Our hottest and coldest 2025 takes | The Vergecast - video Dailymotion

The Verge

Welcome to our two-part preview of the year to come! For the first installment, Nilay, David, and Wall Street Journal columnist Joanna Stern bring all the predictions for 2025 — their mildest, medium-est, and spiciest ideas about the year to come. Each host presents their take on TikTok bans, social platforms, smart homes, streaming services, and more, and the others get to decide whether they agree. Whoever gets the most right at the end of the year will win a big prize. (There's a points system for determining all that, but we'll figure that out later.)

Transcript

00:00:00Welcome to the Verge cast, the flagship podcast of extremely mild, very hot takes. I'm your

00:00:08friend, David Pierce, and I am Christmas shopping. I have my whole list. I'm very organized

00:00:12this year. I have all the people that I need. I know roughly what I'm getting them. I had

00:00:16like a big self brainstorm of ideas, but do you know what I discovered? For me, at least

00:00:22the single hardest thing to buy is like a pretty good $20 gift. The things for like

00:00:28secret Santa parties or colleagues at work, or just this like list of people in the world

00:00:34you need to get something, but you don't know them well enough to really get something like

00:00:40super personal. And also it might be weird if you did, and you don't want to spend a

00:00:44ton of money. I think this is why I end up both like giving and receiving a lot of Starbucks

00:00:49gift cards every year. It's just a pretty universally useful thing that people like,

00:00:55but I don't want to do that so much anymore. I just don't know what else to do. I'm sort

00:01:01of lost on this idea of like, what is a good $20 relatively safe and universally liked

00:01:08gift to give? If you have the answer, I want to know. Please tell me. Sincerely, you will

00:01:13make everything about my holiday planning for forever better and easier. So get at me.

00:01:19Anyway, this episode is the first in a two part series we're doing about 2025. It's the

00:01:24end of 2024. We're doing some looking back on this show, but we thought it would also

00:01:28be fun to spend some time looking forward. 2025 is going to be a big year in tech. We

00:01:32have a new administration coming into office that is going to change the way that we think

00:01:36about a lot of politics and regulation, and has a lot of feelings about big tech, frankly.

00:01:41We have this AI bubble slash hype cycle slash takeover of the world that is still ongoing.

00:01:50We have all kinds of questions about antitrust and big tech and what's going to happen to

00:01:55the venture capital world. There's just a lot going on. And it feels like in so many

00:02:01ways 2025 is going to be maybe not a turning point, but a moment in certain ways. So we

00:02:07figured we'd just look ahead and see what we could guess about what's coming. I grabbed

00:02:12Nilay Patel and the Wall Street Journal's Joanna Stern, two of my favorite people to

00:02:16speculate wildly about tech with, and we spent some time doing it. For this first episode,

00:02:21we each came with predictions. I gave them both the homework to come with three different

00:02:25predictions ranked in order of spiciness, and we're just going to go around and talk

00:02:28about it. We invented a little game that, if I'm honest, only like half makes sense

00:02:33to me at this point, but we're going to figure it out as we go. It's going to be very fun.

00:02:37All that is coming up in just a second. But first, I guess I'm just buying Starbucks gift

00:02:41cards. This is life now. Merry Christmas, everybody. Have some Starbucks. This is The

00:02:45Verge Cast. We'll be right back.

00:02:49Support for The Verge Cast comes from Polestar. Polestar is an electric performance car brand

00:02:54focused on innovation for both cutting edge technology and design. Nothing exemplifies

00:02:59this better than Polestar 3, their luxury electric SUV. It features an aerodynamic exterior

00:03:06and a Scandinavian minimalist interior. So if you're a driver who doesn't want to choose

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00:03:26Welcome back. Nilay Patel is here.

00:03:27Hello.

00:03:28Joanna Stern. Hello.

00:03:29Hello.

00:03:30We're all in the studio. This is so exciting.

00:03:31I'm here.

00:03:32This makes me so happy.

00:03:33I know. I'm going to look at you or I'm going to look at both of you.

00:03:35Yeah.

00:03:36We have spent like a lot of time in rooms together over the years and not in a very

00:03:40long time. This is very exciting. Okay. Here's how this is going to work.

00:03:44Okay.

00:03:46I want both of you to come with three predictions for 2025 in increasing level of spiciness.

00:03:52Not necessarily like less likely to come true, but like, I want your victory lap for each

00:03:57one to be successively bigger. Does that make sense? Like if you, your third take should

00:04:02be the one that if you're right, you're going to, you're going to tell a lot of people about

00:04:05how you were right.

00:04:06Oh, good.

00:04:07Okay.

00:04:08Okay. So we're going to go around, we're going to talk about them. And then the way that

00:04:11this game plays is after each one of us gives a prediction, we're going to talk about it

00:04:15the other two get to decide if they want to like co-sign that prediction. Uh, at the end

00:04:20of the year you get a point if that prediction comes true, I guess you lose a point if it

00:04:26doesn't because otherwise you should just sign on to all of them.

00:04:28So you can end up with negative points.

00:04:29I think you have to be able to end up with negative points. Uh, so there should be some

00:04:33consequence for picking all of them. So I'm just making up the rules as we go here. So

00:04:38you, you lose a point. We'll do half points. I'm just kidding. You lose a point if you

00:04:43pick a prediction and it's wrong, but you get a point if you pick a prediction and it's

00:04:46right at the end of the year, this episode and the next episode next week, which we're

00:04:50going to do more 20, 25 stuff. We're going to total all the points and whoever wins the

00:04:55verge cast is going to buy you the most cool gadget of 2025. What will it be? How much

00:05:02will it cost? Who knows? But we're going to do this again, a room full of people that

00:05:06does not need help acquiring, I was going to have already bought that. Can I just get

00:05:10the cash value? You can have the cash value is of this prize is one 100th of a cent. Well,

00:05:17it depends. All right. Uh, so this is what we're doing. We're going to make it work.

00:05:21I'm excited about it. Uh, Joanna, you're the guest. You get to go first, but we're

00:05:24going to start small and build up to it. So what is your, what is your mildest prediction

00:05:28for 2025? I have two. Of course you do. Is that what I lose a point already for having

00:05:35to? Okay. I lose a point. It's fine. I'm starting at negative negatives. Okay. It's

00:05:412026 and with the end or at the end of 2025 and I am still posting to 500 different social

00:05:49media accounts because social media is still more fractured. Wait, I have a question. A

00:05:56clarifying question for your prediction. Do you mean Twitter like social media accounts?

00:06:01Yes. Yes. And also because like a tick tock and an Instagram post are different. Actually,

00:06:06this was another one in here. Okay. Tick tock survives. So I'm still posting there. I actually

00:06:11don't post there that often, but maybe I should, maybe I will. Um, so tick tock survives, but also

00:06:17we've got blue sky. We've got threads. We have something else. We've got mastered on

00:06:21point 3.0. We've got X Instagram. I'm just saying that the Twitter Facebook,

00:06:29let's just keep it to the Twitter for this one. I mean, mostly I'm talking about the Twitter

00:06:32likes because there's no chance the short form video ones are going to consolidate

00:06:38like Instagram reels and tick tock. No, no, no. I'm just saying there's more. It's just more.

00:06:42There's just more of them. There was, yes, there, there was, you're, you're yelping for days. This

00:06:46is this, you know, there is years, you know, it was like 2022 where it was like the backlash to

00:06:51social media next year, people are going to spend more time. No, next year we are more on social

00:06:56media and I am still posting every day to 500 different accounts and my AI agent.

00:07:03Are you going to still post it? Also coming, but that my AI agent also that that's one of the

00:07:08things that has to do is, is keep posting. Do you think it's the same set that you're

00:07:12posting to now? There could be more. There's probably going to be more. Okay. So you think

00:07:17the number goes up? I don't think the number goes down and that is my prediction. Okay.

00:07:23That is just not going to get any better. I'm not signing on to this one. Oh,

00:07:28I hundred percent. I'm you're not, I'm what, what goes away? Yeah. What wins?

00:07:33I think that the ability to hit one button and post to multiple Twitter likes will go up and

00:07:41that will, you will experience that as going down. Does that make any sense? Yes, it does. But where

00:07:47am I going to look at all the replies? Probably, probably one of those clients. Cause the whole

00:07:50point of these, except for X, which I will say will probably stubbornly remain in like a walled

00:07:56garden. Everyone else is going to have to pick a way to interoperate. That's a nice solution.

00:08:00Even like your truth socials of the world. He does get the point. And it is true. If,

00:08:04if like, if the Fediverse wins, it counts as one. It's now one. No, but that's the whole point

00:08:10because the Fediverse is many things, but it is one thing. You only have to post to one place

00:08:14and it posts everything to everywhere. That's the whole point of the Fediverse, right? Yeah.

00:08:18So what you're saying is like, these things will come together in such a way that makes it

00:08:22actually more, but feel like less. Yeah. And that will enable more to exist. Right. Which,

00:08:27so I think we're saying kind of the same thing, but you win. I think this,

00:08:30I don't even know how the game works, frankly. Sorry. Cause you gave a solution to my problem.

00:08:36We'll see. I don't know. I don't know what's going to happen. I just know that even you're right. I

00:08:39think both of our things are going to happen. Truth social is a mastodon clone. It's actually

00:08:44very funny. They just copied the open source mastodon code base and the license of mastodon

00:08:50is so restrictive that true social has to publish its own source code. This is a real thing. And

00:08:55they obfuscate it. So now there's like other people who try to un, like clear it up and

00:08:59explain what's going on. It's very funny. All that's very funny. But the point is. I didn't

00:09:03know you were such a truth social user. So. Well, I'm just keeping track of how you would

00:09:07build new social products. And the obvious way to do it is to take the open source projects.

00:09:12So if that's just the way that people begin to build new things,

00:09:16then they're going to interoperate because those things are already built in or operate.

00:09:19I don't know. That's going to play out. There's a, there's like, you know, a greater than nothing

00:09:23chance that blue sky is like, Oh wait, everyone's on blue sky. And they just shut it down and they

00:09:27become a walled garden. I don't think that's going to happen. That's not how they talk.

00:09:30I just don't know what's gonna happen six months from now. But my, my belief, the reason I'm not

00:09:35signing out of this prediction is that just at the user level, you will for the Twitter likes,

00:09:40you'll push a button, post everywhere and collect all the replies in one place.

00:09:43I hope you're right. I don't think I kind of was bundling TikTok in there too, because I

00:09:47wanted one of them to be that like TikTok survives. So I was trying to get everything in one net.

00:09:51Social media is just still a mess and it's fractured and we're everywhere. And we still

00:09:56have a million apps on our phones that we're opening. Yeah. And I'm just making the split

00:09:58between the things that look like Twitter and the video platforms, the video platforms.

00:10:02I agree. We'll proliferate. Let's, let's take TikTok out because we're going to come back to

00:10:06TikTok. I have an odd feeling we're going to come back to TikTok. I'm sure. Okay. So I'm,

00:10:11I'm in on that one with Joanna. Neely's out and is wrong. Neely, what's yours? You go first.

00:10:16It's extremely mild. Okay. This is, we will still have computers. This is like, I didn't put any

00:10:23seasoning on this taco. Do you know what I'm saying? I think when they do the Alexa AI,

00:10:29it will be okay. That's pretty good. That's not as mild a take as it would have been six

00:10:37months ago. Well here, let me explain why. So the stakes for Amazon are so low, right? They're not

00:10:44Google where it has to be good and they have to get it out in the future of all search depends

00:10:50on Gemini. They're not Apple where they're like, look at this glowing idiot and they have to fix

00:10:57it and they are advertising the products against it. They're just like, yeah, this thing that does

00:11:01timers is already in your house. What if it was better? Right. And they have infinity to solve

00:11:08that problem. Like there's no pressure to solve that problem. And I think Panos will wait. I think

00:11:16he's very comfortable waiting to solve that problem. And so that's, that's it. Will he wait

00:11:20till after 2025? My whole prediction is it'll be okay. I'm not saying it'll launch in this year.

00:11:29Huh? I think it'll come in the next year. My second mild was going to be Apple intelligence

00:11:35gets better because it can't get any worse. Yeah. That's also pretty kind of in the exact

00:11:40same fan. Like thing that sucks sucks slightly less. I would counter yours. I think it will get

00:11:46way worse. I think Apple is going to feel the pressure of the other products doing stuff and

00:11:52they are going to try to make it do a bunch more stuff and it can't do those things as we've all

00:11:58already experienced. It's going to feel that pressure. No pressure is coming from Amazon,

00:12:02but they don't have a business based on that pressure. Right. Right. If one person switches

00:12:07from an iPhone to a pixel, because Gemini can do something that's like they have a meeting.

00:12:12Tim Cook is like, everybody get in here. What is going on? Where are our robots? Should we kill

00:12:16our CS? Yeah. It's right. There's a whole thing that happens. It's bad. Amazon is like, what are

00:12:21you going to do? You're going to get a Google assistant. Like you're not like you're lazy.

00:12:24Use it to play, play music and set timers. So that's, that's the mildest friction I have.

00:12:30They will wait. Okay. I could be wrong. It's a pretty mild prediction. I'm actually out on that

00:12:34one. Uh, I think if you had made this prediction in July or like this time last year, I would have

00:12:40been with you. But now I feel like the longer it goes and every new headline that is like, actually

00:12:47the new Alexa sucks. It does feel like the pressure is getting higher. Well, there isn't a

00:12:52new Alexa yet. The new Alexa that they announced over a year ago and haven't shipped. It's like,

00:12:59it's, it's, we know what it is. They told us what it is and then they didn't ship it. And it feels

00:13:03like it has to arrive. That's what I'm saying. It has the best shot. Maybe I'll revise my prediction

00:13:08of all of these. It has the best shot of being okay. It, it, that's probably true. I think I

00:13:13would agree. They have the most ability to wait. Yeah. I do think the new Alexa is going to get a

00:13:17lot of people fired. That's my, that's my other take. Uh, well, that's my thing. I kind of wanted

00:13:24to not be okay. It will be so funny if it's not okay. This is your, can you imagine? Cause they,

00:13:29especially they have this giant install base of like regular people who use these things all the

00:13:33time. That's like the Apple intelligence stuff. It's so funny when you see these things happen.

00:13:37Yeah. I'm actually, I'm with Neil. I, because, well, no, I'm not with you.

00:13:43I'm not with you. I'm not with you because I want it to not be okay.

00:13:47You just want the headlines. Yeah. I think the headlines, we were, you're imagining the video

00:13:51you're going to make about terrible Alexa and you're like, it's much better if it sucks than

00:13:54if it's good. Yeah. We were home for Thanksgiving. And every time my mom set a timer on our Alexa,

00:14:00it played an audio clip from the movie, the wild robot. And she, and she had not seen this movie,

00:14:05Max and I have seen this movie. And so the thing would be like processing beep, boop,

00:14:08bop. And then it would like set the timer. And my mom would be like, what's wrong with Alexa?

00:14:13Wait, Amazon just built that in. It's like a fun thing.

00:14:15Yeah. It's just like every time you do, it's like, it's like processing, like it does the

00:14:19thing that the robot does in that movie. And Max is like losing her mind. She thinks it's

00:14:23the cutest thing in the world. And my mom is like, why is my Alexa so much stupid?

00:14:30Wait, that's actually such a perfect example of why ambient computing is so impossible.

00:14:35What a perfect low stakes example of like, you have to build a thing that makes sense

00:14:39to everyone in the room. And that's so hard to do.

00:14:42Yeah. It was just like, out of context, it made no sense except for the six-year-old was like,

00:14:46I love that movie. Wait, they did, they rolled this out to everyone?

00:14:51They rolled it out to my mom. That's not smart. She didn't turn it on.

00:14:54That's absolutely not smart. I know. Did he, well, I mean, I thought it was delightful.

00:15:00In many ways, my mother's experience of computers is exactly the same as Max's experience of

00:15:04computers in that things happen until they stop happening and then they ask me to fix them.

00:15:09Right. And then I have to deduce what

00:15:10happened here. And I don't know that she ever went and turned on the live robot.

00:15:12I'm going to call my mom and ask her to talk to Alexa with me on the phone today to see if she

00:15:17got this. They have it in the kitchen. That's what it's for. And I'm telling you, they just

00:15:22have to wait. People are going to keep using them as set timers. And then one day they'll be like,

00:15:26your Alexa is way smarter. And then everyone's going to fall in love with their kitchen timer.

00:15:30Okay, David, what's yours?

00:15:31All right. That's a good one. Joanna and I are both out. So we'll see. I'm actually out. Joanna

00:15:36is just crossing her fingers. Mine is that I think this gets milder by the day, I think.

00:15:43Cable TV is going to pretty much totally die in 2025. The idea that you are going to

00:15:50have a cable box through which you get television and it's a bunch of linear channels and that's

00:15:56what you pay a lot of money for and mostly watch is going to be essentially completely out of style.

00:16:01I have a number of follow-up questions.

00:16:05When you say pretty much die, there won't be any anymore?

00:16:10There will be some, but it'll be like the people who still get AOL discs in the mail.

00:16:16Which sustained AOL for years.

00:16:19There are still people who do it, right? It's still a thing that exists.

00:16:22But when you worked at AOL, there are people who are like, you know,

00:16:25this whole company runs on CDs in the mail.

00:16:27Oh, yeah. And there are still, I'm sure,

00:16:29some hundreds of thousands or millions of people who pay for America Online.

00:16:34They pay for their email address.

00:16:35Yeah. And so that, I think, will continue more or less forever. But it's going to die to the

00:16:41extent that it is no longer an interesting business to the companies that run it. The

00:16:47thing that Comcast is doing where it's spinning off all of its cable channels, everyone is going

00:16:51to do that, and they are going to just absolutely run away from cable coverage.

00:16:55Okay, so second follow-up question.

00:16:57Yeah.

00:16:57YouTube TV and Fubo and Sling, your over-the-top cable bundles, are they included?

00:17:04They don't count in this. And I grant that this is, I'm

00:17:10splitting hairs on that one, but they are meaningfully different products.

00:17:14So you're talking about like the Xfinity offering?

00:17:16The box. The box is really the thing, right?

00:17:18Like the Xfinity box, the guy that comes to your house.

00:17:21All right, third follow-up question.

00:17:22The cable that I buy from my internet provider,

00:17:25which is essentially what it is now, is gone.

00:17:28So third follow-up question. You can really tell that it was just my parents' house.

00:17:31They don't have Spectrum boxes anymore. They have an insane Spectrum app on their Apple TVs,

00:17:37which does not, it's not great.

00:17:41It has a grid and it has channels?

00:17:43Yeah, you know what I mean? It's super there.

00:17:45So they're paying Spectrum for those channels.

00:17:47Right.

00:17:48That's everything.

00:17:49And then it is broadly the same as YouTube TV.

00:17:53She can watch it on her iPad wherever she is.

00:17:55So that's like a big win. Does that count?

00:17:58No, but I can't explain why.

00:18:01Oh wait, no, that counts as cable.

00:18:03I think that's a little too broad here.

00:18:05But that's not YouTube TV.

00:18:06Okay, let me say this more. I can be more specific.

00:18:08What are you killing?

00:18:09I'm killing everything except YouTube TV and Hulu with live TV.

00:18:13Okay.

00:18:13I'm killing all of it, except those two things.

00:18:16Okay.

00:18:17I'm super out in this.

00:18:18You're out on this one.

00:18:19I think inertia.

00:18:21Again, not dead, but completely uninteresting to everyone,

00:18:25including the people that run these services.

00:18:27My parents also have an illegal Indian IPTV box that gets every channel for free,

00:18:32including locals and 4k.

00:18:34And they pay for the Spectrum app on their iPads?

00:18:36No, they pay some guy on Venmo over the phone once a year.

00:18:40What?

00:18:41You should write a column. There's an entire economy of these things.

00:18:44Wow.

00:18:44What?

00:18:44Yeah.

00:18:45Okay. That's fantastic.

00:18:47I was going to say this episode is...

00:18:48I think that counts. I think your parents are on my side.

00:18:51I was going to say that...

00:18:52It's very entertaining.

00:18:53The title of this episode was going to be,

00:18:54Neely goes to visit his parents.

00:18:55No, I just blew...

00:18:56It's actually Neely gets his parents arrested.

00:18:59Yeah. No, no. I just blew up the entire Indian uncle economy here.

00:19:03This is what they talk about. They all know a guy. There are scams.

00:19:06It's fantastic.

00:19:07It's great.

00:19:07All right. So Neely's out. Joanna, are you in or out?

00:19:10I'm still not sure I understand. So I'm out.

00:19:12Yes, you do.

00:19:13She thinks traditional cable is going away, except for YouTube.

00:19:15Joanna just keeps getting more cable boxes.

00:19:17By the way, this implies...

00:19:18No, I don't have cable boxes. And my parents don't have cable boxes.

00:19:22I'm just not talking about my parents as much as Eli,

00:19:25because I didn't feel like this was...

00:19:26I love my parents.

00:19:27I love my parents.

00:19:30And they have a lot of the same commonality with...

00:19:32Let's get our parents together. Let's bring our parents to this podcast.

00:19:35Done.

00:19:36No, thank you.

00:19:39But I guess I'm in.

00:19:42Okay, great. Love it.

00:19:44Joanna just picking at random.

00:19:46I am writing these down.

00:19:47Where?

00:19:47Yeah.

00:19:48And I have a doc.

00:19:49Every cable company, except for YouTube TV, is going out of business.

00:19:52Every cable... Not going out of business. Don't...

00:19:54Just irrelevant.

00:19:55People are just not getting them.

00:19:56Are they already irrelevant?

00:19:57Yeah, that's the thing. I think it's already happened.

00:19:58We've been doing this thing where they all invest in streaming

00:20:02and bank the money from cable.

00:20:04That's been happening for a very long time,

00:20:05and everybody thought it was going to happen for a really long time.

00:20:07And then it isn't.

00:20:08And I think it's going to...

00:20:10The speed of that death of the cable money is going to increase so fast

00:20:16that by this time next year,

00:20:18it's going to be essentially a write-off for all of these companies.

00:20:21Literal or figurative.

00:20:22I think a lot of it is still already.

00:20:24Yeah.

00:20:24We're getting there fast.

00:20:25I think that's what we're...

00:20:26All right, let's take a break,

00:20:28and then we're going to get to our medium takes.

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00:21:30then this might be the car for you.

00:21:32You can test it out for yourself at your local Polestar space.

00:21:35Book a test drive for Polestar 3 at Polestar.com.

00:21:42All right, we're back.

00:21:43Spicy time.

00:21:45Let's flip the order.

00:21:47Not spiciest, just spicier.

00:21:49Nilay, you go first this time.

00:21:51What's your most medium prediction for 2025?

00:21:55Medium?

00:21:56Yeah.

00:21:56Walmart buys TikTok.

00:21:58Walmart?

00:21:59Walmart buys TikTok.

00:22:00This is your medium take?

00:22:01Medium.

00:22:02It's just like it's zesty, but you're not...

00:22:05Yeah, I think there's only two...

00:22:07This is like the third question on Hot Ones level of spice is what we're talking about.

00:22:11Okay.

00:22:13Donald Trump has said, I won't shut it down.

00:22:16One of his big benefactors, a major investor in TikTok,

00:22:19but he can't overturn the law that Congress already passed

00:22:22that says TikTok has to go and app stores have to kick it out.

00:22:25So the number of options are very limited.

00:22:28And I don't think that he cares what happens.

00:22:31And I don't think the people on TikTok actually care what happens.

00:22:35Right?

00:22:35As long as TikTok continues to exist.

00:22:37As long as TikTok continues to exist.

00:22:38So there's this very natural out, which is they should sell it,

00:22:41which is the thing the law is sort of designed to force into happening.

00:22:45And then Trump loves a deal, whether or not those deals are real,

00:22:50whether or not LCD factories actually get built.

00:22:53We love talking about deals.

00:22:54So then who are you going to sell it to?

00:22:56Amazon is terrified of TikTok because it's basically QVC.

00:22:59But even then, I think you get some weird antitrust concerns.

00:23:01The other big tech companies will basically say no.

00:23:04So you're kind of stuck with the other big store.

00:23:08That's all TikTok is, is a funnel into TikTok shop.

00:23:11Yeah.

00:23:12And hasn't the biggest sticking point been the algorithm?

00:23:16Yeah, it's like who controls it.

00:23:18Right.

00:23:19And what makes you, what makes you think that ByteDance is going to say,

00:23:22okay, we're giving it all, we'll sell it all.

00:23:25What makes anyone think that people can perceive the quality of an algorithm?

00:23:31Like that was a very important question.

00:23:33Sticky.

00:23:35Like it, when TikTok was growing, this was important, right?

00:23:38Right.

00:23:39Because it was finding you interest.

00:23:40It would like be really, really valuable.

00:23:42And now it's kind of like, yeah, you can make that thing 20% worse

00:23:45and all the people are already on it.

00:23:47Yep.

00:23:47And really all you're trying to get them to do is shop.

00:23:49And we can watch Elon Musk just like dial the Twitter algorithm at will.

00:23:54And it doesn't seem to matter to that audience.

00:23:56So I think there's less danger there than anyone thinks.

00:23:59It does feel anecdotally like the sort of perceived quality gap

00:24:04in like how well the platform knows me

00:24:06between Reels, Shorts, and TikTok has gotten much smaller.

00:24:11Yeah, I agree.

00:24:11Like I think I, for so long, it was like Reels was old TikToks

00:24:17and Shorts was just like over here doing something else that everyone hated.

00:24:21I feel like they're all the same thing now.

00:24:22Yeah.

00:24:22And a bunch of the creators have figured out how to post the same stuff

00:24:25to the same platforms without getting dinged.

00:24:27But this is my medium take.

00:24:28I don't actually know what's going to happen.

00:24:29But if you're going to sell it, which seems like the most likely outcome,

00:24:34because otherwise they have to overturn a law

00:24:36that a bunch of Republican members of Congress passed.

00:24:39It's still hard.

00:24:39Why isn't it Amazon though?

00:24:41I feel like it's Amazon.

00:24:42I think he's right on the antitrust stuff.

00:24:43Because I think Meta and Google and Apple all get mad about this.

00:24:47Yeah.

00:24:49And same for all of those other companies.

00:24:51What if it's Netflix?

00:24:52What if Netflix is just like, what's up?

00:24:53Short form video.

00:24:54We own TikTok now.

00:24:55Yeah, I can see it.

00:24:56I don't think Netflix super wants to be in that business.

00:24:59They don't want to be in a user-generated content business.

00:25:01Netflix is specifically pitting itself against all of those companies.

00:25:04Right.

00:25:05And also, they're not going to convert into Netflix subscriptions,

00:25:10which is the only thing they sell.

00:25:11Right.

00:25:11Walmart's like, here's some garbage.

00:25:13I saw a man on TikTok yesterday trying to sell me a wall-mounted hose reel

00:25:19as an innovation that I should buy for my family for Christmas.

00:25:22And I was like, my dude, my dad bought that shit at Menards in 1982.

00:25:27Like, what are we doing on this platform right now?

00:25:30And that's just where we are on TikTok.

00:25:33It is just a store.

00:25:34Yeah.

00:25:35No, there was a point where my whole entire feed was just hair products.

00:25:39I was like, I already have a hair iron.

00:25:41And you're like, my mom bought these at Menards.

00:25:45My current hair iron that I bought at Menards.

00:25:49Google's Menards.

00:25:49Great sales.

00:25:51Is Menards a real thing?

00:25:52What is Menards?

00:25:53Is this like a Midwest thing?

00:25:54Do we need to talk about this?

00:25:55I gotta stop hanging out with East Coasters.

00:25:57Yeah, this is like the most deeply Wisconsin store in the world.

00:25:59Is that your version of Home Depot?

00:26:01It's superior.

00:26:04It's your version of Lowe's?

00:26:05Home Depot's corporate.

00:26:05Yeah, this is like, I knew Menards when they made their first album.

00:26:08Uh-huh, I see.

00:26:09It's a hipster Home Depot.

00:26:11Home Depot is the chain smokers.

00:26:13I want to be very clear about that, to comparison I'm making here.

00:26:17That works for me.

00:26:18I'm actually in on this one.

00:26:20I like it.

00:26:21I think somebody is going to buy TikTok.

00:26:23Yes.

00:26:23And I feel like Walmart's as good a bet as any.

00:26:25So I'm in on this one.

00:26:26And I just believe TikTok survives.

00:26:29So, sure.

00:26:30That's your medium take.

00:26:31No, that was my like-

00:26:32Yeah, the mild take would have been TikTok survives.

00:26:34That was my mild take.

00:26:35It was like, all the social media survives and we get more.

00:26:38Right.

00:26:39Sure, Walmart seems nice.

00:26:41All right, we're all in.

00:26:42I love it.

00:26:43All right, I'll go next.

00:26:45My medium prediction, which I actually think might be spicier than I realized,

00:26:50is that someone in 2025 is going to make an AI gadget that actually kicks ass.

00:26:55And it's going to be a huge hit.

00:26:56This is your medium.

00:26:57This is my medium.

00:26:58Compared to my mild of Alexa is okay.

00:27:01Yeah.

00:27:02Like, I don't know.

00:27:03It probably won't be the Rabbit R2 or the Humane AI Pin 2.

00:27:09But maybe it's the next Netta Ray-Ban smart glasses that go deep into more AI stuff.

00:27:16Maybe it's like AirPods something.

00:27:20I don't know.

00:27:20Somebody is going to make a gadget that is like explicitly about AI.

00:27:24And it's going to be awesome.

00:27:25And tons of people are going to want it.

00:27:27Okay.

00:27:28Actually, mine is similar to my medium take.

00:27:31But we should all vote on yours first.

00:27:32Okay.

00:27:35No.

00:27:36No?

00:27:36It's not going to happen?

00:27:37What about this Sam and Johnny Ive thing?

00:27:39This is deeply related to-

00:27:40I don't think the Johnny Ive thing is coming out this year.

00:27:41I have three spicy takes.

00:27:43And this is deeply related to one of them.

00:27:45Okay.

00:27:46Well, then you're not going to give it to me.

00:27:47So what was your spicy take that you're-

00:27:49Oh, sure.

00:27:49Yeah.

00:27:49Well, I'll just do it now.

00:27:50I'll just roll this.

00:27:51This is a rebuttal.

00:27:53Yeah.

00:27:53Okay.

00:27:54That's a good order.

00:27:55AI conclusively proven to be a bubble.

00:27:59Okay.

00:27:59It's Bluetooth.

00:28:01It's Bluetooth.

00:28:03Next year, Bluetooth is going to be great.

00:28:04It's Bluetooth?

00:28:05AI is Bluetooth.

00:28:06Everyone talks about it the same way.

00:28:08They make the same lofty predictions about what Bluetooth is going to do.

00:28:11When did they do that?

00:28:13All the time.

00:28:13They were like, these headphones are going to rule.

00:28:15And then you're like, well, Apple had to hijack the entire Bluetooth protocol

00:28:18and make their own Bluetooth that no one else can use.

00:28:21Isn't it more like AI is 5G in that case?

00:28:25Sure.

00:28:25Whatever garbage wireless protocol you want to use.

00:28:30Whatever garbage wireless protocol you want to use.

00:28:32Go for it.

00:28:33Sure.

00:28:34But Bluetooth in particular was like an enabling technology that never panned out.

00:28:39Right?

00:28:39That you would have an ecosystem of products all around you that were all Bluetooth

00:28:44together.

00:28:45The smart home would run on Bluetooth low energy.

00:28:48All that stuff exists.

00:28:49It's there.

00:28:50Yeah.

00:28:50Because that's where I was thinking you were going.

00:28:52You can go to the Bluetooth conference.

00:28:54You can go to the Bluetooth.

00:28:55Can you still?

00:28:55Yeah.

00:28:56The SIG?

00:28:57Do you remember when everybody was obsessed with the retail Bluetooth where you would walk

00:29:04into a store and it was like, it was like Bluetooth, all the coupons on there.

00:29:07Yeah.

00:29:08Yeah.

00:29:08Oh, yeah.

00:29:09They still do that, by the way, just to track you.

00:29:11That is super happening.

00:29:13Every time you walk through the door of a store in the mall, it's like, we found you

00:29:16again.

00:29:16Yeah.

00:29:17And then people wonder why it sounds, seems like everyone's listening to them.

00:29:19No, it's just because you existed with your phone and Bluetooth.

00:29:23Which again, the core benefits of Bluetooth, pretty mild because Apple had to invent their

00:29:29own special Bluetooth to make AirPods work.

00:29:31Okay.

00:29:31Which is what most.

00:29:32I have a lot of feelings about what he's saying.

00:29:33Do you see what I'm saying?

00:29:35AI is on the exact same trajectory as Bluetooth, only 10,000 times more expensive.

00:29:40Okay.

00:29:41There's not one product that is bigger than chat GPT that you can make with AI today.

00:29:46Okay.

00:29:46I'm not with you and I'm not with you.

00:29:48Okay.

00:29:49Then where are you?

00:29:49I'd like that you just keep announcing.

00:29:51Yeah.

00:29:52Where are you?

00:29:52That's my job here.

00:29:54No and no.

00:29:55Where?

00:29:55Mine was just a rebuttal.

00:29:56It's not a prediction.

00:29:57You did your prediction now.

00:29:59Well, but if yours is true, mine can't be.

00:30:01Okay.

00:30:01Right.

00:30:01Because if we get to.

00:30:03That is your spicy.

00:30:03You chose your spicy.

00:30:04That's what you did.

00:30:05That's not your spicy.

00:30:06That's a reject spicy that he's.

00:30:08Oh, so now you are getting two spicies?

00:30:10No, no.

00:30:10That's not a prediction.

00:30:11No point.

00:30:12If AI is a bubble, I get no points, which is I'm giving that up now in order to rebut David,

00:30:17who says the humane pit is going to be.

00:30:19What kind of restaurant is this?

00:30:20You got so.

00:30:22Neil is just sneaking dishes in here.

00:30:24This is my new restaurant called Menara.

00:30:25No, he's saying he made his prediction.

00:30:28There will be a good AI gadget.

00:30:29And I'm saying that requires Bluetooth to be good.

00:30:32Yeah, but now you're going to get two spicy.

00:30:35I'm just explaining why I'm not signing up.

00:30:37Yeah.

00:30:38Okay.

00:30:38I don't, I don't think we're going to get a great AI gadget that everyone buys.

00:30:42Okay.

00:30:43I'm going to, can I do my medium now?

00:30:45Sure, please.

00:30:46So you're both out on mine.

00:30:49I would like to respond to you.

00:30:51Just pick that as your spicy.

00:30:52Cause then we can come back to it.

00:30:53Okay, fine.

00:30:53I'll add that to my spicy list.

00:30:56Pre spicy and appetizer.

00:30:57At Chili's too.

00:31:01Okay.

00:31:02My medium was that Metta releases another pair of the smart, the Ray-Ban smart glasses,

00:31:08but it has a display in it.

00:31:10It's like a heads up display.

00:31:11There's been rumors of this.

00:31:13And I guess the like more spicy version of this is that Metta continues to outpace Apple

00:31:20in the race for smart glasses.

00:31:23Oh, I'm extremely in on that one.

00:31:25I'm like every day I become more radicalized that Metta did this right.

00:31:29And Apple did this wrong.

00:31:32Like the, the story of 2024.

00:31:34I am writing a column about that right now.

00:31:36And I believe that I'm, I love the Ray-Bans.

00:31:38I think the path they are taking is better than the path Apple has been taking.

00:31:43Okay.

00:31:43I agree with Metta continues to outpace Apple.

00:31:46You agree with me on something.

00:31:48I don't think the Ray-Bans are any good.

00:31:49I sent mine back.

00:31:51You probably don't know how to use them.

00:31:52You have a big head.

00:31:53Yeah.

00:31:53You don't know how to use them.

00:31:54That's not, those are different ideas.

00:31:56You can't agree with him.

00:32:00What she said, big head.

00:32:02You have a big head and you don't know how to use them.

00:32:04You're dumb.

00:32:05There's big head, tiny brain.

00:32:06I get it.

00:32:07I understand what you're saying.

00:32:09Yes.

00:32:10Uh, look, all of those things might be true, but I use them.

00:32:13And this is some Apple stuff, right?

00:32:15Where they won't let the photos automatically go to your phone.

00:32:18If you have iOS, they will let you on Android.

00:32:20I think the camera is like just fine.

00:32:22The AI stuff is like extremely medium.

00:32:25I could, I could take the rest of this podcast to show you videos of.

00:32:29All of like the great moments I had with my kids and the Ray-Ban.

00:32:33Well, you're wearing sunglasses.

00:32:34Yeah.

00:32:36Sorry.

00:32:36Do you not wear sunglasses outside?

00:32:38So you're only outside.

00:32:39So you have a, you have a.

00:32:40Inherently limiting.

00:32:41You have a big head, but perfect eyes that are not bothered by the sun.

00:32:45Look, I listened to that Corey Hart song a lot when I was a teenager.

00:32:49And I stopped wearing sunglasses indoors and at night.

00:32:52I spend a lot of time outdoors.

00:32:54Yeah, I'm like.

00:32:55I go running, tubing, skiing.

00:32:59I'm very active.

00:33:00Yeah, yeah.

00:33:01Very active person.

00:33:02I don't do any of those things.

00:33:04That's why transitions are great.

00:33:05The real legacy of the Ray-Ban smart glasses is making transition lenses.

00:33:08No, they did that entire.

00:33:09Yeah, those transition lenses are not good.

00:33:10Those are terrible.

00:33:12Was that in a journal?

00:33:13They did this story about how transitions,

00:33:15the transition lens company was going to take off because of the Meta Ray-Ban.

00:33:18Someone tried to do a story.

00:33:19Really?

00:33:20I thought it was a journal.

00:33:21Someone did a story about how transitions were in now.

00:33:23No, they're terrible.

00:33:24Because of the Ray-Bans.

00:33:25And I got the clear ones with the transitions and I was like,

00:33:27these are still pretty bad.

00:33:29Really bad.

00:33:30And then I boxed the things up and sent them.

00:33:31They definitely still do the thing where you go inside

00:33:33and you still have sunglasses for 10 minutes.

00:33:35There was a kid in my high school that had transition lenses.

00:33:37And you know that is not.

00:33:39Where you're like, big head, tiny brain.

00:33:39And hopefully he's not a VergeCast listener.

00:33:43And every time I see them on the Ray-Bans,

00:33:45I think of him and I'm like, I look like this kid.

00:33:48And he was cool and handsome and is now in the NFL, right?

00:33:50Yeah, I'm hoping he doesn't listen to the VergeCast.

00:33:52I just want to be clear.

00:33:53I agree with the prediction.

00:33:56It could have been you.

00:33:58You could have been the one he broke up for.

00:34:02I agree with the prediction that Meta remains ahead in this category,

00:34:06only because I think Apple will not launch something that is as good as the Ray-Bans.

00:34:10By which I mean, they will have to make something better

00:34:13because the Ray-Bans are just medium.

00:34:15And Apple is a camera company, as Snap wants to say they are.

00:34:20But yes, I agree.

00:34:22I think that's true.

00:34:23I think Apple's likely working on this.

00:34:25And they haven't gotten to the best place.

00:34:26It was the Wall Street Journal, the headline.

00:34:28These glasses were once a style joke, and now they're for cool guys.

00:34:32It's like, no, you're just a bunch of old guys.

00:34:35Oh no, that was in 2024?

00:34:38Oh no, that's wrong.

00:34:39This is right when the Meta came out.

00:34:42That's wrong.

00:34:43Thanks to significant technological upgrades,

00:34:46transition lenses are supposedly suave.

00:34:49Are these once dorky two-in-ones now the ultimate glasses?

00:34:53No.

00:34:53Okay.

00:34:54Did a transition lens write this?

00:35:00It's very good.

00:35:01It's very good.

00:35:04Vogue has a story called transition lenses for now my entire personality.

00:35:12Someone is, like, a big transition is on the case.

00:35:15The transition lens, I don't know how, and I'm still trying to do some reporting on this.

00:35:21If you work at Meta, I want to get in touch.

00:35:24They're working on the heads-up display in a pair of Ray-Bans.

00:35:28I think they'll probably be sunglasses, but maybe, well,

00:35:33they'll probably have to use transition lenses.

00:35:36The display thing is going to be a big swing too, because if that sucks,

00:35:39it actually, it not only doesn't add more appeal, it actually kills a bunch of appeal.

00:35:43Because the thing that's nice about the ones now is they are mostly just sunglasses.

00:35:47Totally.

00:35:47I think they have to do something in between what they've been showing with Orion

00:35:52and what they've been doing with the smart glasses,

00:35:55and that is very basic information in your line of eye.

00:36:00Just show me a text message.

00:36:01Right.

00:36:01That's it.

00:36:02And that's where I think there's going to be AI potential.

00:36:05I don't think that's a killer.

00:36:06I don't think people buy them because they have AI.

00:36:09Okay.

00:36:09So I'm with you a little bit on the, like, these gadgets are going to get better.

00:36:13And I've said repeatedly, the Meta glasses are the best AI gadget you can get,

00:36:17because they're not only about AI.

00:36:19So, okay, wait for you.

00:36:20We're going to move on from this, but the Ray-Bans, it feels like it's,

00:36:23the three things are camera, mic slash speaker.

00:36:28Yep.

00:36:29AI.

00:36:29Rank those three things for you personally.

00:36:31Camera, AI, audio.

00:36:36Interesting.

00:36:36So for me, it's audio first by a mile.

00:36:39Oh.

00:36:39And then camera and then AI.

00:36:41Yeah.

00:36:41Like I love them as like a pair of headphones or for like making calls and stuff like,

00:36:45and, but I've found other people that are like,

00:36:48why would I just want to shout into the air when I have,

00:36:51yeah, I can just wear AirPods.

00:36:52It'll be fine.

00:36:53Neil, I sent his back.

00:36:54So you don't get, you don't think that this is going to run into the,

00:36:57I use it to play music and set timers problem.

00:36:59No, I think it might.

00:37:01But there are, there are worse things.

00:37:06Like smart speakers.

00:37:08We're supposed to do all these things and it's music and timers.

00:37:11And you're like, oh, and then this category kind of just died.

00:37:14And now it's on my face.

00:37:16Yeah.

00:37:17Like, I don't know if there's a worse thing than the,

00:37:19we spent a lot of money to set timers problem.

00:37:22Fair. And I mean,

00:37:24Amazon has been trying to find places to put Alexa on your body for a long time

00:37:27and has not found it.

00:37:28Yeah.

00:37:29So, all right, we're, we're all in on the specific one of

00:37:32meta is going to continue to outpace Apple on glasses.

00:37:34But only because Apple's not going to launch anything.

00:37:36That's my caveat.

00:37:37There are no, this is 2025.

00:37:39So the other bet that you're making inherently in this is that Apple

00:37:42isn't going to launch another thing in 2025.

00:37:44A face thing.

00:37:45I think Apple has, they don't face computers.

00:37:49They're like, okay, we put one computer on your face.

00:37:52Everyone breathe.

00:37:54Let's figure out what our next face computer is going to be.

00:37:57And then we're going to take it from there.

00:37:58Maybe they dropped the price.

00:38:00Of the Vision Pro.

00:38:01Yeah.

00:38:01Yeah. And I'm saying, I don't think they're going to launch

00:38:03another face computer.

00:38:04I don't think so.

00:38:05Next year.

00:38:05Okay.

00:38:05And so, but definitionally in that, I will say that.

00:38:08Yeah. All right.

00:38:08I'm into it.

00:38:09All right.

00:38:09We're going to take one more break and then we're going to do spicy takes.

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00:39:22All right, we're back.

00:39:23Spicy takes.

00:39:25These are the ones, again, there should be a chance that this comes true.

00:39:29But if it does come true, you're not going to shut up about it.

00:39:32Yep.

00:39:33Okay.

00:39:33Good?

00:39:34Everybody feel good?

00:39:35All right.

00:39:36I guess I get to go first this time.

00:39:39My spicy take for 2025 is that everyone is going to give up on matter

00:39:45and bail on the smart home.

00:39:47And we're just going to get to the end of the year

00:39:50and we're going to have like individual smart gadgets and that'll be fine.

00:39:54But this idea of like the big, beautiful interconnected smart home

00:39:57is going to cease to be interesting to almost everybody.

00:40:00Okay, Joanna, do you want to respond to this

00:40:01as someone who just fixed your garage after weeks of effort?

00:40:04Oh yeah.

00:40:05We should talk about this actually.

00:40:07Let's just do a one minute Joanna interlude on the garage

00:40:11because the people do want to know.

00:40:12Okay, can we get a music?

00:40:14Yeah.

00:40:14Get a music track.

00:40:14Just assume there's music playing now.

00:40:16Okay.

00:40:17It's happy, like it needs to be a happy track,

00:40:20like a little bit like whimsical.

00:40:21Like the Six Flags theme song.

00:40:22I will pick the music at a later time.

00:40:25I'm producing.

00:40:26I'm producing.

00:40:27I'm producing right now.

00:40:31It happened.

00:40:33My garage now opens.

00:40:34I can't say it because if I do, my phone will open my garage at home.

00:40:41But when I say, hey, blank, open the garage, it happens.

00:40:48This is after many weeks of texts to Neely

00:40:53who responded three minutes exactly after because he scheduled them.

00:40:58Yep.

00:40:59This is after many weeks of people responding on threads.

00:41:02Thank you to all your listeners.

00:41:06We got a lot of feedback on the garage.

00:41:08Yes.

00:41:09And I would like to apologize.

00:41:09Which ranged from you idiot, this is simple,

00:41:11to this is the hardest problem in the history of the universe.

00:41:14Outright conspiracy theories about Craig Fegarini's garage.

00:41:17Yes.

00:41:17Well, I believe those now.

00:41:21I understand this landscape better than anybody.

00:41:23Yes.

00:41:23Maybe not as well as you.

00:41:26And it is a very hard problem to solve.

00:41:28So those people that call me an idiot, you are actually an idiot.

00:41:33But I just thank you to the listeners.

00:41:34You did it though.

00:41:35I did it.

00:41:36What did you have to do?

00:41:36Oh, we can't.

00:41:37It's too long.

00:41:38It's longer than a minute.

00:41:38Just explain the little adapter that they sent you.

00:41:40Okay.

00:41:41I got the Miros.

00:41:43Miros?

00:41:43What?

00:41:44How do you pronounce it?

00:41:44I think I always say Miros.

00:41:46Miros.

00:41:46Okay.

00:41:46I got the Miros adapter.

00:41:48I get up on a ladder.

00:41:49I sent Neely a picture.

00:41:50I was wearing my Meta Ray bands for both music and for just taking photos and video of it.

00:41:55Therapy.

00:41:56Therapy.

00:41:57I was using the Calm app.

00:41:59Then we should get them as a sponsor.

00:42:01That's a good idea.

00:42:02Yeah.

00:42:03I get up there.

00:42:03I get everything all set.

00:42:06Plug it into the sensor.

00:42:07Put the sensor on the door.

00:42:08This is a whole complicated kind of wiring.

00:42:10Not that.

00:42:11And it doesn't work.

00:42:13And it turns out because my LiftMaster is a newer LiftMaster from 2018.

00:42:19It is using some proprietary protocol to talk to the door opener on the wall.

00:42:24And it will not work.

00:42:25They have DRM'd the garage door button and they have labeled it a security feature.

00:42:33It's very good.

00:42:34They've DRM'd the hardwired garage door button.

00:42:38I guess there was a way I could have known this earlier,

00:42:40but I didn't go through all the support forums to know because my learn button on my LiftMaster

00:42:47is yellow.

00:42:47And it turns out if you have the yellow button, you cannot use this.

00:42:51Then you have a DRM.

00:42:52But Miros, the geniuses at Miros who I've not gotten in touch with,

00:42:58but you are great people.

00:43:00Great people.

00:43:02They made a little adapter, which is really just the opener,

00:43:06like the opener you'd put in your car.

00:43:09It's a hacked opener that connects to the Miros.

00:43:12And so I get it.

00:43:14They sent it to me in the mail.

00:43:15And one week, again, thank you to the people at Miros.

00:43:18Please sponsor this podcast.

00:43:21I just love them.

00:43:22Apparently.

00:43:24They don't have enough money.

00:43:27They're making one hacked garage door a pair of times.

00:43:30One a day.

00:43:31For me.

00:43:32Anyway, they send this to me.

00:43:33I set it up and it works perfectly now.

00:43:36Can I explain what's happening?

00:43:37I'd sent Joanna like a paragraph, excited paragraph of nerd speak.

00:43:42So they're like, okay, we can't push the hardwired button because it's DRM.

00:43:45Yes.

00:43:46But we can take a regular garage door opener that is DRM compatible with this.

00:43:52And we'll just put a wire in the actual button of that garage door opener.

00:43:56Oh, wow.

00:43:56So that when you tell Siri to open the thing.

00:43:59Yes.

00:44:00Our thing will push the button on the garage door opener.

00:44:03So there's just a wire coming out of a garage door opener because that is crazy.

00:44:08Can you imagine Craig Federighi knowing any of this information

00:44:12when he's like the future of AI is my smart home?

00:44:15This is validating my entire prediction.

00:44:18I told you I wouldn't do this and I did not want to go down this route.

00:44:20I just wanted to thank everyone and tell them about my success.

00:44:23She's very proud of herself.

00:44:24I'm very proud of myself.

00:44:25I now have.

00:44:26Can you explain the one other bug that you had to explain to me?

00:44:29Which is perfect.

00:44:30It didn't work right away.

00:44:31And why?

00:44:33Well, that was with.

00:44:34Oh, no, that was with that.

00:44:36It's very good.

00:44:37OK, so I go away.

00:44:39Well, I don't even know.

00:44:39I was I was in L.A. and I set everything up and I thought it's working perfectly.

00:44:44But yet the garage door keeps opening and closing

00:44:47randomly and my wife is texting me saying who is opening and closing the garage door.

00:44:52And I'm like, not me.

00:44:54It should be working.

00:44:55It turns out when I pressed the learn button,

00:44:58it started picking up some signal from someone around the neighborhood.

00:45:01So whenever they opened their garage, it opened my garage, which almost led to divorce.

00:45:09So I had to get a garage guy who then came to the house, helped me fix it.

00:45:15And now it all works perfect.

00:45:17All because you can't be bothered to push the button when you pull into the driveway.

00:45:20But you know what?

00:45:21The amount like this is we need some music.

00:45:25The amount of happiness and true pride I feel now when I pull out of my garage and say,

00:45:32hey, Siri, open the garage door is I may have never felt it before.

00:45:37And then 15 minutes later, it just starts randomly closing and opening on its own.

00:45:41That hasn't happened in at least two weeks.

00:45:45I'm thrilled for you.

00:45:46We really the smart home is getting to the point of

00:45:49humanoid robots to stand in your garage and push buttons.

00:45:52That's by the way, this door bot.

00:45:54Yes.

00:45:54But you could have just put a door bot on the actual garage door button.

00:45:58But just back to what you're saying.

00:45:59This is why I don't think.

00:46:01I mean, I don't think matter disappears.

00:46:04I think we actually see these tech companies double down on it.

00:46:07I think they're all going to start talking about how AI is going to be great for the smart home.

00:46:11And we're going to hear it with that Alexa announcement.

00:46:13It's just like all these things.

00:46:14And this is the dream.

00:46:15And our robots and the house is connected.

00:46:18And none of it is actually really material to real people

00:46:22because they have old shit.

00:46:25And they have different standards.

00:46:27And there's DRM in the freaking button on the wall.

00:46:31And it doesn't work.

00:46:33And I think we're going to hear from Apple this year

00:46:34because they're apparently working on this home tablet.

00:46:37And I think they're going to push matter.

00:46:38And they're going to say.

00:46:39They have to push.

00:46:40They have no choice but to push matter.

00:46:41Right.

00:46:42And no, because they will not get an ecosystem of these devices.

00:46:45And a lot of these devices don't even have matter.

00:46:47Yeah.

00:46:48Anyway.

00:46:49You just think they're going to give up.

00:46:50You think.

00:46:51I don't know that they're going to.

00:46:51I just think everyone is going to stop caring in every like.

00:46:55I think they did stop caring.

00:46:57Maybe.

00:46:57But I like even the companies themselves

00:47:00who have been making these long elaborate bets

00:47:03that eventually the smart home is going to become a thing

00:47:05that is like mainstream useful.

00:47:07I think everybody's just going to start walking away

00:47:08from that next year.

00:47:09It's because it's just not going to happen.

00:47:11Yeah.

00:47:11I mean, when you get a new house.

00:47:13Light switches kick ass.

00:47:14It's probably fine.

00:47:15We've probably solved light switches.

00:47:17I don't know that we need to worry about them anymore.

00:47:18No, enough of the light switches in our house are smart and do things.

00:47:23Yeah.

00:47:24Just all on their own.

00:47:26That actually, once you get used to it, you're like, oh, this rules.

00:47:29Yeah.

00:47:30Right? Like there's one level up.

00:47:32We're like, oh, this is great.

00:47:34My Rube Goldberg machine works really well.

00:47:36It's like a perfectly viable.

00:47:37But it's not a Rube Goldberg machine.

00:47:39It's they're just, I just bought some Lutron casetas

00:47:41and put them in the wall.

00:47:42And now when the sun sets are.

00:47:45How they sponsor this podcast.

00:47:47I don't know.

00:47:47Well, they have so much money that they own a custom slice of RF spectrum,

00:47:51which is why their products work the best.

00:47:53This is a real thing.

00:47:55But I don't know.

00:47:55They want to spend those don't even go on sound black.

00:47:58They just don't go on sale.

00:48:00Yeah.

00:48:00Because they have their own RF spectrum and they are the best.

00:48:03What are you going to do?

00:48:04This is a real thing.

00:48:05They bought their own slice of RF spectrum that Brendan Carr,

00:48:08Trump's new commissioner in the FCC is going to turn over to Elon Musk.

00:48:11When you interview him, I want you to ask about Lutron casetas.

00:48:13Brendan, if you're listening and I know you are.

00:48:16Come on, come on the show.

00:48:18I'll ask you about Lutron casetas.

00:48:19We'd love to have you.

00:48:20Tell me how your garage door works.

00:48:21All right.

00:48:22Do you own a house?

00:48:22I do.

00:48:23You own a house?

00:48:24Yeah.

00:48:25Okay.

00:48:25I was going to say, like, if this is the year 2025 that David buys a house.

00:48:29Actually, a good, a good prediction here, like an ancillary prediction to yours is

00:48:34no one will come up with a smart home idea that compels you, David Pierce,

00:48:38owner of the most garbage TV in America to do any smart home thing.

00:48:43Yeah, I love that.

00:48:44Right.

00:48:45That's the because like I have a whole smart home.

00:48:47It's just doing stuff all the time.

00:48:49And I'm slowly trying to be Neely.

00:48:51Like he's my, he's my mentor of the smart home.

00:48:54Neely has never once described a use case and an amount of work to get to that use case

00:49:00that has ever made sense to me.

00:49:01I just described the garage to you and it is perfect.

00:49:04It's super not good enough.

00:49:07It is so good.

00:49:08What do you mean?

00:49:09I just sat next to you.

00:49:11My wife texted me and said, why is the garage door opening and closing by itself?

00:49:17But then our wives can talk to each other.

00:49:19Not a workable solution to my house.

00:49:21You don't want to build a relationship on that.

00:49:24That's not the foundation of relationship that's good for anyone's marriage.

00:49:27It's bad times all the way around.

00:49:28All right.

00:49:28So you're, you're both out on mine.

00:49:30This is great.

00:49:31Uh, Joanna.

00:49:32I do.

00:49:33I mean, I do believe it's going to be a big topic next year.

00:49:36So that's.

00:49:38I hope so.

00:49:39I mean, to be clear, David's prediction is everyone walks away for matter.

00:49:43That's your specific prediction.

00:49:44I'm out.

00:49:45I don't think they're all in on it.

00:49:46Yeah, they can't.

00:49:47They have nothing else to do.

00:49:48I wish.

00:49:49I mean, I don't wish I don't.

00:49:50Anyway.

00:49:51Okay.

00:49:51My spicy one.

00:49:53The Mac gets a touch screen.

00:49:56We've done this like every year.

00:49:57Every time we've done predictions together, someone has done this.

00:50:00I know.

00:50:00And we'll go.

00:50:01I think I was trying to find the verge cast transcripts of the time I predicted and I

00:50:05can't find it, but I believe I said by the end of 2024, I think the last time we did

00:50:10this, we, we set timelines and we were all wrong.

00:50:12We were Dieter was on the, on the podcast.

00:50:14Yeah.

00:50:15And, um, but I, I, I, I think we are coming towards that time.

00:50:21One day we will get there.

00:50:22And I, I think.

00:50:23Is it just a Mac as you currently imagine it, but it's a touch screen or does it change

00:50:29more meaningfully than that?

00:50:31They'll have to do something.

00:50:32What do they do?

00:50:35I don't know.

00:50:36Does it run iPad apps?

00:50:38It already runs like.

00:50:40Like, does it just get the iPad app store natively?

00:50:42No, I think they just keep it that way.

00:50:44Okay.

00:50:46I'm just looking at these touch targets being like, eh, I don't really want to poke my menu.

00:50:51But yeah, I don't think they do it until I know why they're doing it.

00:50:53And I don't know that they even know why they make the iPad, right?

00:50:58Do you like the, uh, the iPad as an application environment?

00:51:01They're not like, here's why they're just like, well, that keeps happening.

00:51:05And I don't think they're going to add cost and complexity to the Mac, unless they have

00:51:08like a great reason to do it.

00:51:11Reason to do it.

00:51:12And they seem to be selling enough Macs.

00:51:15I'm walking this all the way back because I thought the last time we did this, I thought

00:51:20that they had reached a point with the Mac and the iPad where bringing them closer together

00:51:24was the only choice.

00:51:25Yep.

00:51:26And they have not only resisted that they've pulled them further apart to the point where

00:51:30everyone's just like, turn this iPad into a Mac.

00:51:33I think Apple Silicon changed that.

00:51:36Like, I think if, if Apple hadn't solved like laptop processing, it would have been

00:51:42different and the Macs would have started to look more like the iPads and vice versa.

00:51:47But now like the, the Mac lineup is easily the best it's ever been.

00:51:52Yeah.

00:51:53And is so compelling to so many people.

00:51:55Like, yeah, I, I tend to agree.

00:51:57I, I years ago would have thought that eventually the MacBook and the iPad in particular would

00:52:02eventually be the same product.

00:52:04I don't think that anymore.

00:52:05I, I, the spicy follow-up, whatever that is, the dip, the condiment, hot sauce.

00:52:14If, if you could turn your Mac into an iPad and gain touchscreen support, or you could

00:52:21turn your iPad into a Mac and lose touchscreen support, which one would you, which one would

00:52:26you pick?

00:52:27I can take my Mac.

00:52:29What was the first option?

00:52:29So you have your Mac sitting right here and I can push a button and be like, now this

00:52:33is an iPad and you get a touchscreen.

00:52:34And I can take the screen off.

00:52:35No, whatever.

00:52:36It's, it's just that they can run iPad apps, but it has a touchscreen.

00:52:39It's an iPad.

00:52:40And the other one is you got an iPad and a keyboard case and you're like, boom, hit a

00:52:43button.

00:52:44It runs Mac OS, but the touchscreen stops working.

00:52:46It's that, I guess.

00:52:48See what I'm saying?

00:52:48I want a dockable iPad much more than I want a touch Mac.

00:52:52Yeah.

00:52:53Yeah.

00:52:53And there's a bunch of stuff you have to do.

00:52:55Like it would have to essentially like run the two operating systems side by side.

00:53:00No, I'm saying I'm, I'm, I'm making this hardcore.

00:53:03Okay.

00:53:04You push the button.

00:53:05This is now runs iPad OS.

00:53:07Yeah.

00:53:07With a touchscreen.

00:53:08With a touchscreen.

00:53:09It's a Mac.

00:53:10But then when you run Mac OS, it disables the touchscreen.

00:53:13No, it doesn't run Mac OS.

00:53:14I'm saying this just becomes an iPad or you can take your iPad and you can run Mac OS

00:53:20and it disables the touchscreen.

00:53:21Which one?

00:53:22Definitely an iPad with Mac OS.

00:53:23See what I'm saying?

00:53:24And I think this is, this is just the end of the argument, I think for a long time.

00:53:28Cause they don't know why any, they don't know why any of these products have touchscreens.

00:53:32Right.

00:53:33Except for the iPhone.

00:53:34I know why the iPhone has a touchscreen.

00:53:36They have not yet solved the problem of why the iPad has a touchscreen.

00:53:38So maybe I'm changing mine to that.

00:53:40The iPad can run Mac OS.

00:53:43Yeah.

00:53:44That's the only rational answer.

00:53:45But that to me, it seems to the same thing.

00:53:46Mac gets a touchscreen.

00:53:48Still Mac OS getting a touchscreen.

00:53:50I'll give you both as one prediction that one of those two things will happen.

00:53:53That the, the, the Mac.

00:53:55I mean, it's really, it's like the Venn diagram of the Mac and the iPad smashed into each other.

00:54:00I think they have figured out they can sell a lot of both and they don't have to solve this

00:54:03problem and there's no pressure on them to solve the problem until there's some sort of windows

00:54:08tablet or Android tablet that provides an ounce of competition to the iPad.

00:54:13And I know, like, I know there are windows tablets and people like them and the surface

00:54:16exists and that's a whole thing.

00:54:17They're not competition to the iPad.

00:54:19They're competition to the Mac book to the Mac.

00:54:21Yeah.

00:54:21Until there's one sliver of competition for the things that people use iPads for,

00:54:26they are just going to stay exactly the way they are.

00:54:29I totally agree.

00:54:30Yeah.

00:54:31I was at my other.

00:54:32You can't talk yourself out of your own.

00:54:34No, I really want that to happen.

00:54:35That's why it's spicy and that's why it's there.

00:54:37But my other spicy was going to be that Tim Cook steps down and then they,

00:54:41the Mac gets the touchscreen.

00:54:42Ooh, Tim Cook can't step down.

00:54:44I don't think that's president.

00:54:45I know.

00:54:45It's like, it's on.

00:54:46He's got to call him every day and be like, I need you to not do these tariffs.

00:54:49No, I think that you understand what I'm saying, Donald,

00:54:51that this time you cannot do tariffs.

00:54:52You like your iPhone, right?

00:54:54I can turn that off.

00:54:55No tariffs.

00:54:56And he's just got to do that every single day.

00:54:58Yeah.

00:54:59Last but not least, Neil, I, what is your spiciest prediction?

00:55:03Oh, this is wild.

00:55:04Full spice.

00:55:05This is wild.

00:55:05Hit me with it.

00:55:06Google breaks itself up.

00:55:11Okay.

00:55:12They're just like, you know what?

00:55:13This is not working that anymore.

00:55:15We're just going to, we're going to, we're going to spin off our own companies.

00:55:18Okay.

00:55:19This is the opposite of merger mania, which is a thing.

00:55:23Big companies do to create shareholder value.

00:55:26Sure.

00:55:27When they're out of ideas, I think Google is just going to look at the marketplace

00:55:31and say that we're under a lot of regulatory pressure.

00:55:34And you know what?

00:55:35If we just spun off YouTube, just put it over there, signed a big lucrative AI

00:55:41training data deal for Google AI and let this thing go be cable, the future of

00:55:46cable television and compete with Tik TOK and whatever, and we'll, that'll go public

00:55:52and the stock will go up and Google stock will go up and everyone's stock will go up.

00:55:56And that's all anybody cares about.

00:55:58You can make the argument today, absent the antitrust pressure.

00:56:02And you get to take YouTube away from the antitrust pressure and the regulatory

00:56:06pressure because now it's just YouTube.

00:56:07Does that solve Google's antitrust problems though?

00:56:09I have no idea.

00:56:10This is my spicy take.

00:56:11Okay.

00:56:12But like, does that solve the scrutiny of Chrome and the ad?

00:56:15Right.

00:56:15So all that's noise, right?

00:56:17It doesn't solve those problems.

00:56:18It just takes YouTube away from them.

00:56:22And it lets Google say, we've made ourselves smaller and less powerful because now the

00:56:27second most powerful search engine on the internet doesn't belong to us anymore.

00:56:30It's over here.

00:56:30It's YouTube.

00:56:31And we can, you know, the fact that we all work together and we're friends and

00:56:33sometimes I call each other on the phone and who knows what messaging app we're

00:56:36using to communicate because we want, not only delete all of our records, we have

00:56:40too many messaging apps for you to even see.

00:56:42There's a, that's the spiciest take is Google solves this problem.

00:56:46The way that big conglomerates solve this problem.

00:56:49What if Google does all of its like secret messaging, just on Allo because they know

00:56:54no one is paying attention, like no lawyer would ever think to like subpoena the Allo

00:56:59messages.

00:57:01So that's just where Google is now.

00:57:03They're just like one of their, this is why they've had so many.

00:57:05Right.

00:57:06It's a long game.

00:57:07Was Allo before chat or meet?

00:57:09No, it was after.

00:57:10Allo was with Duo.

00:57:11They launched Allo and Duo together.

00:57:13And Allo was the first one that was like, we're going to put AI inside of your chats.

00:57:17So when you say, do you want to go to the movies?

00:57:19It's like, oh, would you like to buy movie tickets?

00:57:22And that was a super good idea that everyone liked.

00:57:25And it went really well for Google.

00:57:28That was 10 years ago.

00:57:30Yeah.

00:57:31The number of Dieter bone, we have sorted out Google's messaging strategy stories that

00:57:35we've written.

00:57:37Here it is.

00:57:38Here's the plan by Dieter.

00:57:41None of them came to pass.

00:57:42That's my spiciest take.

00:57:43That's pretty good.

00:57:45I'm out on that one.

00:57:46Yeah.

00:57:46Don't.

00:57:49I think, I think if you had said to your point, if I get, if I'm right, no, everyone will know

00:57:54you'll never hear the end of this.

00:57:56Yeah.

00:57:56You, they have to make you the CEO of YouTube.

00:57:59If you're right now, officially they have to do it.

00:58:02Yeah.

00:58:03I think, I think if you had said Google breaks up in 2025, I might've thought long and hard

00:58:09about signing on, but Google does it of its own volition.

00:58:12That's why it's, I love it.

00:58:13Someone breaks up Google.

00:58:15Yeah, fine.

00:58:16It's we're headed that way.

00:58:17Google itself is like, you know what?

00:58:19This is really hard.

00:58:21Yeah.

00:58:21Just YouTube.

00:58:22You go have fun.

00:58:23Create some shareholder value.

00:58:26It's for the good of the people.

00:58:27Yeah.

00:58:28All right.

00:58:28This is great stuff.

00:58:29All right.

00:58:29Let me review.

00:58:29Then we're going to get out of here.

00:58:31Joanna's predictions.

00:58:32Her mild prediction is that a year from now, we're all still going to be posting to a million

00:58:37social accounts.

00:58:38I'm in on that.

00:58:39And he lies out.

00:58:40Your medium take is that meta is going to continue to outpace apple on glasses.

00:58:44Neil and I are both in.

00:58:46And your spicy one is that the touchscreen Mac and the iPad with Mac OS, some smashing

00:58:52together thing is going to happen there.

00:58:54Neil and I are both out.

00:58:56I hope to, the one I most hope I'm wrong about is that one, because I want that to happen

00:59:00so bad.

00:59:01If that happens and we're at an event together, I will stand up and cheer.

00:59:06I deservedly so.

00:59:07That will be a good victory lap.

00:59:08Like imagine if apple had made a television, how insufferable Gene Munster would have been

00:59:13like, that's what I want for you.

00:59:14I have never clapped at an apple event.

00:59:16I believe the, sorry, I would take that back.

00:59:19I believe I might've clapped when they announced multiple timers and I've never, ever clapped

00:59:24at an apple event other than that.

00:59:25But I will clap.

00:59:28I will.

00:59:28But then you have to say out loud, to be clear, I'm clapping for myself.

00:59:33Journalism.

00:59:36I love it.

00:59:37All right.

00:59:37Neil's predictions.

00:59:38The mild prediction.

00:59:39Alexa is going to be fine.

00:59:41Yeah.

00:59:42I even put the ellipsis in here.

00:59:43It's going to be fine.

00:59:44Fine.

00:59:44It's fine.

00:59:45I'm out.

00:59:45And Joanna's out.

00:59:47That's rough.

00:59:48I think it's probably true, but I'm hoping I'm betting against.

00:59:51The medium take is Walmart is going to buy TikTok.

00:59:53Strangely, Joanna and I are both in on this.

00:59:55I love it.

00:59:57And the spicy take is that Google breaks itself up.

01:00:01We are not in.

01:00:02I'm giving you all versions of breakups, even though you specified YouTube.

01:00:07I think.

01:00:07Go any, any.

01:00:08Google breaks itself up in any meaningful way is spicy enough that I'm giving you the

01:00:11whole thing.

01:00:12As long as it's by its own volition.

01:00:13Correct.

01:00:13Okay.

01:00:14That's nice.

01:00:15And Joanna and I are both out.

01:00:18But that means I will take any little thing.

01:00:22Yep.

01:00:22Right.

01:00:22Because Google is also alphabet.

01:00:25That's right.

01:00:25So if Waymo.

01:00:27Right.

01:00:27If they're.

01:00:27Yeah.

01:00:28Like Waymo.

01:00:29Waymo's not part of Google.

01:00:30It's part of alphabet.

01:00:32And I don't think that's ridiculous.

01:00:36You have to decide.

01:00:37No, I'm still out.

01:00:39And I'll still give it to you.

01:00:40Okay.

01:00:40Any alphabet company, but not one of the stupid moonshots that loses billions of dollars.

01:00:45I'll give you Waymo.

01:00:46That's basically the only other one I'm willing to give you.

01:00:48Fine.

01:00:50My predictions are my mild prediction is that cable TV is going to pretty much totally die.

01:00:56Neal is out.

01:00:56Joanna's in.

01:00:58I still don't know what that means.

01:00:59I'm in.

01:01:00If, if the most generous reading is like we stopped talking about.

01:01:03If I just, if I just make it.

01:01:05The cable box business is dead and boring.

01:01:10Would you be into it?

01:01:10Yeah, because it's already true.

01:01:12We should all just take the point today.

01:01:14It's not true.

01:01:15It's boring already, but it's not dead.

01:01:19And, and I think it, it, it got boring faster than anybody expected.

01:01:22And I think it's going to get dead faster than anybody expects.

01:01:25I think our minority investor Comcast requires me to tell you that the Xfinity X1 box is cool.

01:01:33Also disclosure, Neal, I produced a Netflix show.

01:01:37Something.

01:01:38Subscribe to the verge.

01:01:39I don't know.

01:01:39It's pretty, it's pretty good.

01:01:41Yeah.

01:01:42All right.

01:01:42Do you want to end on this one?

01:01:43This is your last chance.

01:01:44Yeah, I'll take it.

01:01:45Keep in mind that I'm deciding.

01:01:46Yeah, I know.

01:01:47You're going to give yourself this point somehow and it's like, fine.

01:01:49All right.

01:01:50Neal is in, Joanna's in.

01:01:52My medium take is that someone is going to make an AI gadget that actually kicks ass.

01:01:57You're both out.

01:01:58And my spicy take is that the industry and the world are going to collectively give up on matter.

01:02:03And you're both out.

01:02:04Out.

01:02:05Super out.

01:02:05Love it.

01:02:06All right.

01:02:07I think a thing that I don't understand is how many points have we all potentially signed up for?

01:02:10I don't understand this game at all.

01:02:12Who's to say?

01:02:12I got 12 months to figure out the answer to that question.

01:02:15What do you win?

01:02:16If you win.

01:02:16I'm saying if Google breaks itself up, I win.

01:02:19Whatever that is.

01:02:20If I call that one, right.

01:02:21And Google does a voluntary spin of YouTube.

01:02:22Should there be more points for spicier takes?

01:02:25Yes.

01:02:25But if, yeah, he had so many spicy takes and then he also had that spice.

01:02:29I think that should be disqualified.

01:02:31Joanna's so mad at how much you got to talk.

01:02:33I've already.

01:02:34The AI means nothing.

01:02:36And AI is a failure.

01:02:37Well, it was your other one.

01:02:38Yeah.

01:02:38Bubble bubble pops.

01:02:39No, that's not on the list.

01:02:41You know, I doesn't get to have that one.

01:02:42Yeah.

01:02:42Okay, good.

01:02:43That's just.

01:02:44AI is Bluetooth.

01:02:47Yeah, Bluetooth.

01:02:48That's too spicy for this podcast.

01:02:50It's funny because Bluetooth like never had a bubble that popped.

01:02:52Everyone was just kind of like, yeah, it's just not happening.

01:02:56I think a lot of people think Bluetooth happened.

01:02:59Do you find one person who thinks Bluetooth happened?

01:03:02Like in the way that people thought it would happen.

01:03:05Right.

01:03:06Bluetooth happened in the sense that it's here and you use it.

01:03:08Right.

01:03:09Sometimes it works in your car and some people have one of those UE boom speakers.

01:03:15But like.

01:03:16And that's it.

01:03:16Is there a hundred billion dollar Bluetooth startup out there?

01:03:19Like probably not.

01:03:22If that is you, please email me.

01:03:25Like Bluetooth was at the point where they're like meaningful Bluetooth security threats.

01:03:29Yeah.

01:03:29Remember there's like blue snarfing.

01:03:33Yeah, I do.

01:03:33I think there was a whole CES where it was really just.

01:03:36Bluetooth stuff.

01:03:37Bluetooth stuff.

01:03:38The happy fork.

01:03:40Yep.

01:03:40Bluetooth.

01:03:41It just didn't happen.

01:03:42Yeah.

01:03:42I mean, but some of it really did happen.

01:03:44I once sat through an entire press event where they told me that they would combine Bluetooth

01:03:49and Wi-Fi so that you would use Bluetooth to pair to a gadget that would then provision it for Wi-Fi.

01:03:54And then you would get the best of both worlds.

01:03:55Look at Apple's whole strategy.

01:03:56And maybe that sort of worked and maybe it exists.

01:03:58It did not.

01:03:59I know that you want to say like, okay.

01:04:00Yes, Apple added their things to Bluetooth to make it better.

01:04:04Clearly.

01:04:05But AirPods.

01:04:06Right.

01:04:07They made up a fork Bluetooth and layered it on top of Bluetooth and no one else gets to use it.

01:04:11But without Bluetooth.

01:04:12And their entire explanation for why they have locked down the what's it now they're on like

01:04:18the H2 chip.

01:04:19Yep.

01:04:20Is because Bluetooth isn't good enough.

01:04:21So they had to make their own Bluetooth.

01:04:23There's Bluetooth in there.

01:04:24Apple would love to get rid of Bluetooth and just connect the Apple devices to the Apple head.

01:04:29Watch.

01:04:29I mean, these are massive businesses that Bluetooth were.

01:04:32I get what you're saying.

01:04:33Apple made a set of proprietary extensions to Bluetooth in order to make those things happen.

01:04:37There's a Bluetooth underpinning.

01:04:39All right.

01:04:40And maybe one day there'll be an AI underpinning.

01:04:42I'm giving us all.

01:04:44AI is Bluetooth is a take.

01:04:46We're all in.

01:04:47AI is not Bluetooth.

01:04:50The bubble will pop on AI is actually the thing.

01:04:52And I'm just making a comparison.

01:04:53I'm saying, okay, AI is Bluetooth.

01:04:55We're all in.

01:04:55In a specific comparison.

01:04:57So we're not putting that in.

01:04:58That's not even a spicy cake.

01:05:00It's not allowed.

01:05:01And all that's going to happen is we're going to we're going to be here next year.

01:05:03We're going to talk about this take.

01:05:04And someone's going to say, well, it'll be better next year,

01:05:06which is all they ever said about Bluetooth.

01:05:08That's the only comparison that makes.

01:05:11I like it.

01:05:12All right.

01:05:12We're going to do one more of these next week.

01:05:14We have some other fun 2025 prediction stuff to do.

01:05:17But for now, we're done.

01:05:19Thank you all.

01:05:20Appreciate you guys doing this with me.

01:05:21That's me.

01:05:21I already won.

01:05:24All right.

01:05:24That's it for the broadcast today.

01:05:26Thank you to Nilay and Joanna for playing this very silly game with me.

01:05:29And thank you, as always, for listening.

01:05:31There's lots more on, frankly, all of the stuff we've been making predictions about

01:05:36all over theverge.com.

01:05:37I'll put some links in the show notes as many as I can think of.

01:05:40But keep it locked on the website.

01:05:42Clearly 2025 is going to be a year.

01:05:45We have a subscription now.

01:05:46Fun time to subscribe to The Verge.

01:05:47There's just a lot that is coming.

01:05:49And as always, check out the homepage.

01:05:51It's free.

01:05:52It's awesome.

01:05:52Have a peek.

01:05:53And if you have thoughts, questions, feelings, or other predictions for 2025 you'd like to

01:05:58get off your chest, you can always email us at vergecastattheverge.com or call the hotline

01:06:02866-VERGE11.

01:06:04We truly love hearing from you.

01:06:06Thank you to everybody who's called in with questions for the meta hotline that's running

01:06:09on Tuesday.

01:06:10Tons of fun stuff.

01:06:11That's a really fun episode.

01:06:12Really enjoyed doing that.

01:06:13And if you have more questions, keep them coming.

01:06:15We have a backlog of really, really fun ones.

01:06:17We have plans to do stuff with.

01:06:19Hit me up.

01:06:19I'm ready for it.

01:06:20This show is produced by Liam James, Will Poor, and Eric Gomez.

01:06:23Vergecast is Verge Production and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.

01:06:26We'll be back on Tuesday with the meta episode that we've been talking about for a while,

01:06:30and then back to our regularly scheduled programming for a couple of weeks before the end of the

01:06:34year.

01:06:35We'll see you then.

01:06:35Rock and roll.

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