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00:00Vladimir Putin is often referred to as a modern-day Adolf Hitler under whom Russia rose to its
00:06present excellence as a superpower.
00:08There are speculations about how Putin might be suffering from numerous physical health
00:12conditions and dementia, which is likely for someone his age.
00:17In sharp contrast to the consequences that his health conditions might bring, Vladimir
00:21recently passed a law that may keep him in office until 2036.
00:26But what would happen if Putin dies tomorrow?
00:28The consequences would be dreadful.
00:30In today's video, we've brought you a list of 20 worrying questions that Putin's death
00:35might raise.
00:37Question 20.
00:38What would it be like for the Russian population?
00:4170% of the Russian population gets its news from television, which is heavily censored
00:47by the Putin administration.
00:49The internet, too, is censored, and only approved content that suits the Russian regime's motives
00:54makes its way to the people.
00:56To add more to the existing difficulties for the Russian population, the latest infamous
01:00Ukraine invasion by Russia has led many countries to shut their airspace to Russian flights
01:05and some have even stopped their services for Russian nationals.
01:09Thus, for the general population of Russia, who are now basically trapped in their own
01:14country, Putin's death might prove as a sigh of relief.
01:19Question 19.
01:20Would things fall into the hands of the armed?
01:23According to Dr. Robert E. Burroughs Jr., a senior advisor for Russia and Eurasia at
01:28the Nuclear Threat Initiative, said Putin's pseudo-Cossacks might come into power and
01:32take arms in Russia.
01:34The pseudo-Cossacks fall somewhere between the officials and bandits, and their coming
01:39grabbing the power might incite violence against minorities they do not like and, ultimately,
01:44chaos in the country.
01:46The group isn't much well-controlled, given their cryptic role.
01:49They could prove to be an armed militia that is funded by the government and doesn't have
01:53any specified portrayal that could be dangerous.
01:56There's also more than enough proof that the pseudo-Cossacks are attacking anti-Putin protests,
02:01essentially displaying where their alliance lies.
02:05Question 18.
02:07Who would take Russia's responsibility immediately after Putin's death?
02:11Now, we know keeping a position as strong as that of a president of a country like Russia
02:16wouldn't be sensible.
02:18It always becomes necessary that some force occupies the vacuum and lets the country sit
02:22in peace.
02:23Well, officially, if Vladimir Putin were to be dead tomorrow, the Prime Minister grants
02:28an interim term under Article 92 of the Russian Constitution.
02:32This would signal that it's now time to arrange elections for the election of a new head of
02:36state for a period of a maximum of three months in the event of death.
02:41This interim president would rule Russia for 90 days until the next election.
02:45In the present scenario, the most significant player in Russian politics that might take
02:50up this vacuum would be none other than the current Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin himself
02:54who would take charge as Russia's interim president.
02:58This would be more than enough time for those closest to Putin to consolidate their power,
03:02which, indirectly, might throw chemical weapons and nuclear firepower into even more unstable
03:08hands.
03:10Question 17.
03:11Would the Security Council take up some power?
03:15In the death of the President of Russia or in the event of his lack of capacity to fulfill
03:19his duties, presidential powers are temporarily transferred to the head of the government.
03:25According to the Russian Constitution, an election should be held within 90 days.
03:29The focus then shifts from the government to the Security Council, which then takes
03:33things in charge.
03:34This will automatically make the Security Council member the key number during the instability.
03:41Question 16.
03:42Does this mean a rocky Russian elite and regime?
03:46The Security Council members will try their best in ensuring a constitutional transfer
03:50of power to ensure stability in the country.
03:53However, no individual group can resort to unrightful ways or personal gain and such
03:58a group of people can seize power unofficially.
04:01Secondly, the security agencies are so assorted that political control over one of them would
04:06not guarantee the rest maintaining peace.
04:09An elite class and a strong regime can't have a smooth run in such a case, leading
04:14to their collapse.
04:16Question 15.
04:17What would be the role of the stakeholders?
04:20If the Russian leader dies, some important decisions would be made by regime stakeholders.
04:26Stakeholders can be divided into three groups from the point of view of their leverage.
04:30The most influential group is certain Security Council members.
04:34These include the Prime Minister, security bloc leaders, and heads of certain corporations.
04:40The second group of stakeholders is closely related to the former, but the voices of
04:44this tier will be softer.
04:46This milieu comprises the head of the central bank, the head of the accounts chamber, and
04:50all the top 20 wealthiest people of Russia on the Forbes list.
04:55And the third group comprises influential political managers.
04:59These stakeholders are not to be taken lightly, as they hold the potential to hand over the
05:03power to someone who might not really serve the country, but would indirectly serve the
05:07stakeholders' gains.
05:10Question 14.
05:12What impact would it have on the country's decision-making mechanism?
05:16The decision-making mechanism will rapidly fall apart.
05:20If there'd be anyone whose views would be given importance, it would be the lower two
05:23tiers.
05:25Anyone below the third tier, including federal and regional administrations, will have to
05:29just nod in a yes to whatever is decided by the superior groups.
05:34It should be noted, however, that the most powerful administrators at the federal and
05:38regional levels have their patrons among the upper three tiers.
05:42This will ensure tranquility in the country, as it would promote consensus.
05:47Question 13.
05:48What would be the media's role?
05:51Despite labels being put onto the media such as Kremlin Media or Kremlin Propaganda, which
05:56imply a high degree of consolidation, the real situation is not so plain.
06:02Russia is a country where the media houses work for the interests of their owners and
06:06have their own biographical and institutional ties to Putin.
06:10In an emergency, media-holding owners will cater not only to the interests of political
06:14managers from the presidential administration, they will also be on their knees directly
06:18from the top tier of stakeholders.
06:22Question 12.
06:23Who'd succeed then?
06:25After a detailed analysis, one can speculate that only Sibyanin, Kudrin, Shemezov, Shuvalov,
06:32and Medvedev can be consensus candidates.
06:34Clearly, a consensus cannot be reached over influential and frequently mentioned persons
06:40such as Seyshin, Ramzan Kadyrov, or Shogyu.
06:43The consensus successor must meet important criteria.
06:47He or she should be an A-class official with extensive knowledge of macroeconomics.
06:52They must be capable of representing Russia abroad.
06:55They must be completely loyal to Putin's legacy.
06:58They must be accepted by Putin's entire milieu.
07:01And they need to be electorally acceptable to at least 30% of voters and, in general,
07:06symbolize a stable continuation of Putin's policy.
07:10Obviously, during his lifetime, Putin can pass on power to a little-known aspiring politician,
07:15one of the young regional governors, just like Yeltsin made Putin his successor.
07:19However, in a crisis, this would be impossible.
07:24Question 11.
07:26What would the country's situation be post the president's death?
07:30Putin's death would follow nationwide mourning.
07:33All executive and legislative bodies would be involved.
07:37Similar to the demise of other leaders in authoritarian regimes, we will see key stakeholders
07:41on TV during the funeral since they will use these events to present their solemnity regarding
07:46the matter.
07:48The three months before the new president takes charge would be occupied with the public
07:51assessment of Putin's rule.
07:53The friction between the stands of Russian views and the international ones will influence
07:58the successor's plan for his term.
08:00We speculate debates over which portion of Putin's reign should become the center of
08:04the new president's policies.
08:07Question 12.
08:09And what about the Kremlin coffers?
08:12The Kremlin's financial resources include the entire budget of the Russian Federation,
08:17a shadow reserve, Putin and his associates' pooled cash fund, and informal claims against
08:22wealthy owners.
08:24The transfer of power is primarily the transfer of control over the system of diversified
08:28investment managed by the Kremlin.
08:31Statistically speaking, it's about a record of who has access to Putin's earnings and
08:36who keeps what assets where.
08:38No one but the consensus candidates must have the right over those details.
08:42There is no guarantee assured that the money will be safe unless there is a legitimate
08:46heir authorized to handle it.
08:48It's easy to imagine conflicts of interest between FSBs, financial groups, individuals,
08:53and so on over the money.
08:56Putin's personal reserve fund exceeds everyone's estimations.
08:59Rough probabilities suggest anywhere around $800 to $1 trillion worth of Russian investments
09:05made across the globe.
09:07Although all of it is not Putin's wealth, the amount is mind-wobbling and can make many
09:12make claims over it.
09:15Question 11.
09:16Should the opposition stand a chance?
09:19The legitimacy of Russian opponents and their commitment to a peaceful opposition movement
09:24will lead to the decision to start a campaign once the elections are announced.
09:28The goal of Navalny and the other opposition groups would be to demand a fair election
09:33involving Navalny and a few other independent candidates.
09:36But by then, a successor would have already been decided by the Russian public.
09:41Perhaps officials will act even more resolutely than when Putin took over from Medvedev in
09:452008.
09:47No candidate is allowed to create a virtual threat in the second round.
09:51In addition, this would be done with a huge safety margin.
09:54Only three very unpopular candidates would be able to enter.
09:59Question 10.
10:00Can a Putin 2.0 be the country's next autocrat?
10:05After Putin's death, there are also changes in an alternate scenario that those who'd
10:09side with Putin's principles and policies would not stand much of a chance with the
10:13public, particularly after the plethora of issues the country is now faced with following
10:17its invasion on Ukraine.
10:20History is its self-witness to it.
10:22Shifts in power between those having the same political approach, particularly the ones
10:26with heavy reliance on the military aspect, a self-seeker attitude in terms of international
10:31relations, and so on, are very less likely to be the next successor.
10:36Putin has a certain aura around him, strong knowledge, and a political stronghold which
10:40helped maintain a balance with all the above-mentioned scenarios.
10:44That charisma is, well, a bit hard to achieve foremost.
10:47Thus, any successor lacking any of the above would not be able to strike a chord with the
10:52Russian population.
10:55Question 9.
10:56Would the Ukraine war stop for the better?
11:00The war in Ukraine will only come to an end with the death of the Russian president.
11:04These were the words of Kiev's top military spy chief, Major General Kirill Obudinov.
11:10The comments came amidst rumors that started surfacing over Putin's health.
11:13The president has been looking unwell in meetings, and some reports even suggest that he has
11:18undergone cancer treatment.
11:20Leaving him away to retreat is one of the strategies, but it is almost unrealistic,
11:25the chief said when asked about the possibilities of Putin surviving the war, adding,
11:29He is a war criminal for the whole world.
11:32This is his end.
11:33He drove himself into a dead end.
11:36Don't worry.
11:37Ukraine will win.
11:38Well, even if Ukraine doesn't win ultimately, Putin's unexpected death, given the health
11:43issues he's already facing, will most likely put the war to an immediate end, as with all
11:48the instability and chaos following the president's death, there won't be as strong management
11:52of those forces, nor the required funds, which are extremely crucial for any war to keep
11:57going.
11:59Question 8.
12:00How would the mourning be like in the country?
12:03The death of the president and all the formal rituals post his death would all be televised.
12:09The public, as is obvious, would not take their eyes off the television.
12:13The mourning would keep the country quiet and still in its wake, and there would be
12:16a restraint on fireworks for some time.
12:19During the sad phase for the country, the Russian media would lose track and would probably
12:23focus on the possibilities and even conspiracy theories behind the death of their president.
12:29Russian classical music would be on sway on Russian TV channels, with Swan Lake dominating
12:34them all.
12:35After all post-death rituals are completed, a detailed assessment would gradually start
12:40replacing the classical music shows on television.
12:43Cities and important landmarks would be renamed after the president.
12:48Question 7.
12:49What would be the state of the economy?
12:52There will be no announcements in Russia for about 24 hours before the European stock market
12:57falls by 2% and that of Russia by 5%.
13:01The instability and lack of proper management in the country would result in a rise in the
13:05prices of oil.
13:07Russia exports large amounts of fuel and oil each year, so the prices of gas will skyrocket
13:12to unimaginable levels after Putin's death.
13:15Russia is also a large exporter of grains, iron, and precious metals, so the world needs
13:20to seriously consider how to maintain its supply chain after Vladimir's death.
13:25The market will continue to fall for a few more days, but if nothing terrible happens
13:29in Moscow and if the state media proves the death to be natural, it will cut short most
13:34of the chaos, thus ensuring a smooth transition back to normality in the economy.
13:39Half of the loss would be recovered.
13:42Question 6.
13:43Would there arise a power vacuum?
13:46A vacuum of power would exist for long before yet another dictator takes charge.
13:51There have been instances in history when following the death of a dictator, the country
13:55sees some more autocrats taking up the vacuum, losing control because they could not fit
13:59the space created by their predecessor and are ultimately put off the throne.
14:04Thus, before yet another Putin takes charge of the country just the way Vladimir did,
14:09stability would appear rather uncertain and vague.
14:13Question 5.
14:15How intensively would Putin's death be investigated and what would follow the outcome of the investigation?
14:21The death will be investigated thoroughly to confirm that it's not due to Western
14:25or Ukrainian special forces.
14:27If it turns out to be a Western special force, there would most likely be a nuclear war ensued
14:32against them.
14:33If it turns out to be a Ukrainian government special force, the war with Ukraine might
14:37get even uglier and more vicious.
14:40In a third scenario, if some other country is proven responsible, the country would be
14:45bombarded with nuclear weapons.
14:49Question 4.
14:50Are there any chances of Russia's collapse?
14:54Michael Rubin, an editor at Media House 1945, had famously put that Vladimir Putin has made
14:59himself a new kind of Russian Tsar.
15:02Here's the problem, he had said.
15:05While every democratic wakes up each morning knowing when his or her term will end, every
15:09dictator wakes up knowing that today could be his last, effectively encapsulating how
15:14life is for an autocrat.
15:17On the other hand, Vyacheslav Volodin, Putin's former deputy chief of staff, said in 2014
15:22that
15:23There is no Russia today if there is no Putin.
15:26But it wasn't just the Russian government structure that Volodin was talking about.
15:30As many economists point out, Russia is a country of about 200 ethnicities.
15:35As those versed with geopolitics might be able to recollect, the Soviet Union collapsed
15:39primarily because it became so large to manage that it ultimately led to a shortage in money.
15:45All this might prove true for present-day Russia too, and the country's collapse might
15:49become possible following the president's sudden death.
15:54Question 3.
15:55Will there be a change of course for the country?
15:58Nikolai Baryshev is currently the secretary of the state and might take over from Vladimir
16:02Putin if Prime Minister Mikhail doesn't.
16:05The two have had a great bond and also share the same political perspective.
16:09Therefore, if Putin dies and Nikolai takes over the charge, no significant policy change
16:14might come across.
16:16Question 2.
16:17How would the young generation react and how would it change the course for the country's
16:22future?
16:23Young Russians have a deep hatred and disrespect for Putin.
16:27Over time, the younger Russian generation is expected to become more politically involved,
16:31radical, and sensible regarding their country's policies and would naturally drive some great
16:36changes in the system.
16:39According to a study, Russian youth aged 16 to 26 is the group that can have some important
16:44influence on the country's future, while most people aged between 18 to 24 were adamant
16:49to leave the country, which emphatically shows that Russia is changing drastically.
16:54The youth of Russia would surely be sad about the death of such an important figure of their
16:58nation but would soon find this an opportunity to transform their country's politics for
17:02the better.
17:04Question 1.
17:05Will there be a World War III in any case?
17:09In the event of Putin's death, World War III might simply not happen or at least be
17:13delayed essentially for a while.
17:15However, if some non-Russian country is found to be involved, as mentioned previously, World
17:20War III would soon be in its full sway, ending with the deaths of millions.
17:25While for some, a situation involving Vladimir Putin seems an ideal situation for Russia
17:30and the world at large, it comes with its own set of financial and political issues.
17:36And while all of that seems a distant dream to come to reality or more so something that
17:40can only happen in the parallel world, we'd wish the best for everyone, and Putin too.
17:46All of that while hoping that the Hitler of today gets some good peace of mind and starts
17:51channelizing the country's energy for the better and essentially put an end to its war
17:55with Ukraine.
17:58And that's it!
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