The US presidential election is almost here – but will we know who won on election night? Here's why it could take a while before the race is called.
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00:00The 2020 for presidential election is almost here, but it may take some time to figure
00:06out who exactly won the election.
00:08I'm John Dorman, and I'm a senior politics reporter at Business Insider.
00:12States like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, they're very close, and it would not be surprising
00:18to see those states not be called on election night, mostly because of the networks want
00:22to get it right.
00:23But there are some states, more safely Democratic or safely Republican states, those states
00:27will be called relatively early.
00:29Pennsylvania is a good example of a state where ballots can't be processed before election
00:33day, but it's going to provide a lot of clues to the eventual winner.
00:37Donald Trump on election night in 2020 had a pretty sizable advantage in Pennsylvania,
00:42but that was because a lot of smaller, more conservative counties report their results
00:46earlier.
00:47They have smaller populations, but Donald Trump's lead narrowed significantly in Pennsylvania
00:53when the vote came in from Philadelphia, which is the largest city in the state, and it's
00:57a Democratic stronghold.
00:59That was an enormous Biden advantage, allowed him to really overcome Trump.
01:03So in this election cycle in Pennsylvania, it could be several days before we know.
01:08California has a much more liberal policy when it comes to ballots being returned.
01:12The final result in California will probably not be known for a week or more, because ballots
01:18can still trickle in, and they don't have to be received by election day.
01:23While Kamala Harris is widely expected to win California very easily, I will say there
01:27are several House races that could determine the majority of the U.S. House of Representatives.
01:31So the outcome of the House could be in doubt, actually, for potentially a week or more.
01:36If those swing districts in California that are highly contested, depending on when the
01:40ballots come in, we could see a situation where we don't know who controls the House
01:44for a while.
01:45In 2020, Georgia was a state that Donald Trump at the time insisted that he won.
01:51There was no evidence of mass voting fraud in that state.
01:55He had a slight lead in the state on election night, but overnight and into the morning
02:00when votes from Democratic-leaning counties came in and votes from the suburbs and Atlanta
02:05suburbs came in, Biden was able to overtake Donald Trump at the time.
02:10And it was a big deal for Democrats.
02:12But Donald Trump contested and insisted that he had won the state.
02:17He tried to convince Brian Kemp, who was the Republican governor, and Brad Raffensperger,
02:21who's the current secretary of state.
02:22He tried to convince them to overturn the results.
02:24They refused to do it.
02:25So Georgia is, once again, expected to be very close there.
02:28But it's going to be another flashpoint in the polarization of our politics.
02:32The certification of the vote won't happen, though, until after the votes are counted.
02:37Also, if there are any particular recounts, which may occur in some of the more competitive
02:42states.
02:43The 2024 election cycle will also be a lot different than 2020, mostly because in 2020,
02:49millions of Americans chose to vote by mail.
02:52They just simply didn't want to go to the precincts because they were afraid of contracting
02:54coronavirus.
02:56This year, that's not as much of a concern.
02:58So you're likely to see more in-person voting on Election Day, but also early in-person
03:03voting, which is going on right now.
03:05The speed at which certain states report the votes, it really is going to vary.
03:10After the 2000 election in Florida, which was marred by lots of discrepancies, they
03:16passed voting reform.
03:17As a result, they're generally one of the first states to report on election night.
03:22Now that the state's a little more Republican-leaning, it may not provide an indicator of where the
03:26election's headed in this election cycle, but it is a great indicator of how a state
03:30can effectively have reforms and actually report the votes earlier.
03:34As for the outcome of the 2024 race going to the Supreme Court, we can take a look back
03:40at the year 2000, when it did go to the Supreme Court.
03:43But it was mainly because in Florida, there was actual litigation over the intent of voters
03:48when you looked at the ballot, in terms of hanging chads.
03:51I feel like that is less of an issue this year.
03:53The intent of the actual vote is one thing, but the actual certification of valid votes,
03:58it will be really hard to dispute that unless there is some sort of massive fraud, there's
04:03no indication that there will be an issue at all this year.
04:06If all goes well, we could know who won the presidency on election night.
04:10If Kamala Harris sweeps the blue wall states by a significant margin, and if she picks
04:15off most of the swing states, it will be really hard for anyone to say that Donald Trump won
04:19the election.
04:20Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump, should he win the presidential race, it will
04:24be really hard to dispute the results, especially if he has over 300 electoral votes, and he
04:28has not only a popular vote margin, but a significant electoral vote margin.
04:34But as it stands, the race is very close.
04:37We may not know who won the election for several days, but if the result comes a little
04:41sooner, there will definitely be a relief to a lot of voters who pretty much want the
04:45election to be over.