Cole Palmer bagged an incredible FOUR goals in Chelsea's demolition of Everton, taking him to the very top of the Premier League scoring charts. Putting aside the tension with Nicholas Jackson and Noni Madueke over the penalty, the game neatly illustrated just why he's had such an incredible first season under Mauricio Pochettino. Adam Clery looks at the goals, the player, and the numbers, to show just how special a player he's already become.
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00:00 [BELL RINGS]
00:02 Now it will not have escaped your attention that in Chelsea's most recent fixture,
00:05 Cole Palmer took a long hard look at Everton and decided that he was going to-
00:09 [MUSIC]
00:13 And the thing is, while this Everton side aren't exactly particularly threatening at the minute,
00:17 they're also not overly leaky, usually.
00:20 They've had clean sheets this season against Fulham, against Wolves, against Newcastle, against Chelsea.
00:24 Last time they played them, they recently went to the Etihad and kept it to two,
00:28 so they're not going to hurt you too much going this way,
00:31 but you're also not going to create too much against them.
00:33 Like, this is a mad start, but prior to the kickoff against Chelsea,
00:37 Everton had actually conceded less shots total this season than Chelsea had.
00:43 I know I'm front-loading this video with, like, stuff about Everton,
00:46 but I just- I want to get away from the "Ugh, it was only Everton" comments, right?
00:50 What Cole Palmer did last night to them was impressive.
00:53 But yes, about that. So Chelsea set up in this 4-2-3-1 system.
00:57 We see them use it all the time, but normally we expect Cole Palmer to be on the right-hand side,
01:01 drifting in, doing a bit of playmaking, but last night he was just shoved straight in as the number 10.
01:07 Except, was he really, though? Because if we overlay the average positions of the Chelsea players in that game,
01:12 you'll see that actually he was further forward than Nicholas Jackson.
01:15 He was pretty much just playing as a regulation centre-forward, albeit starting a little deeper.
01:20 But also, whilst we're getting involved in the graphs, I want to show you his pass map from that game,
01:25 because this sort of makes it look like he was starting as the number 10,
01:28 but he was just determined to get in the box and score goals.
01:31 Not unlike, what's a good example? Sergio Aguero when he used to play with Dzeko,
01:35 because he would always try and get beyond him, he wasn't really playing as a number 10.
01:38 I'll just show you his pass map, right? It's not that he was playing as a centre-forward,
01:42 it's that he was playing with almost total freedom.
01:45 And I'm giving myself way too much editing work here, but we'll put his heat map on this as well at the same time,
01:50 and you can sort of see, you'd expect the main contribution of his on-ball activity to be around here,
01:56 because that's where he's appearing on the heat map.
01:58 He's just outside the box, he's slightly over to the right-hand side, because he wants to get on his left foot.
02:03 But you can see all the other areas where he's been, it's to get on the ball.
02:10 He's not just sort of going out there and doing nothing,
02:12 he's finding space when he needs to and where he needs to, to impact the game.
02:17 And I just want you to do me a favour, right, commit this to memory,
02:20 because we're going to go look at the goals now, because they're far more sexy and exciting.
02:24 But we're going to come back here, because for as much as the goals tell us the kind of player he is,
02:28 this actually tells us the kind of player he really is.
02:32 So, very conveniently for me, he wanted to make a video telling you about Cole Palmer,
02:37 all four of his goals against Everton last night, really neatly encapsulated, word of the day,
02:43 an element of his forward play.
02:45 You've got instinct, you've got vision, you've got work rate, and you've got composure.
02:49 So goal number one, Chelsea have the ball at the back, and just as an aside,
02:53 is this them finally reaching the promised land of giving Moises Caicedo the ball under pressure,
02:59 and that actually being a way for them to build out from the back?
03:02 We've done six videos this season of something and why they haven't been doing that,
03:06 and it's been driving me mad, but I digress.
03:10 Everton's low block, as neatly illustrated by me here, is designed to restrict the space around the edge of the box,
03:16 where teams need to get the ball to make things happen, to force them to not have time,
03:21 to make bad decisions, to misplace passes, to turn the ball over, right?
03:26 Now, because of the good work in the build-up, Chelsea have opened Everton up a little bit more here.
03:30 You would expect this line of midfielders to be a lot closer, but the defence are still being aggressive,
03:35 they're not giving him time on the ball, even though he's dropped to find a bit of space.
03:39 But Cole Palmer receives the ball, and when he looks up, he has Jared Brantwaite right in his face.
03:44 There is no time to think whatsoever, and yet, he just plays it through his legs like he's not even there.
03:51 This puts Everton into panic mode, he's surrounded by two other defenders, and yet again,
03:55 instinctively, he flicks the ball out to Nicholas Jackson, who's found a tiny little bit of space.
04:00 And then when Jackson rolls the ball back to him, Palmer hasn't even really looked up.
04:04 He doesn't know where Jordan Pickford is positioned.
04:06 He doesn't really know if a defender's likely to get across and block this shot, but again,
04:10 instinctively, he finishes perfectly into the bottom left corner.
04:15 Like, you go back and you watch this goal at full speed, there is not a single thing Cole Palmer does
04:20 that comes with any amount of time to think about it in advance.
04:24 He just does it all, because around the box, doesn't matter how little time you give him,
04:28 his instincts are so, so good.
04:31 But what happens when he can think about stuff? Well, that's where his vision comes into it.
04:34 Chelsea have a corner, it breaks down, so Palmer drifts out to the left-hand side where the play is,
04:39 because he can see that there is space, he can see that there are ways he can impact the play.
04:43 Now, initially, he does really well to find this much space on the edge of the box between Everton's defensive lines,
04:47 but Chelsea don't use them, they instead play the ball down the byline.
04:51 Now, we just stop it right here, and I said to you that in about two seconds' time,
04:55 a Chelsea player is going to score a header from within the six-yard box.
04:59 I will give you a million pounds if you tell me who it is, you are never, ever, ever saying it's Cole Palmer.
05:05 And the mad thing is, in this passage of play alone, he actually makes two incredible decisions,
05:09 because first off, he moves into this space here, and if we just look at it from this angle,
05:13 Mudrick should probably really see him and cut it back to sort of towards the penalty spot,
05:18 because he would have the most space out of anyone, he's the only one unmarked.
05:22 When the ball gets to Jackson, a lot of players would then stop their run,
05:25 because either it's going to go into the net, or it's going to be saved and come back out more towards this sort of area.
05:31 But again, Palmer doesn't do that, he decides to keep his run going, he decides to gamble.
05:36 He had the vision to not only identify the space correctly the first time,
05:39 but also that his best chance of getting the goal after that was going to be here, rather than here.
05:45 It does maybe overlap with that instinct point a little bit, but it's my video.
05:49 Anyway, yes, number three, work great, and a lot of people are saying the third goal is a Jordan Pickford howler,
05:54 and, well, it is, yes, obviously it absolutely is, but the thing is, when Pickford gets the ball,
06:00 this pass between Chelsea's press is absolutely on.
06:05 Palmer and Jackson aren't doing anything special here for a 4v2 situation,
06:08 Jackson curves his run this way around to try and cut off the pass to the left for Pickford,
06:13 while closing him down at the same time, and then Palmer just has to kind of drift between these two.
06:18 They're completely outnumbered, it's to be expected.
06:20 He doesn't do that, he sort of gestures as if he's going to close down the pass on Pickford's right,
06:25 which is exactly what Evan would want him to do, but he's like, his muscles are all tense,
06:30 it's like a cat trying to get onto the counter, he's ready to spring back the other way if Pickford takes the bait,
06:36 which of course he does, and if you do this frame by frame, you can see Palmer actually starts to go to cut off this pass
06:42 before Pickford actually makes it, like that's the gamble.
06:46 Like if it goes out to the right, then he's never, he's just going to close him down, nothing exciting's going to happen there.
06:51 So he might as well roll the dice a little bit, and when Pickford's committed to making the pass, jump.
06:56 And it pays off, he intercepts the ball, Jordan Pickford isn't so much in no-man's land as the f***ing land before time,
07:03 he scoops it over his head, 3-0.
07:05 Now if you didn't see the game, or you've not been on the internet at all today, you might just say,
07:09 well it's just a penalty, Adam, everyone's got to have a bit of composure for a penalty, right?
07:13 But all the stuff that other teams do to try and put a penalty taker off, like standing on the spot,
07:19 delaying the kick, jumping up and down on the line, getting in the referee's ear, saying this, saying that,
07:24 could any of it, any of it, put more pressure on than three or four of your teammates having an argument in front of you
07:32 that you shouldn't take the penalty?
07:35 Truly and honestly, I have never seen anything like this since the last time it literally happened in a Chelsea match,
07:42 which I think was against Arsenal, and both times Cole Palmer just totally unfazed.
07:47 Like if anything should get in your head, it should be that, and both times he just steps up and very coolly puts the penalty away.
07:54 Like the Man City penalty as well, last minute, it's an equaliser, you've thrown the game away, it's your old club,
08:00 the rain is coming down, that should faze players, but it never phases Cole Palmer.
08:05 Instinct, vision, work rate, composure, and all four of them collectively show unbelievable technique at the same time.
08:13 You could not wish, wish for a better goalscorer.
08:16 But the thing is, Cole Palmer is not a goalscorer.
08:20 And the thing is, he's such a good goalscorer, right, that he's made Chelsea this season this bizarre statistical anomaly,
08:27 because if you look at all their underlying numbers this season, especially in front of goal,
08:31 they tell you that simultaneously, they're absolutely awful, but also, they should be a lot higher in the league.
08:38 So right now, in the actual Premier League table, Chelsea are ninth, which is like outside the European positions,
08:43 it's really, really bad, but in other tables, they're much higher.
08:47 They're actually in sixth for the total number of goals, which is obviously a pretty big improvement.
08:51 They're fifth in the XG table, which is miles better than ninth, and they're fourth for the actual shooting accuracy.
08:57 So theoretically, in front of goal, they're a really good side.
09:00 But in terms of actual chance creation, so the amount of chances they've created this season,
09:04 and the number of actual shots for both of those, they're twelfth.
09:09 So just to put that into context, right, simultaneously, in front of goal,
09:13 Chelsea have the numbers of a team who should be in the European places, possibly even challenging for the Champions League.
09:19 But in terms of actually getting there, making those situations happen, they should be in the bottom half of the league.
09:26 And the only way this can happen is if one or multiple members of your team are absolutely lethal in front of goal.
09:33 They will routinely and regularly take chances that most players would not score from and score from them.
09:40 Well, looking at the top goal scorers this season, it's not Connor Gallagher, fair play, he's coming out pretty much average.
09:45 It's not Raheem Sterling either, who is also scoring about as many goals as he should.
09:49 Mikhailo Mudrik is fractionally overperforming his xG at +0.03, which will, let me do the maths in my head,
09:56 get you basically a goal out of nothing every 32 matches.
10:01 And no, it's not Nicholas Jackson, who I do actually really like as a player, but the numbers will tell you,
10:08 has been one of the most wasteful finishers in all of Europe this season. He's actually hurting the cause.
10:15 I'm not even going to bother with the drumroll. Obviously, it's Cole Palmer, whose numbers in front of goal this season
10:20 are just absolutely incredible across the board. He's one of the best owed performers in terms of the chances they give him.
10:26 He scores from absolutely nothing. And that number there, that basically equates to he will score a goal most players wouldn't score,
10:34 like every three or four games. And the thing is, like I always try and say, the numbers only tell you so much.
10:40 Like they're completely worthless unless you can look an actual game of football and see what it is they're suggesting
10:45 borne out in reality. But I would say that if the numbers are telling us that Chelsea are like a lower to mid table side
10:52 in sort of their general play and everything they do, but in front of goal, they perform like a team who should be going
10:58 after a Champions League place. And the reason for that is entirely how good Cole Palmer is.
11:05 That, yeah, yeah, you can kind of see that. And I'm going to regret going down this rabbit hole because I can already tell
11:11 this video is going to be way, way, way too long. But do we remember this and how I told you to remember it?
11:16 Right. Cole Palmer is not just Chelsea's best goal scorer. He's not just going to be the Premier League's best goal scorer.
11:21 He's not just a goal scorer that is taking a team from the mud and the mire to the golden paradise of European football.
11:29 He's also not even a goal scorer. This is not the pass map or the heat map of somebody who is likely to get you four goals
11:39 in a match. It's the pass map or the heat map of a creative player looking to get on the ball and influence the match.
11:46 Like if we look at his seasonal heat map across the entire season, that is not where an out and out goal scorer plays.
11:53 Like you think about Mo Salah gets a lot of goals from the right hand side. His doesn't look like this.
11:57 He's way more concentrated in and around the box. He gets into that space way more. He's so rarely in this particular area of the pitch.
12:04 But Palmer goes everywhere looking to get on the ball to create stuff. And if you actually sit and look, it is creative numbers,
12:12 not just his goal scoring numbers. It's frightening. Like this is them here with the exception of the fact he doesn't particularly like to cross the ball.
12:19 They're so consistent. They're so nearly faultless. And in all the areas that really make a difference, he scores so high.
12:27 Like passes into the penalty area, passes into the final third, key passes, which is just stuff that leads to a chance being made.
12:33 Like he's one of the best players in the league for that, as well as scoring goals.
12:37 I could honestly spend like an hour talking about Cole Palmer in this Chelsea side, like how he scores, how he creates, how he helps with their practice.
12:44 One little subtle thing I want to show you here, which I just think says loads.
12:50 So these are his defensive numbers, right? They're not very good at all. There are players who play in his position, who also play in a high pressing side,
12:56 who win the ball back way more, who are far more aggressive in a tackle. Like that's not something he's particularly good at.
13:02 But I'm just going to show you his shot and chance creation numbers alongside that, right?
13:06 Notice how high he scores for shot and chance creation from a defensive action.
13:13 Just in the same way that he's so efficient in front of goal, how he needs so few chances to actually score.
13:19 He doesn't win the ball back a lot. He doesn't expend loads of energy chasing it around or putting in tackles.
13:25 But when he does get that ball back, when he recognizes that the chance is there to make something happen,
13:31 he's literally the best player in the Premier League this season for turning a tackle or a block or an interception into a chance.
13:40 And in terms of turning those into a goal, it's only Sinisterra and Jota who are scoring higher than he is.
13:45 And given I've just shown you how efficient his Chelsea colleagues are in front of goal,
13:49 I would suggest that in a different side, or at least playing with the players that Jota and Sinisterra are, he might score way higher.
13:58 So yes, Cole Palmer, just the complete footballer this season, in my opinion.
14:02 Like it's insane. It's insane that Man City let him go when now he's demonstrating that he is as lethal in front of goal as Erling Haaland is,
14:10 but also as influential across the rest of the pitch as Kevin De Bruyne.
14:15 Like, why would you sell that?
14:18 Also, I absolutely understand what it is that Jared Bowen could bring to this England squad,
14:23 but if he somehow ends up on that plane instead of Palmer,
14:28 I will have to just magically discover that I've got a French grandparent or something.
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