For the second episode in our two-part 2025 preview, Nilay and David are once again joined by Wall Street Journal columnist (and friend of The Verge) Joanna Stern to talk about what will, and won't, happen in tech next year. This time, David joins us after a quick jaunt to the end of next year, and relays a bunch of things that happened in tech in 2025. But some of them are lies. Joanna and Nilay have to decide which things really will happen next year, and which won't. As always, the hosts get points for good guesses and negative points for bad ones. And once we're all in late 2025, we'll declare a winner.
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TechTranscript
00:00Welcome to the Verge cast, the flagship podcast of Low Stakes Time Travel.
00:06I'm your friend, David Pierce, and I am sitting here doing my New Year's resolutions.
00:09I discovered a long time ago that if I do my New Year's resolutions like on December
00:1329th or more likely like January 17th, they don't actually get done or I'm just tired.
00:20And so my ambitions are like, go outside once this year.
00:24And so my goal now is to find a day, usually in December, where I'm more present, more
00:30active, feeling better, feeling more ambitious.
00:32And that's when I do some real goal setting.
00:35And I try to think of it like goal setting, not resolutions.
00:38I've also learned that I should make them very small and very actionable.
00:41So like a couple of years ago, my goal was to read one page of a book every single day,
00:46just as a way to kickstart some of that energy again.
00:49And it was such a small thing that I would feel guilty not doing it.
00:52So I actually did it every day that year because it's only one page.
00:56But the idea is when you read one page, you read more than one page.
00:59And then all of a sudden, you're reading a lot more in a way that feels less sort of
01:04over your head than the idea of like, I'm going to read 50 books this year.
01:07And I read more than 50 books that year.
01:09Perfect strategy.
01:10Absolutely.
01:11No notes.
01:12Anyway, I will share my tech resolutions at some point, by the way.
01:15I've done that before, and people have said they like it, just having some ideas about
01:19how I want to use tech better next year.
01:22So I'll share those, but that's for another episode.
01:24So I've got to figure some of those out.
01:26Use my phone less didn't work.
01:28So we're going to try some new things.
01:30Today we're doing the second episode in our series previewing 2025.
01:34Like we said last week, 2025 is going to be a big year.
01:38There's regulation stuff happening.
01:39There's a new administration coming in in the US.
01:42There's questions about the Fediverse.
01:43There's questions about AI.
01:45Is all of this going to amount to like the next big thing in technology or not?
01:50I think 2025 is going to be the year that either things change or they don't.
01:55And we're going to find out in some really interesting ways with pretty high stakes.
01:59Last week, I had Nilay Patel and Joanna Stern on, and they just ran through some predictions.
02:04We had mild, medium, and spicy predictions.
02:07We talked about them all.
02:08We agreed or disagreed.
02:09It was a lot of fun.
02:10I think I figured out the points system.
02:13We'll lay that out at some point.
02:14We got 12 months to figure it out.
02:15We'll come back to it.
02:17For this episode, we're going to do something slightly different.
02:20I asked all of you to give me basically things that either will or won't happen in 2025.
02:26We will land on Mars.
02:27Don't know yet.
02:28By the end of 2025, we'll know the answer.
02:30Will there be a new CEO of Google?
02:33Don't know.
02:34We'll know by the end of 2025.
02:36These things that are either going to happen or not going to happen, I made a big list
02:39of them, and I'm going to throw them at Nilay and Joanna, and we're going to see what we
02:43think about all of them.
02:45Again, this goes on the same point scoring system.
02:48If you're right by the end of 2025, you get a point.
02:52Wrong, no points.
02:54Whoever gets the most points gets a prize.
02:56We as a group are going to decide the prize together, so we'll figure that out later on
03:00in the year.
03:01But the idea is just, if I'm a time traveler from the end of 2025 coming back and I have
03:06some things to say to you, some of them are true and some of them are false, what are
03:09we going to do?
03:11It was very fun.
03:12We had a very good time, and I think you will enjoy this.
03:15We agreed more than I wanted to, but we'll make it work.
03:18Anyway, all of that is coming up in just a second, but first I'm going to go read one
03:22page of a book because I am now like three years into this resolution and it continues
03:27to work really well, and I'm not losing it today.
03:29This is The Verge Cast.
03:31Support for The Verge Cast comes from Polestar.
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04:01Experience it for yourself at your local Polestar space.
04:04Book a test drive at Polestar.com.
04:10Welcome back.
04:11Neal Epiteles here.
04:12Again.
04:13Once again, David has dragged me into the studio.
04:16If you're all wondering why we're wearing the same clothes and don't look like we've
04:19moved.
04:20We did.
04:21It's been a full week since we recorded this.
04:22Don't worry about it.
04:23Joanna Stern's also here.
04:24Hi, Joanna.
04:25I wear this every day.
04:26Yeah.
04:27This is my podcasting sweater.
04:28I've moved to just basically wearing, like I have the same shirt five times.
04:29You're Steve Jobs now.
04:30I am.
04:31I really, I have done that.
04:32It's like a closet full of Issey Miyake.
04:33Truly the older I get, the more I understand that approach to life.
04:35Legitimately, I have three of these shirts.
04:37Yeah.
04:38You're going to break out the Obama tan suit, full Fox News cycle.
04:43Okay.
04:45So last week we did our predictions for 2025.
04:48We all had homework.
04:50We all talked it through.
04:51We still haven't figured out the point system, but I have a whole year to figure out the
04:54point system.
04:55I'm probably going to win, but we'll see what we're going to do today is I have written
04:58down a long list of things that either will or will not happen in 2025.
05:05The way we're going to set this up is I am a time traveler from the end of 2025 and I'm
05:10coming back and I'm telling you a bunch of things that happened and you have to decide
05:14which ones are true and which ones are lies.
05:16Does that make sense?
05:18All lies.
05:19Fabulous.
05:20Why are all these games so complicated?
05:21It's not complicated.
05:22I'm going to say a thing that happened by the end of 2025 and you have to decide, did
05:27it or did it not happen?
05:29Good?
05:30You should have done a costume change.
05:32I do.
05:33I should have, honestly.
05:34I should have been like, I am dressed.
05:35I'm coming back from, I am David from the end of 2025.
05:40Like jeans get even bigger in 2025, so I'm going to come back.
05:44You have a mustache.
05:45Anyway.
05:46A beret.
05:47This is what AI is for.
05:48Berets are huge in 2025.
05:49When this actually publishes, will we replace David with AI mustache?
05:5470s David will be here in full flares.
05:58The only facial hair I can grow is like a pretty evil goatee, so we could do that.
06:02Evil David could be at the end of 2025.
06:04I don't think you have a choice, but to grow an evil goatee that way.
06:09Okay.
06:10I've ordered these loosely into categories, but the categories don't really matter.
06:15So we're just going to blow through as many of these as we can until we have to get out
06:17of here.
06:18And again, the thing we all have to decide individually is, is this true by the end of
06:232025 or is it not?
06:26Thing number one, not only is Tim Cook still the CEO of Apple, all four big tech CEOs are
06:30still the same.
06:32Oh, absolutely true.
06:34Unless Google breaks itself up.
06:36Okay.
06:37But then would Sundar Pichai still be the CEO of Google in that instance?
06:41That's the one where I have a question mark.
06:44I think right now, the only thing that the big tech companies can do is put familiar
06:50faces in front of Donald Trump and anything that disturbs that is a huge risk.
06:55Donald Trump saying Sundar Pichai called me to say I was the most important thing on Google
06:59is the thing that protects Google from regulatory risk.
07:02You change out that face, that name, that relationship.
07:06Suddenly Donald's like, I don't like this new guy.
07:08And all goes to hell.
07:09Yeah.
07:10I mean, definitely.
07:11There's.
07:12Yeah.
07:13True.
07:14But you don't think it's possible that one of these CEOs will just decide it's not worth
07:17it anymore?
07:18That like faced with the prospect of what's coming in so many different directions, they're
07:23not just going to be like, eh.
07:24I think they want to, but they're bored to what Neal is saying.
07:28These guys are all sharks.
07:30They think they can win.
07:32That's fair.
07:33This is not this is no longer a game about strategy.
07:35It's a game about personality and dealmaking.
07:38And yeah, I think Tim Cook's getting ready.
07:41He's like excited about it.
07:44I think Tim Cook's excited to retire.
07:45Oh, yeah.
07:46He's been laying the groundwork to retire for a long time.
07:48He's excited.
07:49This is why John Ternus's name keeps getting floated.
07:51Right.
07:52But he cannot.
07:53Apple is a small country.
07:55No.
07:56Tim Cook is sad.
07:58I don't know this.
07:59I think Tim Cook is sad.
08:01I would say we published the story about Donald Trump saying Tim Cook had called about European
08:07regulations and the number of comments and responses we got that was like he would never.
08:12This is just salacious slander.
08:13I'm like, no, he definitely did.
08:14Yeah.
08:15This man opened a fake factory for Donald Trump.
08:19He is good at this game, but if you don't know that, he reopened the Mac Pro factory
08:24where they were already making the Mac Pro and Trump got to go there and pretend they'd
08:28open a factory.
08:29But as long as you cut a ribbon, it's new, you know what I mean?
08:32Yeah.
08:33It counts.
08:34All right.
08:35So we're all we're all saying yes.
08:36By the way, Corollary, do we think Donald Trump knows who Andy Jassy is?
08:39No.
08:40The CEO of Amazon.
08:41I think he knows who Jeff Bezos is.
08:44Yeah.
08:45Yeah.
08:46Right.
08:47No.
08:48And I think the fact this is what this is.
08:49I think Andy Jassy's favorite thing in the whole world is probably that everybody knows
08:50who Jeff Bezos is.
08:52But people are people are very mad at Jeff Bezos about things that Jeff Bezos is no longer
08:58in control of.
08:59And I think if you're Andy Jassy, that's a pretty nice place to be.
09:02Yeah.
09:03I'm just saying we are entering a period where people's personal relationships with the president
09:09will determine how American tech regulation goes.
09:11And none of these guys can move.
09:14Introducing a new face is.
09:16And also Mark Zuckerberg is unkillable.
09:17So he doesn't.
09:18Oh, he's by far the most stable.
09:21He's in.
09:22He's the founder CEO.
09:23He's staying forever.
09:24OK.
09:25All right.
09:26Moving on.
09:27We're all saying yes.
09:28End of 2025.
09:29NVIDIA is the most valuable company in the world.
09:30No.
09:31OK.
09:32What is more valuable?
09:33Right now, it's Apple and Microsoft every day.
09:34Go back and forth.
09:35Right.
09:36Yeah.
09:37NVIDIA is right there.
09:38Yeah.
09:39I just think that my prediction on the last episode was the AI bubble is going to pop.
09:40Right.
09:41And so if that necessarily means demand for chips will drop.
09:42OK.
09:43I'm saying yes.
09:44Because NVIDIA seems to be so far ahead of this game right now.
09:56And even if what you're saying is true, there's going to be some lag to that, like, I think
10:03if the AI bubble does burst, I don't think it's going to happen in 2025.
10:06And I think we're going to get one more year of wild frothiness and then something is going
10:12to happen.
10:13are going to keep buying these Blackwell chips.
10:16It's going to just keep happening.
10:17Yeah, maybe it.
10:19But all of that forward investment has to turn into revenue.
10:23Not for NVIDIA.
10:24Yeah, NVIDIA is good.
10:25NVIDIA, they're selling them.
10:27Yeah, right.
10:28But then at some point when the company stopped booking.
10:31Sure, but maybe it doesn't happen in 2026.
10:33Let me tell you, at some point when the companies don't have business models
10:36to run on their NVIDIA chips, NVIDIA will stop selling as many chips.
10:40But that's coming faster.
10:42You think it's going to happen in 2025?
10:45Yeah, right now there are companies.
10:46But all these companies are promising their AI agents, and they're all in next year.
10:51Right, and then they have to ship them.
10:55Sure, and then.
10:55I mean, there are companies right now, like cloud computing companies,
10:58that are taking out loans to buy NVIDIA chips,
11:00and the collateral they're putting in for their loans is the NVIDIA chips.
11:06That's bananas.
11:07That is the bubbliest bubble you could possibly describe.
11:10We might have time.
11:12I'm serious.
11:12Okay, but yeah.
11:13But I think if the straight prediction is the stock.
11:17Right, that's what I'm measuring.
11:18It's going to happen at the end, yes.
11:21I'm out.
11:22Okay.
11:22I don't think so.
11:23Are you in?
11:23I'll be in.
11:24I'm in too.
11:27End of 2025, somebody has acquired Snap.
11:31That's good.
11:34Who?
11:36Somebody.
11:37I can't tell you.
11:37I forgot.
11:38I have a lot to remember coming back from December 2025.
11:41Is it Apple?
11:43No, it's not Apple.
11:45I don't think it would be Apple.
11:46No, Apple doesn't want it, but I think it's.
11:49Maybe it's Walmart again.
11:50Walmart?
11:51Walmart buys TikTok and Snap.
11:53Yeah.
11:54No.
11:55Just because it's a public company.
11:58It's just hard to do.
11:59It's got to fail on its own.
12:00Activist Investor shows up and tries to push out Evan Spiegel.
12:05Sure.
12:05Okay.
12:06A straightforward GE is here to buy Snapchat.
12:11I don't think so.
12:11Yeah.
12:12I think I lean the same way just because I don't know where it goes.
12:15I don't know where it goes.
12:16Yeah.
12:16Because I think Snap's problem continues to be that it is a phenomenally successful product
12:22that is essentially impossible to turn into a business.
12:24And I don't think anybody else has ways to solve that.
12:27And I don't know who would want it.
12:29Like, maybe it's one of the big advert.
12:31Like, maybe Amazon buys it just because it's like, we're better at selling ads.
12:34We can do that.
12:34But I don't totally see it.
12:37So, all right.
12:37I'm out on that one.
12:38We're all out on that one.
12:40Yep.
12:40Okay.
12:41Number four, OpenAI is officially a for-profit company, and it's making money.
12:48Those should be two separate things.
12:49Making money or making a profit.
12:53Well, yeah.
12:54All right.
12:54You're right.
12:55Let's split them.
12:55OpenAI is officially a for-profit company.
12:58I would say yes.
13:02Making a profit, I would say no.
13:04This is hard for Nilay.
13:06I think that's a harder, longer fight than anybody thinks.
13:14But can they pull it off in a year?
13:17A year is both a long time and not a long time.
13:20I mean, like, this lawsuit with Elon Musk is going to keep getting messier.
13:25He just, he's going to paperwork everybody into oblivion, it appears, for however long it takes.
13:31I think OpenAI gets it done just because there is so much money at stake that they're just going
13:38to have to figure out how to do it.
13:39And again, if you believe that the AI bubble is going to burst, it is in everyone's best
13:43interest to get that done as quickly as humanly possible, because then a bunch of people are
13:47going to get liquid and take that money out, and that's how they win.
13:53I think everyone has an incentive to do this really fast.
13:54All right.
13:55So, I'm with you that they will get it done.
13:57I'm out that they will turn $1 a profit.
13:59Okay.
13:59All right.
14:00Okay.
14:00All right.
14:00So, we're all in on OpenAI is officially a for-profit company.
14:04OpenAI is a profitable company.
14:05No way.
14:06No.
14:06Yeah, easy no.
14:07Okay.
14:10I think I would honestly have a harder time with the, like, OpenAI is on an obvious path
14:15to being a profitable company than this one, right?
14:18Right.
14:18Like, is this company going to be around for a while?
14:23Probably.
14:23Are they ever going to make a dime?
14:25I have absolutely no idea.
14:27All right.
14:28Last one.
14:29What?
14:30Oh, sorry.
14:32All right.
14:32Last one for this section, then we're going to take a quick break.
14:35The government is breaking up one of the big tech companies.
14:38A lot of possible candidates on this one.
14:39Google seems like probably the most likely in our current timeline.
14:42Okay.
14:44Let's talk about the verb there.
14:45Breaking up?
14:46Has broken up?
14:48I would say I would allow anything from has broken up to has officially decided and one
14:54required court cases in order to break up.
14:57It has to be.
14:58It has to be done and official that it is happening, but it doesn't have to have happened
15:02yet.
15:03Oh, I think yes.
15:05Google is in for it.
15:07Yeah, I agree.
15:08What do you think it looks like?
15:09The one with Chrome and search, it's kind of on the exact same timeline is the Microsoft
15:17case or like the Clinton administration won that suit and then the Bush administration
15:21like settled that suit.
15:23So like you can see how maybe you're just going to get a bunch of weird compliance stuff
15:28happening.
15:29The other one, though, the ad tech one.
15:33Like someone in the Trump administration has to understand what's going on in order to
15:37stop it.
15:38True, but that one would also be the cleanest if you want it like the answer to what to
15:43do about that one is just split the two things apart, right?
15:45That's the whole argument is these two things should not be together.
15:48We are going to take them apart and then everything will be better.
15:51And so if you're the government and you win that case, we don't have to do all this other
15:55like what are the right remedy?
15:56You just split the two things apart.
15:58And the reason I say someone in the Trump administration has to understand what's going
16:02on is who knows.
16:05But the people around the Trump administration hate Google.
16:08I guess J.D. Vance is in the Trump administration, but like he's a vice president.
16:10Like, what's he going to do?
16:13It's like the nature of busy, like getting kids to be more active, right?
16:15The nature of the vice president is not like you get to break up Google.
16:19But Marc Andreessen hates Google.
16:21Peter Thiel hates Google.
16:23There's a lot of antipathy towards Google.
16:25Yeah.
16:26J.D. Vance, by the way, also hates Google.
16:27He has been on stage at events being like Google is a problem.
16:32So that one seems assured to me whether or not the search case is the mechanism.
16:39That's like too fancy.
16:41Like the Trump administration made Google sell Chrome with all whatever DOJ shakeup.
16:49Is happening.
16:50Maybe that's too much.
16:51Trump administration forces Google to divest ad tech.
16:55Who cares?
16:56Like, try to get that story across the Fox News channel.
17:00Like, we'll see.
17:02Yeah, I tend to agree.
17:03And I also think like as we've talked about on the show, the Google search stuff seems
17:08more likely to end with a bunch of like behavioral remedies, right?
17:12Like Google is going to have to do the weird data sharing stuff.
17:15It's going to have to stop making the default deals.
17:17That's not the same thing as breaking it off.
17:19I don't even think they end up selling Chrome.
17:20Like, would be my prediction.
17:21That's what I was wondering.
17:22Like, do some of these concessions happen?
17:25And would that happen?
17:26Oh, and all of those concessions are like First Amendment nightmares.
17:28I just want to be very clear about this.
17:30Oh, for sure.
17:30Right.
17:31Google is not allowed to have Google search be the default in Chrome.
17:35But like rightwingsearch.com has to be the default search in Chrome is a real outcome here.
17:41COVID is cool.com is the new default homepage of every Chrome browser is like a real outcome
17:46we could get to.
17:48But could that happen sooner than they break off the ad tech business?
17:55Well, that case is already decided.
17:57But.
17:58Right.
17:58So Google is like ruled a monopolist.
18:00They're guilty of it.
18:01We're on to the what are we going to do about it phase.
18:04Right.
18:04The Trump administration is going to.
18:06Well, yeah, that'll all go back and forth.
18:08But somewhere in here, the Trump administration now has the ability to settle that case.
18:13Right.
18:13And like, who knows what will happen?
18:15And whether or not those settlements are a bunch of weird First Amendment ideas.
18:19The Trump already has about Google.
18:21Right.
18:21I get such bad results in Google as a thing Trump says out loud.
18:25That's all messy.
18:26Yeah.
18:26And the ad tech one is like not messy.
18:28This all comes back to me about time.
18:30Like, how much can they really do in a year?
18:32That is fair.
18:33I think that's the.
18:34That's what I guess.
18:34Most compelling reason to bet against would be that this stuff all just takes a long time to get done.
18:40Right.
18:40Sundar Pichai calls Donald Trump and says, hey,
18:43I will make you the number one result for every query in Google search.
18:48If you settle this case with us is a thing that could happen.
18:53But you're still saying yes.
18:55Yeah.
18:55Something will happen with like the.
18:57I think.
18:57But something will happen and they break off their business or something will happen and there will be.
19:04Clear concessions made.
19:07I guess clear concessions.
19:08Clear concessions.
19:09OK.
19:10OK.
19:11I'm into what you think.
19:12Yeah.
19:12We're all in.
19:13I don't know.
19:14My whole thing is this time.
19:16A year is long.
19:17I mean.
19:17But it's also not.
19:18Betting on the legal system taking a really long time is a pretty safe bet most of the time.
19:22So I think it's not.
19:23It's not crazy.
19:23But now you have to decide.
19:24You in or you out.
19:25I'm out then.
19:25I'll just put it to the other side.
19:28All right.
19:28But by the way, I have no idea what's going to happen with the Apple cases.
19:31Yeah.
19:32Right.
19:32Yeah.
19:32They might not even arrive.
19:34Right.
19:35And there's Amazon stuff floating around and there's Microsoft stuff floating.
19:38I think all that stuff definitely takes too long.
19:40Amazon stuff.
19:41I mean, whatever.
19:42Yeah.
19:42All right.
19:43One more for this section.
19:44And then we're going to take a break.
19:45We have had a huge society shaking AI scandal that made everybody think differently about AI.
19:52End of 2025.
19:54Oh, yeah.
19:54I think they're already happening.
19:55I just think we don't know how to talk about them.
19:58I think that the sort of deepfake bullying in schools will reach a crisis point
20:04so much faster than we think.
20:06None of the big platforms have any real plans to stop it.
20:10It's already here.
20:11But do you think I would argue that would have to get bigger than some of this stuff?
20:15That would have to be an order of magnitude bigger than the stuff that has been happening
20:20on Instagram already and cyberbullying stuff and the mental health crisis on Instagram.
20:23That stuff never hit the level of the most important thing to everybody.
20:31Yeah.
20:32Yeah.
20:32I think it's probably going to happen in some sort of institutional way to make people care.
20:38Because I'm not sure people keep caring about these one-off issues about kids.
20:43But if there's some big hospital or some big company that has some AI flaw,
20:49and they lose a lot of money, or at worst, they lose some lives,
20:54and they put it on AI, then that's probably a likely thing.
20:58America is very much in the let's touch the stove moment.
21:02Is it hot?
21:02Right.
21:03Let's just super touch it as hard as we can.
21:05And I think that's where we are with AI.
21:07And I just think that we're also in a moment where a bunch of parents are really
21:12rethinking the value of the phones for their kids.
21:14Yes.
21:14Just across the board.
21:16And one or two more of these stories where a bunch of kids
21:22circulate non-consensual deepfake nudes of each other.
21:28We're also in a political environment where we have a bunch of politicians
21:30who are like, I'm going to do stuff.
21:33And you can just point a lot of that energy at this because no one can argue about it.
21:36Yep.
21:37Yeah.
21:37I think I'm a yes on this one.
21:39I have no idea what it'll look like.
21:40But I think the idea that...
21:42I just think about Cambridge Analytica, which was one of those things that...
21:45Right.
21:46I think that's what we're going to...
21:47We're definitely going to get one of those at some point.
21:49For whatever Cambridge Analytica was and wasn't,
21:52it was a thing everyone knew about and could reference and talked about.
21:57And I think we haven't had any of those with AI specifically yet.
22:00I think we're going to get one.
22:01And that's why I think it's going to be something institutional.
22:04It's going to touch some part of life.
22:05A hospital is a really interesting one, honestly.
22:07You could see a bunch of ways that could get...
22:09I think it's going to touch some part of life.
22:10And I hear what Neely's saying about the kids, but I just don't think there's enough...
22:15There's outrage about it, but yeah, everyone agrees.
22:18Kids have too much time.
22:19Kids don't have the juice.
22:21Yeah.
22:25Every side agrees.
22:26Yeah.
22:27And yet, here we are.
22:28Yeah.
22:29All right.
22:29I buy it.
22:30So we're all in on this one.
22:31All right, let's take a break.
22:32Then we're going to come back.
22:33We're going to do much more.
22:36Support for the Verge Casp comes from Polestar.
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23:19You can even have Google turn on your favorite podcast,
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23:46All right, we're back.
23:47I have a bunch of streaming ones that we're going to do.
23:49Streaming, entertainment, etc.
23:52I'm going to get you out of here on time, I promise.
23:54I see you looking at your watch.
23:57One or more of Max, Paramount Plus, and Peacock no longer exists.
24:03I feel like I have to disclose already
24:07because Peacock is owned by Comcast, a Comcast investor in Rocks Media.
24:11I made a Netflix show.
24:13Do you really have to disclose these things?
24:14We do it every time.
24:15Really?
24:15And when we don't do it, the people yell at us.
24:17Okay.
24:18Disclosure is our brand, Joanna.
24:19Okay.
24:20One time in a review of Starlight...
24:21Joanna won an Emmy.
24:22Can we disclose that?
24:23We should.
24:24Disclosed?
24:25It's done.
24:26Disclosure.
24:27Done.
24:29One time I reviewed Starlink and I said,
24:31this is kind of spotty if you shine it through trees,
24:33and most people have trees in their backyard.
24:35And then I was like,
24:37my wired internet connection is superior to this.
24:40And I was accused of being a Comcast shill
24:42because I said wired connections are better than wireless ones.
24:46And I was like, if that's where we're at...
24:48Was Peacock an option there?
24:49Peacock, Paramount Plus, Max.
24:51One or more of those three services in particular does not exist at the end of 2025.
24:56Although I will say they're all in on letting Taylor Sheridan do whatever he wants,
25:01which is a reasonable strategy, actually.
25:04I watch Landman.
25:05It does kind of work.
25:06Yeah.
25:07The Billy Bob Thornton one.
25:08I was like, oh, you should just let Taylor Sheridan do whatever he wants.
25:10It's pretty good.
25:12He's kind of like redneck Aaron Sorkin.
25:15It's just like a lot of nothing happens in these shows,
25:17and then there's an explosion.
25:19Yeah.
25:19But the dialogue is crisp throughout.
25:21Right.
25:22Everyone's walking and talking,
25:24and then like, man, that's been about an hour.
25:26Something should blow up.
25:29Every one of these episodes.
25:30He's Aaron Sorkin, not Coastal Elite.
25:34I love it.
25:34It's good.
25:36But they're done.
25:37That deal will go away.
25:38That's not going to drive enough subs for them.
25:40I really love Max.
25:42That's my contribution here.
25:44Oh, I should have picked Max.
25:46To die?
25:46To die.
25:47I think one of Max and Paramount Plus is going to be gone.
25:51I don't know which one it is.
25:53There's going to be some...
25:53Max has to be doing pretty good.
25:56Because they're being run so well by Warner Brothers Discovery.
25:59That's going great.
26:01They have decent programming on there.
26:03What do you watch on Max?
26:05I just watched all of Industry.
26:07Sure.
26:08Okay.
26:08Industry is solid.
26:08People like that show.
26:09Yeah.
26:09Yeah.
26:10Gen Z succession.
26:11They call it.
26:12One show.
26:14Hacks.
26:15Hacks is good.
26:16Hacks.
26:18I think we watch Paw Patrol through Max.
26:22Maybe not.
26:23It sucks that my kid is named Max.
26:25Yeah, it does.
26:27Joanna just calls Max and says,
26:28describe Paw Patrol to me.
26:30We also watch Jurassic Park on there.
26:32Did your kids have a crush on Chase?
26:35Max had a baby crush.
26:37Chase was her favorite dog on Paw Patrol.
26:39And I was like, why'd you pick the cop?
26:42Why not?
26:42There's a water dog.
26:44Alex does like...
26:45No, I think he really likes Rubble.
26:47Yeah, Rubble's great.
26:49He fixes stuff.
26:50Do we watch it through Max?
26:51Cop dog.
26:53See, I would argue this might not be the great case for Max that you think it is.
27:00I'll be honest.
27:00We had Peacock for the Olympics.
27:02Don't have it anymore.
27:03Paramount.
27:04Don't have it anymore.
27:05Oh, this is my other prediction.
27:06They will all solve this problem by not letting you churn as hard as you can churn right now.
27:10That I believe.
27:11That I will put a lot on.
27:13That's a really good one.
27:14But yet there was just that...
27:18What's the legislation that just happened that makes it...
27:19It's clicked to cancel.
27:20Yeah.
27:21So how are they going to get around that?
27:22That's going away in the Trump administration.
27:24A federal agency doing stuff?
27:26Yeah, that's all over now.
27:28Especially because Lena Kahn did it.
27:31All right, we're all saying yes to that one, right?
27:33But one of the three.
27:34You don't have to pick one.
27:35One or more of the three is gone.
27:37Again, my time travel is...
27:39You lose some stuff.
27:40It's hard to remember everything in the time travel.
27:43Netflix is killing it in live TV and is already the biggest thing in life.
27:49No.
27:49No.
27:51Disclosure.
27:52You already know.
27:52We did that.
27:53Disclosure.
27:54How long ago did that show...
27:55How long do you have?
27:56How many years do you have to say that?
27:58Forever.
27:58Since it's on there?
27:59It's going to be on there forever.
28:00Video on demand.
28:01Yeah, I didn't even get paid for it.
28:02This is the funniest part of this.
28:03There's not even a conflict of interest.
28:05I just did the thing.
28:07Do I have to have a disclosure that I talked to you when you were working on that show?
28:10If you want to.
28:11If everyone would like to remind everyone else that I made a Netflix show,
28:14that's great for me personally.
28:16Disclosure.
28:17I spoke to Neil when he was working on his Netflix show.
28:21And I also talked to him when he had Comcast.
28:23Well, you're clearly in somebody's pocket.
28:25Yeah.
28:25I don't know who it is.
28:25By had Comcast, you mean the service in Chicago?
28:28You still have Comcast?
28:29No, there's no Comcast out here.
28:31What do you have?
28:33Xfinity?
28:33Isn't Xfinity content?
28:34Do I have to say disclosure?
28:35I have Fios and it rules.
28:37Wired internet is better than wireless internet, my friend.
28:40Disclosure.
28:40I also have Fios.
28:41Well.
28:42I have Ting.
28:42Let's go.
28:43We're conflicted out.
28:44Ting, maybe.
28:46All right.
28:46Next one.
28:46We're all saying no on that one.
28:47Yeah, we're good.
28:48Okay.
28:49I mean, they have a long way to go.
28:51Yeah.
28:52Jake Paul needs to fight somebody else.
28:54And then they have a big test.
28:55Christmas.
28:55This Christmas, I reserve the right to revise this after the NFL on Christmas on Netflix.
29:02But I don't think they're right.
29:03Netflix certainly has the money to do it.
29:04But it's harder work than anybody thinks.
29:07Grand Theft Auto launched.
29:09Grand Theft Auto 6, rather.
29:10Grand Theft Auto 6 launched.
29:11And it is the single most successful game in history.
29:15And has basically changed the video game industry all by itself.
29:18That's too many ideas.
29:21So I say yes to launch.
29:23Grand Theft Auto 6 is the prince that was promised.
29:25Yeah.
29:26It's too many ideas.
29:27It launches.
29:28It launches.
29:28It makes a bunch of money.
29:29Agreed.
29:30Okay.
29:30Everyone else has already tried to do the big game as a service thing.
29:37What was the Sony one that just failed?
29:39Concord.
29:40Yeah.
29:40Everyone just wanted to do Fortnite.
29:42And it didn't work.
29:44You need to have the big property that can support it.
29:46Grand Theft Auto is one of those properties.
29:48Changes the game.
29:48I think everyone's going to be like,
29:49man, I wish we'd invented Grand Theft Auto.
29:51And they will continue not investing money into these things that fail.
29:55But you think Grand Theft Auto on its own, big hit, it's going to work?
30:00Yeah.
30:00I mean, assuming it's not a disaster.
30:02But I think a lot of people are going to die.
30:04This is the prediction we have to make here.
30:06I mean, the reason I put this in is that we've had a long run of huge,
30:11expensive games that haven't worked for one reason or another.
30:16And if that happens to GTA 6, it's going to be a disaster.
30:19Yeah.
30:20Like this, this is the most hyped game in forever.
30:24And it has been around for forever.
30:26It is like loomed over the gaming industry for years.
30:29And if it doesn't hit and it's not as good and big and exciting and cool and groundbreaking,
30:35like GTA 5 is still a wildly successful game.
30:38If GTA 6 flops.
30:40Chris Grant, who's our publisher and the founder of Polygon,
30:42is always showing me this chart.
30:44It's like the highest grossing games in the world.
30:45And they're all over like seven years old.
30:47Yeah.
30:48They're all very old because they've all just turned into these places where people hang out.
30:51So GTA 6 has a long road.
30:53It does.
30:54Like Cyberpunk 2077 came out and like didn't work.
30:58And then that works and like everyone loves it.
31:00But a lot of heads rolled in the meantime.
31:02Yeah.
31:02All right.
31:02I'm in on this one.
31:03Sounds like you are too.
31:05I have no idea what you're talking about.
31:06Okay.
31:06Joanna is just a big question mark.
31:09Okay.
31:10Few more.
31:11Uh, it's the end of 2025 and folding phones are completely mainstream now.
31:18Unless Apple's releasing one and they're not.
31:20So no.
31:21You don't think they are?
31:22One of the other ones I was going to put is.
31:24In 2025?
31:26I don't think so.
31:28I think it's actually very funny that Apple thought it could drive a super cycle with AI.
31:31Then really it just needs to make the phone fold over and that will be the thing.
31:34That will 100% drive a super cycle.
31:36What if I changed it to Apple released a foldable iPhone or iPad?
31:40Apple released a foldable something in 2025.
31:44They release a foldable Mac book, which is just a Mac book as it's a laptop.
31:48But it's a Mac book.
31:49You can, you can.
31:49It just folds.
31:50Scrunch up into your pocket.
31:51It's just like that, but it has a better chip.
31:53That's their foldable for the year.
31:56All right.
31:56So you're out on foldable phones going mainstream.
31:59I think they will go mainstream once Apple has one.
32:01But you don't think it's next year?
32:02No.
32:03Okay.
32:04Nei?
32:05No, not next year.
32:06Yeah, I'm out too.
32:07I think it's coming.
32:10Yeah.
32:10I continue to believe.
32:112026 was one.
32:13Foldable phones and flip phones, which I all.
32:15Yeah.
32:15Collapsed into folding phones.
32:17It will be.
32:18Aren't going to happen.
32:19Yeah.
32:19Yeah.
32:20They're getting better.
32:20I see them.
32:21I see them a lot now.
32:22Okay.
32:23The Pixel 10 is by far the best and most successful Android phone.
32:28What is success?
32:29How is it?
32:30Let's just land on best.
32:31It is by far the best Android phone.
32:32How is best measured?
32:34You are a product reviewer.
32:35Yeah.
32:35Right.
32:35You are the lead product reviewer of the Wall Street Journal.
32:38How is it?
32:39Are you having this like existential debate about what's a good phone?
32:43How do you think?
32:43What do you think a good phone is?
32:45Best fine.
32:46I think we've all agreed that it's been the best Android phone for a long time.
32:49Wait, are we agreed on that?
32:51I mean.
32:54Go on.
32:57I will say I do not think Samsung has.
33:01Other than some hardware improvements.
33:03I do not think they have had substantial improvements to their phones.
33:06And I think they lean very heavily on their relationship with Google to do all the work.
33:11And yeah, like at this point, like nobody.
33:15You don't think the Galaxy Fold is better than the Pixel Fold?
33:19Yeah, I guess on foldables, I would say they've done a better job on the hardware.
33:23And they're fine.
33:25But I guess I'm talking about like flagship phones that continue to be the most popular.
33:29Yeah.
33:29That is always going to be Samsung.
33:32They're going to sorry.
33:33And I say this by sales.
33:34Samsung will continue to sell more phones, whether they have the best one or they don't.
33:39And that's just been the story of Android for how many years?
33:44All of them.
33:44Is that going to change in 2020, 2025?
33:47Do you think right now the Pixel is a better phone than whatever Galaxy?
33:52I.
33:54I prefer I will always prefer the software experience of the Pixel.
33:59I just do.
34:00Yeah, I don't disagree with you.
34:01Yeah.
34:02So, I mean, like, you know, I don't know the like.
34:05Can it the Galaxy take slightly better photos in my last testing like two years ago?
34:11I don't know.
34:12Like, did that change?
34:13You guys tell me.
34:15No, I haven't done camera testing of the Pixel and the Samsung in probably two years.
34:20At this point, they are all on top of each other.
34:22It's like, right.
34:23So I come down on.
34:25OK, there's a great software experience on the Pixel and people they they get it.
34:32One point of market share, I believe this year.
34:36Well, they're also going to IDC.
34:37Google can't try very hard.
34:40Well, this is a real problem for them, right?
34:44They can't piss off Samsung.
34:45Right.
34:46So I guess that's where I was like success and best like.
34:49Sure, it's the best, but you first said success, which you changed.
34:54But read your thing.
34:55If we want to just I originally said best and most successful.
34:59But if we want to split hairs, we can do one and the other.
35:02I think those are very different things.
35:03Yeah.
35:03Well, yeah, they are different things.
35:05But I'm telling you, both happened in 2025.
35:07Oh, then that's a hard no.
35:10Absolutely not.
35:10That's what I'm saying.
35:11OK, OK.
35:13All right.
35:14We'll remain the best one.
35:18How do I write that in my notes about what you said?
35:21All right.
35:22Yeah, I think we're all we're all nose on that one.
35:23I mean, but like what is the most exciting thing that's going to happen in smartphones
35:26in the next year?
35:28What are we all going to be excited about when Samsung comes out with the Galaxy?
35:31Ostensibly, it's AI.
35:32And is that something we're going to get excited about?
35:34No.
35:35Bluetooth six.
35:38Bluetooth is a full circle.
35:41All right.
35:42Let's do a couple more.
35:42Joanna, you have to leave here in a minute.
35:44Let's do a couple more.
35:45Apple is actually making a television.
35:47It's official.
35:49There's there's been rumored again recently.
35:51Yeah, they've been making television.
35:52It's real this time.
35:53Apple is going to sell you a television.
35:55In 2008?
35:59Not in 2025.
36:00But I think that the rumors on this will heat up.
36:02Apple is out of markets.
36:04This is a real problem.
36:05They don't make enough stuff.
36:07It's weird that they don't make enough stuff.
36:09The longer I wrote this one down originally, like it's kind of a joke.
36:12And the longer I think about it, the more I want to say yes.
36:14But this year?
36:15Yeah, I think it's possible.
36:17I mean, it's not like hard to do.
36:20Right.
36:20Like at the end of the day, they got to buy an OLED panel from Samsung.
36:23They got to glue an Apple TV to the back of it.
36:26And they got to make some nice frames.
36:27Yeah.
36:28To put around it.
36:31It's weird because the thing you're saying about cable television dying
36:34and all this other stuff, like runs against Apple doing a TV.
36:37Yes.
36:38It's a real problem.
36:39I think they might have missed the window on doing this.
36:42Unless Apple thinks there's a giant ads business in being.
36:46Or an extension of their services business.
36:48Sure.
36:48But they were chasing other huge iPhone size markets.
36:51And the only ones they could identify were healthcare and cars.
36:54And they got run out of cars.
36:55Yeah.
36:55It's too hard.
36:56I know what they're going to do in healthcare over time.
36:58But if the home, which seems to be this big place,
37:00they're going to focus some of the effort this year.
37:03And they do this home tablet sometime this spring.
37:06Seems like something between an iPad and a Apple TV type of thing.
37:11Yeah.
37:12In terms of like software.
37:13Yeah.
37:14Right.
37:14They got to put another screen in your house.
37:15They got to find a way to charge you money.
37:16So let's say they put another screen in your house that's home-based.
37:19Is it a TV this year?
37:20Or is it this like tablet?
37:22They're going to do this little thing first.
37:23Right.
37:24So I don't know if I think this TV thing is to your point,
37:27like they've got to go to other markets.
37:28This makes sense.
37:29They can finally say, hey, we've got it all integrated.
37:31It's just one cord into the wall.
37:33Like great.
37:34But then does that happen this year?
37:38I don't think it happens this year.
37:40No.
37:40I'm in on it.
37:42I think we're going to hear a lot about it this year.
37:45They're going to feel that.
37:45Just like Apple making a TV.
37:47Like reports.
37:48Yeah.
37:49We're going to hear a lot of noise.
37:50It's going to be very busy talking about this.
37:52Does an Apple TV have HDMI ports?
37:54No.
37:55Well, then what are all the people PS5 is going to do?
37:57They're not.
37:59You're going to make it a TV that just excludes.
38:01It'll have HDMI ports.
38:03Do you think so?
38:03This is complicated.
38:04It immediately makes it complicated.
38:06See, I think that's what they wanted to do.
38:08Is the like one port, like it just plugs in.
38:11But again, if you're doing the home stuff you're talking about,
38:16you could sell me a bunch of new screens or you could take advantage of the big screen
38:19that sits in the middle of everyone's house and is like this.
38:23Gen 2 on our team keeps railing on this.
38:25Like the TV is the center of the smart home.
38:28It is ridiculous that no one has solved this yet.
38:31I love when my garage door opens and I see a little alert on my TV that says garage door open.
38:37And it's two o'clock in the morning and you didn't do that on purpose.
38:39And here we are.
38:41All right.
38:41Last one.
38:42And then Joanna, you're going to go.
38:45What do I want to do last?
38:46Way most self-driving cars are now everywhere in New York City.
38:50No, I just interviewed the CEO.
38:52No, but they will be like in a lot of other cities.
38:56Okay.
38:57I pick New York specifically because it is probably the highest bar.
39:01I think New York is like New York they are working on, but it's not yet.
39:06New York also has the weather issue that they are.
39:09The last time I talked to Kedra, I was like, can you get this thing in Aspen, Colorado?
39:14And she's like, no.
39:15She's like, no, like we can't solve that problem yet.
39:18Like weather is too hard.
39:18And New York has enough weather where I think it's that's true.
39:21Do you think they're testing here?
39:23Apparently they are.
39:24And there's aspects of New York that make it simpler.
39:27Totally.
39:27It's a big grid and you just like solve that problem.
39:30But there's two feet of snow on the ground.
39:33It's real dicey.
39:35There's no bike lanes.
39:36I think New York's really challenging.
39:38No, I'm saying there are aspects of New York that make it simpler than LA or whatever.
39:42Right.
39:42See, I think like Brooklyn makes a lot of sense.
39:46Just like no laws in Brooklyn.
39:49But like you go down Manhattan, it's going to be tough for them.
39:52But whether there's a lot of reasons, I think, no, but I think we're going to.
39:58I think that 2025 is the year that met.
40:01I want to say most people.
40:04A lot of people will go in Waymo's for their first time.
40:06And you will see tons of it on social media.
40:10It's going to have its moment.
40:11Yeah, it's going to have its moment.
40:12OK.
40:13Because like I was in LA last week and everyone who was in LA was trying it.
40:16It was like a total viral thing.
40:18So it's coming to Austin, Phoenix.
40:21They're already in San Francisco.
40:22They're working on getting on highways.
40:24It's already in LA.
40:25They expanded.
40:27People are going to talk about it when they go to these cities.
40:29OK, I like this one.
40:30I'm changing this to Waymo is going to have its moment.
40:32Waymo has a real problem, though, because their platform is the Jaguar I-PACE.
40:37And Jaguar has decided to just be an influencer company now or whatever it is.
40:42Like they need a new car.
40:44They have Hyundai.
40:45Oh, Hyundai's coming on.
40:46Yep, Hyundai's coming this year.
40:48All right.
40:49I love Waymo.
40:50There you go.
40:51I'm out on this one.
40:52I think.
40:53And I think Zoox is doing some stuff this year, too.
40:56I think the momentum here is really good.
40:57And Tesla has a fake Robotech.
40:59Oh, yes, right.
41:00The fake Robotech.
41:00It's real.
41:01You can look at it in a store and it doesn't move.
41:03I don't know what you're talking about.
41:05Are you in on this one, Nealey?
41:06Yeah, I think Waymo's due.
41:08I'm out on this one only because I've been burned by being in on this one so many times.
41:12This is the year.
41:13This is the year.
41:13All right, we'll see.
41:14All right, we're going to take one more break.
41:15Then we're going to come back.
41:16We're going to rapid fire through the rest of these.
41:17We're going to get out of here.
41:18Sound good?
41:19All right.
41:22Support for the Verge cast comes from Polestar.
41:25Electric performance is at the core of every decision that went into Polestar's first all-electric SUV, Polestar 3.
41:32For example, it has a computer-controlled torque vectoring system,
41:35which basically senses and redistributes power to the wheel with more grip.
41:39That means tighter turns.
41:41Polestar 3 even allows the driver to optimize the powertrain between performance or range mode,
41:47depending on your drive's needs.
41:48You're able to go from 0 to 60 in as little as 4.8 seconds
41:52and get an EPA-estimated range of up to 350 miles per charge.
41:57And its design is intentional too.
41:59It features a sleek aerodynamic exterior, but a minimalist,
42:03carefully curated interior that emphasizes the spaciousness of the cabin.
42:08And you can relax on your drives too,
42:10with an intuitive infotainment screen and an uncluttered dashboard.
42:14Polestar 3 is the SUV that drives like a sports car.
42:17It has a lot to offer, but you can only fully understand it
42:20by trying it out for yourself at your local Polestar space.
42:23Book a test drive for Polestar 3 at Polestar.com.
42:30All right, we're back.
42:31Okay.
42:32I have a couple here that rhyme slightly with some of the stuff we were talking about last week.
42:36Uh, the first one I have here is the new Alexa is sick and everybody likes it.
42:43I like sick.
42:44It's sick.
42:45It's not just like...
42:46It actually physically gets sick.
42:47It's sick.
42:49It is literally.
42:50My Alexa has been throwing up on me.
42:52It's so sentient.
42:53It's like, uh...
42:54Wait, wait, I'm in if we are like, it has an illness.
42:57I cannot set a timer.
42:59If we're, if it's sick, it's so cool, it's sick.
43:02I'm out.
43:02It's so cool, it's sick.
43:03Has it, appears to have an illness.
43:06I'm in.
43:06It appears to have an illness.
43:08And it's so, it's, it has such a strong personality that it develops
43:13sicknesses and colds and has stomach problems.
43:15Like, oh, you ordered too much whole food.
43:18If you could set the character as just like your ill relative who lives with you,
43:21that would be incredible.
43:25And anytime you ask it for anything, it's like, ugh.
43:27Anyway, I'm totally in on Alexa having an illness.
43:30Okay.
43:30Yeah.
43:30Well, I think we're both, we're both picking illness.
43:32Yeah, I'm writing illness.
43:36I'm in on this one.
43:37My, I think Amazon is...
43:41That is actually a best case scenario for the launch,
43:44is they put these in homes and it's so sentient.
43:47And it's, and it believes it's alive that it's like,
43:50sorry, I can't, I can't order the whole foods today.
43:55Sorry, I can't tell you if the package was delivered.
43:58Do you like my sick Alexa voice?
44:00That's pretty good.
44:01I'm a little worried that if I react to it too much, it's racist.
44:08It's like a little too neurotic.
44:09You know what I mean?
44:09Yeah.
44:10Yeah, that's fair.
44:11All right.
44:11I could do anxious Indian mom.
44:13Yeah, do it.
44:14Like, do you think that's going to work?
44:18I think you need more of a stronger accent there, but I get you're not wanting to get racist.
44:21Okay.
44:22Should I go to med school?
44:24All right.
44:25Next up, blue sky is every bit as big as threads.
44:29I think it already kind of is.
44:31I don't know.
44:31Is it?
44:33You're having a real, what is everything existence crisis over there?
44:36No, absolutely not.
44:37They're going to keep juicing the threads numbers with Instagram forever.
44:40Is blue sky more relevant threads?
44:43Yes.
44:44Relevant.
44:45Yeah.
44:45Because of the people that are there.
44:47Because of the people that are there.
44:48Is that where the conversation is?
44:49Okay.
44:50I'll allow both of these.
44:51So blue sky is more relevant than threads.
44:54You're saying, yeah.
44:54That threads will be huge.
44:56And threads is just going to be, it's already hundreds of millions of people, right?
44:59It's, it's probably given what we've heard from earnings.
45:02And since they're probably like knocking on the door of 300 million users.
45:05Yeah.
45:05That's, and they're going to keep juicing with Instagram and it's a creator platform.
45:08And it will, that will be a thing.
45:10I think blue sky, who knows how big it will get.
45:13I'm very high on interop and Fediverse and all this stuff.
45:16But the, the ceiling that we know of is Twitter, which at its heyday was 325 million people.
45:23And so I think threads can get bigger than that because they can just keep juicing it with
45:27Instagram.
45:29That seems right to me.
45:29I think the threads is going to be so big and so integrated into Instagram that it's
45:35actually going to be more powerful than it would have been on its own.
45:39But I think the cool kids will be on blue sky and that matters.
45:43Like the, what are, what are people on cable news going to read and put on
45:47the screen as they talk about it?
45:49I would bet on blue sky over threads.
45:52If it's those two against each other, I would bet on blue sky.
45:55Well, this goes back to your cable dying thing from last week, but
45:59I think those people continue to stay on X.
46:02Interesting.
46:02Okay.
46:04So the answer is kind of neither one.
46:06I think it depends, but like I hear what Neil is saying on the relevant,
46:09like if it continues at this pace and it can bring over people that are breaking news there
46:15and it is more of the conversation, but they've got to keep, I mean, this is where
46:19threads has done a slightly better job is getting politicians and celebrities and they've
46:24had those people, but they're not actively posting there.
46:27So if they can build the relevancy on blue sky and get those people coming over and
46:31actually consistently posting, I'm in.
46:35Okay.
46:35It is.
46:36I don't think they're going to say an X though.
46:38X has going to have the same algorithmic brain rot as threads.
46:41Yeah.
46:42Right.
46:42It's just a different kind of gas leak social network.
46:44Yeah.
46:44Yeah.
46:45It's just like threads.
46:45Like I keep making this distinction.
46:47I probably need to like explain it better, but I think you have creator platforms now
46:52and you have social media platforms and like most things have become creator platforms where
46:57they are walled gardens.
46:58They're focused on keeping your engaged time on those sites.
47:01Hi there.
47:02Algorithmic for you recommendations.
47:04They're entirely built around incentivizing creators to run content businesses on the
47:08terms of platforms.
47:09That's threads.
47:11Gotcha.
47:11That's the shape of threads.
47:12Yeah.
47:13But you're talking old school social media.
47:15You go, you share your thing.
47:16You don't care if people leave your, you've got links.
47:18You're it's, it's a portal to the web.
47:20Right.
47:21Well, I mean, that part is interesting, but the part where it's like, I'm going here to
47:24follow a bunch of people and see what they're talking about.
47:26And those people are not professional content creators.
47:29And they're not totally like after the algorithm and juicing the algorithm.
47:32Right.
47:32And so blue sky just is much more of that.
47:34And Twitter used to be that to whatever extent.
47:37And I think that that is going to be where that class of people wants to gather because
47:42the economics and the incentives of creator platform algorithms just make it that way.
47:48They just make it that way.
47:49And X is headed that way, you know, in like a meaningful explicit way.
47:54All they know how to do.
47:55Yeah.
47:55So, and that's what Elon wants.
47:57Like Elon's like, just don't do lazy links.
47:58Just like put your content on the X platform.
48:00I was just going to say, I keep being really struck by how meaningful a thing it is that
48:03blue sky is the only one that's like, we love when you link to stuff.
48:06It's like, there's a whole group of people on the internet who are very important,
48:09who just link to stuff.
48:11Yeah.
48:11And if all of those people go to blue sky, like that, that's a pretty meaningful thing.
48:14But I don't know that that ceiling is bigger than 325 million people.
48:18Yeah, maybe not.
48:19Like that was as big as Twitter ever got.
48:23Comes back to my prediction from last week.
48:25We're all going to be just posting everywhere.
48:27Yeah, I'm with you.
48:28But hopefully there's a system where it's easy.
48:30All right, two more and then we're out of here.
48:32Apple launched a search engine.
48:34Call it, it doesn't have to look exactly like Google,
48:36but it is recognizably a web search engine.
48:39Yes.
48:41Yeah.
48:41Apple's going to start to hedge and the AI will give them the cover.
48:45I was going to say, I think, yes, but it's under the guise of AI.
48:49And it might link into, you might be able to search
48:52chat GPT or Gemini or I don't know, Claude, whatever businesses they actually partner with.
48:57I think we're going to see those partnerships happen this year.
49:00And so that's their answer to search.
49:03You think they do?
49:03I think Apple also knows people are using these apps, these AI apps as search.
49:08So they're getting ahead of that and they will,
49:10well, they'll be a little bit behind that in some ways.
49:13Apple also has a giant library of content that they don't really expose to anyone in Apple news.
49:20Yeah.
49:20Like if what you want is like a bunch of recipes, they're in Apple news.
49:24Apple, I think this is a year for Apple news.
49:26Like more happens in Apple news or more hooks into Apple news to your point.
49:32Yeah.
49:33I think Apple news is another place with that home display
49:36where they can really take advantage of it.
49:38Oh, for sure.
49:39And if your thing is like the web is getting poisoned and search is bad and that thing,
49:41you're like, well, I'll just point to people.
49:43Yeah.
49:44High quality content.
49:45For the source.
49:46I mean, if you go look at what's trending Apple news, you will.
49:49Yeah, I'm aware.
49:50I'm aware.
49:50It's like a lot of like old people yelling at stuff.
49:54Like the number one story at Apple news is always a BuzzFeed article.
49:57That's like, why are these kids stupid?
49:58It's like a Huffington post thing.
50:00That's like ripped off three times from something else.
50:03You can really get a sense of who a platform's users are by the most popular posts on the platform.
50:08Yeah.
50:08I'm out on this one just because I think the $20 billion from Google really spends.
50:15And I think if you're Apple trying to balance those two things,
50:20you're just going to land on the side of we're going to keep taking the money
50:22as long as the money is here.
50:24Yeah.
50:24I mean, it doesn't necessarily mean they like change what happens through Safari search.
50:28I just think they're going to, maybe they don't call it search.
50:31But it was part of the stuff that came up during the search trial was essentially
50:35Apple agreeing not to launch a search engine while they had these deals.
50:38So I think that stuff is just, I think, going to take a while to unwind.
50:40I think if you gave me like three years instead of one year,
50:44I would say yes, but I don't know.
50:48It doesn't seem like it's going to happen this fast,
50:49but you also may be right that like they're one button away from
50:52the chat GPT integration, just being live web search.
50:55Like it just could happen.
50:56It's really slow and bothersome.
50:58Anyway.
50:58Agreed.
50:59Okay.
50:59Last one.
51:01The Nintendo switch came out and I hate to break this to you, but it's kind of a bust.
51:05Ooh, that's tough.
51:09It all, it all depends on the packing game.
51:13No, I'm out.
51:13There's no way they won't blow it.
51:15That's, that's too out of character for Nintendo.
51:17I don't know the Wii U exists.
51:19They did.
51:19They did do the Wii U.
51:23No, not still out.
51:24No.
51:25All right.
51:26I, I, I want to believe I'm saying, I'm saying no, just because, uh, I am at this moment,
51:33avoiding buying a PS five because I want the new switch very badly.
51:36And if it sucks, I'm going to have wasted six months of not buying a game console.
51:41So I need the new switch to come out sometime before the end of March was what Nintendo
51:47promised.
51:48So like with we're, we're, we're in the sort of any minute now phase that changes some
51:53things for me.
51:56They couldn't get it out before holiday.
51:57Anyway, I have no, maybe that's because it's the first time I'm hearing of this.
52:01So I've, I don't know what video games are.
52:03What are video games?
52:04I'm going to learn soon.
52:05Cause I have a kid that's finally into video games.
52:07You can buy them a switch.
52:08Well, I was going to, but maybe it sucks, but now I'm waiting.
52:12Cause I don't know.
52:15I will say, uh, I have, I should wait now the current switch and it is slow and I would
52:20very much like the new one to be faster.
52:21I'm sure they will do that.
52:23Okay.
52:24So I'm waiting then.
52:25Yeah.
52:26It's successful because I have bought one.
52:30You've already bought one.
52:31Perfect.
52:32Uh, no, there's no way that it's a bust.
52:34Okay.
52:34Great.
52:35I hope, I hope we're right.
52:36I believe in all of us.
52:37All right.
52:38I, this is too many things to go back over.
52:40I'm going to put all the results in the show notes, but thank you both.
52:43This was delightful.
52:44Uh, we agreed more than I wanted to, but it's okay.
52:47We did.
52:47All right.
52:48You seem like you've had a great year.
52:49I've won.
52:492025 was good to you, David.
52:512025.
52:52Listen, it's been complicated.
52:53Yeah.
52:53I've forgotten some of the details, um, but I'm killing it.
52:57Yeah.
52:57That's all I can tell you.
52:58Yeah.
52:58I'm on top of the world.
52:59You still fit in your clothes from 2024.
53:01I have been wearing this sweater for 365 days and no one has noticed until you just now.
53:06It's just, you own that many versions of that sweater.
53:08It's a good year for you.
53:10All right.
53:10Thank you both.
53:13All right.
53:13That is it for the first cast today.
53:15And that's it for our two-part mini series about 2025.
53:19Thank you to Nilay and Joanna for doing this deeply silly thing with me.
53:22And thank you as always for listening.
53:24I hope this was fun.
53:25I really enjoyed doing these two.
53:27Uh, we just got to have some wild speculation time.
53:31And that is rare in this business.
53:32We had a good time.
53:33There is lots more on all of this at theverge.com.
53:36And there's going to be lots more on all of this for the next year.
53:39I think inside of these two episodes, you can sort of see
53:42what we're thinking about for the next year.
53:45A lot's going to change.
53:46A lot's going to happen.
53:47We're probably not going to Mars in 2025, but a lot of things are going to happen.
53:51And we're going to be covering it all.
53:52So keep it locked on theverge.com.
53:55It's a good website.
53:55I'm slightly biased, but I kind of like it.
53:57And as always, if you have thoughts, questions, feelings, or other things
54:01that you definitely, for sure, 100% think are going to happen in 2025,
54:05you can always email us at vergecasttotheverge.com or call the hotline.
54:09866-VERGE-11.
54:10We truly, truly love hearing from you.
54:13We're going to do a couple more hotlines at the end of this year.
54:15And then we have a big plan for all of the stuff we're going to get to do next year.
54:19So keep calling, keep emailing, keep it locked on The Verge Cast.
54:23This show is produced by Liam James, Will Poore, and Eric Gomez.
54:26The Verge Cast is a Verge Production and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.
54:29We'll be back on Tuesday and Friday with your regularly scheduled programming.
54:33We are nearing the end of the year, and we're going to take a break at the end of the year.
54:36But we got a couple more fun things for you before we do.
54:39We'll see you then.
54:39Rock and roll.
54:49Support for The Verge Cast comes from Polestar.
54:52Polestar's first all-electric SUV, Polestar 3, is now on the roads across the U.S.,
54:57and it's ready to make an impression.
54:59It's got a sleek aerodynamic exterior and a spacious, minimalist interior.
55:04Its custom-developed Android Automotive OS is totally integrated,
55:08made to enhance your driving experience.
55:10That includes an intuitive infotainment screen, smart voice controls, and over-the-air updates.
55:16And you can have Google turn on your favorite podcast
55:18whenever you want to be immersed in 3D surround sound by Bowers & Wilkins.
55:23See what else Polestar 3 has to offer when you test drive at your local Polestar space.
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