Assistant editor Jane Bradley speaks to David Bol about the upcoming Scottish Budget
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00:00Hello, and welcome to the Scotsman Bulletin on Monday, the 2nd of December. I'm Jane Bradley,
00:06Assistant Editor, and I'm here with David Ball, our Deputy Political Editor. Hi, David.
00:11Morning, Jane.
00:12So I think we're just going to take a quick look at today's front page first. I mean,
00:17we are looking at the big issue of the week, the Scottish budget, which is due to be unveiled
00:23on Wednesday, and we're going to be talking further about that in a minute. But today,
00:27we have a story, Swinney Puts NHS Top of SNP's Budget Priority List. We also have a story
00:33about an education charity which has cut jobs after funding problems. And that's really
00:40what we're going to be talking about. So, David, over to you. What are we expecting
00:45on Wednesday?
00:46Well, as we know, this is the sort of draft budget we published by Shona Robertson. And
00:51as you mentioned, our front page today carries the story that the NHS is going to get sort
00:55of prioritised, which is no great surprise. It often is. A lot of the extra sort of almost
01:01three and a half billion Holyrood has got from Westminster in the funding deal was because
01:07of NHS spending in England. So very rarely do the Scottish government kind of sway away
01:13from that extra spending in NHS. So that is not that shocking, really. But it does mean
01:20that a lot of other areas who may be in quite a desperate need of a funding boost, given
01:25kind of the austerity we've been kind of experiencing for the last decade or so, they still may
01:32be starved of funding. So there may be cuts in other areas, for example.
01:36And what kinds of other areas will be nervous about what's happening on Wednesday? I mean,
01:41I know we've done a lot of stories on fears about the future of the arts in Scotland,
01:47which obviously we're home to the festivals. It is a huge thing. But perhaps when you're
01:53balancing the books and looking at hospital waiting times and so on, it's a difficult
01:57one to weigh up.
01:58Yeah, absolutely. I mean, John Swinney's been very clear about his kind of four priorities
02:03and the arts funding isn't one of those. And people would say, well, it's a luxury, but
02:09obviously it's not quite as simple as that. And it supports a lot of jobs, especially
02:14combined as a sector. So it's a very important part of the Scottish government budget. And
02:20a lot of these organisations are completely reliant on government funding, which kind
02:24of means it's a bit of a lifeline for them. So we won't know exactly until we see the
02:30budget what's going to get sort of cut or spending prioritised. Given the SNP are a
02:37minority, they'll have to please other people as well. So it won't just be when we get to
02:41the final budget next year, sort of in February, it'll be what the either the Lib Dems or the
02:45Greens, who are the two kind of minority parties likely to prop them up are prioritised
02:50about. And I mean, especially the Greens, you wouldn't have thought their big asks are
02:54going to be about arts funding and probably the Lib Dems as well. There's lots of other
02:58big issues and big things that need a lot of funding.
03:02So we're talking about those other two parties. What are their priorities in terms of what
03:06are they likely to be trying to push the Scottish government into prioritising if they want
03:11their support?
03:12Yeah, so the Lib Dems, the kind of mood music has changed from the Greens to Lib Dems. I
03:16don't think it's quite as simple as that. I think both are still very much in play.
03:21The Lib Dems want more funding on sort of mental health waiting was their big sort of
03:27ask. The party that's kind of champions more funding being spent on mental health, they
03:32want stuff basically spent on core services. And they think sort of independence has been
03:37a distraction. This is this red line that Alec Cole-Hamilton has brought forward, which
03:41is a bit of a strange one, given we haven't really been talking about independence for
03:44a long time. He's kind of put it back on the scene as if you spend any penny on this, we
03:49won't we won't do it. But for the Lib Dems, it's going to be like core spending and just
03:53prioritising some of their sort of shared priorities, like not reviving the National
03:59Care Service, which is a bit of a tricky one, given the SNP are adamant that it will come
04:04back next year. For the Greens, they want to kind of start where they left off when
04:08they were booted out of government, really. They don't want to go back to being a part
04:13of opposition. They kind of know how it works. They've seen inside the system and know
04:17what is feasible and what's not. There'll be a lot of funding they want on climate and
04:21nature. We saw some of that sort of cut by Shona Robison in September. So and they also
04:28want fairer deals for council and sort of council tax that freeze to be completely
04:33binned off, which I think most people in Holyrood would expect now.
04:37So, yeah, I mean, we are expecting the council tax freeze to be to be lifted. So I mean,
04:42what kind of rises can people expect as a result?
04:46Well, this is again, the SNP will have a bit of power here because COSLA, the sort of
04:51group that runs councils or is the umbrella body, wants unlimited council tax
04:57rises. They basically say that councils are still on their knees. And the freeze last
05:01year basically put them in such a huge position that they need these huge rises this
05:07year to kind of mitigate the fact they couldn't do it last year.
05:10Some of them felt they were out of pocket last year. But the Scottish government could,
05:13even if they do remove this freeze, which is almost a certainty, they could put a cap
05:18on it so they could stop it at five percent or whatever they choose, really.
05:22But some councils are already planning on hiking the council tax by almost 10 percent
05:28in some places. So it's really down to the SNP where they feel that councils should be
05:32allowed to to have this unlimited power or whether they need a bit of restraint given
05:37the kind of worries that the bills could go up by quite a significant amount.
05:42Yeah. And obviously at the moment, that could be really significant for householders.
05:45I mean, that's going to be that it's going to be quite some reaction to that.
05:49Yeah, absolutely. I mean, income tax looks like it's probably going to stay very similar.
05:53I wouldn't expect any more tax rises, but you never know.
05:57But the council tax is certainly one that people will notice.
06:00And it's one of those things that the SNP is committed to reforming for more than a decade
06:07and still hasn't got around to it. So it's still a controversial tax, whether it goes up or not.
06:12Yeah, absolutely. Well, it'll be interesting.
06:14And I mean, obviously, things are not going to be resolved on Wednesday.
06:17Can you just talk us quickly through sort of what the process is once the budget has been
06:21unveiled? What happens after that?
06:23Yeah, so Shona Robinson will unveil her budget, her draft budget on Wednesday,
06:27and we'll see basically what she's planning and what she wants to spend the Scottish
06:31government's budget on. Then by the end of the month, we'll have before the MSPs
06:36kind of break up for Christmas recess, there'll be sort of a budget bill, the legislation
06:40published, which will kind of formalise that.
06:44But really, it's not till February when we have when that bill goes through Parliament
06:48at stage one, two and three that she'll need the votes of opponents to get it through.
06:52So that's so these discussions we've been seeing and hearing about will continue into
06:58the new year. It'd be very unlikely whether we get any suggestion from the Greens or the
07:04Lib Dems. They're supporting this budget before the end of the year or especially before
07:09Wednesday anyway. So they'll continue and she'll probably have to make concessions, but
07:14they obviously want to get it right as close as they can before she publishes it, which
07:18is why they've been talking quite a lot.
07:20So it won't be until the end of February until they need that final stage three vote.
07:24So this is going to rumble on, unfortunately, into the new year and into February.
07:29Yeah, absolutely.
07:31Oh, well, thank you very much, David.
07:32And you can read all the latest on the Scottish budget and other stories on our website.
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