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In Uruguay, the first results are coming in after the general election held this Sunday. To expand our analysis, teleSUR talks to international law expert, Dra Ivonne Tellez. teleSUR

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00:00In Uruguay, the first results are coming in after the general election that was held Sunday.
00:06According to the first official results, the leftist-front coalition's candidate, YamandĂș
00:10Orsi, reaches the 44 percent of the votes, while the National Party candidate, Álvaro
00:16Luis Delgado, reaches 27 percent of the votes.
00:19For its part, the Colorado Party obtained 15 percent of the ballots.
00:23If this trend is confirmed, as the vote continues its counting, Orsi and Delgado would face
00:30each other in the November 24th runoff.
00:32Also both consultations that accompanied the election day have not met the approval requirements.
00:45And now, to expand our analysis regarding Uruguay's election day, we welcome international
00:50law expert Dr. Yvonne TĂ©llez.
00:52Yvonne, to first point out, how are you?
00:56Welcome to From the South.
00:58Thank you, Belén.
00:59Delighted to be here.
01:01It's a pleasure to have you.
01:02Now, to begin the analysis, we would like to ask you about the context, really, that
01:08brings Uruguayan people to this election day.
01:11What do you think are the main topics, the main challenges, to really put in context
01:15this election day in terms of an international perspective?
01:19Perfect.
01:20Well, the upcoming election in Uruguay poses a choice about the country's future regarding
01:31whether to continue this slight shift toward more market-oriented policies and private
01:40enterprises that were initiated by the current government, or to return to a focus more to
01:47strengthen the role of the state in the economy, the social protection, and the idea of the
01:53welfare state that was characterized between 2000 and 2015 with the other left governments.
02:03What we have here are three main topics that bring Uruguayans to the ballots, and that's
02:10crime, child poverty, and the aging population.
02:15Those seem to be the main concerns, the primary concerns that voters are facing, taking into
02:22account that Uruguay is one of the most stable democracies.
02:30Maybe what this vote over here, this election, come in a time when Uruguay stands a model
02:38of political and economic stability in the region, but we have those three topics that
02:47are main concerns.
02:48Also what we see is a probable sort of decision regarding which kind of model Uruguayans want
03:02to preserve, either to go back to this idea of the welfare state, as I was saying before,
03:08or to turn into a more neoliberal, more market-oriented country.
03:16Okay, so just to go over the first results, according to these first results that are
03:25coming in, and also confirming what some analysts were expecting, apparently the Broad Front
03:32Coalition and also the National Party will be heading to a runoff on November 24th.
03:37The Broad Front has had a significant difference in these first results, but how do you think
03:43that the forces could realign in the lead to this runoff?
03:46What can we expect in the coming weeks for these parties?
03:51Okay, well, we have to consider as well that those topics have been a common point between
04:00the candidates.
04:02There are rising concerns, for example, about violent crime, drug gangs, drug dealing, corruption
04:09that has been more in the right-wing discourse more than the left one, and the left one has
04:17been more regarding, for example, the insecurity issues.
04:23So what I'm saying here is that there are some topics that have been common between
04:28those candidates, as they have said as well that they will not face like a real or a strong
04:38opposition between lines because they have some points that have a coincidence.
04:47However, if the trend continues, this possible victory of the opposition could or will occur
04:59amid a scenario of significant negotiation, and maybe if they don't achieve this parliamentary
05:07majority, that will be the first time that the Broad Front could govern in this way.
05:13So that means that some of these proposals, I think more regarding the economy more than
05:20political ones, could have an impact if we take into account as well that there have
05:27been some strong points of difference, for example, in those civil liberties or regarding,
05:33for example, what is being discussed regarding the plebiscite, the social security plebiscite,
05:43or the other one regarding the possibility of those overnight searches.
05:51So that could maybe represent a difference between both parties.
05:59However, as we've seen in their discourses, I think that the main issue will be how, for
06:10example, Uruguay will face those negotiations with China.
06:15As the Broad Front has said, they will prefer rather to continue those negotiations, for
06:21example, using the Mercosur organization and not just a direct one.
06:27So maybe those trends we can see, if they don't achieve this parliamentary majority,
06:33we can see some difficulties regarding their governability in this sense.
06:40So you were just addressing the international aspect of this possible victory of the Broad
06:47Front, and I would like to go a little bit deeper in the international repercussions
06:52of this election.
06:53What do you think that a potential win of the Broad Front could affect Uruguay's relation
06:58with other countries in the region, or in the other case, what continuities could we
07:03expect from a win of the national party?
07:06What can we expect in terms of regional integration for Uruguay?
07:11The common neighbors, the nature neighbors of Uruguay, talking about Argentina and Brazil.
07:24This left-wing trend that we have, I'm talking about those, I mean Colombia, Brazil, with
07:31Lula, with Petro, Chile as well, with Boric, could possibly reflect a deeper integration,
07:43of course, because we're talking about this left-wing ideology.
07:48However, one difficult thing will be negotiations with a natural neighbor such as Argentina.
07:54However, Uruguay has been marked by a commitment, an historical commitment, to regional integration,
08:01to the democratic values, to diplomacy, and in a way also Uruguay has positioned itself
08:08as a natural mediator and a voice for cooperation within the region.
08:14So I think what we can see if, for example, we have the Broad Front achieving the next
08:23presidency could be to strengthen the Mercosur membership.
08:28If we consider that Uruguay is a founding member of Mercosur and has been a strong advocate
08:35for this economic integration, what we can see is maybe strengthen these lines and these
08:40global south lines in the southern corn.
08:45Maybe we can, I think we can think about this relationship with Brazil and Argentina, as
08:52I was saying, maybe kind of attention regarding, for example, Argentina's new points with,
09:03for example, with Mercosur or with these natural ties.
09:08Maybe also we can see or we can foresee, for example, this participation in UNASUR and
09:15CELAC.
09:16I think, I mean, what I'm trying to say is that UNASUR, CELAC, Mercosur could be this
09:25strong and natural scenarios for Uruguay's usual position towards a regional integration
09:33and could be strengthened.
09:36Maybe if we don't see the Broad Front coming to the presidency, what we're going to see
09:45is a natural trend just to move away from this original integration and maybe try just
09:51to do a direct kind of negotiation with new partners, such as the BRICS, such as China
10:00that is turning into this big, big new partner for the region.
10:08I don't think that this progressive diplomacy and human rights position that Uruguay has
10:16upheld during this time will be changed or moved by either one of the candidates.
10:27But what we can foresee is this trade diversification efforts regarding which way Uruguay is going
10:38to prefer, even, I don't know, more diversified trade agreements, more liberal ones, or maybe
10:49more traditional ones, regional integration in a way to strengthen this welfare state.
10:58Okay, so that is interesting as you were saying that we could be looking at a stronger participation
11:06from Uruguay in the integration mechanisms, such as you were mentioning, so we will be
11:10following on that trend.
11:13So before we finish, IvĂĄn, I would like to ask you also during this election day, Uruguayans
11:18also voted on two different consultations, and for the looks of the first results, both
11:26were voted no.
11:28So I would like to ask you if there were any opinions on your part on what could indicate
11:33what led to this decision, and also to better understand how these consultations came into
11:39place in this election day.
11:43Of course, well, the plebiscite on social security emerged as a response to a recent
11:52law passed by the government, by the current president, Lacayo Pou, what he did was to
11:59erase the retirement age from 60 years to 65 years old, and to extend this individual
12:07savings system managed by the pension fund administrations.
12:11So this reform generated a strong reaction from some sectors of society, not all of them,
12:20particularly those of this labor union sector, but there was a minority that moved this plebiscite,
12:31they just reunited the 10% of the electorate, they collected the signatures of the 10% of
12:37the electorate, that was the necessary or the requirement to bring the reform to a public vote.
12:43So what Uruguayans were choosing today was three main elements, three main issues regarding
12:54the Uruguayan pension system.
12:56The first one, to reduce the retirement age again to 60, to align the minimum pensions
13:03to the national minimum wage, and to eliminate those funds, those trust funds, because according
13:12to the initiative, in a way, is like, if they try to avoid any profit, any additional
13:22profit for the pension system.
13:25So maybe what could be thought of the result regarding the no, not more, one of them was
13:38that the initiative, as I said before, was just generated by a small group from the population.
13:49And this means that they had to make like a stronger change and regarding the law, okay,
14:01and the three candidates, the running candidates or the principal candidates, they were expressing
14:07again, like a strong opposition to this reform.
14:12Maybe what could be explained regarding the result, the no result, is that this was promoted
14:23by the current candidates.
14:30And what also one strong voice was former President Mujica that was saying that to agree
14:40on the plebiscite reform could bring kind of a chaos to the pension system.
14:46So maybe this was a concern, this was an economic concern.
14:52That was one thing.
14:54The other one was the constitutional reform proposing to revise one of the constitution
15:01articles, and that is that the home and houses and homes are inviolable sanctuaries, right?
15:14And no one can enter at night without the head's consent.
15:19So one of the arguments here also was to try to just eliminate this restriction regarding
15:30the night prohibition to enter into the house or to enter into homes because or in a way
15:41to control insecurity, to control drug dealing, to control other possible crimes that could
15:50happen overnight.
15:53But that means that this has to be a constitutional reform.
15:59And I think one of the strongest arguments against it was that it was not necessary to
16:06just make a constitutional reform, but this can be done without this strong reform.
16:14Because first of all, the possibility, for example, to combat microtraffic, to combat
16:24drug dealing, to combat this insecurity could be done when, I mean, entering, for example,
16:31into storage facilities or secure storage facilities overnight.
16:38Also because, I mean, microtrafficking could happen within the homes of people, but the
16:46big drug and the big crimes or the main drug dealing points is not happening within houses
16:57or homes of normal people, but they just can be happening, for example, in those secure
17:03storage facilities or this other kind of places.
17:08And as according to the current laws, they can enter, I mean, security forces and the
17:16government could and state could enter into those storage facilities without reforming
17:22constitution.
17:23I think also one of the concerns could be that this is, in a way, a measure to overcome
17:32or to facilitate an unlawful use of force that could bring some other risks regarding,
17:40for example, just the normal civil liberties of people.
17:43So that could be a concern regarding, for example, the past dictatorships and what Uruguayans
17:52have faced before regarding the constriction of civil liberties.
17:57So I think that will be a concern and maybe that's not the best way to deal with this
18:03insecurity problems or these drug dealing problems at this time.
18:08Thank you, Yvonne, for joining us in from the South and really helping us understand,
18:15better understand what is happening today in Uruguay and we'll be sure to follow closely
18:20on this country in the coming hours and days.
18:27Pleasure is all mine.
18:30That was Dr. Cheles, international law expert on Uruguay's general election.
18:35That is underway today.

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