Here Is The Reason Why Cole Palmer Is The Best Player In The Premier League Right Now
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00:00Right, hello everybody, Adam Peary from 442 and Cole Palmer.
00:09That's a really weird intro.
00:14Yes, Cole Palmer, I like him more than he likes Chippy Chips.
00:19He went and got four goals against Brighton, which is extraordinary, and he did it all
00:22in the first half, which is extraordinary, and it's not even the first time he's got
00:27four goals, which is extraordinary.
00:30Now I know you, you come to 442 for high quality, in-depth, cerebral, tactical analysis, and
00:36we will absolutely be doing that, like this is Chelsea under Pochettino, where Cole Palmer
00:41was really, really good, and this is sort of like Chelsea under Maresco, where Cole
00:45Palmer is still really, really good, but I don't think there's ever been a player as
00:50good as Cole Palmer, who was more inherently just vibes than Cole Palmer, so let's look
00:57at those.
00:59Okay, so obviously I am still a bad football nerd, so when I say vibes, what I actually
01:04mean is numbers, and Cole Palmer's numbers are not just insane or impressive, they are
01:09genuinely unprecedented.
01:12Some of the statistics he is putting up, some of the records he is breaking, are genuinely
01:16up there with some of the greatest players who have ever played this game, so we're going
01:21to go through as many of them as possible right now, so you can fully appreciate just
01:26what he is doing.
01:28Now first up, you might have seen this one on Sky the other night, Jamie Carragher said
01:31he's probably the best player in the Premier League right now, it's total goal involvement,
01:37so combined goals and combined assists, which I don't think is particularly good methodology,
01:42but nonetheless, you can't argue with the output.
01:44Now you'll see here that he is ahead of Erling Haaland, which is obviously incredibly impressive,
01:48even though you don't really associate Haaland with assists, but he's just behind Harry
01:52Kane, who is someone you do associate with being involved in the build-up and creating
01:57chances for others.
01:58Now it is, in my opinion, simply impressive enough to be sandwiched betwixt these two
02:03players, but let's just have a little think here, right?
02:07Manchester City swept all comers aside last season and scored 149 goals in all competitions,
02:13because they're really, really good.
02:15And Bayern Munich, despite obviously suffering from the Harry Kane curse and not winning
02:19anything, still created 120 goals last season, because they are really, really good.
02:24Now, Chelsea fans, I hope you'll permit me a pass to say this, because I was really positive
02:29about you at the start of last season, and we did loads of videos about how good you
02:32were at the end of last season, but in between that, so like the bulk of the last 365 days,
02:41you were sh**.
02:42Cole Palmer managed to have a season comparable to both Kane and Haaland, despite playing
02:47for a team that was like 11th or 12th at Christmas.
02:50Anyway, got a lot to get through here.
02:52Scouted FTBL put up this absolutely unbelievable little graph the other day, which shows players
02:59who've contributed to four or more goals in a game.
03:02Now a couple of things to note with this, obviously it's just packed to the rafters
03:06with retired legends of the game.
03:09Palmer is already in their company, but of the players still playing, still active or
03:14in their prime, you've only really got Salah, who is now in the autumn of his career, has
03:19played hundreds and hundreds of games for a really, really good Liverpool side.
03:22Haaland, who is a freak of nature, playing for Freak of Nature FC, and Mbappe, who all
03:29due respect to France, did all those in France.
03:34As scouted FTBL very astutely points out, yeah, it's impressive that Cole Palmer's in
03:39this list, but you've got to remember, he's made 38 professional starts.
03:45Zlatan, Shearer, Lewandowski, Aguero, Kane, like these players have played hundreds, hundreds
03:51of matches for some of the best teams in the world, and Newcastle, I'll make the joke for
03:57you.
03:58Cole Palmer is on this list, having had one full season at a very average Chelsea side.
04:04We've got a ways to go yet, but are you getting the picture now?
04:07What he is doing is not normal.
04:09Okay, time for the raw data now.
04:11This is his FB ref profile of the last 365 days, so like the entire time he's been at
04:17Chelsea, comparative to all the other attackers and attacking midfielders, so anyone who you'd
04:21see in this sort of like not a midfielder, not a forward position, and compared to all
04:26the top five leagues in Europe.
04:28And as someone whose job requires them to look at way too many FB ref profiles, I can
04:34tell you, these are nuts.
04:37The volume of his goals, the volume of his assists, the volume of shots he gets away,
04:41the conversion rate of those shots, like all of these are in the very, very top brackets
04:46of all players in Europe.
04:48Even the one stat that might jump out at you as being bad here, his average shot distance,
04:53like clearly he shoots from loads further away than most other players in this position.
04:57That just makes all the other numbers that much more impressive, because if most of his
05:02shots are coming from this area, as opposed to say this area, that means the chances that
05:06his teammates are creating are not as good, and yet he is scoring lots and lots of goals.
05:13And to address the one criticism his output does tend to get, which is that if it wasn't
05:17for all those penalties, the numbers wouldn't look as good, this has columns for non-penalty
05:23contributions only.
05:25The 96th percentile, the top 4% in Europe for non-penalty goals and non-penalty xG.
05:33But this one here, this is the really big one though, this is the one stat you have
05:37to look for when appraising somebody's goal scoring ability.
05:41Goals and non-penalty goals minus their respective xG's.
05:46Now I know usual xG disclaimer, not a lot of people like that as a stat, like it's just
05:51imaginary, it doesn't really do anything, but this still remains the best statistical
05:56measure we have of someone's clinicity, is that a word, finishing?
06:02Like how good are they at taking the chance versus how good was the chance?
06:06So if you take the made up imaginary nerd number for the goals you should score and
06:09you minus it from the actual goals you should score, you should get zero.
06:14So then if you get a negative number, that means you're not getting as many goals as
06:17the chances say you should be getting, so you're not a very good finisher, but if you
06:21get a positive number, that means you're getting more goals than the chances say you should
06:25get, so you are a good finisher.
06:26So Cole Palmer is in the top 5% for that measure, which means he's in the top 5% of finishers
06:34in Europe.
06:35Or just to explain how those numbers translate into real football, plus 0.2 per 90 means
06:42that over 5 games, pretty much exactly, Cole Palmer will give you the equivalent of one
06:49goal out of absolutely nothing.
06:51So yes, the numbers say he is a wonderful, wonderful finisher, but he's not even just
06:55a finisher is he?
06:57All of his assist stats are amazing, he sees absolutely loads of the ball in possession,
07:01so he's making loads of passes, but the main stat here, progressive passes, it isn't just
07:06possession for possession's sake is it, he's constantly trying to move the ball forward.
07:12And this is my favourite one, right, 99 percentile for through balls, you can click on it on
07:18the FB Ref website, he is top of that stat, no other attacker in Europe splits the defence,
07:25and sees more than Cole Palmer did over the last 365 days.
07:32He's got the weapons, he's got the vision, he can kill you any way he wants to.
07:37Sorry, okay, I'll calm down now.
07:39The best thing about this, right, is that even his bad stats are actually good stats.
07:45These are his defensive numbers, right, and they're really low and red, so they suck obviously.
07:50Cole Palmer, he can't be pressing, like he's one of the worst attacking midfielders in
07:55Europe for going and getting the ball back, right?
07:59Well, yes, in terms of the sheer volume of it, but if we just move this graph over here
08:06and we put it next to his goal creating and shot creating action stats, strange mismatch.
08:14While his numbers of tackles and combined tackles and interceptions and tackles in the
08:18attacking thirds are really low, they then translate to some of the highest numbers in
08:24terms of goal and shot creating actions as the result of a defensive contribution.
08:30Like don't get me wrong, you watch him play for Pochettino, you watch him play for Moresco,
08:34now he is an effective part of a high press, he doesn't shirk the effort, he's always part
08:38of a good, coordinated, off the ball strategy, but he doesn't go careering round constantly
08:45throwing in challenges and trying to win the ball back.
08:47He commits to doing that only when he senses an opportunity to really make something happen.
08:54And these two numbers in real terms might seem incredibly small, but that just speaks
08:59to how hard this whole high pressing thing is to do.
09:02Like Palmer might only create a good chance for a teammate from winning the ball back
09:06every four, five or six games, or something like that, but that still puts him in the
09:10top 5% for doing that in Europe, like what a weapon.
09:16And I mean, while we're still here, goal creating actions, brackets, live ball, that's how many
09:21goals do you create just in open play, so not set pieces, not from specific things,
09:26just when you've got the ball, how many goals do you create per 90 minutes.
09:31Palmer is second in all of Europe, behind, weirdly, Thomas Muller, who isn't bad.
09:37So yes, that's your maths lesson over, those are all of Cole Palmer's numbers and why they
09:42make my brain dribble out the side of my ears every time I think about them.
09:47But how does he do that?
09:48Well, this is his seasonal heat map, I'll get rid of my coffee, sorry, two seconds.
09:52This is his seasonal heat map from last season, and you will see, tis neither one thing nor
09:58t'other.
09:59Cole Palmer's favourite place in the whole world, besides his own sofa with his PlayStation
10:03controller in his hand, is this half space here.
10:06And that's why he's so comfortable playing either as a 10, as he has been under Maresca,
10:11or as part of a sort of, how can I not do this anymore, a wide three under Pochettino,
10:16because both of these roles give him access to this area.
10:20Either wide right, where he can drift inside, play here, and allow a full back to sort of
10:24take up all that width there, or, confusing myself by doing this playing, that's him playing
10:30as a 10, and then sort of drifting out to here to allow whoever this is to attack the
10:36box.
10:37That's none of my business.
10:38The thing is, it's incredibly hard to defend players who want to be in that half space,
10:42because if he's the 10 and he's floating across, then either you've got to put a defensive
10:46midfielder on him who does not want to be getting dragged that far out of the centre,
10:49or a centre back has to step up, who again doesn't want to be getting dragged that far
10:53out of the centre, or you've got to pull a full back across, who will then not be able
10:58to attack down the flank.
10:59So it causes all kinds of consideration issues.
11:02And likewise, if he's starting out on the right and moving into that, the full back
11:05still doesn't want to be getting dragged in there.
11:07The centre back will keep an eye on him, but has to recognise when he's not there and when
11:11he is, and that distracts from everything else that's going on.
11:14It's a really difficult thing to correctly organise.
11:17You normally have to set up an entirely different system, usually with a back three, just to
11:22kind of deal with that.
11:23But why, Adam, I hear you ask, why does Cole Palmer like being in that position so much?
11:28Why doesn't he want to be in the box, or like attacking wide?
11:31What is it about that that he really likes?
11:33And the answer, my friend, thank you so much for asking, is incredibly simple.
11:38You see, when you combine all the things you can do in this area of the pitch, with Cole
11:41Palmer's specific skill set, his options on the ball are innumerable, innumerable, innumerable,
11:51lots.
11:52I mean, first off, obviously, he's got an absolute wand of a left foot, and if he can
11:56drop the shoulder and go around to the left of a defender, he's got a great angle to get
12:00shots away from.
12:01In fact, I saw a fantastic graph on The Athletic, thank you, The Athletic, of his shot placement
12:06for all his goals last season, like he hits the bottom corner of the net with unerring
12:11accuracy, virtually never shoots high, he never lets a wild one go, he picks his spot
12:16even from distance, remember, we saw his average shot distance on that graph, and he finds
12:21it.
12:22But also, because he's very two-footed and defenders kind of know he wants to go that
12:24way, he's also capable of just going around the outside of them into this area and crossing
12:29and creating with his right.
12:31Another major advantage of being in this part of the pitch is that if a centre-back comes
12:35out to deal with them, then usually the other centre-back is tied up with Nicholas Jackson,
12:38the full-back is dealing with whoever's on the right-hand side for Chelsea, it means
12:42that the area directly behind them is just open.
12:45Palmer's got more than enough dribbling skills, more than enough tricks in his locker that
12:48he can just go past whoever's in front of them, he loves putting it through their legs,
12:53and from there, wills his oyster.
12:55But what he really, really, really, really likes to do, Cole Palmer, is not actually
13:00go past a player.
13:02Like his favourite thing, the thing I like watching him do the most, is just scaring
13:06them.
13:07And he forces them back and back and back and creates a lot of room for himself, and
13:11his vision to recognise either runs from the centre-forward, the player on the other side
13:16arriving late into the box, and with his left foot, to pick out either sort of a slide or
13:21a cross ball into this area is incredible.
13:25Like, a lot of people love to make jokes about Cole Palmer that there's not one single thought
13:31going on between those ears besides football.
13:35What?
13:36But I would argue, if you look at his vision on a football pitch, that might be true, but
13:41the level to which he can process and think about football is way beyond anybody.
13:48The guy might have one of the biggest brains in Britain, it's just that he's dedicated
13:52200% of his processing power to the art of football, which is why when you look at him
13:57in the eyes, you sort of imagine an umperband gently playing.
14:01And of course, when you've got such a big footballing brain at your disposal, you can
14:05have quite a lot of fun with that.
14:07We're going to do a full, proper video on Marescus Chelsea and how he's changing them
14:11and adapting them, and they're doing so well this season, that is in the works, I promise.
14:16But as far as it concerns Palmer, he's being used, how can I put this?
14:22Very versatile-y.
14:23Like, I'll just take you on a little adventure here, right?
14:28This is his seasonal heat map from last season, you've already seen that.
14:31Now let's run that on into his seasonal heat map from this season, and despite the fact
14:35he's now starting as a ten, as opposed to on the right-hand side, you'll see, still
14:40doing most of his work in this wide area and in this half space.
14:43But then, weirder still, you take that and you just use the heat map from the Brighton
14:48game where he scored four goals, and you'd think, actually, that's a right wing back?
14:54And it looks like that, because Maresca has developed this team to be able to do a number
14:58of different things depending on the opposition.
15:01Now Brighton really wanted to press them high, and they were really happy to try and play
15:07through that press.
15:09Now they did concede two goals doing that, which obviously isn't great, but they also,
15:13when they did get through them, they ran amok.
15:16And the way they did this was they take the three that they like to start in the middle,
15:18and then sometimes, they just sort of rotate them round a bit to get into different areas
15:23of the opposition's press.
15:25Like now, Caicedo is sort of a single pivot, he can get between those first two areas,
15:29and then you've got Enzo and Palmer, who are now in that sort of second line of the press,
15:33so you can go many different ways.
15:35And that's reflected in their average positions from that, because while Cole Palmer is sort
15:39of like floating around Jackson, being a very attacking player, he can still draw that
15:45rotated triangle around Caicedo, Enzo and him.
15:49But yes, anyway, as I say, we will cover that in far more depth in our Look How Good Enzo
15:54Maresca's Chelsea is video, which we will do in the very near future.
16:00It's just, I've seen the messages, Chelsea fans, I've seen the comments, and I've seen
16:05the tweets, and you're right, we have not covered you guys at all enough lately.
16:10You've been really, really good, and we haven't done a video on why yet, and I ought to explain.
16:16We don't get to be in this room as often as we would like to be in this room, so the videos
16:21we have done have sort of had to line up with when we can get in, and Chelsea just weirdly
16:26haven't yet, and also, I did not see the faces of my friends or loved ones across the summer
16:33because of the Euros and because of transfers, and that made them sad, some of them.
16:39So I am just, I'm doing my best, but we will.
16:44We will do it, and we will do it soon, and you've got Liverpool after the international
16:49break on the 20th, I think, so if you win that, we'll do it all over again, and if you
16:54get stuffed, then you'll at least get a mention.
16:58So if you would like to see that or any of the videos we do, please do consider subscribing
17:01to us here on 442.
17:02This is the Fun Channel, where the tactics are fun, and Cole Palmer is also fun, and
17:08I am fun.
17:09Adam Cleary can get me on all the fun websites, not those ones, at adamcleary, C-L-E-R-Y,
17:14the 442 socials, that's fun too.
17:16They're in the corner of the video of the latest issue of the magazine.
17:19What fun that is.
17:20It's just a floating image of a TFOE since I forgot to bring it in, and until next time,
17:24when more fun will happen, I am away to do some fun.
17:28This has gone out of control, and I will see you soon.
17:32Bye!