The Scotsman Bulletin for Wednesday March 19 2025 #Politics
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Hello, welcome to the Scotsman's daily video bulletin
00:03for this Wednesday.
00:04My name's Dale Miller.
00:05I'm deputy editor, the Scotsman,
00:08and I'm joined by our Westminster correspondent,
00:10Alexander Brown.
00:12Alex, we're gonna get to talking
00:14about welfare cuts very shortly,
00:16and it's maybe no surprise that it is leading
00:19the front of today's print edition of the Scotsman,
00:23specifically going in on some comments
00:25from Shirley-Anne Somerville,
00:27the social security secretary that spoke late yesterday
00:32in the Scottish parliament.
00:34Raising fears the welfare reform will be,
00:37quote, a severe blow to the Scottish budget,
00:40suggestions that it could rob the Scottish budget
00:44of millions of pounds.
00:46Obviously, some of what's the equivalent of PIP
00:49here in Scotland is devolved,
00:51but the decisions that were announced yesterday
00:55by Liz Kendall will have implications
00:58in terms of how much money
00:59the Scottish government ultimately has.
01:01And then like it did with the winter fuel payments,
01:03it'll have a decision to make.
01:05Does it copy what the UK Labour government are doing
01:07and in the process maybe criticise the decisions
01:10but say it can't do anything more and has to pass them on,
01:15or does it try and make savings elsewhere?
01:18That is something that we'll have a greater picture of,
01:22I think, over coming weeks.
01:23Also, the latest part of our business and golf series
01:27from Martin McLaughlin,
01:28where the focus moves to the historic courses
01:32in St. Andrews.
01:33Are they being overplayed?
01:35Some think that may be the case.
01:36You can read that piece at scotsman.com.
01:39Alex, it was a big day yesterday,
01:41continues to be a big day today,
01:44but confirmation today that a well-known figure
01:48in Labour circles, a former Labour MSP,
01:51has quit over what was announced yesterday,
01:53has quit the party.
01:55Yeah, I mean, Neil Findlay has quit
01:57after however many years in the party,
02:00but it's worth noting he is a former MSP.
02:02I mean, he talked about the welfare reforms
02:04and how they were heartless.
02:05They were going after the most vulnerable.
02:07Lots of sort of language we have heard from charities
02:10and I think from the SNP.
02:12And it is undoubtedly a blow to the party.
02:14He is incredibly well-known in Scotland.
02:17He's a voice that people will recognise.
02:19But I do think that for Labour,
02:22especially for Downing Street,
02:24it's not gonna be that great a blow
02:25because while it might be problematic for some in Labour
02:28and it's problematic to charities
02:30and perhaps many people in Scotland,
02:32broadly, the polling shows that they are supported.
02:35They are supported in reforming welfare,
02:37for better or for worse.
02:39The polls show the UK as a whole
02:42believes that we spend too much on welfare
02:44and something has to be done.
02:46And I think it's really interesting
02:48that the resignation that we're talking about today
02:51is a former MSP.
02:52It's not a sitting MSP.
02:54It's not a sitting MP
02:55and it's certainly not a member of the cabinet,
02:57even though we know that,
02:59or at least we're told that Antoinette Rayner
03:01and Ed Miliband were some of those who spoke out
03:04against the welfare reforms
03:05and against making these such drastic cuts in cabinet.
03:08So I think it's obviously a blow,
03:11but I think Downing Street will probably think
03:13if it's just him,
03:15that's a decent price for doing business.
03:18And that was interesting,
03:19some of the emotive language from Neil Findlay
03:21talking about the government,
03:23or Labor, sorry, having lied to the public
03:25going into the election last year
03:27just about what their priorities are.
03:29We'll probably get a better idea
03:31about whether some of this is sticking
03:34or not when we come to the Holyrood elections next year
03:37and what impact it has on NSO
03:39and Scottish Labor and their prospects.
03:41Alex, you've touched on a bit of a fallout from that,
03:46but is it going to be worse
03:49or are the government going to move on
03:51from this pretty quickly
03:52before the vote on the welfare reforms in May?
03:55So I think it's going to be a sticky PMQs today.
03:58I would expect Stephen Flynn
03:59to mention this resignation from this morning
04:02in his criticism and perhaps the charities
04:05who warn that the country is trying to save money
04:07off the back of the poorest.
04:10But there has not been this loud, open rebellion.
04:14Brian Leishman, Scottish Labor MP,
04:16he's been very critical,
04:17but he's been quite critical of the UK government throughout.
04:20He is on the left of the party.
04:21And the simple truth is,
04:23for all of the criticism and any issues in the polls,
04:26Starmer still has a pretty sweeping mandate
04:29and MPs are fairly behind that.
04:31And he also gets a bit of respite, right?
04:33Any vote on this, any vote on the changes to welfare
04:35isn't going to come for at least a month.
04:37So he has time to bring MPs over.
04:40And I also think Downing Street
04:42avoided the real problems
04:45before the announcement even happened.
04:47Initially, there had been plans to freeze PIP
04:50and to reduce the rate,
04:51which would have been really problematic.
04:53And Downing Street was so worried about that,
04:55that MPs were basically,
04:57it was a revolving door in and out of Downing Street
05:00in the past fortnight coming to calm concerns.
05:03So by not doing that,
05:05they've actually been quite clever.
05:06What they've done is by making it harder
05:09to get the entitlement and increasing the money,
05:11it sounds like it's not a cut,
05:12but in reality, they are going to make it harder
05:15for people to get access to the funding
05:17that they had before
05:18or the funding that they would say they need.
05:20But by not straight up cutting it,
05:22Labour can say they're streamlining the process,
05:25they're increasing the amount available,
05:27and it's all about supporting those who actually need it
05:29and getting people into work
05:31when the argument against that is,
05:33it's punishing the most vulnerable.
05:34So I think really, it's not going to be as big
05:37as it feels right now and as it felt yesterday.
05:42Alex, moving on from Labour,
05:44but something that is still impacting Labour
05:46in the polls is Reform UK.
05:48Now, there's some fresh polling out this morning.
05:52It's been interesting tracking.
05:53We know they did better than expected
05:56in the general election south of the border last year,
05:59but this new poll is about the picture here in Scotland.
06:02And fair to say it shows Reform UK doing well here as well.
06:06I think they're on the highest rating
06:07they've had so far for Holyrood.
06:09I think it predicts that they're going to get 14 MSPs,
06:12which is a remarkable result for a party
06:15that has not been around very long
06:18and that has spent the past two weeks
06:19fighting amongst themselves.
06:21I think it's a really concerning problem.
06:24And I think it's worth noting,
06:25it's not just a problem for the Scottish Tories.
06:28I think it's really easy to look at Reform and think,
06:30well, they're a right-wing party.
06:31Surely they're a problem for the Scottish Tories.
06:33It's not that simple.
06:35Eating away at the vote of Scottish Labour,
06:37who people think perhaps they have gone after the pensioners,
06:40have gone after the working class,
06:42people who voted for change
06:43and feel like they've been left behind,
06:44they're drifting to Reform.
06:46And also the SNP, people who feel like
06:48after what will have been 19 years,
06:51and they feel like their lives have not got better.
06:53I think it's interesting the polling shows that
06:54about Nicola Sturgeon.
06:56People like Sturgeon,
06:57but they didn't feel like their lives had got better.
06:59Some people from the SNP are going over to Reform as well.
07:01So if they're polling like that now,
07:04when we haven't heard from them,
07:06it's going to be really interesting.
07:07So it could either go up
07:08when we get a little bit more detail,
07:09and dare I say a policy,
07:11or it could go down if we get a little bit more detail
07:14and some policies.
07:16Either way, Reform are very, very happy today.
07:18Everyone I've spoken to.
07:20And we know they were doing an event as recently
07:22in Scotland as last week,
07:23where a couple of Councillors announced
07:26their defection over to Reform.
07:28It was still a good year out
07:30from the Scottish Parliament elections,
07:32but it will be interesting, like you say,
07:35about whether the momentum continues to build
07:36for Reform between now and then.
07:39Look, we will be bringing you fresh announcements
07:41about Project Willow as well.
07:43This is the blueprint for the future of Grangemouth
07:47following the announcement that the facility will close
07:50and includes commitments around
07:51how many jobs will be created
07:53and also nine individual projects
07:56that will sit within what's been dubbed Project Willow.
08:00Our politics team led by David Bole on this
08:03will bring you all the very latest throughout today.
08:05So you can read that at scotsman.com.
08:08John Swinney is speaking about what the plans are
08:12for this crucial side of the energy mix here in Scotland.
08:16Alex, thank you to you,
08:18and thanks to everyone else for joining us.
08:20You'll get the full wrap in print as well
08:23in tomorrow's Scotsman.