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Are dangers of national population declines really that serious? We focus on Japan, whose population is on track for even larger declines if trends continue. What are the risks?
About The Population Factor:
A series of key conversations examining the connection between our planet’s growing population & related issues. Expect to be educated on a range of topics including climate change, wildlife preservation, immigration policy & consumption patterns.
EarthX
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EarthX is a media company dedicated to inspiring people to care about the planet. We take an omni channel approach to reach audiences of every age through its robust 24/7 linear channel distributed across cable and FAST outlets, along with dynamic, solution oriented short form content on social and digital platforms. EarthX is home to original series, documentaries and snackable content that offer sustainable solutions to environmental challenges. EarthX is the only network that delivers entertaining and inspiring topics that impact and inspire our lives on climate and sustainability.
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Are dangers of national population declines really that serious? We focus on Japan, whose population is on track for even larger declines if trends continue. What are the risks?
About The Population Factor:
A series of key conversations examining the connection between our planet’s growing population & related issues. Expect to be educated on a range of topics including climate change, wildlife preservation, immigration policy & consumption patterns.
EarthX
Love Our Planet.
The Official Network of Earth Day.
About Us:
At EarthX, we believe our planet is a pretty special place. The people, landscapes, and critters are likely unique to the entire universe, so we consider ourselves lucky to be here. We are committed to protecting the environment by inspiring conservation and sustainability, and our programming along with our range of expert hosts support this mission. We’re glad you’re with us.
EarthX is a media company dedicated to inspiring people to care about the planet. We take an omni channel approach to reach audiences of every age through its robust 24/7 linear channel distributed across cable and FAST outlets, along with dynamic, solution oriented short form content on social and digital platforms. EarthX is home to original series, documentaries and snackable content that offer sustainable solutions to environmental challenges. EarthX is the only network that delivers entertaining and inspiring topics that impact and inspire our lives on climate and sustainability.
EarthX Website: https://earthxmedia.com/
Follow Us:
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/earthxmedia/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/earthxmedia
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/EarthXMedia/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@earthxmedia
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EarthXMedia
How to watch:
United States:
- Spectrum
- AT&T U-verse (1267)
- DIRECTV (267)
- Philo
- FuboTV
- Plex
- Fire TV
#EarthDay #Environment #Sustainability #Ecofriendly #Conservation #EarthX
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TVTranscript
00:00Are aging populations a problem? Despite a global population growing by more than 80
00:06million annually, news reports are more likely to focus on the problem of declining human
00:12populations. Today on The Population Factor, we explore this question with a focus on Japan.
00:19Our guest is Peter Matanly, Senior Lecturer in Japanese Studies at the University of Sheffield.
00:30As the nations of the world work to create sustainable
00:59societies, stabilizing and in some cases reducing populations is a necessity. But declining
01:07populations are typically reported in the media as a problem, even as a crisis. My guest
01:13today has a different perspective. Peter Matanly is Senior Lecturer in Japanese Studies at
01:20the University of Sheffield. Peter, welcome to The Population Factor.
01:24Hi, Phil. Thank you very much for having me on your program.
01:28So there have been many thousands of news stories in the West in recent years about
01:36Japan's population crisis. Is Japan's population declining? And if so, how long has that been
01:43happening? How much has it declined in recent years?
01:46Well, Japan's population has been declining more or less for about the past 10 to 15 years.
01:56So officially, it started declining in around 2008. At the moment, it's not a rapid decline
02:03because we're at the peak, if you like, of a very long and gentle curve of population
02:09increase and then decrease into the future. We're at the peak of that curve now, which
02:15means that the rate of population decline per year in Japan is still quite small, quite
02:22low, but we expect that the rate of population decline will increase in the years to come
02:28to be quite rapid. Probably, if current projections are borne out in reality, and we don't really
02:37know what's going to happen in the future, of course, but if current projections are
02:42borne out in reality, then probably the Japanese population by around 2035, around that time,
02:49will be declining somewhere in the region of 750,000 to a million people per year.
02:55And that's on top of a population of, what, about 115 million?
03:00Well, at that time, it will be less than it is now. The Japanese population in total right
03:05now is about 125, 126 million. But by that time, yes, certainly, it'll be around 115
03:11million by that time. We expect that by 2050, the Japanese population may indeed have dropped
03:20to under 100 million, although the government wants to avert that by allowing for, if you
03:27like, a softer landing to about 100 million by mid-century.
03:31So how do Japanese people feel about this? Do they see fewer people as a problem or a
03:38good thing?
03:39Generally, policymakers, at least those that are most involved in the political economy,
03:46see depopulation as either a problem or even a crisis, as you mentioned at the top of the
03:52program. And that's because both aging and depopulation are predicted to increase government
04:00costs, particularly in the realms of caring for the elderly and so on.
04:06Peter, let me break in here because our viewers might not understand what we mean by aging.
04:13When you say an aging population, that's simply more of the total population are in older
04:19age brackets, correct?
04:22That's right. That's being pushed by two things. One is people are just getting older. People
04:27are living longer, which means that more of their life is spent, a greater proportion
04:32of each person's life is spent as an older person. But also that's being driven by fewer
04:37children being born. So a greater proportion of the population, as time moves on, as fewer
04:44children are being born, so the proportion of the population of older people increases.
04:49Now you've written about a depopulation dividend. So you've written that fewer people can actually
04:58bring benefits. What do you mean by a depopulation dividend?
05:03Well, basically it's whether we can derive socioeconomic gains or benefits from a falling
05:10human population or shrinking population worldwide. There are actually many countries in the world
05:16that are on the cusp of depopulation. The most important one of those, perhaps, is China,
05:21which is, of course, by population, the largest country in the world. China is approaching
05:26its peak and following roughly similar, population-wise, similar developmental path to Japan through
05:33the 21st century. And it's possible that, for example, depopulation could result in
05:41lower resource consumption or less resource consumption. Less consumption of fossil fuels
05:46can contribute also, therefore, to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, as well as perhaps
05:52people withdraw from the land in certain parts of Japan and other countries. Maybe that will
05:58result in or could be used to result in greater biodiversity benefits, a biodiversity bounce
06:05back, if you like.
06:07So what are some of the possible social benefits of smaller populations?
06:12Well, as you and your viewers might already know, Japan's cities are very large and very
06:20crowded. And there's an enormous pressure on infrastructure and services and so on in
06:25those places. It's possible that, for example, if the population of Japan were to decline
06:32significantly, and it will do by mid-century, by more than a quarter, probably, there'll
06:38be opportunities for reconfiguring living space, possibly for people to have more space
06:45to live in and to alter the space that they're already living in.
06:50So when I think of Japanese cities, one of the pictures that leaps to mind are the very,
06:58very crowded train stations and people sort of being shoehorned into the trains. Japan
07:04is one of the most densely populated countries in the world, I believe. So I could see how
07:09there'd be benefits in terms of less crowding.
07:14So what are some of the real costs of decreasing populations?
07:19Well, as I mentioned before, one of the biggest costs would be as the population ages with
07:26depopulation, the aging and depopulation come hand in hand, if you like. Of course, the
07:32costs of caring for an older population in terms of health and welfare and pension will
07:38increase as, for example, corporations and their pension plans will be affected, as well
07:45as families and individuals will have to adjust the way they use their money through their
07:51lifetime in order to accommodate a changing financial landscape, I think.
07:59Are those costs bearable? I mean, as you look at the most likely population trajectory for
08:06Japan over the next 30 or 40 years, how do those costs stack up? Bearable, manageable
08:13costs, or do the Japanese really have to find ways to shrink more slowly?
08:20Well, in terms of financial sustainability, particularly for the government, I think the
08:26costs are actually more bearable than some people predict. One of the things is that
08:33as we live longer lives, we also live healthier lives and more active lives in our older age.
08:39And more and more older Japanese who are reaching what we might call a standard retirement age of
08:4560 to 65, more and more older Japanese, as they reach those ages, are wishing to continue to work.
08:52And actually more are thinking about working through even into their 70s,
08:59not necessarily because they have to, because they need the money, but actually more because
09:05of personal interest and keeping active and being able to get out and lead, if you like,
09:12a social life through their work. So I think more and more older Japanese are continuing to work.
09:18So the impacts of an aging and declining population on pension payments and health
09:25and welfare payments will probably not be as great as some of the more, if you like, pessimistic predictions say.
09:33If we're thinking about the positive impacts of declining populations, obviously
09:39environmental benefits spring to mind. Can you tell us a little bit about examples where the
09:46Japanese have really embraced declining populations? I know you've written about Sado Island, for instance.
09:55Yes, I think there are two ways, environmental and social, where Japan has really, I think,
10:01is, I wouldn't like to say leading the way, but at least is thinking seriously and
10:08dealing in a calm and mature manner with aging and depopulation. The first, environmentally, is that
10:16actually in a lot of local areas in rural Japan, many of your viewers might have an image of Japan
10:23as this very densely populated urban landscape. And of course, Tokyo and Osaka and Nagoya and cities
10:29like that, that's what they are. But actually, the lived density of Japan is much lower.
10:35And that's because quite large areas of the country are relatively unpopulated, forested
10:43mountainsides, small communities, fishing villages along quite isolated coastlines and these sorts
10:50of places. And these are the places where aging and depopulation are occurring most severely,
10:58if you like, or the issue is most pronounced. And these are the places where there are many
11:06people in these sorts of communities, Sado Island being one, which is in the Japan Sea, located
11:11between the island of Honshu and the far eastern coast of Russia. In places such as Sado Island,
11:21they understand quite deeply that there's no returning to population growth for them.
11:28It's a given that in the future, their population will continue to shrink and it will
11:34continue to age. But by resigning themselves to that, what I think they've been able to do
11:40is to get over the obsession with growth or the growth-first mentality that still dominates
11:48the political and economic elites in Tokyo. And they've been able to sort of put aside those
11:55priorities and preferences and prioritize and preference other issues such as health and
12:02well-being, getting outside and enjoying oneself, social life, and enjoying what they have.
12:10Particularly also enjoying the nature that's around them. So there are quite a lot of
12:16developments in places such as Sado where farmers are turning towards organic farming methods and
12:23they are working very hard to create a much cleaner environment to reduce the amount of
12:29pesticides and insecticides they use. And also local governments too are doing the same thing to
12:36improve not just the environment within which humans are living, but also slightly beyond that
12:46into the more rural forested surroundings of many of these communities.
12:53So it's interesting. In the United States, we often see a bit of a disconnect between the
12:59power brokers and the general population. We're all sort of caught up in a growth economy,
13:05but I think the leaders want to grow, continue to grow, grow as fast as possible in many cases.
13:12The general populace is often much more ambivalent about this growth.
13:17Is there sort of a similar dynamic in Japan?
13:21Well, I think, yes, the leaders in the political economy in Tokyo most certainly
13:27are growth-oriented and remain so. And actually, in general, in politics throughout Japan,
13:35it's very, very hard for... Japan is a democratic country like the United States and it's an open
13:41society like the United States. And consequently, in that sense, it's very, very hard for a
13:46politician to get up on the stump at election time and advocate for shrinkage, particularly
13:52of the economy, of course. And that would be electoral suicide for nearly everyone who tried
13:59to do that. But nevertheless, Japanese, even the leaders in the political economy, and I've
14:07been in conversation with some of them at quite a senior level, they understand the situation
14:12because they've been told about it. And they know that depopulation, not only is it inevitable in
14:17the future, it's actually happening right now. And they know that it is going to accelerate.
14:22So they need to plan for it and they need to accommodate that in their policies once they've
14:29become elected. But amongst ordinary people in Japan, I think there is, as you say, a considerable
14:36amount of ambivalence about this. The realization that we've reached the limits to growth is
14:42percolating very broadly across the Japanese population. And a lot of people in these rural
14:47areas, as I said, they know that their communities are not going to grow, however much they try.
14:53So they're abandoning the idea of growth as a priority, and they're focusing on other things
15:02as a result. So that seems to me a fairly hopeful development because, as you say, we've sort of
15:10exceeded the environmental limits to growth in many parts of the world. More and more people
15:15are saying in the world as a whole, when you see climate change, species loss. So if we're
15:24pushing up to or past environmental boundaries, we're going to have to think about not just
15:31stabilizing, but in some cases, stepping back in terms of population, perhaps in terms of economic
15:37activity. So it seems like a hopeful thing to me that a very successful, wealthy society is able to
15:47start decreasing in size. Now, of course, as you say, it's one thing to talk about a slowly
15:54decreasing population. It's another thing to talk about a rapidly decreasing population. I would
15:59think then the problems would be harder to deal with. What are some of the measures that
16:07Japanese leaders are taking or considering to slow population decline?
16:15Well, there are two main issues that the Japanese government is dealing with
16:19in terms of the impacts of depopulation on the political economy. The first is they are
16:28working very hard to increase the participation of women in the labor force. So historically,
16:34in Japan, the labor force has been divided between, if you like, a core male labor force
16:40and a peripheral female labor force. And that kind of peripheralization of the female labor
16:46force has led to, is one contributing factor to productivity in Japan actually being quite low
16:54in comparison with similar advanced industrialized democracies. So they're
17:00drawing a lot more women into the labor force and a much higher proportion of women are now
17:05participating in the formal economy and not just as non-regular peripheral workers, but as core
17:10workers. So that's one thing that they're doing. But I could see a problem there because on the
17:15one hand, bringing women into the labor force will increase your labor force and help you
17:20economically that way. But then there's a conflict between raising children and working
17:27the long hours that I believe Japanese workers are typically expected to work.
17:32That is absolutely the case. Yes. And these kinds of tensions are, the government is trying to work
17:41with them. But one of the problems is, first of all, if you like, the relative independence of
17:49corporations and management to government action on these issues, and also very, very deeply
17:55ingrained working cultures, which predominantly are male working cultures. But Japanese are
18:01dealing with this, I think, quite well, because the rate of participation of women in the labor
18:07force has increased very substantially over the last 10 to 15 years. And part of that is,
18:13part of the reason for that is the government trying to get women into more productive roles
18:19in the formal economy in order to cope with the rising costs of an aging and decreasing population.
18:25So I must say, and you kind of alluded to this in your comment, that there is also a limit or
18:31a boundary to this in terms of the sustainability of the increase in female labor participation,
18:38because there is a limit to which, beyond which you can't go in terms of the percentage of people
18:43of a certain age, of working age, for example, who are actually involved in the economy. And
18:50I think we may be starting to reach that limit now with women. The other way that the Japanese
18:56government is moving on this is very, very slightly and very, very tentatively increasing
19:04the number of people that are welcomed or allowed into Japan as migrant workers from
19:11other countries. As you may know, Japan, traditionally or historically, has been a low
19:17immigration country. And I'm not saying at all that it's becoming a high immigration country
19:22right now. It isn't. But certainly, the number of people coming into Japan and joining the labor
19:28force, particularly from other Asian countries, has been increasing in recent years.
19:34And that, to some extent, will give Japan, as I mentioned before, a sort of a softer landing
19:40to the problems that might ensue as a result of rapid depopulation.
19:47As Japan takes that step to increase the numbers of foreign workers,
19:53are they looking primarily to sort of bring in guest workers, sort of the model in the Middle East
19:58or are they looking to bring in permanent immigrants who would then become citizens
20:03and whose children would become citizens? Well, to a very large extent, the people that
20:10Japan is welcoming at the moment are assumed to be sort of guest workers. I mean, they haven't
20:18called them that. They're not labeled in that way. But nevertheless, they're brought in from
20:23other Asian countries such as Vietnam, China, Philippines, Indonesia on trainee visas and
20:31other temporary working visas. A lot of these visas are, for example, to study visas and so on.
20:40And it's expected that most of those people will eventually end up returning to their home
20:47countries and settling down and living the rest of their adult lives there. However,
20:53the Japanese government, they are aware that quite a lot of these workers, who knows what proportion,
21:00but certainly a proportion of these workers do want to remain in Japan or will want to remain
21:06in Japan once they get there and find out that maybe they'll meet a Japanese and fall in love
21:12and want to get married and so on. All these sorts of things start their own family in Japan.
21:16Sure. And that is happening, you know, right the way across the country. The Japanese government
21:21is very aware that this sort of thing is happening. They're not encouraging it. But then
21:26again, they're not discouraging it. They're just remaining silent on it. Well, as you said
21:33toward the top of our show, I mean, it's interesting because Japan is a large, important country. I mean,
21:39the third largest economy in the world, 10th most populous country in the world. But it's also
21:45important because Japan is sort of a bellwether toward this trend. More and more countries,
21:52populations are plateauing, starting to decline in some cases. And the projections from the United
22:00Nations are that over the coming decades, more and more countries will follow this path. So
22:06it's kind of important that we're having new models for how to deal with this trend.
22:12And of course, many of us would want to encourage it for environmental reasons. Well, this has been
22:18a fascinating discussion. As you say, this is an issue for Japan. It's an issue for the world.
22:25And we're going to have to keep working through ways to deal with this and turn it to good use.
22:31So Peter, thank you so much for sharing your insights and your knowledge. Thank you for
22:38being on The Population Factor. You're very welcome. Thank you very much.