गोल्ड, सिल्वर और भारतीय रुपया, मौजूदा साल यानी 2024 में फोकस में रहे. क्योंकि सोने और चांदी ने जहां धमाकेदार तेजी के चलते ऑल टाइम हाई टच किया तो दूसरी ओर डॉलर के मुकाबले भारतीय रुपया धरातल में धंसा जा रहा. साल खत्म होने वाला है या कहें कि नए साल की शुरुआत होने वाला है. ऐसे में बुलियन और करेंसी मार्केट का आउटलुक कैसा रहेगा, 2024 में उनके जबरदस्त प्रदर्शन की वजह क्या रही...इन सब पर बातचीत के लिए गुडरिटर्न्स ने कमोडिटी मार्केट के जाने माने एक्सपर्ट और केडिया एडवाइजरी के डायरेक्टर अजय केडिया से खास बातचीत की.
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#goldpriceprediction #goldinvestment #goldprice #goldpricedrop #goldpricecrash #goldpricetoday #goldpriceinindia #goldpricehike #goldjewellery #goldrate #22karatgoldratetoday #goldanalysis #bestinvestment #24karats #goldmarketnews
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NewsTranscript
00:00Namaskar friends, my name is Digvijay Singh. Welcome to GoodReturns. Today we will talk about gold, silver and Indian Rupees.
00:07All three were in the highlights in 2024. The reason for this is that gold and silver were all-time high-touch,
00:14but Indian Rupees reached a record low compared to the dollar.
00:20What is its outlook ahead? What is the view of the expert? We will talk about this in detail.
00:26Today we have with us the well-known expert of the commodity market and the director of KDR advisory, Ajay KDR.
00:34We will understand its outlook from him. Ajay sir, welcome to our show.
00:39Namaskar.
00:40Sir, the first question that we would like to know is that the RBI's MPC policy meeting has just ended.
00:50What is your take on this? 50 basis points have been cut in CRR.
00:54What is your view on the outcome?
00:59Namaskar.
01:00We have seen that there is a lot of pressure.
01:02We have seen that the ECB, Bank of England, Canada, and China have put pressure on the central banks to cut rates.
01:14In January, inflation was very low. In the U.S., inflation was 2.2%.
01:22In order to increase growth, inflation has to be reduced.
01:26Even today, the RBI's outlook is very good.
01:31If we talk about the Rupee performance, we are at a low of 85.
01:39But if you compare it with other currencies, we are still very strong.
01:45Even today, our GDP numbers are low compared to last quarter.
01:50But overall, we are in a very comfortable zone in the global market.
01:55The RBI has taken a very good step.
01:59It has opened doors in the future.
02:01But the cut-off in CRR will give support to the market.
02:06The initial fall in the equity market showed that the market is rising.
02:11The market has also given a heads-up about this action.
02:14I think 2025 is going to be very important.
02:17Donald Trump's policy and the central bank's policy will conflict with each other.
02:23But we can say that India will definitely enjoy it.
02:26In 2024, we saw a fight in crude oil.
02:30But our inputs were in the right direction.
02:33I think inflation is a pull-off here.
02:37I think this will give support to the market and sentiment will improve.
02:43Do you think the RBI can start a rate cut from the February policy?
02:48I think there is more pressure on Fed and ECB.
02:53We don't have so much pressure here.
02:55We hope that the next big bull run will start with a rate cut.
03:01We saw a push-up after the US rate cut.
03:05I think there is a budget in February.
03:09But I don't think there will be a rate cut in February.
03:12We might see a rate cut in the end of the first quarter.
03:18But I don't think there will be a rate cut in February.
03:21You are satisfied with the December policy.
03:26You are expecting a rate cut in the next financial year from Q1.
03:32Let's take a look at the bullion market.
03:34There is a strong movement in the bullion market.
03:36If we look at the entire year, it was very strong in terms of gold.
03:41There is a 30% return on gold.
03:45How are you looking at the entire year?
03:47If we look back at the new year, how are you looking at it?
03:51Gold and silver have shown a great return this time.
03:55One thing that has changed is that we never used to buy gold in India.
04:02We used to consume gold.
04:04We used to consume gold in the sentimental values that we used to have.
04:11But this time we have seen that gold has given better returns than equity.
04:18The 9% duty adjustment was very important.
04:23If we look at January, we have seen a 21% gain in gold and 24% in silver.
04:29If I add 9% to it, we have seen a 30% return.
04:34This year has been good.
04:36I don't think there is a threat in the next year.
04:38When the rally of gold and silver starts, it is due to some fundamental reasons.
04:44As of now, we are seeing geopolitical tensions.
04:47We are going to make the third world war in Russia and Ukraine.
04:50The first world war or 1000 days have passed with Israel-Hamas concerns.
04:56This will continue until it ends.
04:59Central bank buying continues.
05:01The new thing that has come is de-dollarization.
05:05We were talking about a new currency in the BRICS meeting that will be a gold backup.
05:10In the last 2-3 days, Donald Trump has said that he will impose a 100% tariff on the BRICS countries.
05:16But let's assume that he has already imposed tariffs on Russia and China.
05:21I don't think the BRICS countries are afraid because they are already in the tariff.
05:26Apart from this, there are policies of the central bank where we are seeing rate cuts.
05:29That is also support for gold.
05:31The last thing I want to talk about is the entry of financial players.
05:35We know that the day the common man entered the market, the volume and participation increased.
05:41In the last 2 years, people's interest in ETF has increased.
05:45Earlier, we used to buy gold and silver for consumption.
05:48But now, the public wants to buy gold and silver through digital and ETF.
05:54I think this will continue in 2025.
05:56No doubt, the volatility is good.
05:58After touching the level of 80,000, it has come down to 74,000.
06:02After touching the level of 1,00,000, it has come down to 80,000.
06:06So, the volatility will increase.
06:08I was coming to this.
06:10The geopolitical tension that we saw 2-3 months ago, the way it was hyped.
06:18Now, there is a little cool-off.
06:20The geopolitical ceasefire that is being discussed.
06:23The Trump policies that are being discussed.
06:28We got to see a little correction from this.
06:31So, what level can we see in the short term?
06:34We will talk about the long term later.
06:38But if we look at the short term, what level are you looking at till the start of the new year?
06:43Especially gold.
06:45I think the prices overreacted in November.
06:48Due to which, there was a correction.
06:50We also warned.
06:51From 80, we saw the price of 74 in gold.
06:54And silver came below 90.
06:56But I don't think there is any fear now.
06:58Because the way the equity market is a little overvalued.
07:01Carry trades.
07:02Because when we come in December, we come in carry trades.
07:04As a result of that, we saw a good recovery in the last week.
07:07So, if we talk about the year-end or January-mid,
07:10I think gold will show a level of 77,500 to 78,000.
07:14Silver seems to be jumping a lot.
07:16Where it is again in the 95-96 zone.
07:19Because it is an industrial commodity.
07:21And the way China has stimulated it.
07:23So, I think silver is more beneficial.
07:25I will tell you its barometer.
07:26It is called the gold-silver ratio.
07:28The gold-silver ratio is not able to sustain at 88-89.
07:31And now it is falling.
07:32So, I am more bullish on silver.
07:34Where if we see till January, it can show a level of 96,000.
07:38Sir, what you said in the previous answer.
07:41That the trend of buying has changed in the buyers.
07:44Through ETF, the buyers are not consuming.
07:47They are also seeing it as a good investment.
07:50But we see that the central banks are also buying continuously.
07:55If we see from the long-term perspective.
07:57In 2025, when we reach December.
08:01At what level will we see gold, sir?
08:03See, 2025 is going to be a very viable period.
08:06Here we have seen extreme volatility.
08:08Because if there is no Donald Trump and volatility.
08:10It is not possible.
08:11We have seen in the last term also.
08:12There was a tweet and there were changes in gold.
08:14So, definitely it will be more volatile than 2025-2024.
08:18But my belief is as of now.
08:20This first half will be fast.
08:22In the second half, we will be able to see corrections.
08:24So, in the first half, the current that we have discussed.
08:26Interstate, geopolitical tension, de-dollarization.
08:29Because of this, I think we can see a level of 3000-3100 dollars in gold.
08:34Which is currently trading at 2750-60K.
08:38In the first half.
08:39If we talk about silver.
08:40Looking at the industrial demand.
08:42It will show a level of 38-40 dollars.
08:44If this thing is taken to the domestic market.
08:46Then the fall in the currency.
08:48Gold and silver will be a little expensive here.
08:51But gold, I think, if we talk conservatively.
08:54Then we will see a level of 85-86K minimum before June.
08:59And silver will show a level of 1,30,000 dollars.
09:02We should review for the second half.
09:04But I think in the second half.
09:05You can get a little profit booking.
09:07But overall, if someone takes it for the next 2-3 years.
09:10Then I think it is comfortable from the current level.
09:13Take it.
09:14Your investment should be in gold and silver.
09:16In the first half, you are saying that the prices will increase.
09:20So, the season of weddings that lasts from April to May.
09:25In that season, we will get costly gold.
09:28And in the winter, the next year the wedding will increase.
09:30In that, you can get a little cheaper gold.
09:32Is that so?
09:33Yes, there is an improvement in physical demand.
09:35When we saw an adjustment of 9% in duty.
09:38We saw that price for just 2 days.
09:41After that, the market recovered immediately.
09:43What is there in gold?
09:45When it falls, no one wants to take it.
09:47But when it increases, people get more charges.
09:50So, definitely, I think the first half.
09:52Physical demand, investment demand and central bank demand.
09:55These three should be followed.
09:57Gold will be everyone's first preference.
10:00We were talking about the Fed.
10:02The Fed is in focus because it has a meeting next week.
10:06And it is expected to get 25 basis points.
10:10Do you think this is a big trigger for the bull market?
10:13How much impact will it have on the domestic market?
10:17When the rate was cut in November.
10:19I had warned you.
10:20Because according to our plot plan.
10:23In September, there was a drop of 0.5%.
10:26In November, there was a drop of 0.5%.
10:27In December, there was a drop of 1.5%.
10:28So, we were expecting a drop of 0.25% in 2024.
10:32And a drop of 1% in 2025.
10:34But in November, there was a drop of 0.25%.
10:36Because of which, there was a drop in gold.
10:38So, the 25 basis points in December will definitely support gold.
10:42But I think you should pay more attention than the Fed.
10:45Bank of England, Bank of Canada, ECB.
10:48Because the rate they are cutting.
10:50Because of this, we can see that the market is getting support.
10:54So, in a nutshell.
10:55The central bank which was on a rate pause after COVID.
11:00Now, it is on a rate cut.
11:02No doubt, Donald Trump has a different view on this.
11:05Because he had already said.
11:06That we should not go on an aggressive rate cut.
11:08So, there was a negative sentiment.
11:11But I think overall, when all the central banks will go on a rate cut.
11:14Then gold will be benefitting from it.
11:16So, the December rate cut will have a positive effect.
11:21Only then will the central banks be on an aggressive rate cut.
11:23It can be a little less.
11:25Like, instead of 1%, it will be 0.25%.
11:27But in total, only then will the central banks be on a rate cut.
11:31Whose support will be visible.
11:33So, overall, the coming days for the bullion market.
11:36Will remain in gold.
11:38If I talk about the currency market.
11:40As you said, you talked about the currency market.
11:44So, if we pay attention to the currency market.
11:47Right now, compared to the dollar.
11:49The rupee is continuously falling.
11:51Will this fall increase?
11:53Will it go up to Rs. 85?
11:55Or is there a possibility of recovering from there?
11:59See, for any developing economy.
12:01A falling currency is a cause for concern.
12:04But there is also a good reason.
12:05Today, India's import dependency is very high.
12:08But what are we importing that is non-productive?
12:10For example, gold.
12:12In gold, we saw that we had reached 1000 tonnes in 2013-14.
12:16That's when the government divided the new ETF.
12:19That there is a consumption gold and an investment gold.
12:22Oil.
12:23We saw that the government has already started an oil mission.
12:27Apart from this, the government is promoting Make in India.
12:29So, when we see a fall in the rupee.
12:31Our imports become costly.
12:33The government is taking care of that.
12:35On the other hand, exports get benefits.
12:37So, you can see our food grain production.
12:39Or our exports have increased a lot in the past 2 years.
12:42So, in a way, the fall in the rupee is a cause for concern.
12:44But for India, it is still viable.
12:46We have seen that in the future, the fall in the rupee can increase.
12:51The level of Rs. 85 can be hit in January.
12:54But according to the SBI report, we can see a fall of 8-10% in the future.
13:00So, there is nothing to worry about.
13:02Because our exports are getting surplus.
13:05And our imports are getting capped.
13:07But yes, in the future, we can see a fall of 8-10% in the rupee.
13:13So, the fall in the rupee will cross Rs. 85.
13:15Absolutely.
13:17Okay.
13:18Now, the new year is about to begin.
13:20So, as a young investor, I would like to ask you a question.
13:24Where should we invest?
13:26Let's talk about gold.
13:27Should we invest in physical gold?
13:29Or should we invest in ETFs?
13:32Whenever we talk about investing,
13:34you have to understand that
13:36do you actually want to invest or consume?
13:38I have a wedding at home.
13:39So, I will not invest.
13:40I will consume.
13:41I will buy jewelry.
13:42Or I will buy silver utensils to give to someone.
13:45But when you talk about investing,
13:47we look at the returns in the investment.
13:48I have invested today.
13:49I will get a return of 18-20%, 12-15%.
13:52I will leave.
13:53So, if you look at the point of view of consumption,
13:55then my advice is to take gold and silver from the current level.
13:59You will get double digit returns next year as well.
14:02But when you talk about investing,
14:04you have to look at the interest and return.
14:07So, I think the big value of this year,
14:09which is 30% overall,
14:11the return of 30% will not be made next year.
14:13If I look at the current level,
14:16then you will get a gain of 12-15%
14:18where we are looking at $3,000 internationally
14:20and $85,000 in the domestic market.
14:23So, in the first half,
14:24my first preference will be silver.
14:26Because in silver, there is still an expectation
14:28that you can easily get a gain of up to 30%.
14:32In gold, I think you will get a gain of 15-18%.
14:35So, my first preference will be silver for investment
14:37where you should invest through ETF.
14:40This is good.
14:41You are saying that bull run will continue in the bullion market
14:44and silver will increase faster than gold.
14:49So, what I am seeing in the viewers,
14:51in the investment advice,
14:53or what I am telling Ajay sir,
14:55is that you should enter into silver ETF.
14:57Sir, one last question is that
15:00when we are doing the full analysis of investment,
15:04as a new year resolution,
15:07when we want to enter into the commodity market,
15:09what should be taken care of as a young investor?
15:13When you invest in the commodity market,
15:16first of all, you have to understand
15:18what the inflation cycle is.
15:21Secondly, when you open any account,
15:23this product is available on Futures as well.
15:25In physical, we are seeing that
15:27when we invest in hallmarking, BIS, gold and silver,
15:29we have already seen its pointers.
15:32But when you come to derivative products,
15:34as you have already seen the index,
15:36futures, and options.
15:38For example, when you trade in equity,
15:40you should invest with a semi-registered broker.
15:45Also, you should take care of the global economy.
15:48But yes, there is a risk in equity.
15:51Any script can be zero.
15:52This is not the case in commodities.
15:54Gold and silver can never be zero.
15:56For the inflation hedge commodity,
15:59I would also say that
16:00suppose you have invested lakhs of rupees in equity.
16:03If you invest 20% in gold,
16:05then your fund will diversify.
16:09When do we feel the fear of falling in equity?
16:11When there is a fight.
16:12And at such times, gold is faster.
16:14So, I believe that if 18-20% of your diversion
16:17is in commodities or gold and silver,
16:20then the fear of falling in your portfolio
16:22reduces and the return becomes better.
16:25So, first invest with a semi-registered investor.
16:28Understand the market cycle.
16:30And use gold and silver as a diversifier
16:33where you will see a better return.
16:35Thank you very much, Ajay sir.
16:37The best thing is that
16:39you give us an expert view
16:43and also teach us
16:44what to do and what not to do.
16:46You also explain us about the assets.
16:49Thank you very much, sir.
16:50Thank you, sir.
16:51Thank you, sir.