With U.S. President-elect Donald Trump appointing his closest aides to key positions in the incoming administration, including Marco Rubio, TaiwanPlus talks with professor of diplomacy Kwei-Bo Huang to find where Taiwan's diplomatic efforts may stand over the next four years.
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00:00With Marco Rubio appointed as the U.S. Secretary of State now, what could we expect for future diplomatic relations between the United States and Taiwan?
00:12The Secretary of State of the United States is one of the main roles in conducting U.S. foreign policy towards foreign countries.
00:20So I think that would be a good sign if Rubio as the Secretary of State is going to exercise a lot of policy choices to help Taiwan either defend itself or to support Taiwan economically.
00:37I think that would be a good sign, as I said.
00:39But, as I said, Rubio is just one of the main roles in playing U.S. foreign policies.
00:46So my hunch is that at least at the beginning, President Donald Trump's personal perceptions and will will matter most.
00:56So I think we'll see.
00:58You know, we cannot be that optimistic, but we shouldn't be pessimistic either.
01:04In previous tit-for-tat sanctions between the U.S. and China, China has sanctioned several of the so-called U.S.-China hawks.
01:13This currently includes Marco Rubio.
01:15So he can't travel to China in his capacity as Secretary of State, and thus any high-level negotiations would have to take place in the U.S. or a neutral third country.
01:27Could this have any effect on Taiwan?
01:31Blinken visited Beijing twice in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
01:37While Wang Yi only visited the U.S. once, they also met quite a few times outside the U.S. and mainland China.
01:47So my point is, you know, places do not matter.
01:53The issues to be discussed or to be communicated matter most.
01:58Therefore, whether or not Taiwan will be discussed, of course, Taiwan remains one of the most important issues between Washington and Beijing.
02:10But when will Taiwan be talked about?
02:14I think any minute.
02:16So we don't have to care too much about whether they can meet or where they are going to meet.
02:23But what they are talking about in regard to the issue of Taiwan.
02:30There has been some concern that the 21st century trade deals, second part, may not successfully go through under Donald Trump's proposed economic plans.
02:41Do you believe that there is risk of it falling through or that at the end of the day, this will still pass?
02:48I'm afraid that the second part of the 21st century trade initiative between the U.S. and Taiwan will not be fulfilled before the end of the Biden administration.
03:00Because only like two months left, the upcoming U.S. trade representative might not feel interested in negotiating with Taiwan about the second half of this trade initiative.
03:16So I am very pessimistic about the future of the U.S.-Taiwan trade deal for the 21st century.
03:25And also, I think it's very important for Taiwan to keep the U.S. on the same page that not only Taiwan would like to cooperate with Taiwan on many, many dimensions already mentioned in the trade deal,
03:41but also Taiwan needs some market access and tariff reduction from the U.S. so that the facilitation between U.S.-Taiwan bilateral trade can be further implemented.