مدي 1 تي في : رامي القليوبي يقدم قراءة في الموقف الروسي مما يحدث في سوريا - 09/12/2024
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00:00Welcome again, we will continue our discussion in the second part about the developments of the Syrian scene.
00:11Joining us now from Beirut is Amid Rukn Maroun Kheresh. Welcome, sir.
00:17And from Moscow, we welcome the political analyst and academician, Mr. Rami Al-Qaliouby. Welcome.
00:30Welcome.
00:33I will start with you, Mr. Rami Al-Qaliouby, in the second part.
00:38Moscow, in its turn, said that it was surprised by what happened in Russia, or in Syria,
00:47and the situation in that region.
00:52It was said that Bashar Al-Assad's reception was the decision of President Vladimir Putin,
00:59his personal decision, that he does not intend to meet Al-Assad.
01:05And also, Russia emphasizes the importance of not touching its military bases.
01:16Bring us closer to the details and explain to us this Russian position in all its dimensions.
01:27Of course, there is an impression that these dramatic events in Syria
01:36have suddenly formed a burden on everyone, including Moscow,
01:41and perhaps even on the opponents themselves and their leaders, the Turks,
01:46who did not expect Al-Assad's authority to collapse so quickly.
01:51And in Russia, there is an impression that a case of shock occurred against the Kremlin,
01:57and in fact, two days after the fall of Al-Assad,
02:02a speech was issued in the name of Russian President Dmitry Peskov,
02:06to declare his first comments on him,
02:09and he confirmed that this decision to receive Al-Assad and grant him asylum in Russia
02:15was a personal decision taken by Putin.
02:18He also confirmed that the future of Russia's presence in Syria
02:23will be a subject for serious discussion with the new authorities.
02:28Yesterday, there was a written statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry
02:34confirming the continuation of the presence of Russian individuals on the Syrian coast.
02:40Therefore, there is an impression that a kind of agreement was reached
02:46between Russia and the opposition factions, perhaps through the Turkish embassy,
02:51which guaranteed the safety of these bases,
02:54and perhaps even the continuation of their presence,
02:57so that Moscow would have a place in the warm waters of the Mediterranean Sea.
03:02Perhaps the condition of not participating in any actions within the Syrian territory
03:08and the Russian-Turkish relations are divided by a degree of pragmatism.
03:13Okay, Mr. Rami Al-Qayyubi, there are many questions.
03:17There are many questions about how Moscow abandoned its ally, Damascus, so easily.
03:26Of course, we followed, years ago, 13 or 14 years ago,
03:34how Russia supported Bashar al-Assad's regime.
03:37Today, you say that it was a surprise, that it abandoned him,
03:41and that it did not help him, of course, in the 11-day war.
03:47You welcome him, you say that it welcomed him with humanity.
03:51After the analysis, it turned out that it will be the paper that Moscow negotiates with,
03:57in order not to touch its military bases there, in Syria.
04:02In fact, it is true that there was great Russian support for Syria,
04:10specifically in 2013, when Russia actually stopped the American strike on Syria
04:17because of the use of chemical weapons in the Eastern Ghouta.
04:21Then, in 2015, Russia directly intervened militarily to support Assad.
04:29But since then, the geopolitical situation has changed.
04:33First, Russia is now engaged in its war with Ukraine.
04:37Now, Russia's priority is to prevent progress on the fronts in eastern Ukraine,
04:43so that it is in a strong position at the time of negotiations with Trump
04:47after he handed over power to the White House.
04:51Also, Russia is suffering logistical difficulties in Syria,
04:55after the closure of Turkey, the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles,
04:59in front of the Russian warships.
05:01So, in fact, Russia was not forced to send reinforcements to Syria on the eve of the conflict,
05:07and even if it wanted to, it was in need of them in Ukraine.
05:13Perhaps the most prominent change that took place is not related to Russia, but to Iran,
05:18because, in fact, the confrontation with Israel, with the help of Hezbollah,
05:23led to the separation of Tehran and Hezbollah.
05:27As for the Syrian army, it was separated after 13 years of fighting.
05:33So, in fact, when Russia stopped providing some air cover for the forces on the ground,
05:41there were no forces on the ground.
05:45But Russia's mission was not to wage a civil war for Assad.
05:51Now we have Amid Rukn Maroun Kheresh from Beirut.
05:58Welcome, sir.
06:02We would like to ask you, sir, Kheresh,
06:07if you can read the Syrian scene after the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime,
06:14and specifically the security challenges inside and outside,
06:19as well as the security challenges from the point of view that the authority has become in the hands of many armed opposition factions.
06:27Will it be resolved?
06:29Is it possible to remain under the banner of one regime army?
06:34What are the challenges with the neighbors,
06:38especially in light of what Israel has done in recent days,
06:43from occupying vast areas of the Golan Heights to the Quneitra?
06:50Yes, the world agreed.
06:54It was busy with the Israeli war on Gaza and Lebanon.
06:59The world suddenly agreed, on the day of the ceasefire,
07:03to advance the militias.
07:08They claim to be the Free Army and the like.
07:14But the militias first approached Aleppo,
07:19and took Aleppo in a dramatic way,
07:23without fighting and without anything.
07:27They advanced from Aleppo towards the south, towards Homs,
07:32and also moved from the south towards the capital.
07:37Yesterday, the capital fell,
07:40and President Bashar al-Assad had to secretly fly to Moscow.
07:52They accepted their political asylum for humanitarian reasons.
08:04What is happening now in the Syrian area?
08:07Several organizations have been suppressed under the Shia Liberation Organization.
08:14These militias were prepared by the United States,
08:22and were a terrorist organization.
08:25The United States now says that the channels of communication with these militias are open.
08:38There are 24 bases for the US military,
08:44and 4 border stations with Iraq for the US military.
08:51There are about 3,000 US soldiers in Syria.
08:58There are also 2 Russian bases in the west, on the Mediterranean, for Russia.
09:07There is an air base in Hameim, and a naval base in Ladoga.
09:13Russia, the enemy that was bombing these militias yesterday,
09:23said that today it will open the channels of communication with them
09:31to discuss the situation on the ground.
09:36What appears on the ground, Madam,
09:40is that these militias are not organized,
09:46they are not an army.
09:48They occupied the capital, the Ministry of Defense, Bashar al-Assad's palaces, etc.
09:56It is as if these militias came for loot.
10:00And now they are setting fire to Damascus' squares,
10:06claiming that they were able to attack Bashar al-Assad.
10:11Are you afraid, are you approaching the issue with a kind of pessimism,
10:18and do you consider that it will not be a matter of uniting,
10:26and that there will be a transition of power?
10:30Where does optimism come from?
10:32If a revolution calls for democracy,
10:38I am not with Bashar al-Assad, nor with his government.
10:42But this miserable Syrian people,
10:47who suffered for 50 years under the rule of Bashar al-Assad,
10:51today comes the revolution and wins,
10:54and there are no obstacles.
10:57It is too early.
11:00We are in the first days of the revolution.
11:04There are no indicators.
11:07The only indicator is the meeting today.
11:10And the announcement of Mohamed al-Bashir.
11:13Yes, and the commissioning of Mohamed al-Bashir,
11:16who was a member of the government,
11:19which was controlled by the Levant Liberation Movement, in Idlib.
11:25And now he is in charge,
11:30with Al-Jalali and Ahmad al-Muallim,
11:35he is in charge of forming a government.
11:40And this is a good thing.
11:42Okay, Mr. Al-Muashir, I will come back to you.
11:46The call of the Syrian soldiers,
11:50all the Syrian soldiers,
11:52they did not learn from what happened in Iraq,
11:56when the Americans occupied Iraq.
11:59What happened?
12:01They dissolved the Iraqi army.
12:04If the Syrian army is dissolved,
12:07it will take a long time to gather the Syrian army.
12:12Of course, this is the point we touched on last time.
12:18Israel.
12:20Excuse me, go ahead.
12:22I will come back to you later.
12:26Again, with Mr. Omar Yaldarim.
12:29The Arab deal with the new situation in Syria,
12:34how do you expect the situation to be from what is happening
12:40and from this transfer of power?
12:45At the beginning, there was a shock from the Arab countries,
12:50specifically the neighboring countries, Iraq,
12:53which tried to close the borders
12:57to prevent the entry of the people's hajj militias
13:01and forced them to enter this context.
13:03Jordan, which was led by King Abdullah II.
13:07Also, a meeting of the National Security Council in Jordan, in Amman.
13:12Saudi Arabia, which also met in Qatar with Doha,
13:18with the members of SANA, Russia, Iran,
13:21in addition to Turkey,
13:24in addition to some opposition members,
13:26including the Qatari delegation.
13:28Also, a visit to Abu Dhabi,
13:33three days before the fall of the regime,
13:35Bashar al-Assad was in Abu Dhabi
13:37in an attempt to convince the Arab parties.
13:40A year before the fall of the regime,
13:43Bashar al-Assad returned to the Arab League.
13:45This was his last breath,
13:48which brought him back to life once again.
13:52However, it seems that it became clear to everyone
13:56that the regime had ended without a return.
14:00Now, the Arab countries will deal very smoothly
14:06with this great democratic transformation.
14:11There is no need to be afraid of the Jihadist organizations there.
14:18However, the US bases are still in southern Syria.
14:23To confirm this,
14:25these factions will resolve themselves
14:28and end their role
14:30and rebuild the Syrian national army again.
14:35Again, to my guest in Moscow,
14:39Mr. Rami Al-Qaloubi.
14:42Russia, how will be the relations between Russia
14:46with the new regime,
14:49the leader of the formation in Russia or in Syria,
14:53knowing that Russia received Bashar al-Assad
14:58and his family,
15:00which is a negative sign.
15:03It is certainly a part of a pre-arranged agreement,
15:07but how will be the relations with Russia,
15:12the relations between Damascus and Moscow?
15:17I think this will be a pragmatic relationship.
15:20In politics, there is no permanent enemy,
15:23but there are permanent interests.
15:25For example, let's look at Moscow's relationship
15:28with the Taliban movement today.
15:30For example, the Soviet Union
15:32drove the Taliban to Afghanistan.
15:34But today, the Russian Security Council
15:38is discussing a law to prevent the Taliban
15:41from forming a terrorist organization.
15:43Perhaps this will be repeated with the Levant.
15:46This may take some time,
15:49because it is likely that the Levant
15:52will not build the Levant
15:54if it reaches the power of the secular state
15:57and the citizen in Syria.
15:59Therefore, this will of course
16:01lead to the rejection of Russia.
16:03But as time goes by,
16:05there may be a kind of pragmatic relationship
16:08with Turkey.
16:10But at the same time,
16:12there is a risk that the new regime in Damascus
16:15will become a guardian of Britain or the United States.
16:19In this case, the Russians will withdraw
16:22from their bases in the Syrian coast
16:24as soon as possible.
16:26And Syria will become a new state
16:28in the Western influence.
16:30Therefore, the Russian president's bet
16:33on what seems to be the security
16:35is to reach power in Syria
16:38as a guardian of Turkey
16:40and its supporters.
16:44I will go to Beirut.
16:46Amir Rukn Maroun Kheresh.
16:49Sir, what happened in Syria
16:53was likened by my guest,
16:55Mr. Omar Yeldareem,
16:57or was considered in the first part
16:59of this program
17:01that its repercussions will be greater
17:04than the repercussions of the Aqsa flood
17:07or what happened on the 7th of October.
17:11How do you see the future
17:15and is there a logical link
17:19between the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime
17:23and the next day in Gaza?
17:29Of course, the fall of the regime
17:32that ruled for 50 years
17:36in Syria
17:39is a bigger repercussion
17:43than what happened in Gaza.
17:46Although I do not underestimate
17:49what is happening in Gaza,
17:51which is the extermination
17:53of the Palestinian people
17:55and the elimination of Palestine
17:58and the Palestinian state
18:00and what the Arabs decided
18:02last month in Jeddah.
18:05The Arabs and the Islamic states as well.
18:08Now, in the face of this revolution
18:12that won,
18:14there are challenges
18:16on three levels.
18:18The first level
18:20is the internal challenge.
18:22The Syrian people
18:24are still at war
18:26for 13 years,
18:29since 2011.
18:31Their houses were destroyed,
18:33and there are at least 5 million
18:37still outside Syria
18:39in Lebanon,
18:41Jordan,
18:43and in exile.
18:45Their return will cost
18:47the new government
18:49a lot of effort
18:51and a lot of money
18:53to rebuild their houses
18:55and to meet the needs of the people.
18:58The needs of the people
19:00are the most important thing.
19:02And there is another challenge,
19:04which is the formation
19:06of the armed forces
19:08inside the country
19:10to protect the borders
19:12that will be threatened
19:14by very dangerous things.
19:16Do you hear me?
19:18Yes, we hear you.
19:20We hear you.
19:22In less than a minute,
19:24if you don't mind,
19:26we don't have much time.
19:28Yes, because there are challenges
19:30on the Turkish side
19:32in the region,
19:34on the Turkish side
19:36and on the side of Israel,
19:38which took the opportunity
19:40and expanded
19:42a large area
19:44from Syria
19:46and
19:48the decision
19:502243
19:52and the decision 242
19:54and the decision 243
19:56in 1972
19:58and the decision 243
20:00and the decision 243
20:02and there are
20:04challenges
20:06in the Arab,
20:08regional and international
20:10like the Russian bases
20:12and American bases.
20:14What will they do
20:16to make them
20:18faster than a missile
20:20and a missile
20:22and the internal situation in Syria in order for them to succeed.
20:26Questions that are burning inside and outside.
20:30Thank you very much, Amir Rukn.
20:32Maroun Kharij, you were our guest from Beirut.
20:34Thank you, my guest, in Moscow, the academic and political analyst Rami Kalyubi.
20:41And thank you, Mr. Omar Yeldareem, the journalist.
20:47He was our guest here in the studio.
20:52Stay tuned for more news at mediannews.com.
20:57See you next time.