Hezbollah announced on Tuesday that it has chosen cleric Naim Kassem to lead the Lebanese militant group after the killing of its longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike on a Beirut suburb in late September. FRANCE 24's Sharon Gaffney speaks to David Wood, Senior Analyst for Lebanon at ICG. Amid talk of potential ceasefire negotiations, he says that Hezbollah is not in a position of weakness where it would accept any terms in order to get a truce.
Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Welcome to Apropos, the Iranian president is insisting that his appointment will strengthen
00:07the Hezbollah resistance. Sheikh Naeem Qasem has been chosen to succeed the militant group's
00:13long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed last month in an Israeli airstrike
00:18on a suburb of Beirut. His deputy for over three decades, the 71-year-old, is set to
00:24play a key role in truce negotiations. Eliza Herbert has more.
00:30For more than three decades, Sheikh Naeem Qasem was Hezbollah's deputy leader and dedicated
00:36spokesperson for the group.
00:41We as Hezbollah will continue to acquire strength, increase in number and prepare as much equipment
00:48as we can in order to persist on the field, facing Israel and those behind it.
00:57Now he has claimed the top spot. On Tuesday, Hezbollah's Shura council chose Qasem to
01:02succeed Hassan Nasrallah as secretary general, after he was killed in an Israeli strike on
01:08September 27th. But it was not a straightforward succession path.
01:14In the months since, Hezbollah has suffered a series of blows. Just weeks after Nasrallah's
01:19death, Hashem Safieddine, considered his most likely predecessor, was also killed in an
01:24Israeli airstrike. And the Israeli government has already warned that Qasem could be next.
01:32His tenure in this position may be the shortest in the history of this terrorist organisation
01:37if he follows in the footsteps of his predecessors, Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine.
01:43Qasem was born in 1953 to a family from south Lebanon and he was raised in Beirut. In 1982
01:50he became one of Hezbollah's founding members and often spoke on behalf of the group when
01:55Nasrallah was in hiding. However, Qasem has his shortcomings. Significantly,
02:01he was not particularly involved in military matters, which were mostly managed by Safieddine
02:06and Nasrallah. Since his predecessor's death, he has vowed the group will keep fighting
02:11Israel, but has also shown openness towards a ceasefire in Lebanon.
02:17To discuss, we're joined now by David Woods, journalist and senior analyst for Lebanon
02:22at the International Crisis Group. Thank you so much for being with us on the programme
02:26this evening, David. So Qasem, he's one of Hezbollah's founding members, was Nasrallah's
02:32deputy for more than three decades. Talk to us a little bit about the significance of
02:37this appointment. It won't have come really as a surprise, but do you expect it to result
02:42in a broader shift in Hezbollah's direction? So I think that Naim Qasem is a pragmatic
02:50and safe choice by Hezbollah as the new leader. As you mentioned, for over three decades,
02:55he was the deputy leader of the party and he's someone who's been with the party since
02:59his earliest days. We also know that with someone like him, he's very well known, not
03:05just to Hezbollah's supporters, but a well-known figure in Lebanon and also to the international
03:09community. Also, as you point out, he's not Nasrallah. I mean, they're incredibly big
03:15shoes to fill. Nasrallah was someone who was very charismatic and deeply involved in military
03:20strategy. Naim Qasem has been always considered more of a spiritual leader for the party.
03:26And also, it's very likely that more likely number one choices, including Hesham Safieddin
03:31and perhaps other senior Hezbollah figures, have fallen prey to Israel's targeted assassinations,
03:38which have really ramped up in the past six weeks. On the other hand, it's worth remembering
03:42that while these ceasefire negotiations are going on, even before Naim Qasem officially
03:47became the secretary general today, Hezbollah has been continuing with its rocket and missile
03:52launches into northern Israel and has also continued to put up a seemingly stiff resistance
03:56to the ground invasion of Israel in southern Lebanon. So while Qasem might not have been
04:01the number one choice, it does not seem likely to alter the course of the war that he has
04:05ended up being the secretary general. And he's set to play a key role in any future
04:10truce negotiations. Will it be him who will ultimately have to decide if Hezbollah accepts
04:16a ceasefire? What kind of a role do you think he's going to play? So Naim Qasem, as a senior
04:21figure in Hezbollah, will obviously have a voice and a position at the table in those
04:26sorts of negotiations. But Hezbollah is an institution that has processes in place.
04:32Most of the members of the Shura Council, which guides the ultimate direction of the party,
04:38still survive and are finding ways to communicate, evidently, it would seem.
04:41So they will also be involved in the decision. I think it's also important to not discount the
04:45role of Iran, which has reportedly taken a more direct role in the military strategy of Hezbollah.
04:52And equally, Iran will be involved in negotiations for any kind of ceasefire in Lebanon.
04:56But do you think that he would be more open perhaps than his predecessor in accepting
05:01some kind of truce that is different if there is, for example, a truce also agreed for Gaza?
05:09So as we know, Hezbollah from the start of this conflict back in October
05:14last year had insisted that it would not stand down until there was a ceasefire in Gaza.
05:18Now, in recent weeks, after Israel's massive escalations against the group,
05:23it seems as though Hezbollah is showing more flexibility. And Naim Qasem himself has already
05:28said in his public addresses as the acting leader of Hezbollah that he supports truce negotiations.
05:34While these negotiations should be encouraged, it's also worth noting that Hezbollah is clearly
05:39not in a position of weakness where it would accept just any terms in order to get a ceasefire.
05:44So while there might be a ceasefire in Lebanon without a ceasefire in Gaza,
05:48it cannot be on terms that would effectively amount to a complete surrender of Hezbollah.
05:52Yeah, because he had previously claimed after Nasrallah's assassination that the group's
05:57military capabilities remained intact. You say they're not as weak as perhaps some analysts
06:04would believe, but they must be to a certain degree following the deaths of so many of their
06:08fighters and of so many of their senior leaders. Oh, without a doubt. In the past six weeks,
06:15since mid-September, Hezbollah has suffered very severe losses, not just in these assassinations
06:20of senior leaders, but also through the attacks on communications devices. And of course,
06:25these massive aerial bombing campaigns in not just the south of Lebanon, but also in the Bekaa Valley
06:31and the southern suburbs of Beirut. But on the other hand, as we're seeing during this period,
06:36ever since that massive escalation started, Hezbollah has maintained its rocket and missile
06:40fire into northern Israel and is still clearly coordinating and mounting a resistance to the
06:45ground invasion in the south. So while undoubtedly Hezbollah's military capabilities have been
06:50weakened, we don't know how much. And what we do know for sure, however, is that it's clear the
06:55party is not down and out in its confrontation with Israel. Israel also, it's been, of course,
07:00trying to eliminate, as it says, all of Hezbollah's senior leaders. Does the fact
07:05that it was able, the group was able to just appoint a new leader so quickly, even though
07:11it's been several weeks since his predecessor's death, does that suggest, though, that Israel's
07:16objective here is impossible? I think it's impossible to completely eliminate Hezbollah
07:24as an institution. Now, already Israel has threatened to track down and assassinate Naim
07:29Asim. But it's clear that within a party as institutionalized as Hezbollah, they will
07:35eventually find a way to replace any leader who is assassinated. The question, of course,
07:39is how many of these severe blows can Hezbollah suffer and continue to operate effectively as a
07:45military actor? We don't know how long that would take. But what we do know is that as we're seeing
07:49with this ground invasion, that Israel, by entering on the ground in Lebanon, which it
07:54sees is necessary to achieve its war objectives, is suffering significant casualties. And that will
07:59have an impact on Israel's calculus about truce negotiations, and whether it wants to continue
08:05to prosecute this war, which is disastrous, not just for Hezbollah and Lebanon, but also
08:10increasingly for Israel. And David, Hassem's appointment, does that suggest to you that
08:15Hezbollah is running its own affairs rather than advisors in Iran? What would your view be on that?
08:23I think it's really impossible to tell from outside the party exactly how coordination is
08:28going on between the leadership. And this, of course, has been massively complicated
08:33by the fact that Israel has not just infiltrated the party with intelligence sources, but also with
08:37these attacks on communication devices, which make the bare act of talking to each other,
08:42especially as senior leaders, much more difficult. However, while the party remains
08:48operational on some level, it is clear that Iran is taking more direct interest and involvement in
08:54what the party is doing, and would have obviously been involved in discussions about who would
08:58replace Nasrallah as the permanent secretary general. David, you're also a journalist as well
09:03as being an analyst. If we can look to what is happening in Gaza, UNRWA, the UN agency,
09:09banned from operating in Israel. Do we know how many journalists, how many UN staff have
09:14been killed there at this stage in the war? I don't have the specifics on those figures,
09:20but if we're talking about UNRWA and this decision to ban it, that could have disastrous
09:25consequences for Gaza and also for the West Bank and everywhere that UNRWA operates within
09:31Palestine. And the obvious reason for that is that so many Palestinians rely on this agency
09:37for bare essentials. And while there's this assumption that other UN agencies could step
09:42into the breach, and maybe they can with emergency supplies like food, issues such as education and
09:48healthcare are things that UNRWA provides directly to Palestinians and there is no viable alternative
09:53to that, which could of course lead to further radicalisation and of course the deepening of the
09:59humanitarian and development crisis that already exists in Gaza. And some observers have described
10:04the move to ban the agency as essentially a declaration of war against the United Nations.
10:10What now for Israeli-UN relations? They were obviously before this not in a good place.
10:18I mean, I think already Israeli-UN relations are approaching rock bottom and we've seen also in
10:24Lebanon that there has been a massive spat caused by Israeli attacks that have been wounding various
10:32peacekeepers who are with the UN peacekeeping force UNIFIL in the south of Lebanon. So
10:36this is part of a wider trend where clearly Israel views the United Nations as a hostile actor.
10:42On the other hand, really, while the UN will continue to press for calm and a ceasefire and
10:48an end to the violence both in Gaza and in Lebanon and the region more generally, it's
10:51incumbent on the United States really, as Israel's main ally and patron, to apply serious pressure to
10:57Israel to de-escalate and move towards diplomatic solutions. Now that might seem quite unlikely
11:03before the presidential elections, but both presidential candidates, whether Donald Trump
11:07or Kamala Harris should win, should immediately move to really push Israel to move away from the
11:12logic of violence and towards the logic of negotiation, which is in the interest not just
11:16of the entire region, but also Israel itself. But do you think the US is likely to do that
11:20and will have any impact on what Netanyahu decides to do? Well, obviously both candidates have said
11:29that they favour a rapid conclusion to the war. We don't know exactly what will happen until we
11:34know who will be the new president. Now clearly the US has the tools to apply more pressure to
11:40Israel, not just because it provides so much political cover to Israel's activities, but also
11:46because Israel is so reliant on American arms shipments. So the tools are there. And whether
11:50there'll be political will to use it, well, the longer this conflict goes on, the greater it
11:56exposes the United States to being drawn into this conflict. And for that reason,
12:01thinking pragmatically from the American point of view, it would seem like logical for Washington
12:07to again, move Israel away from this logic of using violence to achieve its objectives and
12:12to do so through diplomacy instead. David, thank you so much for your time on the programme. We'll
12:16have to leave it there for now. That is David Wood, journalist and senior analyst for Lebanon
12:21at the International Crisis Group. Well, that's it from us.