US-Polish historian Anne Applebaum has been awarded the Peace Prize of the German Book Trade. DW spoke to her about new and old autocrats, how they are collectively undermining Western democracies - and that she still has hope for democracy.
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00:39The title of your new book is
00:41Autocracy Incorporated, in English and in German,
00:44The Axis of Autocrats.
00:45What does that mean?
00:47So the book describes a network of autocracies
00:52and they are not united by ideology.
00:54So nationalist Russia, communist China,
00:57theocratic Iran, Bolivarian socialist Venezuela,
01:01North Korea, these are very different countries
01:03with different histories.
01:05But they've come to collaborate.
01:07They do so opportunistically,
01:10sometimes because of financial interests.
01:13The English title of the book hints at that.
01:16They operate a little bit like a conglomerate of companies
01:18where everybody has their own business model,
01:20but they have things in common.
01:24These are all countries where the leaders
01:27or the ruling parties operate
01:29without any kind of checks and balances,
01:32without independent judiciary or media,
01:35without the rule of law.
01:37And increasingly they seek to promote that system,
01:40their system, everywhere else as well.
01:43And increasingly they see the democratic world,
01:46our world, as a problem for them.
01:49So they're engaged in a war of ideas.
01:51It's both against their own internal critics,
01:54but it's also against us.
01:58And the book describes that and explains it.
02:00What do these autocrats have in common?
02:03Do they act together?
02:06They act together opportunistically when it suits them,
02:09when they see a reason to do it.
02:13You know, you can see, for example,
02:14right now in the war in Ukraine,
02:16this is theoretically, it's a war,
02:18you know, Russia against Ukraine.
02:20But on Russia's side, you now have drones from Iran.
02:25You have ammunition from North Korea.
02:26You now have soldiers from North Korea fighting in Ukraine.
02:30Some were killed in the past few days.
02:33And you have the Chinese who supply components
02:37and other resources to Russia
02:40that help its defense industry.
02:42So these are countries who don't necessarily
02:44have any interest in this war.
02:46I mean, there's no historical conflict
02:48between North Korea and Ukraine,
02:51but they have a financial interest in being there.
02:53You know, the Russians are paying them.
02:55Maybe they're getting technology in exchange.
02:57There's some suspicious suspicion
02:59that the Russians are helping both the North Koreans
03:01and the Iranians with their nuclear programs.
03:04The Russians may have sold Iranian proxies,
03:07some weapons that they can use in the Middle East.
03:09So there's a, you know, they have common interests
03:13rather than a common ideological goal.
03:16Has the West underestimated the autocrats?
03:20What should the West have done differently?
03:23What other mistakes of the past?
03:24So we should have understood a long time ago
03:27that trade with the autocratic world
03:30is not free of politics.
03:33That it's not as if there's a separate economic sphere
03:36where, you know, people can just trade
03:37and it doesn't have any political
03:39or strategic implications.
03:41I mean, as it turned out, for example,
03:44the Russian gas trade with Europe
03:46and especially the construction of pipelines
03:48had a very clear political purpose.
03:51The point of building pipelines across the Baltic Sea
03:54was to avoid Ukraine and Poland,
03:57probably in preparation for the invasion of Ukraine.
04:01So this was not a decision that had just some,
04:04you know, it was just about money.
04:05It was also about politics.
04:06And I think we failed to see that.
04:09And we failed to see it both because we had a belief
04:13that there could be, that trade was somehow apolitical,
04:16but also because we didn't want to see it
04:17because it would have meant
04:19making a different set of decisions
04:20that would have cost something.
04:23So I think the economic integration
04:25of the autocratic and democratic world
04:27was taken too lightheartedly.
04:29And this, of course, applies in some cases
04:31to some aspects of trade with China as well.
04:34The war against Ukraine began almost three years ago
04:37and there is no end in sight.
04:40Do you have any idea how this war might end?
04:43Do you think that a diplomatic solution is possible?
04:46So the war can only end in one way.
04:49So the war is only over when the Russians understand
04:53that Ukraine is an independent country
04:55and they cease to want to conquer it.
04:57And I don't know exactly how that will happen or why.
05:00It can happen for military reasons
05:02because they run out of men,
05:04which is already beginning to happen,
05:06or, you know, or ammunition,
05:07which is also beginning to happen.
05:08This is why they need contacts
05:10in North Korea and Iran and China.
05:13You know, it can happen for political reasons
05:16because of divisions inside Russia
05:17and discontent and exhaustion with the war,
05:20which is, we also see evidence of that.
05:23There is evidence of that.
05:24Of course.
05:25And there is also,
05:26or it can also happen for economic reasons
05:28because Russia's unable to support the war effort.
05:32And so our policy towards Russia
05:35should be to keep pushing on all three of those,
05:38in all three of those areas
05:39and as many areas as possible.
05:42We should aid the Ukrainians,
05:43but we should also put as much pressure on Russia
05:46as we can.
05:47We have not yet really,
05:50we are not yet treating this war as if it's our war.
05:53We aren't, we don't really understand yet
05:56the significance of what happens if Ukraine loses
05:59and the importance of some kind of victory.
06:03I mean, remember that the Ukrainians
06:05don't have to occupy Moscow.
06:06You know, I don't even,
06:07the government doesn't have to fall.
06:09All that has to happen is that the Russians decide
06:12Ukraine is a real country.
06:14And then we can have diplomacy.
06:17You are not only American, but also Polish.
06:20You have lived in Poland for most of the,
06:23for 50% of the year, like you told me,
06:26for decades and are married to the Polish foreign minister.
06:30In Poland, the populist Peace Party was voted out
06:34even though it still has a president.
06:37Is there hope for democracy?
06:39Is this a sign?
06:40The Polish election campaign was genuinely a triumph
06:44of civic engagement.
06:46It was the highest turnout in any Polish election
06:48in since 1989.
06:51A lot of younger people voted,
06:53younger women especially voted who'd never voted before.
06:57And one of the motivating arguments was democracy.
07:00We need to make sure that the autocratic populist government,
07:04which was at that time,
07:06working on capturing the state,
07:08taking over state institutions,
07:10state television, but not only,
07:11the Chinese, the bureaucracy,
07:13a lot of pieces of the state and effectively privatizing,
07:16they were politicizing them for the use
07:18of one political party.
07:20And people didn't want that.
07:22They wanted it to stop.
07:24They wanted a return to democratic institutions.
07:26They wanted Poland to stay inside the European Union
07:28because there was also a threat
07:29that the politicization of the judiciary
07:33would have meant Poland couldn't be an EU member.
07:35And there was a concerted desire to change it.
07:39And it happened.
07:40That was also a coalition.
07:41There was a center-left party,
07:43a center-right party and a liberal party
07:46worked together to change the government.
07:48So yes, absolutely, it's possible.
07:50There was another war in the Middle East.
07:52Is there a chance to get the conflict under control
07:55and do autocrats play a role there too?
08:01Well, one of the most important players
08:03in the Middle East is Iran.
08:05And Iran has proxies who have been acting
08:08in several different ones.
08:10I mean, there's Hezbollah, there's Hamas,
08:11there's the Houthis and others actually,
08:14who have been seeking to use violence
08:17to spread chaos for many decades.
08:21So part of what that war is about is that.
08:25I mean, it's a much more complicated war.
08:27So in Israel, you also have undemocratic forces
08:30inside Israel.
08:31Netanyahu has partners in his coalition
08:34who I would describe as extremists
08:38who've pushed the war in a much bloodier direction
08:41than it should ever have gone.
08:43But it's also a war that really only ends
08:47when there is an acceptance of everybody's right to exist.
08:52And then once Iran accepts Israel's right to exist
08:56and Israel accepts the right of the Palestinians to exist,
08:59then we have peace.
09:00So in that sense, I suppose you can see a parallel.
09:03Populism is growing in the West.
09:05Confidence in the power of democracy has fallen.
09:08People feel threatened by migration, by inflation,
09:11by wars, by globalization.
09:13What can the West do?
09:16So first of all, all of those things you've just said
09:18are issues that are pushed and promoted
09:21by the autocratic world.
09:23Migration is partly a crisis
09:27because of the Russian war in Syria
09:29and also because of the Russian war in Ukraine.
09:32Inflation is high also partly
09:34because of the Russian war in Ukraine
09:36and therefore higher oil prices.
09:39So there is a connection between people's sense
09:41of disappointment and the rise and growth
09:44of autocracy as well.
09:45So part of reestablishing faith in our political system
09:52and in our institutions is understanding
09:56where the challenges are coming from
09:57and pushing back against them.
09:59I mean, I'm not saying that all the challenges are external
10:01because they're certainly not.
10:03But that's an important part of the answer.
10:06Elections will be held in the US in a few weeks.
10:08Are you worried that Donald Trump
10:10could turn America into an autocracy?
10:13Donald Trump will not turn America into an autocracy,
10:16but it's also true that he will not be
10:18or he would not be a leader of a democratic coalition.
10:23He will not lead the fight against Autocracy, Inc.
10:26He will not see himself as the person who can, for example,
10:31push back against the world of anonymous companies
10:35and offshore investments.
10:36One of the arguments I make in the book
10:37is that one of the things that's weakened our economy
10:41is this shadow world of finance
10:44that exists alongside the real world.
10:47He won't push back against that.
10:48He won't see himself as a leader of Europe.
10:51He will not wanna defend Europe against Russia
10:54if it comes to that.
10:55So I do hope that Europeans are prepared
10:59for that possibility and are beginning to think about
11:02what the alternative could be.
11:03You describe how the autocrats work together
11:06and that they're, as Democrats, as a Western world,
11:09what they can do is change the finance system.
11:13Can you explain that?
11:15So one of the ways in which that has,
11:18one of the systems that has kept autocrats in power
11:22is their ability to steal and hide money.
11:24And they can hide money in Caribbean islands,
11:28but they can also hide it through anonymous companies.
11:31They can buy property in London or South of France.
11:35They are able to move money around the world
11:36secretly and anonymously.
11:38Sometimes the money in the US,
11:40it's thought that some of the money turns up
11:43in the form of political influence.
11:45Whenever you trace, whenever, for example,
11:47the FBI or the Department of Justice
11:50traces a Russian influence campaign in the US,
11:53there was recently one that was exposed.
11:55The Russians were paying a group of YouTubers,
11:58kind of far right,
12:00a kind of far right media company in Tennessee.
12:02They were paying them to produce videos.
12:04And of course, all the money for that campaign
12:07went via shell companies.
12:09So there is an alternative financial system
12:13that is very heavily used by the world's dictatorships
12:16and we could stop it.
12:17We could put an end to it.
12:19We could make it impossible to have,
12:21to found an anonymous company
12:23or to hide money anonymously.