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00:00Tatsuhiko Yoshizaki, Chief Economist at the U.S. Office of General Strategic Research
00:11Good morning.
00:12Good morning.
00:13This is Nikkei Saturday News on November 9.
00:16Let me introduce our guest for today.
00:20This is Tatsuhiko Yoshizaki, Chief Economist at the U.S. Office of General Strategic Research.
00:27Thank you for joining us.
00:30This is Tetsuo Kotani, a professor at the U.S. Academy of Sciences.
00:36Thank you for joining us.
00:39This is Masahiko Hosokawa, a professor at the U.S. Academy of Sciences.
00:43Thank you for joining us.
00:47Let's take a look at today's headlines.
00:51Here they are.
00:54The U.S. presidential election was a quick decision.
00:59Yes, it was a close call.
01:03Today, I'd like to focus on what's going to happen next.
01:11Here's a copy of the text.
01:14It says,
01:15The president is faithful to his promises.
01:17The photo on top says,
01:19It says,
01:20It says,
01:21It says,
01:22It says,
01:23It says,
01:24First of all, Trump has been analyzed as a very faithful person to his promise.
01:30So, I think he will try to realize what he has said so far in a very faithful way.
01:36And the term limitation is a very important point.
01:40There are only four years left.
01:42In fact, after the first two years, the Reims decoupling will begin,
01:46so I think he is thinking about a rocket start.
01:49I would like to focus on what will happen.
01:52Preparation is the most important thing.
01:55Now, let's look back at the results of the presidential election.
01:59This is a map of the U.S. presidential election held on the 5th,
02:03and it was predicted that there would be a tie,
02:06but early on, it was decided that President Trump of the Republican Party would win.
02:10President Trump declared victory in less than six days.
02:13President Trump has won in all seven states surrounded by yellow, which are called tie states.
02:19In the Senate, it is certain that the Republican Party will regain the majority for the first time in four years, including the non-regulation.
02:26In the House of Representatives, the battle continues, but the Republican Party is in the lead.
02:31If the Republican Party wins with the President, the House of Representatives, and the House of Representatives,
02:35it will be a boost to the administration.
02:38Well, why was Trump so strong?
02:42Reporter Nakamura from the Washington Post will tell you the latest information.
02:49The biggest factor in Trump's victory is that the American people have chosen to change from the current situation.
02:57Trump's economic measures and his tough stance on illegal immigration have been replaced,
03:03while Harris was unable to avoid the dissatisfaction of the people with Biden's strong influence.
03:11The Trump administration has been told that it is confident in its victory right after the election.
03:17At the Trump administration's rally in Florida, where supporters have gathered,
03:22North Carolina and Georgia are in the mood of winning every time Harris is defeated in a fierce battle to determine victory.
03:31The enthusiasm has increased.
03:33And many major media outlets have said that it is a great feeling from the supporters
03:39that Trump himself declares victory before the election is confirmed.
03:44They were relieved to be able to bring Trump back to the White House.
03:51On the other hand, the defeated Harris campaign was also optimistic about victory right after the election,
03:57and continued to have a strong stance.
04:00Many supporters have gathered at Howard University, a high school in Washington, D.C.
04:07As the enthusiasm of Mr. Harris was conveyed,
04:10it was possible to see tears in the eyes of those who were relieved and those who were in tears.
04:16In addition, the staff in the camp were told not to panic,
04:21and there was even a sense of secrecy.
04:25At a faster pace than expected,
04:29the American media was in a situation where Trump's overwhelming victory
04:33and Harris's disappointment were out of expectation.
04:39Mr. Nakamura, I don't think the election in the House of Representatives has been decided yet,
04:44but what is the situation now?
04:47Yes, that's right.
04:49The House of Representatives has already decided to withdraw the majority for the first time in four years,
04:54and the House of Representatives is showing the momentum of the Republican Party's majority.
04:59The election in the House of Representatives is still underway,
05:04and at 6 a.m. Japanese time, the House of Representatives secured 211 seats
05:10and is leading the Democratic Party with 199 seats.
05:15In recent trends, the Republican Party, which has held the presidency,
05:19has a strong tendency to hold the majority of the House of Representatives,
05:23and the Democratic Party is likely to be the so-called triple red,
05:28holding the president, the House of Representatives, and all the members of the House of Representatives.
05:33As a democratic party, we are watching the election as we pray,
05:37but there is a growing possibility that Trump's policy will be pushed forward.
05:43In that case, there is something that Mr. Nakamura is paying attention to after the election.
05:49Yes, that's right.
05:51I wonder if there were a lot of people who were shocked by Trump's victory.
05:55In the United States, the word migration to Canada is at the top of the search word on the Internet.
06:04In the Democratic Party, the responsibility for the defeat of the election is rising.
06:09Among them are candidates for Mr. Harris, etc.
06:12There is a severe look at President Biden as he invited chaos in the party.
06:18On the other hand, the Republican Party, under the leadership of Mr. Trump,
06:22has a political-political team.
06:24For the inauguration of the president on January 20 next year,
06:27it is a foresight that measures such as reformation and adjustment of policy will be progressed at a rapid pace.
06:34Yes, Mr. Nakamura will stop here. Thank you very much.
06:38Mr. Yoshisaki, it seems that the word migration to Canada has become a hot topic.
06:43It was the same eight years ago.
06:46In that sense, I'm not very surprised.
06:49The Democratic Party's defeat is quite intense.
06:52In general, the number of votes has not yet come out,
06:56but it has decreased by about 13 million votes compared to the previous year, 2020.
07:01So, this is a very long-standing defeat.
07:05If we don't analyze this properly,
07:08we have to get ready for what we will do in the next year, 2028.
07:19Mr. Kotanari, what do you think is the point of winning, losing, and winning?
07:26I think the most important point is the economy.
07:30After the vote on the East Coast,
07:33there was a sharp drop in the number of votes in Florida.
07:37This is because Florida was originally a fierce battle zone,
07:41so I think that the Hispanic vote was a big move to come out this early.
07:47I don't think it came out enough in the public opinion poll.
07:51It was said that there were seven fierce battles,
07:54but strictly speaking, there were 13 groups in those seven states,
07:58and one of the states was below.
08:00It was said that this was a fierce battle, so we don't know which one it will be.
08:04Of course, the 13 fierce battles were fierce battles,
08:08but Trump was overwhelmingly stronger in the other groups.
08:12I think the dissatisfaction with the economy was big.
08:17There is also the issue of immigration.
08:20Are the Hispanic people in the country who have status now
08:25agreeing with Trump's immigration abolition?
08:30The Hispanic people who have citizenship
08:33are aware that the issue of illegal immigrants has nothing to do with them,
08:37so I think there were a lot of votes for Trump this time.
08:40Mr. Hosokawa, what do you think?
08:42Well, as Mr. Kotani just said,
08:45the combination of dissatisfaction and excitement is good.
08:52For example, stopping the inflation,
08:59stopping the war, and preventing illegal immigrants.
09:02It's easy to understand.
09:04I can't remember what Mr. Harris voted for.
09:08Even if it's the environment or human rights,
09:10I think there are more people who care about tomorrow's lives than that.
09:14I feel like only the celebrities who support him stand out.
09:17That's right.
09:18I often say that I'm against public opinion polls,
09:21but I think there are a lot of people who react to public opinion polls.
09:25People with low income or young people
09:28may not react to them.
09:31I think that's what the Japanese election plan team said.
09:35I think there's a structural problem like that.
09:39Mr. Kotani, there should be a lot of people like that in public opinion polls.
09:46I was told that there was a correction in the poll this time,
09:53but when I opened the lid, I felt like there were a few percent.
09:57What kind of people are they?
09:59In the end, they're people who don't intend to respond to public opinion polls.
10:04Or I think there's a possibility that the public opinion polls didn't reach them.
10:09In 2016, 2020, and this time,
10:11I think all the public opinion polls underestimated Trump.
10:15I was told that it was a fierce battle this time,
10:18so I don't think it's strange that Trump was actually in the lead.
10:22After the commercial,
10:24let's see how the world and Japan will change
10:26with the second Trump administration.
10:46I want to thank the American people
10:49for the extraordinary honor of being elected your 47th president
10:55and your 45th president.
11:00Mr. Trump of the Republican Party,
11:03who overturned expectations and ensured victory early on.
11:07The focus is already on what kind of policy
11:11and what kind of policy he will implement.
11:17One of the policies that is attracting attention is tariffs.
11:22It is said that China is considering imposing 60% tariffs on imported goods.
11:31In line with China-made EVs,
11:33it is also suggested that 100% tariffs be imposed on vehicles imported from Mexico.
11:41The tariff is not limited to China alone.
11:45It is also said that 10% to 20% tariffs will be imposed on imported goods from the U.S. and the U.K.
11:55It is also said that there will be major changes in environmental and energy policy.
12:02Mr. Trump has been saying that if he wins the presidential election,
12:06he will increase oil and natural gas prices and lower energy prices.
12:12He is also saying that he will withdraw from the Paris Agreement,
12:16which is an international framework for warming measures.
12:20It is also said that he will change his policy to promote gas and carbon investment,
12:24such as renewable energy and EVs that the Biden administration has promoted.
12:31It is also expected that there will be a break in the spread of EVs.
12:35It is also said that it will affect Japanese companies that have been investing in EVs,
12:39such as batteries, under the Biden administration.
12:47How should Japan face the second Trump administration?
12:54In the first Trump administration,
12:56Prime Minister Abe established a special relationship with Mr. Trump,
13:00and Japan and the U.S. were able to maintain a good relationship.
13:07Prime Minister Ishiba, who will face Mr. Trump in the future,
13:10has become the lower half of the ruling party.
13:15In a word, I felt very friendly.
13:19I felt that he was a person who could speak his mind,
13:23rather than adorning or making up words.
13:30It is said that he confirmed that he will meet with Mr. Trump as soon as possible,
13:35but what kind of relationship will he build?
13:41In addition, there will be a battle between Ukraine and the Middle East in two regions,
13:47and attention will be drawn to what kind of diplomacy will be developed.
13:53Regarding the Ukrainian situation,
13:55Mr. Trump has argued that if he was appointed as president,
13:59he would end the war within 24 hours,
14:03but there is a concern that it would be a favorable situation for Russia.
14:10On June 6, Ukraine's President Zelensky held a meeting on the phone with Mr. Trump.
14:16It is his idea to create a personal trust relationship and prevent it from leaning towards Russia.
14:25On the other hand, on the 7th, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his condolences to Mr. Trump,
14:31and said that his intention to end the crisis in Ukraine was at least noteworthy.
14:40On top of that, he expressed his willingness to have a dialogue.
14:47How will Mr. Trump act?
14:53Today, we will focus on these three themes and deepen our discussion.
14:57First of all, Japan's preparation is okay.
15:01It is said that Mr. Trump is already on the phone with more than 70 people,
15:07but Prime Minister Ishiba was on the phone with Mr. Trump on the 7th.
15:10The time was about 5 minutes.
15:12By the way, it was 25 minutes with French President Macron and 12 minutes with Korean President Yoon.
15:18And the content was that Prime Minister Ishiba felt friendly in a word.
15:23He said that he had the impression that he was a person who could talk about his intentions,
15:26and agreed to raise the Japan-US alliance to a higher level.
15:32In addition, Prime Minister Ishiba is looking for talks in the United States after attending an international conference in South America this mid-month.
15:40The background of this early contact is the successful experience of Prime Minister Abe,
15:45who built a strong relationship with Mr. Trump.
15:48In November 2016, when Mr. Trump won the presidential election,
15:53Mr. Abe visited the Trump Tower in New York and gained personal trust of Mr. Trump.
16:00Mr. Hosokawa, it was only 5 minutes. What do you think?
16:04Well, I think this is a symbolic event.
16:11If you say 5 minutes, if you put in a translation, it's a round-trip, so it's probably 1-2 minutes to talk.
16:21I'm just done with this kind of polite conversation.
16:30I don't think it's just a matter of time. I think it's a matter of substance.
16:36In Korea, for example, it's 12 minutes. It's a long time in Japan.
16:41The contents of the conversation are also made clear.
16:45From President Yoon, he briefly explained the recent situation in North Korea,
16:50and said, oh, that's how it's been recently.
16:53Mr. Trump can't talk directly, so he's inputting that properly.
16:58On the other hand, Mr. Trump is now talking about Korean shipbuilding.
17:03Specifically, the shipbuilding industry is more of an American military ship.
17:10The manufacturing industry is depressed, so it's no good.
17:15America is talking about cooperating fully.
17:20So the substance is clear.
17:24Mr. Trump has been briefed on that in advance.
17:28I think that's pretty serious.
17:32Maybe before you talk on the phone, there's a briefing.
17:38Of course, you'll be asked what kind of person Mr. Ishiba is.
17:44I was talking to a Washington official.
17:48He said, there's a possibility that only a negative image has been inputted.
17:55The negative image is that he's an Asian version of NATO.
18:01It's not a good thing. From the other side, it's a sense of suspicion.
18:06Second, it's said that Abe's heart is sexual.
18:11Third, is this really a long-term policy?
18:16I've been talking to various officials on the phone.
18:21They're all in a long-term policy.
18:26If it's not a long-term policy,
18:31I don't know what to do as a foreign policy partner.
18:36We need to be aware that we're dealing with some of these elements.
18:41We need to figure out how we're going to deal with them.
18:46That's the first step.
18:49I've been talking to Mr. Abe for 20 minutes.
18:54Eight years ago.
18:57Even if it's just a phone call,
19:03I think it's a symbolic thing.
19:06Mr. Kotani, what do you think?
19:08Mr. Ishiwa said it was a friendly conversation.
19:11That's true. Mr. Trump is a very friendly person.
19:15He says he can talk about his true feelings.
19:18Mr. Trump doesn't talk about his true feelings.
19:21I think he's misunderstanding Mr. Trump.
19:24Mr. Trump doesn't say what he's trying to do.
19:27I think it's a misunderstanding that he can talk about his true feelings on the phone.
19:34The Japanese government has been doing a lot of Trump shifts since last year.
19:41I've signed a consular contract with people who are likely to be Trump supporters.
19:47I've come to realize that those people are not going to run for office this time.
19:52The pipes that the Japanese government has built may not function very well.
19:57That may be due to the fact that the time for phone calls has not been decided.
20:02It may also be due to the fact that there was not much substance.
20:06I think we need to re-establish this quickly.
20:10In the program, I briefly summarized what kind of demands will come to Japan as the Trump administration.
20:19For example, the burden of defense spending, direct investment from Japan, importation of agricultural products,
20:24Of course, the improvement of trade, importation of energy, contribution to the semiconductor industry.
20:30Mr. Yoshizaki, what are you paying attention to in the future?
20:35I think it's important that Mr. Trump hasn't decided what to do.
20:41I think it's important that Mr. Trump hasn't decided what to do.
20:46For example, there is already talk in Japan that defense spending should be reduced from 2% to 3% GDP.
20:56This is already in his hands.
21:00So, Mr. Trump likes negotiations, but it's not a negotiation, it's a deal, right?
21:06Negotiations, for example, are like silver-plating negotiations.
21:10There's something he's aiming for.
21:12In the case of Mr. Trump, it's actually not silver-plating.
21:16It could be a summer vacation, a special vacation, or a pension.
21:21When you're fighting such an opponent,
21:25It's probably the opposite effect to say, I'm worried about this, I'm worried about this.
21:31This time, Mr. Ishiba has a low profile.
21:36The worst scenario I can think of is that he'll be shot without an article.
21:42I don't know.
21:44I think it might be better to be a little more low profile.
21:49How about you, Mr. Hosokawa?
21:51I have a slightly different view.
21:55For example, Mr. Trump has a huge problem with the end of trade.
22:03There's a balance in the US-Japan relationship.
22:05There's a document you provided us with.
22:07How should we look at this?
22:09This is the balance of exports from Japan and imports from the United States.
22:15From Japan, it's 9 trillion yen in black money.
22:19From the United States, it's 9 trillion yen in red money.
22:22Of course, they're trying to reduce this.
22:25What happened to the former Prime Minister Abe at that time?
22:29He showed us with a simple punch that Japan is contributing to the employment and industry of the United States through investment.
22:37That's what it was from the beginning.
22:39Then, there's the bottom line of direct investment, right?
22:43That's 1.8 times bigger than it was eight years ago.
22:49Direct investment from the United States to Japan?
22:52No, it's the other way around.
22:55No, it's the other way around.
22:58Direct investment from the United States to Japan?
23:00No, it's the other way around.
23:02I'm sorry, I'm sorry.
23:04Direct investment from the United States to Japan.
23:06This is 1.8 times bigger than it was eight years ago.
23:12It's very important to say that this contribution is simple.
23:17Direct investment also contributes to employment.
23:20That's right.
23:22Let's go back to the beginning.
23:25There's a demand, right?
23:27I'm not going to answer this demand.
23:31On the contrary, it's an example of Korea's increase in trade.
23:36The U.S. defense industry is already bad.
23:40When it's at a disadvantage, Japan can make such a contribution.
23:44The Defense Ministry has been working on Japan-U.S. cooperation in the defense industry since this year.
23:50Korea is doing it, too.
23:52I've been told by Trump that Korea's increase in trade will help him.
24:00Japan is doing it, too.
24:05Not only increase in trade, but also aircraft.
24:09Japan has been doing it since this year.
24:11Then Japan will cooperate with the U.S. defense industry.
24:15It's not just buying weapons from the U.S.
24:18Of course, we'll do that, too.
24:21Mr. Ishiba, you should know which weapons will be the most popular.
24:27I think another important thing is energy.
24:30Mr. Trump's pledge is to dig up and dig up oil and natural gas.
24:39It's good to dig, but it has to sell.
24:42Then Japan will buy.
24:44It's not just Japan.
24:46Even when the U.S. exports to other countries, Japan will negotiate and help.
24:54It's easy to understand that Japan will contribute to reducing U.S. trade deficits.
25:02When Mr. Abe went to the Trump Tower, there was a punchline like that.
25:06That's right.
25:09I think the key words are defense industry and energy cooperation.
25:15I think it's better to have this kind of industrial cooperation as soon as possible.
25:19I don't think it's a requirement.
25:22Mr. Kotani, what do you think?
25:24I'm talking to people who will be in the Trump administration this time.
25:29What the allies, including Japan, want is autonomy.
25:34I want the allies to tell the U.S. what they can do.
25:42I think we need to be more proactive in making suggestions.
25:51For example, the issue of cyber security.
25:55The U.S. is very concerned about Japan's cyber security system.
26:00I think we need to be more proactive.
26:04I think we need to be more proactive in making suggestions.
26:11I think we need to be more proactive in making suggestions.
26:19I think we need to be more proactive in making suggestions.
26:27Mr. Abe, you said that if it's a national issue, we should be proactive.
26:32But I think we don't have to be afraid of things that will be disadvantageous.
26:38I think we shouldn't try to imitate Mr. Abe.
26:41The situation is too different from that time.
26:43The situation is too different from that time.
26:46There are examples, but if you try to imitate them, you may be deepened.
26:53On the other hand, Mr. Abe's legacy remains in the Foreign Ministry.
26:58On the other hand, Mr. Abe's legacy remains in the Foreign Ministry.
27:03I think it will be difficult if we don't think of a different approach.
27:08I think it will be difficult if we don't think of a different approach.
27:13Is there a change in Trump's economic policy scenario?
27:21Is there a change in Trump's economic policy scenario?
27:27First of all, let's look at Trump's domestic policy.
27:3110% to 20% of the country's imported goods will be subsidized.
27:3660% of Chinese goods will be subsidized.
27:39And the current tax will be reduced.
27:42The current tax will be reduced.
27:48As you can see, the current tax will be reduced.
27:54The current tax will be reduced.
27:59In addition, the government will be able to dismiss government officials under the so-called Schedule F.
28:08In addition, the government will be able to dismiss government officials under the so-called Schedule F.
28:11I think it's the environmental energy policy.
28:14I think it's the environmental energy policy.
28:19I think it will have a great impact on the depletion of carbon.
28:28Mr. Kotani.
28:30It's about tariffs.
28:32The first and second tariffs are slightly different.
28:36The first tariff was to reduce trade deficit.
28:42The second tariff is to regain the industry that has left the country.
28:48This will lead to a reduction in tariffs.
28:52Of course, we don't know if the Chinese companies will return to the U.S.
28:57I think it's more likely to go to Southeast Asia.
29:01At least, the government will regain the industry that has left the country.
29:06And the government will bring the industry from overseas to the U.S.
29:11This is what Mr. Vance is drawing up.
29:16This is what Mr. Vance is drawing up.
29:19I think it's a tariff policy with different meanings.
29:22Let's look at the contents of the tariffs.
29:25Here are the tariffs that Mr. Trump is thinking about.
29:28There are three large tariffs.
29:29All imports from all countries will be taxed 10% to 20%.
29:35China will be taxed 60% of what is made in China.
29:40And Mexico will be taxed 25% of goods that are illegally imported or left unattended.
29:46If there is no improvement in the legal sense, it will be raised gradually.
29:50In addition, it is said that importers from Mexico will be taxed more than 100%.
29:55In addition, there is a view that the U.S., Mexico, Canada and the U.S.M.C.A. will require strict conditions when reviewing the 2026 agreement.
30:07Mr. Hosokawa, what do you think about this tariff?
30:10As Mr. Kotani said,
30:13the most important thing is that the U.S. has fundamentally cut costs in industrial production.
30:26For some reason, this means that China's production in 2025 will gradually subsidize its own supply chain.
30:36There is also a question of how to respond to this movement.
30:40The U.S. and the U.S.M.C.A. and the U.S.M.C.A. and the U.S.M.C.A. and the U.S.M.C.A. and the U.S.M.C.A.
30:45and the U.S.M.C.A. and the U.S.M.C.A. and the U.S.M.C.A. and the U.S.M.C.A.
30:48and the U.S.M.C.A. and the U.S.M.C.A. and the U.S.M.C.A. and the U.S.M.C.A.
30:51and the U.S.M.C.A. and the U.S.M.C.A. and the U.S.M.C.A. and the U.S.M.C.A.
30:54Until now, the traditional political name was steel and automobiles,
31:01but I think the other thing here is the semiconductor.
31:05This is a new phenomenon.
31:08Now, Samson and TSMC are trying to win Biden's favor with a huge amount of funds,
31:14but in an industry that supports the public,
31:19in Japan, the equipment manufacturers and material manufacturers are strong,
31:23so they want to invest in the U.S.
31:26It's going to be like this all the time.
31:28At that time, one of the questions is how this kind of inertia will work.
31:32And the other thing is that Lighthizer will probably come in as a foreign company from now on.
31:38There was a report this morning that he was appointed as the representative of USTR.
31:44I think that Japan has also joined the trade agreement in the first phase.
31:52Even if you look at his letter,
31:54Lighthizer has a successful experience that he was able to push the import of Japanese agricultural products.
32:08Then, this time, what will he say to Japan by using this inertia as a weapon?
32:15I'm sure there will be a shortage of agricultural products.
32:19So, I think it's very important to face that.
32:23Mr. Kotani, you're holding it like this,
32:26but from an American consumer's point of view,
32:28it's a story where the price of things is going up.
32:31It's also said to be an inflationary factor.
32:33Last time, you threw a pretty high ball and used it for a lot of negotiations.
32:39How serious is this?
32:41How do you see the final settlement?
32:46Basically, I think he's throwing the highest ball.
32:50Of course, there should be a willingness to use negotiations as a material.
32:55For example, in an ally country like Japan,
32:57I think there is room for negotiation in terms of this one-size-fits-all.
33:01On the other hand, the other side is looking for a return,
33:05so I think we have to be prepared for what we can put out.
33:09It's not that there's no room for negotiation at all,
33:12but rather, we want to negotiate.
33:15For Mr. Trump, it's more important to negotiate than to have a content.
33:20So, I think it will be necessary as wisdom to negotiate something
33:24and to put something in there that will expand Japan's territory.
33:30I'm sure there's the issue of tariffs, right?
33:34Including the allies in the upper tier,
33:39and 60% against China,
33:43the meanings are completely different.
33:45Against China, it's more like decoupling.
33:50It's a Trump administration that says it's equal,
33:55so how do we stop cheap things from China?
34:00And domestic employment.
34:03So, the meaning of this 60%,
34:06and including 10% to 20% of the allies,
34:09as Mr. Kotani said,
34:11is to negotiate with the allies,
34:13and to use it as a tool, as a threat.
34:16If we negotiate and get something else,
34:18like Japan's agricultural products,
34:20or other private property,
34:23this threat can be contained.
34:27So, the meaning is different.
34:28Mr. Hosokawa, what I'm curious about is,
34:30as I understand it,
34:32you're trying to transfer a lot of your production to Mexico, right?
34:36Yes.
34:37So, what's the percentage against Mexico?
34:41At this point, you can't just separate the Chinese
34:44and impose tariffs on them.
34:46If you do that, you'll get caught up in that.
34:50You're right.
34:52In Mexico, the lower tier,
34:56China's exportation to the U.S.
35:00is being restricted,
35:02so in order to prevent that,
35:04they're importing to Mexico.
35:06That's where the focus is.
35:08So, because of that,
35:10there's an agreement with Mexico,
35:12the USMCA,
35:14but it doesn't work anymore,
35:16so they're trying to strengthen it.
35:19But, as Mr. Yamakawa said,
35:21it's not like only Chinese companies
35:23are moving to Mexico.
35:25So, based on this agreement,
35:27based on the current agreement,
35:29Japanese companies and Japanese automakers
35:31are moving out.
35:33And, more importantly,
35:35Big Three also built factories here.
35:37So, as you said,
35:39you can't just target Chinese companies,
35:43so how do you deal with that?
35:45That's a delicate question.
35:47Even for Japanese companies,
35:49there are 330 companies in Mexico
35:51that are related to automobiles.
35:54I'm also curious about the market.
35:57At the moment,
35:59there's a lot of stock prices
36:01in the Trump trade.
36:03What's going to happen
36:05in the future?
36:07In the Trump administration,
36:09there was a lot of stock prices,
36:11and while it was popular,
36:13there was a 56% increase.
36:15I'm also curious about
36:17the influx of various policies.
36:19By the way,
36:21the Trump administration
36:23has been talking about
36:25raising tariffs,
36:27continuing taxes,
36:29and taking measures
36:31against illegal immigrants.
36:33All of these are influx factors.
36:35By the way,
36:37during the Trump administration,
36:39even though it was COVID-19,
36:41there was no influx.
36:43Mr. Yoshisaki,
36:45what's going to happen
36:47to the market in this area?
36:49Now that it's triple red,
36:51it's the Trump trade.
36:53I think this image
36:55was probably too strong
36:57in 2016.
36:59In 2016,
37:01everyone thought
37:03Hillary would win.
37:05The House of Representatives
37:07were both on the same side,
37:09but when they thought
37:11the administration wouldn't move,
37:13they couldn't believe
37:15that Trump would win.
37:17But this time,
37:19everyone was watching
37:21whether Trump or Harris would win.
37:23Then, the House of Representatives
37:25saw the majority vote
37:27from the beginning,
37:29so one out of three
37:31was likely to win.
37:33I don't think
37:35the expiration date
37:37of the current Trump trade
37:39is that long.
37:41You mean the US stock market?
37:43Yes.
37:45In fact,
37:47in the Biden administration,
37:49the inflation rate
37:51Trump raised
37:53was not decreasing at all.
37:55In fact,
37:57the import price
37:59was rising,
38:01so the inflation rate
38:03was much higher
38:05than that of Trump.
38:07That's why
38:09the current price
38:11is rising.
38:13I don't know
38:15if the situation will change
38:17at once,
38:19but I don't think
38:21it will be that big.
38:23You two said
38:25that the inflation rate
38:27will be quite different
38:29this time,
38:31but I don't think
38:33the inflation rate
38:35will be that big.
38:37I don't know
38:39if the inflation rate
38:41will be that big.
38:43I think you should be careful
38:45about that.
38:47After the commercial,
38:49I wonder if the two wars will end.
38:55Next, the third theme.
38:57Ukraine and the Middle East.
38:59I wonder if the two wars
39:01will end.
39:03First of all,
39:05here is the foreign security
39:07minister holding the key.
39:09The foreign security minister
39:11holds the key people.
39:13Mr. Kotani,
39:15do you have any information?
39:17There was an expression
39:19of Trump 2.0 in Nakazuri,
39:21but I think we will face
39:23Trump version 0.
39:25In other words,
39:27the second term of the government
39:29will be a foreign minister
39:31who will remain
39:33true to Trump's true instincts.
39:35Those who had the possibility
39:37to enter,
39:39for example,
39:41Robert O'Brien,
39:43if he enters,
39:45he will suppress
39:47Trump's true instincts
39:49and make him a decent foreign minister.
39:51However,
39:53Mr. O'Brien did not
39:55enter this time.
39:57I think Pompeo
39:59is also a foreign minister,
40:01but his name
40:03has been changed
40:05to Mr. O'Brien,
40:07so he is not
40:09a foreign minister anymore.
40:11Mr. Mahatty
40:13is also a foreign minister,
40:15but his name is
40:17Mr. O'Brien.
40:19There are people
40:21who are convinced
40:23that Trump's true instincts
40:25will be realized
40:27as a policy.
40:29Moreover,
40:31as I mentioned
40:33Mr. Mahatty
40:35is a member of
40:37the Triple Red Party,
40:39and many people
40:41support him.
40:43Therefore,
40:45there is no need
40:47to suppress Trump.
40:49The people are
40:51moving rapidly
40:53after winning the election,
40:55but both parties
40:57are at the stage
40:59of being exterminated.
41:01Let's look at
41:03the two wars.
41:05The position of Biden
41:07and Trump is different.
41:09First, regarding Ukraine,
41:11the Biden administration
41:13supported Ukraine militarily
41:15and denied Russia's
41:17initiative to stop the war.
41:19On the other hand,
41:21Mr. Trump said
41:23that if he were president,
41:25he would end the war
41:27within 24 hours.
41:29Mr. Gotani,
41:31you said that
41:33both parties would end the war,
41:35but what will happen?
41:37The purpose of the war
41:39is to stop the war.
41:41Regarding Ukraine,
41:43the current situation
41:45is that
41:47in exchange for
41:49weapons support,
41:51the Zelensky administration
41:53will ask for a ceasefire.
41:55Regarding the stolen territory,
41:57the Zelensky administration
41:59will ask for a ceasefire
42:01after the ceasefire.
42:03As a plan,
42:05you often said that
42:07you would make the area
42:09a non-armed zone.
42:11Is that what Russia
42:13is actually managing?
42:15I haven't thought about
42:17such details yet.
42:19As a big picture,
42:21we must first have a ceasefire.
42:23I don't think
42:25the Zelensky administration
42:27will be able to
42:29oppose the ceasefire.
42:31The Zelensky administration
42:33will ask for a ceasefire
42:35in exchange for
42:37weapons support.
42:39The Zelensky administration
42:41will ask for a ceasefire
42:43in exchange for
42:45weapons support.
42:47What about Israel?
42:49The purpose of the ceasefire
42:51is to stop the war
42:53between Israel and Iran.
42:55President Biden
42:57and President Trump
42:59will put pressure on
43:01Prime Minister Netanyahu
43:03to make the ceasefire
43:05before or after
43:07the election.
43:09If Prime Minister Netanyahu
43:11stops the war,
43:13it will become
43:15a trump card.
43:17Yes.
43:19On the other hand,
43:21President Trump will
43:23put pressure on
43:25Prime Minister Netanyahu
43:27to make the ceasefire
43:29before or after
43:31the election.
43:33Mr. Yoshida,
43:35what do you think
43:37about the foreign security
43:39guarantee?
43:41The leaders of
43:43dangerous places
43:45like Putin,
43:47Xi Jinping,
43:49they all remember
43:51the Trump administration.
43:53Including Mr. Erdogan
43:55and Mr. Modi.
43:57From their perspective,
43:59it's like,
44:01welcome back.
44:03If you look at
44:05the G7,
44:07it's hard to meet
44:09the Trump administration
44:11again.
44:13But from the G20,
44:15it's easy to calculate
44:17Maybe
44:19to end the war
44:21in the true sense of the word,
44:23to bring peace,
44:25it's a bit dubious.
44:27But if we stop the war,
44:29I think we have a good chance.
44:31Mr. Hosokawa,
44:33what do you think?
44:35The international order
44:37is changing
44:39from rules to deals.
44:41We have to
44:43see this truth.
44:45So,
44:47Mr. Trump himself,
44:49as I said,
44:51he's in a relationship
44:53with the rightists.
44:55Along with that,
44:57Mr. Modi
44:59as well,
45:01Mr. Trump himself
45:03has no interest
45:05in human rights,
45:07democracy,
45:09or the Biden administration.
45:11Then everyone
45:13will start a deal.
45:15The values will be blown away.
45:17We have to realize
45:19that we are entering
45:21a world like that.
45:23Mr. Kotani,
45:25what do you think
45:27about Xi Jinping
45:29becoming Trump?
45:31Of course,
45:33there are some concerns
45:35about the tariffs,
45:37but there is a possibility
45:39of a big deal.
45:41I think we can think
45:43about that.
45:45Is there still room
45:47for negotiation
45:49compared to the Biden administration
45:51forming an alliance
45:53and establishing
45:55a middle ground?
45:57Especially the Taiwan issue.
45:59If we do well on the Taiwan issue,
46:01we can weaken
46:03the U.S. commitment.
46:05There is a possibility
46:07that a lot of foreign influence
46:09will come from the U.S.
46:11The big difference
46:13over the past 8 years
46:15is that the U.S.
46:17is getting stronger
46:19in the middle ground.
46:21The Biden administration
46:23is all about
46:25the pressure from the U.S.
46:27The Trump administration
46:29still has that structure,
46:31so the U.S.
46:33will not be able
46:35to weaken the U.S.
46:37What do you think?
46:39I think the U.S.
46:41will make a big move.
46:43However,
46:45the Trump administration
46:47and the U.S.
46:49have different ideas.
46:51I think the U.S.
46:53will make a move,
46:55but the Trump administration
46:57will have to leave
46:59a legacy,
47:01so we need to
47:03make a deal
47:05Do you think the U.S.
47:07will be able to make a big move?
47:09I think the U.S.
47:11will make a big move
47:13in the first 100 days.
47:15It will be a big blow
47:17to the Trump administration.
47:19I don't think
47:21there will be anyone
47:23who can stop the U.S.
47:25That's all for today.
47:27After the commercial break,
47:29we will have market information.
47:36Tomorrow's guest is
47:38Ogawa Junya,
47:40chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party.
47:42He will talk about
47:44the policies of the party
47:46and its cooperation with the people.
47:48Let's take a look at the market.
47:50The New York Dow Jones
47:52was at its peak
47:54in the New York stock market
47:56on the 8th.
47:58The end price was
48:00$43,988, which is $259.
48:02Nasdaq, which has a high
48:04return on investment,
48:06was at its peak
48:08on the 4th.
48:10The end price was
48:12$19,286, which is $17.
48:14The end price of the New York
48:16foreign exchange market
48:18was $1,152.60 to $1,070,
48:20which is $30,000.
48:22The daily average in Chicago
48:24was $39,135.
48:26It is $365 cheaper
48:28than the end price
48:30on Friday.
48:32The end price of the U.S. stock market
48:34was $39,135.
48:36It is $39,135.
48:38It is $39,135.
48:40It is $39,135.
48:42It is $39,135.
48:44It is $39,135.
48:46It is $39,135.
48:48It is $39,135.
48:50It is $39,135.
48:52It is $39,135.
48:54It is $39,135.
48:56It is $39,135.
48:58It is $39,135.
49:00It is true that it was decided
49:02without hesitation.
49:04Mr. Yoshizaki,
49:06how do you feel?
49:08You both said that
49:10the sense of opacity changed
49:12or collapsed,
49:14but the real problem is
49:16that there is a different sense of opacity
49:18in front of us.
49:20However, this sense of opacity
49:22is not a bad thing for the stock market.
49:24It is often said that a big market
49:26is born with a meeting.
49:28However, when you are worried
49:30about what will happen,
49:32it is not bad for the stock market.
49:34I think there is enough
49:36around 40,000 yen.
49:38The problem is beyond that.
49:40It is beyond the end of December.
49:42It is beyond the end of December.
49:44I am worried about
49:46the impact of President Trump.
49:48I am worried about
49:50the impact of President Trump.
49:52According to the plan,
49:54APEC,
49:56I am worried about
49:58whether it will work
50:00with the stock market.
50:02That's all for today.
50:04Thank you very much.
50:26Thank you very much.