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00:00Hello, Teluser English presents a new episode of China Now, a Wave Media's production that
00:14showcases the culture, technology, and politics of the Asian giant.
00:18In this first segment, China Current dives into the top stories of the week, including
00:23the 2024 World Internet Conference that has kicked off and Chinese efforts against climate
00:28change, among other topics.
00:30Let's see.
00:35China Current is a weekly news talk show from China to the world.
00:39We cover viral news about China every week and also give you the newest updates on China's
00:44cutting-edge technologies.
00:46Let's get started.
00:56Welcome to China Current, your weekly news report on what's happening in China.
01:00I'm Lisa.
01:01In this episode, Porsche was held $80 in transport fee from a Chinese driver and assaulted him.
01:09The 2024 World Internet Conference kicked off in China.
01:13China tries to save our planet despite COP29 failure.
01:17First, let's look at how Porsche messed up its brand value in China.
01:22On 21 November, Chinese truck driver Mr. Liu accepted a job through the freight platform
01:28Huolala, which operates like Uber but focuses on cargo transportation.
01:34The order was for the Porsche Pudong Marketing Center in Shanghai, and the order also included
01:40a request to move goods from the third floor to the ground floor before transport.
01:45Since Huolala only covers the fee for transportation, Mr. Liu negotiated an additional six-hundred-dollar
01:52RMB, approximately 82 US dollars, for the loading work, in addition to the transport
01:59fee.
02:00However, when Mr. Liu delivered the goods to the Porsche Pudong Marketing Center, the
02:04staff refused to pay the agreed-upon handling fee, offering only the transportation fee
02:10listed on the Huolala platform.
02:12To make matters worse, they filed a complaint against him, which led to his account being
02:17blocked and prevented him from receiving new orders.
02:21In a video that's now viral online, Mr. Liu revealed that he suffers from kidney failure
02:26and is burdened with hundreds of thousands of RMB in medical debt from dialysis.
02:32Income from driving was essential for him, but after this complaint, his account was
02:36suspended, effectively leaving him unemployed.
02:40When Mr. Liu went to the Porsche Pudong Marketing Center to demand his wages, he claimed he
02:45was assaulted.
02:46He further alleged that a white employee took part in the attack, a detail that struck
02:51a nerve with many netizens, especially those in Shanghai, a city with a painful history
02:57of foreign occupation and concessions.
03:00Two days after the incident on November 23, Porsche official accounts issued an apology.
03:06However, the statement did not mention this assault on the driver.
03:10Porsche claimed that the individuals involved were not its employees, but contractors from
03:15one of its suppliers over Grand Shanghai.
03:18Meanwhile, the supplier released its own statement describing the incident as a minor physical
03:24altercation and denying that the driver had been assaulted.
03:28Mr. Liu reported that his lip was split during this assault, with visible bloodstain in a
03:34video he shared on his Douyin account, the China version of TikTok.
03:39According to a report by Red Star News, on the 24th of November, he paid 500 RMB out
03:45of pocket for medical examinations.
03:48A formal injury report from the Shanghai Public Security Bureau confirmed facial injuries
03:54caused by assault and a laceration on the lower left lip.
03:58It was only after this evidence emerged that he received 2,000 RMB in compensation, approximately
04:05275 US dollars.
04:08Rather than de-escalating the situation, Porsche's so-called apology backfired, sparking even
04:14greater public outrage in China.
04:17As of the morning of 25th of November, the scandal remained the top trending topic on
04:23Weibo.
04:24There's little doubt that Porsche's handling of this crisis in China has been unconvincing
04:29and insincere.
04:30Chinese netizens are also angry because it took the Porsche PR team two days to come
04:35up with this poor apology, yet the company has some of the best PR and media teams in
04:41Europe.
04:42Their deliberate avoidance of the issue and the apparent deflationary treatment of Chinese
04:47and European markets have damaged Porsche's reputation in China.
04:51For any automaker, brand value, pricing, and technology are crucial for competitiveness,
04:57but Porsche has lost all three in its most important market.
05:01According to Porsche Newsroom, China has been the largest single market for Porsche
05:05for eight consecutive years, yet the company has tarnished its reputation by withholding
05:10just 80 dollars from one of China's most vulnerable workers and issuing a half-hearted
05:15apology.
05:16Also, Porsche's trouble in China predates this scandal.
05:21According to Reuters, Porsche's sales in China fell by 29% in the first nine months
05:26of 2024, with its flagship electric sports car, the Taycan, experiencing a staggering
05:3250% decline.
05:34The Taycan starts at over 1 million RMB in China and offers a top speed of 230 km per
05:41hour.
05:42Meanwhile, Xiaomi, a Chinese automaker, has launched its SU7 Max, an electric sports car
05:48priced at just 299,000 RMB, with a top speed of 265 km per hour.
05:56At one-third of the price, Xiaomi has produced a faster mass-production sports car, effectively
06:02eliminating Porsche's pricing and technology advantages in the Chinese market.
06:07Now, for just 80 dollars, Porsche has managed to squander its final edge in China, and that
06:13is the trust and prestige of this central old brand.
06:17Falling to its trouble, according to Bloomberg, Porsche's stock has fallen to its lowest
06:22point since it began trading over two years ago.
06:26While the decline has been attributed to market concerns about potential tariff hikes on import
06:31cars when Donald Trump returns to office again, Porsche's own misstep in China tells a different
06:36story.
06:37Arrogant pricing, outdated technology, and a problematic management culture have driven
06:42the brand towards self-destruction.
06:45Following on, on the 20th of November, this year's World Internet Conference, WIC, kicked
06:50off in China's Zhejiang province.
06:53The four-day event attracted over 18,000 participants, including representatives from international
06:58organizations, government agencies, and leading internet companies.
07:02A report released at the WIC revealed that China has become the world's largest internet
07:08market with nearly 1.1 billion internet users.
07:12Additionally, the report indicated that in 2023, the added value of China's digital
07:17economy exceeded $1.68 trillion, accounting for about 10% of the country's GDP.
07:25The United States is also seizing this business opportunity.
07:29In September of 2023, TikTok launched its online shop in the U.S.
07:33Just two months later, a report shows that customers spent approximately US$333 million
07:42on TikTok Shop in the U.S., up from $260 million in October.
07:47The sales figures suggest that TikTok Shop is on track to reach an estimated annual revenue
07:53of around US$4 billion, making it comparable in size to Abercrombie & Fitch, which generated
08:00US$4.28 billion last year.
08:04Small business in the U.S. have been the biggest winner from TikTok.
08:08A report by Oxford Economics revealed that TikTok generates $14.7 billion in revenue
08:14for small business owners in 2023, and contributed $24.2 billion to the U.S. GDP.
08:22Notably, these figures were reported before the launch of TikTok Shop, meaning they don't
08:27even account for the additional revenue generated by the online store.
08:31Unlike major international brands that don't depend heavily on platforms like TikTok for
08:36promotion, small companies use TikTok as essential to their business.
08:41According to the report, 69% of small business owners indicated that TikTok boosted their
08:47sales over the past years.
08:49Additionally, these small businesses contributed $5.3 billion in tax revenue to the U.S. government
08:55last year by using TikTok as an advertising platform.
08:59Beyond the substantial revenue generated, TikTok has also created numerous jobs for
09:04Americans.
09:06Business now need more staff to manage their online operations, and TikTok has significantly
09:11influenced this shift.
09:12The food and beverage sector, in particular, had felt the greatest impact, with TikTok
09:17supporting 73,000 jobs in this industry alone last year.
09:22Businesses can also earn a living by creating content on the platform.
09:26According to the New York Times, approximately 170 million Americans use TikTok, which is
09:31half of the U.S. population.
09:34Since Joe Biden signed a new bill into law this April, a TikTok ban in the U.S. is set
09:39to take effect on 19 January 2025.
09:43During his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump stated that he would never ban TikTok.
09:49However, fulfilling this promise may prove challenging.
09:53Bloomberg Intelligence suggests that Trump might attempt to persuade Congress to repeal
09:58or amend the law, though this seems unlikely.
10:02Of course, since Trump's victory, people have become even less hopeful about the U.S.
10:07to fulfill its climate agenda.
10:09At the COP29, which concluded on 24 November, China demonstrated its commitment to addressing
10:16climate change.
10:17The Chinese delegation confirmed that since 2016, China has provided and mobilized over
10:23177 billion RMB to support other developing nations in their climate change efforts.
10:30This funding is comparable to that provided by developed countries, such as the United
10:35Kingdom, highlighting China's significant role in climate finance.
10:39However, the performance of developed countries, such as the United States, have fallen short
10:45of expectations for many nations.
10:48After two weeks of intense and contentious negotiations at COP29, a new collective quantitative
10:53funding goal was agreed upon, which stipulates that wealthier countries will mobilize $300
11:00billion per year by 2035 through international public finance and private sector mobilization.
11:07It is important to note that the term mobilize suggests that well-developed nations are expected
11:13to play a crucial role.
11:15The $300 billion annual target is not solely their responsibility.
11:20It is a shared obligation among various contributors to achieve this goal.
11:25The $300 billion, which the U.S. President Joe Biden called one significant step, was
11:30viewed as an insult by delegations from developing countries.
11:35They criticized it for not including last year's agreement, which urged countries
11:39to move away from fossil fuels.
11:42The Indian representative was especially critical, describing the $300 billion annual
11:48target as an optical illusion.
11:51Other developing countries, including Sierra Leone's representative, condemned the pledge,
11:56stating that the funding was definitely not enough.
11:59With Donald Trump's election victory, the U.S. is once again moving away from the Paris
12:04Accord.
12:05According to the Wall Street Journal, the country appears to be heading back to an energy
12:10policy aligned with Trump's campaign slogan, Drill, Baby, Drill.
12:15On the other hand, Chinese engineers are too busy reducing emissions to shout slogans.
12:21At the 2024 Airshow China, a new sustainable aviation fuel, SAF, became a focus of attention.
12:29This renewable fuel is made from non-petroleum feedstock and can be used in existing aircraft
12:36and engines without any modifications.
12:39It provides a new option for China's aviation industry to reduce environmental impact by
12:44blending it with traditional kerosene.
12:46At the expo, Chen Yu, the general manager of Sichuan Tianzhou International Trading
12:51Group, explained how kitchen waste oil collected from daily catering establishments can be
12:57refined into SAF.
12:59This process involves dehydralization treatment and hydrorefining and ultimately enables seamless
13:05blending with conventional petroleum-driven aviation kerosene.
13:09This blend has also shown to reduce greenhouse gas emission by up to 80% compared to conventional
13:16fuel.
13:17According to the vice president of the Aviation Society of China, the goal is for all commercial
13:22aircraft to be able to use SAF by 2030 and achieve net zero emission by 2050.
13:29And that is all for today.
13:31Thank you for watching this episode of China Currents.
13:33If you have any thoughts or comments, please reach us at the email address below.
13:37We look forward to hearing from you and see you next time.
14:03What stood out to me about the recent U.S. election
14:32was how it seemed heavily influenced by advanced technologies controlled by capital.
14:38While it is difficult for external observers like us to discern the specifics, it's safe
14:43to say that the election was unusual.
14:47Rapid advancement of technologies such as artificial intelligence and social media is
14:52profoundly shaping human cognition and decision-making processes.
14:58As these technologies become more and more common, identity politics did not prevail
15:03over class-based concerns.
15:05But does it imply there was a consensus before the election that bread-and-butter issues
15:10would overshadow identity-based concerns?
15:14No, I think opinions were divided prior to the vote.
15:19Many predicted a close election, with the outcome hinging on just a few thousand votes.
15:25I think Elon Musk has been leveraging legal gray areas to potentially influence elections.
15:32While his actions may not be outright illegal, he may be exploiting ambiguities in the law.
15:38In the election, there are likely many behind-the-scenes factors that the public is unaware of.
15:44For instance, there are speculations about Musk's involvement with Twitter X, his own
15:49app, as well as Mark Zuckerberg's apparent support for Trump on Facebook.
15:55Additionally, we see reports of significant amounts of money being poured into betting
16:00websites, alongside discrepancies among the numerous polls conducted, raising questions
16:06about which ones are truly representative.
16:10It's not as simple as one party engaging in false polling.
16:14Both Democrats and Republicans may be leveraging information technology to shape public perception.
16:20And this may not be limited to the current election cycle.
16:24I can't stress enough the evolving relationship between technology and elections.
16:31Election result is deeply intertwined with the development of technology.
16:35For example, the principle of one person, one vote, while not fully realized in the
16:41U.S. context, represents a form of mass democracy that is closely tied to the rise of mass media,
16:49newspapers, radio, and television, as well as modern transportation.
16:54Think about the early days of the United States.
16:57Only propertied white men were enfranchised to vote.
17:01This was not just a reflection of the political thinking of the time, but also the technological
17:06limitations.
17:08If a slave or a poor white man had been allowed to vote, they likely would have had no means
17:13to access information about elections, nor the ability to travel 20 or 30 miles to a
17:18polling place on horseback.
17:21Information and transportation have fundamentally shaped the nature of democratic participation
17:27in each era.
17:29Electoral democracy that we are familiar with today has evolved in tandem with the development
17:34of mass media and modern transportation infrastructure.
17:39This includes the ability to establish polling places across many locations, all of which
17:44are enabled by technological support.
17:48As human enters a new era of information and technology, the traditional Western electoral
17:53systems naturally face new challenges.
17:57This is not a judgment on whether the system is good or bad, but rather an objective observation
18:03that the established playbook of elections is being confronted by emerging technological
18:09forces.
18:10I believe this is the key takeaway I have from this election cycle.
18:15It is not limited to just this particular U.S. election, but applies to all elections
18:20going forward.
18:22Ideally, elections should be established on the premise that all voters have access to
18:26similar information and knowledge.
18:30The two of us, for example, should be able to access the same set of information, and
18:35then make our voting decisions based on our own interests and values.
18:39However, we now live in an era of alternative truths, where the information you receive
18:45can fundamentally differ from the information I receive, shaped by distinct algorithms.
18:52If you are a Republican, you may harbor strong resentment towards Democrats, and vice versa.
18:58This undermines the common ground upon which the electoral process should be built.
19:04For Mr. Trump's chances of winning the presidential election, we had our predictions.
19:11I believe most Chinese scholars thought he would win, and I shared that view.
19:16However, the comprehensive victory of the Republican Party caught us by surprise.
19:22Not only did they reclaim the White House, but they also regained the Senate, giving
19:26them a clear advantage.
19:28The House of Representatives remained in Republican hands as well.
19:32Moreover, as we all know, during the Trump era, he appointed three conservative Supreme
19:37Court justices, resulting in the current Supreme Court consisting of six conservatives and
19:43three liberals.
19:44So it could be said that the Republican Party had a major victory this time.
19:49This was unexpected, to be frank.
19:52It was a bit surprising.
19:53I believe this outcome arose due to several reasons.
19:57It could be because the U.S. economy is not doing well.
20:01From the data I have seen over the past three years, the wages of ordinary Americans have
20:06increased by 19.8 percent, which is a significant rise.
20:10However, when adjusted for inflation, real income decreased by 2 percent.
20:16A 2 percent decrease in real income is quite significant for the lower echelons of society.
20:22Actually, what ordinary people truly care about is the decline in their quality of life.
20:28However, the Democratic Party has not responded effectively to this issue.
20:34As a result, ordinary people are likely to abandon them.
20:38I believe this is one reason.
20:40When the economy is not performing well, people hold the ruling party accountable.
20:45Moreover, it seems to be a global phenomenon.
20:50This year, in Western countries, it's been a trend that the ruling parties have faced
20:54challenges in elections.
20:56The Conservative Party in the U.K. lost power.
20:59The Liberal Democratic Party in Japan faced setbacks.
21:03The ruling coalition in Germany was weakened.
21:06And France experienced a similar situation where Macron's centrists were weakened.
21:10It appears to be a worldwide phenomenon.
21:13Therefore, I believe the first reason the Republican Party won this time is due to these
21:18factors.
21:19The second reason was the Democratic Party's candidate's lack of competitiveness.
21:23Although Kamala Harris has a strong background from an identity politics perspective, being
21:28a woman of black and Asian ancestry, which is favorable for identity politics or progressive
21:34politics, her competitiveness was lacking.
21:37Looking at her political experience, she has not governed any region or led any department.
21:43So she appeared weak in this regard.
21:46Of course, some friends might argue that previously, Barack Obama also transitioned from the Senate
21:51directly to the presidency and did well.
21:55One could argue that Obama himself had a good grasp of policy issues, as he had been through
22:01debates.
22:03During the Obama era, he faced strong rivals within his party.
22:07And through debates with opponents from both parties, he demonstrated a strong policy acumen.
22:13However, this time, Harris encountered challenges.
22:17For instance, during an interview with Fox News, she struggled to answer questions, you
22:22know.
22:23When addressing substantive issues, she often evaded the questions or seemed indecisive.
22:30There were even instances where she struggled to speak when the prompting device was not
22:34in place.
22:35So, indeed, she appeared to be too weak in comparison.
22:40In procedural terms, her nomination doesn't quite adhere to democratic procedures either.
22:46It's just a matter of state leaders giving a nod, so her legitimacy is questionable.
22:51Coupled with her weak abilities, overall, she doesn't seem to be a very qualified opponent.
22:57Furthermore, the Democratic Party has gone too far with identity politics, their policies
23:03leaning too far left, which has led to a disconnect from the general populace.
23:08Many have noticed this time around that not only, for example, Latino Americans, but also
23:14African American men have seen a significant drop in support for the Democratic Party.
23:20Additionally, support from married women for the Republican Party has greatly increased.
23:25While Harris might have captured the attention of young women, she lost a large demographic.
23:31Therefore, her strategies and policy positions were too left-leaning with flawed strategies.
23:37As a result, the unexpected outcome emerged, with the Republican Party gaining such a significant
23:43hold on power.
23:45In the future, everyone will be concerned about the impact of Trump's policies.
23:50With the Republican Party holding such concentrated power, what will they do?
23:55As it stands now, the Republican Party will certainly leverage their power advantage to
24:00advance their agenda.
24:02However, if they push too aggressively to the right, it may spark a societal backlash.
24:09From Mr. Trump's existing statements, there are several things he is certain to do.
24:14Domestically, he is definitely going to implement large-scale tax cuts, particularly for businesses.
24:22The purpose of these tax cuts is to reduce the burden on businesses.
24:26As a major goal, is to revitalize the American economy, with a focus on revitalizing the
24:32manufacturing sector.
24:34To revitalize manufacturing, he will cut taxes for businesses, thereby reducing their tax
24:40costs.
24:41Another crucial aspect, which could have significant global implications, is his intention to withdraw
24:47from the Paris Agreement and roll back many environmental regulations.
24:52This means that oil fields near the coast of Florida and oil reserves in Alaska will
24:57be exploited.
24:59This move aims to lower oil prices in the U.S. and reduce energy costs for businesses.
25:05Additionally, this development could benefit China, as it is the largest importer of oil.
25:11Lower oil prices would benefit China, but it may not be favorable news for Russia, as
25:17it heavily relies on oil revenue.
25:20Regardless of how it is presented, for Trump, revitalizing manufacturing is paramount.
25:26To achieve this, he plans to cut taxes, lower energy costs, and impose tariffs to drive
25:32out many foreign products through a tariff wall.
25:36This is intended to create space for American businesses.
25:40I believe that the concept is valid from the perspective of American workers, but when
25:45it comes to actual implementation, I think the likelihood of success is slim.
25:51When you impose tariffs on foreign goods, retaliation from abroad is almost certain.
25:57This could result in a decline in American product exports, thereby protecting the domestic
26:02market at the cost of losing external markets.
26:06Additionally, there is a fundamental issue in the U.S., a potential lack of adequately
26:11skilled labor, which is a genuine concern, you see.
26:16Manufacturing differs significantly from the general service industry.
26:20Revitalizing the manufacturing sector is not a simple task that can be resolved by merely
26:25reducing costs and imposing tariffs.
26:28It is exceptionally complex.
26:30You need qualified workers and a supportive system in place.
26:35Since the U.S. delinked the dollar from gold in 1971, it has shifted away from industrialization,
26:42resulting in shortages in many industries.
26:45Unlike in China, where various industries are well-established, the U.S. has a long
26:50way to go in rebuilding its industrial infrastructure.
26:53In conclusion, at least for Trump 2.0, restoring the economy, particularly revitalizing manufacturing,
27:01will be a top priority.
27:03He may implement numerous measures, but my intuition suggests they may not be effective.
27:10To revitalize manufacturing, collaboration with China might be the key.
27:15By retaining certain advantageous sectors and partnering with China in other areas,
27:20he could achieve more success.
27:22His tariff policies could lead to domestic price hikes, inflation, increased interest
27:27rates and challenges in repaying the national debt, which currently stands at $36 trillion.
27:34Therefore, while Mr. Trump's intentions may benefit the U.S., their implementation may
27:39fall short.
27:41The second domestic policy focus will surely be on cracking down on illegal immigration.
27:47I remember that during Mr. Trump's first term in office, he placed significant emphasis
27:52on the issue of illegal immigration, right?
27:55His approach involved preventing new entries and deporting those who were already present
28:00in the country.
28:02In his second term, he is likely to continue this strategy.
28:06To add a potentially politically incorrect remark, but one that I believe aligns with
28:11reality, I think Mr. Trump himself holds white supremacist views.
28:17Viewing America's future from a white perspective might be chilling, indeed, because currently
28:23white women in America only have 0.9 children in their lifetime, which is a very low number.
28:30In contrast, Latin American immigrants have an average of 5.6 children, essentially creating
28:36a nearly six-fold difference, right?
28:39Looking ahead, it's evident that the future will not belong to white Americans.
28:44With a ratio of 1.6, if I have one son and you have six sons, by the time we reach grandchildren,
28:52it's game over for me, my one grandson versus your 36 grandsons and the trend continues
28:58to great-grandchildren.
29:00I have one, you have 216, and it goes on.
29:05Therefore, from his perspective, it's truly alarming.
29:08Hence, he will undoubtedly take measures on this issue, right?
29:13Preventing new immigrants from coming in and deporting old immigrants, so this is something
29:18he is determined to do, even though it will cause significant trouble, it will lead to
29:22a considerable backlash.
29:24Finally, his domestic agenda may have a significant goal, which is to restore traditional values.
29:32Did you all notice that on the evening of the 5th at Mar-a-Lago, he not only declared
29:36his victory, but also announced his first task and policy after taking office?
29:42The abolition of the gender politics policies?
29:44He stated that God created two genders, male and female, and all other LGBT matters will
29:51be abolished.
29:52He made it clear that men will not be allowed to compete in women's sports, so the 2028
29:58Los Angeles Olympics will definitely not be like Paris.
30:02The scenario of two men boxing against a woman will no longer be possible.
30:07By the way, we, the mainland Chinese, have lost a gold medal.
30:12In the women's 60 kilograms category, a woman lost to a man, and that gold medal should
30:19have been China's, but unfortunately it was lost.
30:23So he is determined to restore traditional family-centered values.
30:28Only then can the birth rates of white Americans rise, ensuring the future of the America he
30:34envisions, predominantly white.
30:36However, I estimate that this kind of value adjustment will stir up significant controversy.
30:43In any case, due to time constraints, I deduce that at least in his domestic policies, Trump
30:492.0 will focus on three main tasks, revitalizing manufacturing, cracking down on illegal immigration,
30:57and restoring traditional values.
31:00From the perspective of the MAGA movement, these actions are necessary.
31:04But from the opposition's standpoint, it's akin to the end of the world.
31:09Therefore, the future of U.S. domestic policy will undoubtedly be exceedingly complex.
31:16As foreigners, we are concerned about their foreign policy.
31:20I estimate that a key characteristic of their foreign policy will be a return to isolationism.
31:26The strong isolationist stance in American history was replaced by internationalism after
31:32World War II, but now they are reverting back to isolationism.
31:37The general trend is to reduce America's responsibilities, decrease its financial burdens,
31:43and shift the burden onto allies, which means that American allies are in for a tough time
31:48as each one will have to pay up.
31:50Additionally, they will certainly engage in trade wars, imposing tariffs not only on China,
31:56but on all countries.
31:58While he mentioned a 20% tariff for all countries, the tariff on China will be 60%, leading to
32:04a bloody battle in the field of trade.
32:08Globalization may experience a setback, which is something we can anticipate.
32:12Furthermore, the resolution of global issues will be affected.
32:17There is a high probability that they will withdraw from the Paris Agreement, leading
32:21to the breakdown of cooperation on transnational issues like climate change, public health
32:26concerns such as SARS or COVID-19, transnational crime, cybercrime, and even space-related
32:34matters.
32:35I presume these issues will be put on the back burner, which the whole world will have
32:39to contend with.
32:41His allies will likely be trembling in their boots.
32:44They will face criticism, financial demands, and increased responsibilities.
32:50Additionally, there are two issues that everyone is particularly concerned about.
32:55One is his claim to swiftly resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but in reality, it is quite challenging.
33:02He has likely underestimated the complexity of this issue.
33:06I believe he will, in some sense, facilitate negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
33:12But whether a resolution can be achieved remains uncertain.
33:16Currently, due to the lack of details, it's like he's boasting when he mentioned solving
33:21it in 24 hours.
33:23We can only speculate.
33:24My guess is that he may aim to assure Russia that Ukraine will not join NATO, because Russia's
33:30bottom line is that Ukraine remains neutral and does not join NATO.
33:36Ukraine must serve as a buffer zone between NATO and Russia, a concession that may deal
33:41a significant blow to Ukraine psychologically.
33:44However, in order to appease Russia, I believe he may agree to this arrangement, as he has
33:50the capability to enforce it being the leader of NATO.
33:54Another possibility is that he may tacitly allow Russia to keep Crimea and eastern Ukraine,
34:00accepting the current occupation as the status quo.
34:04A ceasefire could be established, eventually forming a European version of the 38th parallel
34:09between Russia and Ukraine.
34:11This may likely be the direction in which things are headed, at least from his perspective.
34:16He may demand that Russia cease further military actions and ensure that their troops do not
34:21cross west of the Dnieper River.
34:24This could help reassure neighboring countries of Ukraine's security.
34:28He may aim to resolve the conflict in this manner, but whether he can actually achieve
34:33it remains uncertain.
34:36The establishment factions within the United States may not necessarily agree, and European
34:41countries may also have reservations.
34:44Therefore, while his idea of resolving the Russia-Ukraine war in 24 hours sounds promising,
34:51whether he can actually deliver remains to be seen.
34:54We can only wait and see.
34:56I do have some concerns about the Middle East issue.
34:59He may escalate tensions because why?
35:01It seems like he has grown closer to Israel.
35:04In his previous term, he moved the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, which
35:10violated United Nations resolutions.
35:13But he did it anyway, so the Israelis are particularly fond of him.
35:17I believe this time he will increase support for Israel while exerting greater pressure
35:22on Iran.
35:23So Iran must be feeling a bit uneasy now.
35:27Another prediction is that he will pressure countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to
35:32align with Israel, so overall his approach seems more favorable towards Israel.
35:38However, whether his strategy will be successful remains uncertain.
35:43Iran will surely resist this pressure.
35:45Whether Arab countries will comply with his directives is also uncertain.
35:51In conclusion, he has introduced uncertainties into both the Russia-Ukraine conflict and
35:56the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which are worth observing.
36:00Ultimately, as a Chinese, we certainly care about the impact of Mr. Trump's 2.0 version
36:06on the conflict between China and the United States.
36:09Personally, I believe that Trump's governance will take a toll on China-U.S. relations in
36:15the short term, but benefit China in the long term.
36:19This is my perspective.
36:21In the short term, he is likely to intensify pressure on China, as he has announced a 60
36:26percent tariff on all Chinese goods, with certain products facing tariffs of over 100
36:32percent.
36:33Thus, we are undoubtedly facing greater pressure.
36:36However, in the long run, because he tends to act alone and even penalize his allies,
36:42this works in China's favor.
36:45In my own view, in terms of a one-on-one confrontation between China and the U.S., we are not afraid
36:51of the United States.
36:53In terms of actual production capacity, China has already surpassed the United States.
36:59According to exchange rates, our GDP is 65 percent of the U.S. GDP, around 2-3 of the
37:05U.S.
37:06However, based on Purchasing Power Parity, PPP, we exceeded the U.S. back in 2014, as
37:13per data from the CIA.
37:15Furthermore, in terms of actual output, China surpasses the U.S. by an even wider margin.
37:22China's steel production last year was 1.35 billion tons, while the U.S. produced just
37:27over 60 million tons, less than 70 million tons.
37:32We are nearly 20 times the output of the U.S.
37:35In addition, our annual cement production is 35 times that of the U.S., and our ship
37:41building output is 232 times that of the U.S.
37:45There is simply no comparison.
37:47Therefore, in my opinion, in a one-on-one scenario between China and the U.S., we are
37:53not at all intimidated by them.
37:55However, if the U.S. utilizes its entire alliance system and leverages the international system,
38:02China may find itself in a disadvantaged position.
38:05One advantage of Trump is his disregard for allies, relinquishing this strategic advantage.
38:11This is actually quite beneficial for China.
38:14Therefore, my intuition tells me that Trump's 2.0 version will certainly have an impact
38:21on China, affecting other countries as well.
38:24The impact on China may be more significant.
38:27Nevertheless, I believe that China is well-equipped to handle whatever comes its way.
38:35And this was another episode of China Now, a show that opens a window to the present
38:45and future of the Asian giant.
38:48Hope you enjoyed it.
38:49See you next time.