centers, etc.
19:09It is also combined with the policies of the airlines
19:16by providing discounts, etc.
19:18so that the Indonesian people can shop in Indonesia
19:21Secondly, we have an EPICS program
19:25which is supervised by Menko Ekwin
19:29with the objective of increasing sales
19:34which is expected to be more than 5% in December
19:38so that we can cover the average economic growth
19:43at least 5%
19:45This is an effort to collaborate with the central government
19:49and spread to the whole region
19:51What is the proof?
19:53We have received a grant from the local government
19:57for posters, etc.
19:59We have been exempted from taxes for a certain period of time
20:02This means that this is due to the support of the local government
20:05Now, what has been discussed earlier
20:07the impact of the consumer confidence index on purchasing power
20:10we know
20:11has increased from 121.1 in October
20:16to 12.59 in November
20:18This shows the public's optimism in sales
20:23In the middle, Mr. Esther said that
20:27I am sure, yes
20:28because the shift in the public purchasing pattern
20:31now because of the different conditions
20:34In the past, the loyalty of the public or the consumer
20:38to a brand
20:40it became something that could not be offered
20:43but this time, at the moment
20:46or I don't know in the future
20:47it's a little different
20:49even though it's in a certain segment
20:52So, if it's a segment that's a little bit
20:56let's say, hoping for a product
21:00if possible, find a cheap one
21:02If that's the case, loyalty to a brand
21:06if not this product, I won't use it
21:08Now it's starting to shift a little
21:10because the demand from the public
21:13has asked for a cheap price
21:16among the products I need
21:17Like that
21:18Okay
21:19And Mrs. Esther, how far do you see
21:22the movement of people who are quite a lot
21:24at the time of the Nataru holiday
21:25can really be optimal
21:27can be a booster
21:29for the economic activity in the region?
21:33Yes, in my opinion
21:35with this mobility
21:38usually to shopping centers
21:41and tourist destinations
21:44For areas that have a lot of tourist destinations
21:50it is usually the one that is sought
21:54What strategy should be improved
21:56so that the momentum of the Nataru holiday
21:58can finally be optimal
22:00both for the local government
22:01in terms of income
22:02then the business world
22:04especially the retail sector
22:05and the community can also get
22:07a competitive price
22:08without taking advantage of the momentum
22:10because the demand is also high
22:14Mrs. Esther
22:15In my opinion, the local government
22:18in this matter must prepare
22:21how to arrange public facilities
22:24Okay
22:25For example, in front of traffic jams
22:28then the rest areas are also guaranteed
22:32cleanliness, convenience
22:35so that when they want to do this
22:38or the community that is in front of traffic jams
22:42we can enjoy it
22:44thousands of hours
22:46everything is better
22:48Okay
22:49Mr. Solehin
22:50So how far can this momentum
22:53really be expected
22:55to be the driver of the retail sector
22:56but the price?
22:58This is interesting
22:58Is the price still stable, sir?
23:00Or how?
23:01Sometimes there are people who like to take advantage of the momentum
23:03in one area or area
23:04then the price is increased
23:06or how?
23:08First, if we talk about Aprindo
23:10with its members
23:11it is always committed to the price
23:14it is not allowed at a certain time
23:17the price is playing around
23:19Aprindo, I make sure the members
23:21are always disciplined about it
23:23We know that more than 59 million vehicles
23:28are used by Indonesian people
23:30for this Nataru holiday
23:33I agree
23:36traffic jams and so on
23:38we see hopefully
23:39I haven't seen what it's like
23:41if it's in the rest area
23:42it's hard to get in
23:43because there are so many
23:45Automatically, those who use vehicles
23:50and they reside in the rest area
23:52must need something
23:54in this need
23:55we have to meet
23:56even a little bit
23:58not a little bit
23:59the retailers
24:00who use the means
24:02to support the stock
24:05in the stalls in the rest area
24:07So, what is the framework?
24:09In the framework, we don't want
24:11the consumer to be disappointed
24:13because the need for goods
24:15at that time is much higher
24:17than the previous months
24:20and we can also estimate
24:23what goods are needed
24:25based on this experience
24:27I'm sure the increase in sales
24:31in Nataru can be achieved
24:34especially the programs
24:36that are done specifically by Indonesian APRIN
24:38are strongly supported by the government
24:40and the ministries
24:42from the economy, trade
24:44and the head of BAPANAS
24:46like that
24:46Okay, Mr. Solin
24:48and hopefully the target of 8% growth
24:51for the discount program
24:54or various policies
24:56that have been done
24:57to be able to increase
24:59the sales of retail products
25:01in the Nataru season this year
25:03Thank you very much, Mr. Esther
25:04for your presence
25:05and analysis
25:06Mr. Solin, thank you for the update
25:08that you have also given
25:09to the audience today
25:11Congratulations on your activity
25:12and good health
25:13Thank you, see you again
25:15and Mr. Solin, thank you
25:16Thank you
25:18Welcome
25:19Good health
25:20Good health
25:21Thank you
25:22Okay, and the audience
25:23don't hesitate to contact you
25:24because we will be back
25:26with other interesting themes
25:27related to the profit and loss
25:29of nickel production restrictions
25:31in 2025