Beijing might be stepping up threats toward Taiwan, after President Lai's diplomatic trip to the Pacific. TaiwanPlus spoke to Lauren Dickey, a security analyst with the China Power Project, to understand what China hopes to accomplish with its Joint Sword drills.
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00:00Lauren, I want to ask you about China using these overseas trips by Lai Ching-da and the
00:05statements that that President Lai Ching-da makes as an excuse to conduct military exercises. Is
00:10this a new normal? So I think anytime that President Lai goes overseas or makes statements
00:18that somehow suggest that Taiwan is a sovereign or independent entity and that the option of
00:25unification is not on the table, China has to react to that. For them, Taiwan and that goal
00:32of reunification is such a political crown jewel that they can't let this go by without doing
00:38something. And so the joint sword exercise series, because we don't know how many letters are in the
00:44alphabet for them to execute, right? They could use a joint sword in response to any type of
00:51engagement or speech or travel as they deem appropriate. So my hope is that because I think
00:58from the road, President Lai has shown a pretty pragmatic and even-handed approach from what I've
01:04seen. So hopefully any military response by China would also take into account the fact that
01:11there haven't been any splashy statements about Taiwan's identity that he's made. And hopefully
01:18China will be savvy enough to calibrate in that context. With China having conducted joint
01:23sword A, joint sword B, and now potentially a joint sword C, is there a concern that maybe the United
01:28States and Taiwan could maybe be complacent that these drills are becoming kind of an ordinary
01:34kind of occurrence? I do worry about that. I think that if you look at the history of air
01:42and maritime entry events into Taiwan's ADIZ as sort of our historical marker,
01:48when those started at a larger scale and frequency than what we had seen, it was a big shock,
01:54I think, to the United States. And the United States responded, right? There were statements,
01:59there were cautionary words put out into the public. But with time, my view is that some of
02:06that tapered off. And the U.S. in some ways effectively helped normalize those actions
02:13China was taking toward Taiwan. And so now I think with the joint sword exercises continuing
02:19indefinitely, we're confronted with the same challenge, right? Do we want to push back every
02:25time they happen? And if so, how hard should the United States push back? Or do we run the risk of
02:33normalizing them by not doing anything? And I think that would be particularly dangerous. So
02:38it will be important and interesting to watch in the coming days how the U.S. and potentially
02:44allies and partners around the world also respond.