"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Market Buzz, Selasa (24/12/2024) dengan Tema Analisis Saham Pilihan: BBCA, BBRI, BRPT, TLKM"
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00:00Thank you, Mr. Sada, for joining us again on MarketBuzz.
00:07We will now take a look at the list of stocks recommended by Mr. Gembong Suwito,
00:12Director of Education and Investments in Stocks.
00:15Among them, Mr. Sada's BPCA stock is recommended by the area of Rp 9,650 to Rp 9,700
00:22with the target price at Rp 10,400 and the top loss at Rp 9,550.
00:28The data shown here are the stop loss and target price.
00:34Then, BBRI Buy at Rp 4,100 to Rp 4,150 with the target price at Rp 4,500 and the top loss at Rp 4,000.
00:42BRPT Buy at Rp 850 to Rp 860 with the target price at Rp 1,000 and the top loss at Rp 820.
00:49Telkom Buy at Rp 2,600 to Rp 2,620 with the target price at Rp 3,000 and the top loss at Rp 2,550.
00:57BBRI Buy at Rp 2,600 to Rp 3,000 with the target price at Rp 2,500 and the top loss at Rp 3,000.
01:05Back to BCAPS Banking, Mr. Gembong,
01:07you said that the foreigners are not quite ready to come back.
01:11Why?
01:12A lot of people see that BCAPS has not yet shown signs of buying.
01:17Why are you so optimistic about BCAPS Banking?
01:20Yes, if we talk historically,
01:25right now there is capital outflow in America.
01:29Why?
01:30Because America is very attractive.
01:32USD is getting stronger.
01:33Samsung in America is also getting stronger.
01:36Why?
01:37Because Trump is elected, he is politically protective,
01:41so make America great again will happen.
01:44Trade war will not happen.
01:45So far, I think our capital outflow is already maximum.
01:50And that is a sign of rebound.
01:53It is very possible.
01:55One, if we talk about the fundamentals,
01:58from the BCA itself,
02:00with the performance until October,
02:03there has been a profit of around Rp 50 trillion.
02:05So, in the next year,
02:08especially in the annual report,
02:10in January, February, February,
02:12the performance is usually above 10%.
02:15The increase in FPS.
02:18This is a positive sentiment.
02:20That's the first from the BCA and from the BNB.
02:24Okay. Do you recommend...
02:25BNB and Interim are already there.
02:27So, the positive catalysts are the supporters.
02:30Then, if we talk about foreign investors,
02:35there is only one problem.
02:37Rupiah exchange rate.
02:38Rupiah exchange rate is at the level of Rp 16,200.
02:41They bring it to Indonesia in the form of dollars.
02:43As soon as they enter,
02:45they will automatically pay attention to the exchange rate.
02:48Our biggest challenge is the exchange rate.
02:50Hopefully, here, usually,
02:52BI is at the level of Rp 16,200.
02:56Rp 16,400 has already intervened.
02:58Thank goodness, under Rp 15,000.
03:00That's our hope,
03:02so that capital inflow happens.
03:05Even if, for example,
03:06this has started capital inflow
03:09since September, October, November, December.
03:11So, three months.
03:12It should be,
03:13when doing rebalancing at the beginning of the year,
03:15the energy should be quite positive too.
03:17Okay.
03:19BBCA, current price Rp 9,775.
03:23So, buy on weakness, yes?
03:25Rp 9,650 to Rp 9,700.
03:27Yes, that's right.
03:29Okay. Wait a minute.
03:30Be patient.
03:31The target price is at the closest,
03:33Rp 10,400.
03:36Stop loss at Rp 9,550.
03:38If below Rp 9,550,
03:40there is a chance to continue weakening first, right?
03:42That's right.
03:43Okay.
03:44BBRI,
03:45buy at Rp 4,100 to Rp 4,150,
03:48Mr. Gembong said.
03:50Yes.
03:51If we talk about the valuation,
03:52BBRI is already very undervalued.
03:54Very undervalued.
03:55Since Rp 6,400,
03:58the highest range there,
04:00has dropped by about 30%.
04:02And this is an anomaly.
04:03And indeed,
04:04among the big cap,
04:06banks, BBRI,
04:07are very affected
04:09by various negative sentiment issues
04:12in 2024.
04:14Especially among the MSMEs.
04:17Daya Beli,
04:18MSMEs,
04:19NPL,
04:20Pinjol, etc.
04:21All of them are identical
04:22to the dual-functions related to BBRI.
04:24That's one.
04:25That's what makes the capital outflow in BBRI quite sharp.
04:28And now,
04:30if we talk about valuation,
04:31various models,
04:33BBRI should be at the level of Rp 5,000 to Rp 5,200.
04:36So this is very undervalued.
04:37In terms of performance,
04:38BBRI will also record positive performance
04:41even though it's thin.
04:43Single digit.
04:44In terms of EPS,
04:45the profitability increase,
04:47but at Rp 60 trillion.
04:49So,
04:50if for example,
04:51now, from September to December,
04:53there's an outflow.
04:54Today and yesterday,
04:56there are already signs of inflow.
04:58Today is the cum date.
05:00The cum date of BBRI is Rp 135
05:05for the dividend interim.
05:07Later,
05:08in February,
05:09it will rise again.
05:10So this is a positive catalyst.
05:11Even if it goes down,
05:13under Rp 4,000,
05:15it's already a maximum limit.
05:16Rp 4,000.
05:18It will bounce back at the beginning of the year
05:20until later in February.
05:22So the key is in the big bank
05:24until January, February,
05:27the story should be positive
05:29until financial reports and dividends appear.
05:31Because there is a cum date,
05:32there is an opportunity to go down first,
05:33so it's better
05:34to wait in the maximum range,
05:37in the position of Rp 4,000.
05:38Yes.
05:39Okay, there's a target at Rp 4,500.
05:41BRPT?
05:42BRPT.
05:43When BRPT,
05:44this is one of the supporter groups,
05:46and it's enough,
05:48if we talk about 2024,
05:51the agglomeration from the BRPT side,
05:54BRPT, TPIA, Cuan, PTRO,
05:57the most undervalued is BRPT.
05:59It should reach the Rp 1,000 level,
06:01it's very possible.
06:03It means because it's still undervalued,
06:05so you see the opportunity to increase
06:07is more open or bigger in BRPT.
06:11The others have increased quite maximally,
06:13or quite significantly.
06:15Okay, Baila is in the range of Rp 850 to Rp 860.
06:19Why is it in those areas, Mr. Gembong?
06:21Because the strong support is at the level of Rp 800.
06:24So far, the last six months,
06:26it's like the other groups,
06:29the sentiment of the group,
06:31the sentiment of the other groups is very positive,
06:33this is quite left behind.
06:35So from the perspective of the sentiment market,
06:38this is also a potential,
06:40it's late, but there will be an increase.
06:43The risk limit if it drops below Rp 820, right?
06:46Yes.
06:47Okay, next there is Telkom,
06:48both in the area of Rp 2,600 to Rp 2,620.
06:51Why did Telkom enter your recommendation?
06:54Yes, it's very undervalued on the Telkom side,
06:57because if we talk about the blue chip this year,
07:00it's weak, alias Ambeer.
07:02So blue chip foundations,
07:05such as Big Cap, Astra, Telkom,
07:08all of them are underperformed this year.
07:11Although fundamentally good,
07:13underperformed, outflow,
07:15which is capital outflow.
07:17At level Rp 2,500 yesterday,
07:20the strong support did not break through,
07:22now it's technically bound,
07:24and it should be in terms of valuation,
07:26this is quite attractive.
07:27On average at level Rp 3,500,
07:29now Rp 2,600,
07:30so the upside is quite strong,
07:32at least at level Rp 3,000.
07:34What is the driving factor, Mr. Gempong?
07:36From a technical point of view,
07:37you have said that it is undervalued,
07:39but from a fundamental point of view,
07:41how?
07:42Especially in the middle,
07:43there is news that XCL finally collaborated with SmartFan.
07:48Correct.
07:49So if we talk about telecommunications,
07:53the telecommunications sector,
07:55Telkom is one of the strongest fundamentals.
07:59There is only one problem,
08:01our blue chip is fundamentally good,
08:05but capital outflow,
08:07that's the problem.
08:08This capital outflow,
08:10so far,
08:11it has begun to decrease.
08:13The problem is that it is constantly being sold.
08:14It's been 3-4 months of sales.
08:17So this is in terms of calendar,
08:22usually they are okay.
08:23At the beginning of the year,
08:24they will definitely do rebalancing.
08:27At the beginning of January, February,
08:30it is quite attractive to enter the market.
08:33Why?
08:34Because in other sectors,
08:36especially on the American side,
08:37it is already overvalued.
08:39Already very high.
08:41Here is the momentum,
08:42but the problem is only one,
08:43our Rupiah course.
08:45If it is under Rp 16,000,
08:47it is attractive to enter the blue chip.
08:50So January, February,
08:51in our opinion,
08:52it is very positive.
08:54If the course is Rp 16,000,
08:56under Rp 16,000,
08:58pay intervention,
08:59that's where this momentum is.
09:01In all blue chips.
09:02Okay.
09:03That's it.
09:04Recommendations.
09:05Greetings.
09:06There are BBCA, BBRI, BRPT,
09:07and there is also Telkom.
09:08We look at the opening of trading,
09:10on the last day of Christmas holiday trading.
09:14There is a movement from the index,
09:17of course,
09:18weakening 0.04%.
09:20Yesterday, the market experienced
09:22quite high strength.
09:28We see yesterday,
09:29the strength is not too significant.
09:33And we see this morning,
09:35it went up Rp 7,097.
09:39It was red,
09:40still moving wildly,
09:41between red and green.
09:43With Samsung becoming a top gainer,
09:45you can see the full picture on the TV screen.
09:47Recommendations.
09:49Among others,
09:50Telkom shares are recommended
09:52by Pak Gembong,
09:53up 1.5%.
09:54Cuan, 3%.
09:55BRPT,
09:56which is also recommended
09:57by Pak Gembong,
09:58up 5%.
09:59PTRO, 2%.
10:00Raja, 4%.
10:01And several other shares.
10:04ADI fell 3.29%,
10:06leading losers based on value,
10:08INPC, GOTU,
10:09Da'as, Film, Kija,
10:10and several other shares.
10:12Meanwhile,
10:13the sectoral movement
10:14is more dominated by weak sectors.
10:16Infrastructure leads
10:18in energy,
10:19health,
10:20finance,
10:21and property.
10:22It seems that the infrastructure
10:24is dominated by Telkom,
10:25which is a gainer based on value.
10:27Briefly,
10:28Pak Gembong's statement
10:29after the stock price went up,
10:31we saw Telkom,
10:32BRPT also went up.
10:33What's your strategy
10:34if you haven't followed
10:35Pak Gembong's direction?
10:38Okay.
10:39In December,
10:40there are three days left.
10:41After that,
10:42there will be a new year,
10:432025,
10:44and in 2025,
10:46we will see the key
10:48in January and February.
10:50How fast will the market respond?
10:53Positively,
10:552025 will be a challenge.
10:58Why?
10:59Because we are talking about
11:01the rising price,
11:03which will be protective.
11:06It's like a trade war is about to start.
11:08Secondly,
11:09from the Bungek tribe,
11:11yesterday,
11:12the Fed
11:13has been indicative
11:15at least twice,
11:16and this position is not liked by the market
11:18because the market wants more cut rates.
11:21So, what should be done, Pak Gembong?
11:23Focus on fundamentally good stocks,
11:26good liquidity,
11:27and there is a growth in profit.
11:29Okay.
11:30Telkom has gone up, right?
11:32Still.
11:33Underweight.
11:34We are talking about
11:36the target is still quite far,
11:3810-20% should still be available.
11:41Pak Gembong, what is the target at the end of the year?
11:43Is there an optimistic one?
11:447,200.
11:457,200.
11:46Because the market is still
11:50at the highest level.
11:56Yesterday, it was 6,933.
11:58It should be very low this year.
12:01Okay, it should be very low.
12:03Okay, Pak Gembong, thank you
12:04for sharing the information this morning.
12:06Have a good holiday, Pak Gembong.
12:08See you again.