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00:00All right, I mentioned this already.
00:04I altered some things down.
00:06I took Travis Kelsey down to 40 plus at minus 280 just because, as I mentioned, as you and
00:10I have talked about, Tom, sometimes we don't know what his role will be yardage wise, but
00:14we know where Mahomes will look for one of his key teammates.
00:17Now, outside of that, I also altered down DeAndre Hopkins to 25 plus yards as well.
00:23He's sitting between that 21 to 35 mark over a number of games.
00:28I also talked about how his production has switched up.
00:31It's either been 56 receiving yards or 25 receiving yards, so altering them down just
00:35felt right.
00:36But here's where some juice comes in.
00:38Noah Gray to grab a touchdown plus 340.
00:40I like this one because four touchdowns in the last two games and the tight ends.
00:45We talked about how productive the tight ends are against both of these teams.
00:49You're talking about tight ends that can get 70 plus yards versus the Raiders team.
00:53You're also talking about the fact that if they lock in on Travis Kelsey, like teams
00:57tend to do, at least in the first half, because of those slow starts that we've seen, Noah
01:00Gray has to throw on his cape and be the hero in the end zone.
01:03So this is coming up plus 685 for my three-legger same game parlay.
01:07Tom, what do you got?
01:09All right, let's roll into it.
01:11This one's up at plus 484 and it starts off very simply.
01:15Chiefs team total over 27 and a half is sitting at minus 110.
01:19I expect them to come out and put up some points today.
01:21This is a game again.
01:23I think the Chiefs are going to drop 30 plus.
01:24I think they're going to cover.
01:25I think they're going to win by 20 plus overall.
01:27This is a Chiefs game.
01:28This is a time for them to finally get right.
01:30They had a road game against the Buffalo Bills, you know, last week.
01:33Maybe last week was a bit of a look ahead spot where they're looking ahead to a division
01:37matchup on a holiday slate, a short week, a primetime game, whatever you want to call
01:41today.
01:42Then I'm going to turn to Isaac Pacheco for a TD at plus 115.
01:45Again, kind of one of the main points that I'm making today is it's, we're going to see
01:48Pacheco and Kelsey both score.
01:50I like Pacheco's odds again at plus 115.
01:53He gets into the end zone, keep it as simple as possible.
01:56And then if the Chiefs are doing all this scoring, where does the other side come in?
01:58That's going to be Brock Bowers over 61 and a half receiving yards for the Raiders.
02:02This is also sitting at minus 110.
02:04He leads the team in target share at 23.7%.
02:06He has at least 10 targets in five of his last seven games when it comes to the Chiefs.
02:10They've allowed 797 receiving yards specifically to opposing tight ends.
02:15That is the worst in the NFL.
02:16So Chiefs get out and score.
02:18And then the player who's been targeted the most for the Raiders will rack up some yards.
02:23Doesn't matter if it's garbage time, doesn't matter when it happens, where it happens.
02:26Brock Bowers, who is having an awesome record-breaking year for the Raiders, will pick up the yards
02:31for them.
02:32Yeah.
02:33I'm a Bowers fan.
02:34Not to mention is that when you're looking at getting those gritty third down conversions
02:37or fourth down conversions, if you don't have a reliable running back, then your best friend
02:41is your tight end.
02:42Dave, what do you make of these two SGPs of the day?
02:46I love them both.
02:47I really do.
02:48I know I'm not allowed to say that.
02:50I really, I really, I really, really like them both.
02:54This is, I mean, look at Tom's again.
02:56I don't know which one gets you.
02:59The odds are right.
03:00I mean, if the Chiefs don't score over 27 and a half points, I'll be very surprised.
03:05But Chad goes back.
03:06They're going to try to get him the ball.
03:09And the Bowers is the only offensive weapon that the Raiders have, and they got a new
03:14quarterback playing.
03:16So that one's that, that worries me a little bit, but he should get that case.
03:22I love what you did here.
03:23I love what you did.
03:25You took Kelsey down.
03:27If he don't get 40, we got nothing to talk about later.
03:32Hopkins don't get 25 plus.
03:35I can't believe that's only minus two 45.
03:38And then you took your shot.
03:40You made this a gamble with Noah Gray and you put plus three 40.
03:45So a regular three team parlay normally pay six and a half to one.
03:49You found your way to get there.
03:51Casey, no matter what anybody says with the houndstooth or not, it is your day.