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00:00Russia, China and the United States have a new passion project, hypersonic weapons technologies,
00:07and they are setting the stage for a race of arms. As the world watches, these three
00:12superpowers are in it to win it. Who will emerge as the ultimate superpower? Russia,
00:17China, or the US, who will win the hypersonic arms race?
00:23On the 6th of March 2018, Michael D. Griffin, the Pentagon's Undersecretary for Research
00:28and Engineering, gave a speech that would, with time, change the events of the future.
00:34Griffin was labeled a un-reconstructed Cold Warrior, and he wore the label with pride.
00:40With five master's degrees and a Ph.D. in aerospace engineering, he was the chief technology
00:45officer for President Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative.
00:49I'm sorry for everybody out there who championed some other high priority, some technical thing.
00:54It's not that I disagree with those, he told the room, but there has to be a first,
00:59and hypersonics is my first.
01:02What Griffin was talking about was a new type of weapon, something that could completely
01:06revolutionize the world as we knew it. And today, these weapons are being developed not
01:12only by the USA, but also by China, Russia, and North Korea, and other countries.
01:19What are hypersonic missiles?
01:22Hypersonic missiles can maneuver and strike any target within minutes, and can travel
01:27at more than 15 times the speed of sound. They can reach their targets in a flash, much
01:33before anybody can be warned. An object moving through the air produces an audible shockwave,
01:38or a sonic boom, when it reaches about 760 miles per hour. This speed of sound is called
01:44Mach 1, after Austrian physicist Ernst Mach. When a projectile flies faster than Mach 1,
01:51it is said to travel at a supersonic speed, a speed faster than sound. When a projectile
01:56travels at a speed faster than Mach 5, it is said to travel at hypersonic speed.
02:02There are two categories of hypersonic missiles. Hypersonic glide vehicles are launched on
02:07booster rockets before they detach from the booster and glide towards the target at terminal
02:11velocity with an anti-radar maneuver. The second is hypersonic cruise missiles, which
02:17use oxygen for propulsion and are powered by powerful air-breathing engines or scramjets
02:23activated at high speeds. Both types of missiles travel at least 5 times faster than sound,
02:29but almost all ballistic missiles do that.
02:32Then what makes the hypersonic missiles unique?
02:36Hypersonic weapons are highly maneuverable, can fly at relatively low altitudes, and have
02:40such high speed that regular anti-missiles cannot compete. This makes it difficult to
02:46detect and destroy them. At hypersonic speeds, the air resistance and friction generate a
02:51lot of heat, which needs to be managed through tough but lightweight heat shields and thermal
02:56protection systems for the arms. The sensors and electronics also need to be able to withstand
03:02extreme conditions.
03:04China, Russia, and Hypersonic Missiles
03:08As the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, it's been reported that Russia used a hypersonic
03:13missile in an attack on Ukraine. If confirmed, this would be the first time that an ultra-high-speed
03:19maneuvering weapon has been used in combat. It follows China's testing of its hypersonic
03:25weapon last June. The US confirmed that last year China conducted a few tests of hypersonic
03:31weapon systems to advance in space and military technologies. The Chinese military launched
03:36a rocket into space twice. The first time, it missed its target by about 24 miles, but
03:42one of the hypersonic glide weapons reportedly flew through low-orbit space and circled the
03:46planet before plunging into the South China Sea. The system fired a missile as it approached
03:52its target while traveling at Mach 5. This globe-spanning hypersonic glider has demonstrated
03:58some advanced capabilities. The launch of this hypersonic missile surprised many, including
04:03Pentagon's top general Mark Milley, who said that it was quite a Stupnik moment. He was
04:09referring to the Soviet Union's launch of the world's first-ever satellite Sputnik in
04:131957, which ignited the superpower's race to space. While a lot of US leaders were stunned
04:20by China's progress, China quickly denied the reports, insisting that it was just a
04:24testing of a reusable spacecraft. Additionally, the Aviation Industry Corp of China, or the
04:30AVIC, had earlier confirmed that a Mach 8 wind tunnel called FL-64 had been completed
04:36and now had testing capability, including weapon separation and delivery. China also
04:42claims to have developed artificial intelligence that can predict the course of a hypersonic
04:47missile as well as an infrared homing technology that it thinks the US will not have until
04:52at least 2025. China seems to be quite ahead when it comes
04:57to the development of hypersonic weapons. The weapons have a level of technological
05:01sophistication that worries the US officials. However, it might be less fearsome than it
05:07appears because its sophistication might actually hold it back.
05:11Chinese scientists are also reportedly building the JF-22 wind tunnel, which can simulate
05:16flight at 30 times the speed of sound, state broadcaster CCTV reported last year.
05:22On 29 May 2022, Russia announced the successful test fire of the hypersonic missile Zircon,
05:29which is the latest addition to Russia's weaponry in the race against the US and China.
05:34Initial tests indicated that the Zircon had a maximum range of up to 500 km. However,
05:41the latest developments saw it strike a target nearly 1,000 km away in the White Sea.
05:46The Zircon is reportedly capable of flying 9 times the speed of sound, which is 2.7 to
05:523.2 km per second. The Russian military had said that it had fired the Zircon missile
05:58from the Admiral Gorshkov warship and hit a test target in the Arctic waters of Russia.
06:04In December of 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that the Kremlin had tested
06:09the new Avangard hypersonic rocket. The test was completed successfully, Putin said. All
06:15technical parameters were verified. Now, what is Avangard?
06:20Avangard is a hypersonic glide vehicle. It boosts into the upper atmosphere from a rocket,
06:26then detaches and glides towards its target. It can also maneuver as it reaches its target.
06:32The Kremlin had announced that it would fit Avangard with an atomic warhead and deploy
06:36it alongside old-styled intercontinental ballistic missiles starting in 2019. It is unclear, though,
06:43how potent the Russian weaponry is. The Kinzhal missiles used in Ukraine aren't
06:48technically hypersonics. They are air-launched ballistic missiles most likely modified from
06:53Russia's Iskander missile. Military experts are also doubtful of the progress that Russia
06:58claims to have made regarding other hypersonic weapons.
07:02Around the time of the results of the Avangard test, a photo went online of a Chinese warship
07:07sailing in the ocean armed with an electromagnetic railgun that could be capable of firing shells
07:12at hypersonic velocity. While conventional guns use explosive powder to charge, a railgun
07:19propels its projectiles by magnetic force. The railgun first appeared in January of 2018
07:25in a photo of the Chinese Navy landing vessel Hsiangshan at a facility in Wuhan on the Yangtze
07:30River. A large cannon could be seen on the forward deck of the ship. China confirmed
07:35in March that the cannon was indeed an experimental railgun. The photo also seemed to confirm
07:41that the gun had undergone at-sea tests, which would make it the first weapon to do so. Meanwhile,
07:47the war against Ukraine didn't go exactly according to what Russia had planned. As the
07:52initial objectives failed, everybody is fearful that Putin might increase the use of its hypersonic
07:58and long-range missiles. The Reduga Kh-101 was quite successful during
08:03Russia's intervention in the Syrian civil war, and it became the army's flagship long-range
08:08cruise missile. However, it is being used in far greater numbers in the war Russia is
08:13currently waging on Ukraine, with an apparent failure rate that, if correct, will be of
08:18significant concern to Moscow. International Institute for Strategic Studies Senior Fellow
08:23for Military Aerospace Douglas Barry writes in an IISS blog post.
08:28In the guise of the Reduga Kh-102 RSAS-23B Kodiak, the missile is also the Russian Air
08:35Force's main air-launched nuclear-armed cruise missile. During a 21st March 2022 U.S. Department
08:42of Defense briefing, an official noted that Russia still possessed more than half of its
08:46air-launched cruise missiles. However, it has already been used by many, and many among
08:51them have failed. The official said,
08:54"...either they are failing to launch, or they are failing to hit the target, or they
08:58are failing to explode on contact."
09:02Is the USA lagging behind? The U.S. has been quite slow in the development
09:07of hypersonics in recent years. The Air Force has struggled with its air-launched glider,
09:12while the Army and Navy won't be deploying their gliders before 2024 and 2025.
09:18Russian systems like the Reduga Kh-101, RSAS-23A Kodiak, air-launched cruise missiles, and
09:25Avangard hypersonic glide vehicles are already entering service, but the U.S. does not yet
09:30have an equivalent. In mid-March, the U.S. was successful in testing a hypersonic missile.
09:37The country kept it a secret for two weeks due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict
09:41and to avoid escalating tensions with Russia. The Lockheed Martin version of the hypersonic
09:47air-breathing weapon concept was launched from a Boeing B-52 strategic bomber. The missile
09:53maintained a speed of at least Mach 5, or five times the speed of sound. It flew 65,000
09:59feet above and traveled for more than 300 miles.
10:02The Air Force's air-launched rapid-response weapon, or ARRW, is a hypersonic boost glider.
10:09The U.S. also conducted two successful tests of scramjet-powered cruise missiles in September
10:14of 2021 and March of 2022. While both Russia and China claim to have hypersonic boost-glide
10:22missiles, no nation has developed a scramjet-powered cruise missile for service yet. This was the
10:27first successful test of the ARRW after three consecutive failures in testing in 2021.
10:35Soon after the testing, the U.S., the U.K., and Australia announced a partnership, called
10:40AUKUS, which will provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines in the Indo-Pacific region.
10:46It's mainly to keep an eye on the Chinese Navy, which is becoming an increasing threat.
10:52Following the news that Russia fired hypersonic missiles at Ukraine, AUKUS decided to not
10:57only develop the missiles but also find a way to stop them.
11:01''We are committed today to commence new trilateral cooperation on hypersonics and
11:06counter-hypersonics and electronic warfare capabilities, as well as to expand information
11:11sharing and to deepen cooperation on defense innovation,'' said U.S. President Joe Biden,
11:17British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison in
11:21a joint statement.
11:23''We reaffirmed our commitment to AUKUS and a free and open Indo-Pacific. In light
11:28of Russia's unprovoked, unjustified and unlawful invasion of Ukraine, we reiterated
11:34our unwavering commitment to an international system that respects human rights, the rule
11:39of law and the peaceful resolution of disputes free from coercion.''
11:43''Hypersonic weapons are so fast, so maneuverable that modern defenses can't stop them,''
11:49said Dr. Alex Craig, an assistant professor of aerospace and mechanical engineering at
11:54the University of Arizona.
11:56''Russia and China especially have been working in this field. Honestly, they are
12:01probably ahead of us right now.''
12:03The university's Boundary Layer Stability and Transition Laboratory features a hypersonic
12:08wind tunnel capable of testing airspeeds of up to Mach 5, five times the speed of sound,
12:13or about 3,800 miles per hour.
12:17Such wind tunnels help researchers study the effects of hypersonic speeds.
12:22According to Craig, the U.S. started decommissioning wind tunnels and other ground-testing infrastructure
12:26after the Cold War, whereas countries like China kept on building.
12:31That is why China has made a certain level of progress that the U.S. has apparently not
12:35been able to match.
12:37He also believes that Russia hasn't revealed everything they have yet and that they surely
12:41have something more formidable in store.
12:44However, the Pentagon needs to analyze how hypersonics can help meet its goals, and the
12:49goal shouldn't be to match or keep behind China or Russia.
12:53The Pentagon also needs to improve its defenses against hypersonics by strengthening theater
12:58defenses to protect potential targets such as aircraft carriers and command centers.
13:03According to Aaron Stain, director of research at the Foreign Policy Institute in Philadelphia,
13:08While all the major nuclear players are developing hypersonic systems, their end goal is different.
13:14And these different points of view feed into others' paranoia, leading to an aggressive
13:19race for arms.
13:20Both Russia and China have hypersonic arms in service, but their weapons are nuclear
13:25and intended to serve as deterrents, which means that these weapons would only need to
13:29be used in a near-peer conflict.
13:32Russia's Avangard has a two-megaton nuclear warhead, so until a nuclear war that threatens
13:37to end the world actually begins, they don't need to prove that their weapon functions
13:42correctly.
13:43In the same way, China's DFZF was designed to sink American aircraft carriers, another
13:48situation which hopefully doesn't materialize.
13:51On the other hand, the U.S. is committed to developing only conventionally armed non-nuclear
13:57hypersonic missiles.
13:59This means that they can be used immediately after being put into service for all kinds
14:03of conflict.
14:04As these weapons carry conventional warheads rather than nuclear ones, it also creates
14:08a challenge when it comes to the target.
14:11According to the Congressional Research Service, a nuclear weapon can be up to 100 times less
14:16accurate than a conventionally armed one.
14:18This is due to the size of its blast radius.
14:21You can afford to miss the exact target with a nuclear missile because it creates such
14:26a huge explosion that the target gets covered anyway.
14:30Conventional missiles, on the other hand, would need to be extremely precise.
14:34Comparing who's ahead and who isn't is not a very useful framework because the countries
14:38have different endpoints, said Singapore-based defense analyst Zoe Stanley-Lachman, formerly
14:44with the European Union Institute for Security Studies.
14:48Beijing and Moscow look at hypersonics to ensure that they can defeat all missile defenses.
14:53The U.S. plans to use them to strike hard targets such as things that support nuclear
14:57command and control.
14:59Enkid Panda, of the Carniege Endowment for International Peace, notes that the most valuable
15:04thing that the U.S. could do to slow down this race for arms is to discuss the limitations
15:09on strategic missile defenses just like it did during the Cold War.
15:13Putting missile defense on the table would allow Washington to extract meaningful concessions
15:18from Russia and China.
15:20It would additionally dissuade each from pursuing costly, convoluted, and dangerous means to
15:25deliver nuclear weapons.
15:28Where do the other countries stand with regards to hypersonic arms?
15:33The top spot in the hypersonic missile race is claimed by Russia and China.
15:37Russia has been intensely developing hypersonics in recent years.
15:41Putin believes that this will give Russia an edge over the U.S.
15:45India, in collaboration with Russia, is developing the BrahMos-2, which underwent testing last
15:51September.
15:52Japan is also working on a hypersonic missile that is specifically intended for anti-ship
15:57purposes.
15:59Several other countries, including France and Australia, have programs to develop hypersonic
16:03weapons.
16:04If all of these countries are getting on board with hypersonic arms, North Korea won't be
16:09far behind.
16:10These weapons are a step further than the ballistic missiles that Pyongyang have tested
16:14over the years.
16:16If North Korea fully realizes this, it could be a real contender in the race of arms.
16:23Victor Cha, a senior vice president and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International
16:27Studies, points out that North Korea's capabilities have been repeatedly underestimated in the
16:32past.
16:33They will test something.
16:35It won't work and the experts will say, oh, you know, they're trying to achieve some capability,
16:40but they're still a long way off, he says.
16:43Then they do it.
16:45North Korea is very clear about its intentions, he cautions.
16:48It wants to develop hypersonic capabilities and it will develop hypersonic capabilities.
16:54What does this mean for the future?
16:57Russia has shown the world the effectiveness and devastation of hypersonic missiles, but
17:02just one kind of weapon won't lead any country to victory.
17:05In the future, we might also be looking at cyber warfare.
17:09Cyber attacks can cause exponential damage by breaking or completely damaging confidential
17:14systems.
17:15Syrian Air Force Air Chief Marshal Vivek Ramchandra in April told Economic Times,
17:21The spectrum of conflict will be spread across all domains spanning from conventional to
17:25sub-conventional, kinetic to non-kinetic, and lethal to non-lethal, all under a nuclear
17:31overhang.
17:33Weapons could range from computer malware to hypersonic missiles, and armies need to
17:37develop capabilities that can withstand the full spectrum of conflict.
17:42The development of hypersonics is moving too fast, though.
17:45There hasn't been any actual discussion about how these weapons could be deadly and
17:49how they could disrupt any efforts to avoid conflict.
17:52There are no international agreements on the use of hypersonic missiles, nor are there
17:56any plans for such discussions in place.
17:59Instead, every country is just rushing to possess these weapons and is in the midst
18:04of a new arms race.
18:06Experts worry that this could renew the tensions from the Cold War era.
18:10With such fast weapons, there will be no time left for the military officials and political
18:14leaders to think and figure out the nature of the attack, which means that the opposing
18:19army will not be able to make any rational decisions, and it can pressure the countries
18:23to strike first.
18:25This could have devastating effects on the world.
18:28Previously, the creation of chemical and biological weapons and ballistic missiles with multiple
18:33nuclear warheads caused international debates and eventually, superpower treaty negotiations
18:39were made and the issue was brought under control.
18:42But that is not the case with hypersonic technology and there is nothing in place that could stop
18:46the use of such weapons.
18:49With almost every country gradually pursuing this new weaponry, it will no doubt have cascading
18:54effects in the future.
18:56One of them might win the hypersonic arms race, but no matter who wins, we all stand
19:01to lose as a race.
19:03Who do you think will win the hypersonic arms race, USA, China, or Russia?
19:08Or will it be some other country?
19:10Let us know your opinions in the comments section below.
19:13Thanks for watching and we'll see you in the next one.