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Host Trevor Jones seeks answers for how recent severe weather and climate related events affect energy distribution. Learn how the grid operates and what affect regulation has on its distribution.

About E4: Transforming Power:
Host Trevor Jones explores how power generation is transforming America's reliance on fossil fuels and the benefits of moving towards sustainable sources. How do severe weather and climate events affect energy distribution?

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Transcript
00:00On February 14th, 2021, one of the worst snow storms and temperature drops in its history
00:19hit the state of Texas.
00:21Wreaking havoc for three more days, the storm caused billions of dollars in damage and shined
00:25a light on the independent Texas energy distribution grid.
00:29We're going to take a look at what happened with these massive failures in energy distribution
00:33and power, as well as similar cases in California and their causes.
00:38We're going to speak to experts from all sides of the issue to determine what happened and
00:42how these cases relate to climate change now and in the future.
00:46This is Energy Four, transforming power.
00:59The recent storm in February in Texas shined a light on the state's power grid and its
01:10failure to provide electricity to millions in what was one of the most severe temperature
01:14drops in the state's history.
01:16But this isn't a new problem.
01:18California residents have suffered through extensive power outages and rolling blackouts
01:21for years, most recently during the summer of 2020, as blazing wildfires and high temperatures
01:27related to climate change hit the state.
01:30We'll explore these failures and get a better idea of how the grid operates, especially
01:34as our power generation changes.
01:40There are four factors affecting the distribution of power.
01:43Renewable energy, nuclear energy, fossil fuels, and the grid are all accelerating the transition
01:49to sustainable energy for our planet.
01:51On this show, we will talk about these factors, their impact, and even the preservation of
01:56our planet.
01:59Former Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Neil Chatterjee.
02:05A lot of Americans, they hit the switch, the lights come on, and we take for granted what
02:10all goes into that simple act.
02:14The electric grid in the United States of America is probably the most sophisticated
02:20invention ever created by man.
02:23But a lot goes into maintaining and managing that invention.
02:27It used to be regulated.
02:30Here in Texas, for instance, utilities charged consumers enough to recoup their investment
02:36and make a little profit.
02:38Consumers benefited from reliable and affordable delivery of electricity.
02:43State regulators ensured that there was a balance in that relationship.
02:48Over the past couple of decades, we've actually moved to competition in electricity markets.
02:55Generators now compete against each other.
02:58When you inject competition into a market, it drives down prices, increases efficiencies.
03:05Here in America, we've seen markets deliver tremendous benefits to consumers, to the economy,
03:13and to the environment.
03:15Obviously, this is very technical.
03:16There's machines, there's generators, there's energy, but there's a very human element to
03:21this entire situation.
03:22My mother, her house was completely obliterated in the recent polar vortex.
03:27I grew up in the house.
03:28We moved in there when I was 13.
03:31I spent a lot of time there, but it's gone now.
03:33I'm so sorry for your family's loss.
03:37So many others lost as well, including their lives.
03:41This was a genuine humanitarian crisis, and there were many, many failures.
03:48All forms of generation failed, whether it be coal, nuclear, natural gas, renewables,
03:55didn't perform the way they were supposed to.
03:57Yeah, that's our foremost responsibility, is getting to the root cause to find out what
04:04went wrong, and clearly, many things went wrong, and make sure it doesn't happen again.
04:10Why did this occur?
04:12Was it a problem with the market design?
04:14Was it a problem with Texas being independent and isolated from the rest of the grid?
04:20Was it because Texas doesn't have a capacity market for insurance in these kinds of situations?
04:26Or is it because investments weren't made in winterization after the last cold weather
04:32event nearly 10 years ago?
04:35These are all complicated questions that we really need to carefully examine to make
04:40sure that when this type of event happens again, and it is inevitable that it will happen
04:46again, that we're better prepared so that families, folks like your mother, don't go
04:51through the same suffering that they went through this time.
04:54So winterization seems to be kind of the buzz term surrounding all of this.
04:59To the everyday person, the layman, how do you explain winterization?
05:02So we're here in Texas right now, and this grid was designed to withstand intense heat
05:10in the summers.
05:11And there are trade-offs there.
05:13There are steps that you can take to invest in winterizing your system that may actually
05:19cause greater complications in the summer.
05:22And so this is going to be the focus of FERC and ERCOT.
05:26We've got to figure out what steps weren't followed, what investments weren't made, and
05:32why, and understand what we can do better next time.
05:36You mentioned a couple acronyms in your last response, such as FERC and ERCOT.
05:40Would you mind explaining what those are and what their role is in energy?
05:44So I mentioned competitive markets, competitive wholesale markets in electricity.
05:48ERCOT is an independent entity here in Texas that oversees that competitive market here
05:55in Texas.
05:56FERC, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, where I am currently a commissioner, we oversee
06:03the country's wholesale electric markets, these competitive markets.
06:08Interesting twist though, because of Texas's independence, we do not oversee ERCOT's market.
06:15Texas is unique in that it's a big enough state that it's got the population to drive
06:22demand for energy, but also has such an abundant supply that it can meet that demand.
06:30Now there have been calls for some people saying Texas should be interconnected, Texas
06:36should be subject to federal jurisdiction, and it'll be ultimately a decision for Texans
06:42to make.
06:43Are there other grids around the nation in a similar state of peril anywhere else across
06:47our country?
06:48Here in Texas, a very conservative state, we had an unexpected cold weather event that
06:54clearly tested the grid and demonstrated that there were some failures.
06:59California, very progressive state, had an incident this summer due to extreme heat and
07:05wildfires that also threatened its grid, led to rolling blackouts and similar calamities.
07:13In the face of climate change and the threats that it is going to pose, it is more important
07:19than ever that policy makers, regulators, and the American people start to recognize
07:25that the grid is critical, and we need to make sure that it is resilient in the face
07:31of the increasing threats that are going to be posed by climate change.
07:38It's important that we explore these issues from every side.
07:41I asked Commissioner Chatterjee to join me in discussion with some seasoned experts on
07:45the critical issue of energy policy.
07:49This is Pat Wood, past chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, or FERC, and
07:54the Public Utility Commission of Texas, or PUCT.
08:02In 1995, George W. Bush appointed me to the Public Utility Commission, and he told me,
08:09the utilities that you will regulate care more about what we in the government think
08:14than what their customers think, and we're going to change that, because that's wrong.
08:18We moved then to a competitive environment, where we got generation out of traditional
08:25regulation and put it in the competitive market, and in most of Texas, we got the retail customers
08:30out to where they could be served by multiple providers, not just one monopoly regulated
08:35provider.
08:37And so 25 years later, that was a good gamble.
08:42We went from 21st most expensive state in electricity to 43rd number six nation in the
08:50world in wind energy attached to the grid.
08:54Solar energy is right on its tail, just in the last year, we're probably going to double
08:57this next year over what we had last year.
09:00But we had two events, one in 2011, and one exactly 10 years and 13 days later, in 2021,
09:08that showed us that we're not as reliable as we need to be.
09:12And this one, this time, was very much a much deeper impact on customers than we had even
09:19just 10 years ago.
09:20That's a number of points of vulnerability on the gas system that, again, are being investigated
09:26now, were any of those below the standard we need to maintain the reliability.
09:31We went from a 20 billion cubic feet per day production at the beginning of Valentine's
09:36Day, down by half to 10 BCF.
09:41That affected the whole country, because Texas supplies so much natural gas for the whole
09:44central part of our continent.
09:46So that impact was very deep.
09:49And so we've got to look at the system and better understand it.
09:52We've got about 30,000 megawatts of wind turbines throughout the state.
09:58A lot of it in the panhandle of Texas, but increasingly more and more on the coast.
10:02But a wind turbine can be winterized in a couple of ways.
10:05You could winterize the blades by the coatings and also by even having heat filaments in
10:12the blades.
10:13And importantly, winterize the actual generator inside the nacelle.
10:17We've got a lot to learn from our northern states, but I do understand that the things
10:24you do to help things survive the winter also make your plant less efficient in the summer.
10:31And so summer's when, again, we've historically designed the Texas system to be ready for
10:35the summer peak.
10:37But now that we've got to think about the winter peaks being almost equal.
10:41Our coal-fired plants, we had some trip-offs as well.
10:45We had coal actually freeze, little chunks of coal sitting outside in a big pile.
10:51They got rain.
10:52That rain was freezing.
10:53It froze on contact, just like the rain froze on contact on the wind turbine blades.
10:58It froze on contact on the coal piles.
11:03And you have to basically chip it away, like you would chip out ice for an igloo.
11:07You have to chip it away and then ultimately pulverize.
11:11That coal has to be pulverized into a powder.
11:14This is Dr. Scott Tinker, Director of the Bureau of Economic Geology and Professor of
11:19the Department of Geological Sciences, both at Jackson School of Geosciences.
11:25It's really interesting when you look at Texas and California and compare them.
11:29Summer, California, heat waves, fires, grids failed.
11:33A lot of reasons for that.
11:35Combination of fuel mixes and policy and the way the grid is structured.
11:40Texas, the big chill happened.
11:43And we have a very different grid here, it's ERCOT.
11:47It's designed to kind of be an energy market in the sense that when you need things, you
11:54pay more for them.
11:55And it's not connected to anything else.
11:56So when the big chill happened and lots of different fuels had issues, we weren't ready
12:01for that.
12:02So our grid failed.
12:03A really careful analysis is needed to look at the reasons behind both so we don't overreact.
12:10Yeah, Texas is a big state and we're blessed with a lot of different forms of energy.
12:14Natural gas, coal, four nuclear reactors, lots of wind, growing solar, even some potential
12:20geothermal.
12:21So a portfolio matters.
12:22And Texas has a portfolio of energy options for electricity.
12:26Not connected to another grid, sure, if they were able to provide electricity at an affordable
12:32price in that time, maybe we could have used some.
12:34But that wouldn't necessarily have happened, wouldn't necessarily have solved it.
12:38It didn't work in California.
12:39California imports about 25-30% of its electricity from neighboring states.
12:43And they pay a lot for that.
12:46And those big fires and that drought, the other states needed it more.
12:49California couldn't pay enough.
12:50So they had rolling browns and blackouts.
12:53So it's not necessarily how big your grid is, it's really how it's all structured to
12:57work together.
12:58You know, a lot of things did fail, but when and how much is really important as you look
13:03at the actual data.
13:04I've been fortunate.
13:05I visited South Texas Project in Comanche Peak.
13:08I visited Parrish Power Plant.
13:09These are massive facilities that provide baseload power, dispatchable electricity into
13:14a grid.
13:15If you look at from February 1st to about February 16th, that first week of February,
13:20things were pretty normal in Texas.
13:23Natural gas, nuclear, and coal provide quite a bit.
13:26And then quite a bit from wind, too.
13:28So you're looking in that 40 gigawatt range, normal times in the winter.
13:32First week, wind's coming and going like it does.
13:36Nuclear steady on, coal kind of coming and going, and then natural gas following that
13:40load tremendously like it does.
13:42Now it starts to get cold.
13:44So around February 8th, temperatures began to go below freezing, and they were forecast
13:49to stay that way for a while, and they did.
13:51So we went for a week.
13:52Now what happened?
13:54The wind and the solar, which were there doing their winter thing, cut more than in half.
14:00You know, the sun's low on the horizon in the wintertime, the days are short, the panels
14:04were covered in snow, and it was cloudy, you didn't have any sun.
14:08The wind started to freeze up fairly early on some of the turbines, so you couldn't get
14:13the electricity from them.
14:14Some stayed on, but much lower.
14:17Nuclear level for a week, coal level for a week, and natural gas started filling the
14:21gap.
14:22Kept getting colder, the demand went higher and higher, to 67 gigawatts, our absolute
14:28peak winter forecast max demand by day seven of that cold spell.
14:34We matched it, we met it, and it was thanks to natural gas.
14:37Every day, natural gas rose more and more and more.
14:40It more than doubled until day seven, Valentine's Day.
14:45And then, it stayed cold.
14:47So you saw a pump for cooling water in South Texas Project freeze up.
14:52They couldn't circulate water, took a reactor down.
14:55Coal piles started to freeze, so those base load dispatchable sources went off, natural
15:00gas as well.
15:01But it fell from its high, which is more than double where it normally is, to still
15:06more than it usually is, about a 30% fall.
15:10And wind and solar effectively went away on February 15th.
15:13Blackouts started, and things got expensive.
15:16So it matters not just what, but when.
15:19Very important to understand that, and for several days, we had the blackouts.
15:23We wanted to dive a bit further into the grid and its fundamentals.
15:27To do this, Commissioner Chatterjee and I spoke with experts, Dr. Adam Sobel, professor
15:32and climate scientist at Columbia University, Gretchen Bakke, author of The Grid, and finally,
15:39John Wellinghoff, 2011 FERC Chairman.
15:41Yes, it was in the first week of February 2011 that there was a very severe event throughout
15:49the full Southwest.
15:51We did do a report.
15:53It was rather extensive and detailed.
15:57The causes of the outages that occurred that were a direct result of the cold weather,
16:05ultimately it was because the generator, 67% of the generators ultimately had some issues
16:13with weatherization.
16:15The other part of the outage was actually the natural gas side of the supply.
16:20A number of gas wells basically just froze up, or water that was being extracted from
16:28those wells could not be, in fact, taken away from the wells because the roads where people
16:35had to travel to go empty the tanks were so icy they couldn't get to them.
16:40What were some of the recommendations that FERC and NERC made to Texas, to the Southwest
16:46for what generators ought to do to avoid this kind of thing in the future?
16:51Well, we made extensive recommendations.
16:54We made recommendations with respect to weatherization of the generators, with respect to the gas
17:03wells and the wellheads as well, but the one thing I want to make clear is that FERC did
17:09not then and does not now have direct jurisdiction over those generators and their maintenance
17:19and operation activities or the wellheads either.
17:22In your view, is it time for ERCOT to come under FERC jurisdiction?
17:27Certainly, if ERCOT was strongly interconnected into SVP, into MISO, into the WEC, it would
17:37not have had as severe events as it did.
17:41It makes no sense for ERCOT to be an island.
17:46I think it's time for them to join the rest of the country.
17:50There's no way you can have a conversation about the grid's impact on people without
17:57factoring in climate change.
18:00And I would love to get a sense from you on your views on the role that climate change
18:06may have played in these instances and if we can expect more such extreme weather instances
18:12to challenge the grid in the future.
18:14In the case of the California wildfires, I think the evidence is pretty compelling that
18:23those are becoming more frequent.
18:24I mean, we've seen them becoming much more frequent and much more intense in recent years,
18:29and the evidence is pretty compelling that climate change is part of that.
18:32It's actually happening faster and more extremely than climate scientists had predicted.
18:37We always thought wildfires would get worse in a warming climate.
18:40It seems to be happening more so, so there's some things we definitely don't understand
18:43about that, but we expect that in a hotter climate where water evaporates more quickly
18:48off the soil and off wood that's on the ground, that we'll have more severe fires.
18:54With some other kinds of events, heat waves, for the same reason, it's pretty simple.
18:58It's warmer, so we have more heat waves and more severe ones, and those stress the grid
19:01just because everybody's turning up the air conditioning.
19:05With hurricanes, the evidence is a little less clear, but we're pretty convinced they're
19:09getting stronger, even though whether they're happening more frequently or not is something
19:13we're still debating pretty intensely.
19:19And then you have events like the Texas one, where the evidence is really pretty murky
19:24at best.
19:25So in the Texas case, it was a cold event, and naively you'd expect, and the evidence
19:30in fact shows that cold events are happening less severely and less frequently because
19:36of climate change, because it's warmer.
19:38But there's a somewhat counterintuitive argument that the jet stream is getting wobblier as
19:45a consequence of warming of the planet, and so as it dives south, which is how you get
19:50these cold events, the cold polar air comes south behind the wobble of the jet stream,
19:55and there's an argument that that's happening more frequently as the climate warms.
19:59There's still significant debate over that in our community, but I'm not convinced by
20:03it.
20:04I don't think the evidence supports it very strongly.
20:07So in my view, the Texas event is not a climate change driven event as far as we know now,
20:14but that of course doesn't mean we shouldn't be prepared for it.
20:16We've seen that these events happen, obviously, they've been happening for years.
20:19The Texas event was comparable in magnitudes to one that happened in 1989 and others that
20:24had happened in previous decades.
20:26So it's not that cold events are going away, they're still going to be there, and the grid
20:30has to be ready to deal with them.
20:31It really is the story of the electric grid in the United States.
20:37How it is that we got the grid that we had in the 1970s, and how we really started to
20:43push it around in integrating renewables, in integrating finance, in demonopolizing
20:50the utilities.
20:52I wanted to see why it was that it worked that way.
20:55And then the other half, the second half of the book really is like, what is a microgrid?
21:01Why do we all talk about storage all the time as though it's sort of the Holy Grail?
21:05What's your view on the human impact and how do you think things are going to go moving
21:09forward?
21:11People had to think really, really fast about how to not make the situation worse than it
21:15was.
21:16And some of the decisions that they made in that fast thinking were wrong.
21:21But there is still a grid in Texas, right?
21:25And with some poor, very quickly made decisions in slightly a different direction, you would
21:32not have power right now, and we would not be having this conversation.
21:36But while that was happening in my home state, Oregon, there was also one of the biggest
21:41blackouts in the history of the state due to a giant ice storm, which got no press at
21:46all.
21:47And part of my question is, why is it that some power outages move us and move us to
21:54action?
21:55Like they move us emotionally, but they also move us to action and other ones don't.
21:58I think it's really important to think about the ways in which electricity systems can
22:02change, because we're changing them all the time.
22:06So instead of this feeling of like, I know what a grid is.
22:10It's just this thing that like, it's just, it's just there and I turn on the lights and
22:14then I have light and I pay my bill and I don't really know why, right?
22:18To think about the ways in which, for example, in Texas, one of the things that we saw was
22:24all of these community support that came out when the power was out and then when the water
22:29was out, right?
22:30And people were really proud of their ability to go and say, I helped my neighbors.
22:36I know who on my block needed something.
22:38We all got together and as a community, we made it through this.
22:42And I think we can say, how can you take that idea and bring it to the level of infrastructure?
22:52Thank you for joining us on this episode of Energy 4, Transforming Power.

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