The unlikeliest wildcard comeback needs a deep rewind
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00:00It's October 8, 2022. We're in the Rogers Center for game two of the AL wildcard series.
00:07It's the bottom of the ninth and the long-suffering Toronto Blue Jays are down 9-10 to the longer
00:13suffering Seattle Mariners. But baseball's not a suffering contest. Well, actually, you
00:19know what? Let's rewind. This episode is brought to you by T-Mobile, America's largest 5G network.
00:26The Blue Jays are an out away from being eliminated. So why are these fans so happy? Well, I don't
00:32know them. It could be something personal, maybe something gambling related, but also
00:37they're probably happy because they're actually in the playoffs. The bar used to be higher
00:42for happiness in Toronto. In 2015 and 16, it was fun to be a Blue Jays fan. Life was
00:48nothing but deep playoff runs, wildcard winning walk-offs, and statement bat flips. The future
00:55looked bright. What's that say? Print's too small. Yes, the future looked bright. Ah crap.
01:03That's worse. Oh God. After a couple oops all injuries seasons, the Jays threw in the
01:10towel in the summer of 2018, no longer attempting to ride the wave of their ALCS teams. They
01:17were starting over. In those dark times, they couldn't bribe fans to come to games. And
01:23they tried to, with cheap beer. They just kind of bungled the execution. They did have
01:29a solid farm system, and by 2021, there was finally reason for excitement. The homegrown
01:35kids were flashing star, if not superstar potential. Acquisition Robbie Ray was the
01:40Cy Young winner. And best of all, the Jays won 91 games. Which wasn't enough to make
01:48the postseason. They missed the wildcard by one game. But okay, let's try, try again.
01:552022 should be good. They lost Robbie Ray, but gained Kevin Gossman, so all good. Yes,
02:02eventually. After a speed bump, Toronto got a new manager and finished strong. They won
02:09five of their last six games to clinch the wildcard. And it's safe to say the fans had
02:13come back around. Here's proof. In September, Guerrero Jr. hit a walk-off in the 10th against
02:19the Yankees that moved the Jays two and a half games ahead in the wildcard race. And
02:25fans saw it as a testament to how great God was. After six years, the Blue Jays were competitive
02:31again. So yeah, you might see a little extra jubilation in fans tonight. Six years is a
02:37long time to wait for your team to be competitive. Just don't tell that to a Mariners fan. Before
02:44this series, the Mariners had not been to the playoffs since 2001. I'll do the math
02:50for you, that's 21 years. Which is more than six. And it's not like Seattle was running
02:56the postseason before 2001. In their 45 years of existence before this season, they'd been
03:02to the playoffs four times. They'd been above 500 just 15 times. To be a Mariners fan was,
03:11at least according to one writer, to be akin to the heroine in the ancient Greek epic poem
03:15The Odyssey, waiting for her beloved to return home after years and years of fighting the
03:21vengeful God of the Sea. A lot of God talk between these two fan bases. They take the
03:27game seriously. So how'd the Mariners get good enough to make the wildcard series this
03:33year? Well, that started in 2018. They won 89 games that year, which was their best since
03:402003. You're likely expecting me to say they steadily improved from 89 games to the drought-busting
03:46wildcard birth of 2022. But that's not what happened. The Mariners tore down that 2018
03:54in favor of a rebuild. Part of the reason was that they had the oldest offense in the league.
04:00And part of the reason was that, unlike Toronto, they had a terrible farm system. In 2016,
04:06it was called a turd sandwich. Though by 2018, it had improved to simply the worst farm system in
04:13baseball. With a bunch of oldies, nobody to call up and no prospects to trade, the only way the
04:18Mariners could provide for their future was to give up on the 2018-89 win team and start over.
04:26In just a matter of weeks, fans saw the front office dismantle any semblance of hope they had.
04:322019 was just terrible. COVID season was bad, because of the pandemic and also the record.
04:40And then, huh. That was a surprise. And it's more surprising when you look at their 2021
04:48run differential. It's odd they were able to win so many games with a black mark like that on their
04:54stat sheet. But this stat here provides a bit of an explanation. What is fun differential?
05:02Well, it's a new statistic invented by manager Scott Service, who was tired of being asked about
05:07his team's lousy run differential and wanted to highlight what was going right. The Mariners were
05:12winning close games in the clutch. They had 10 walk-offs in total this year. It was fun to be
05:18a Mariners fan. As proof, I present July 26, 2021. Seattle was down 7-0 in the fourth to the division
05:26leading Houston Astros. While some years you might turn off the TV with a score like that, last year
05:32was different. The Mariners rallied back and were down just 8-7 in the bottom of the eighth.
05:37And then Dylan Moore did this. Look at the fans. That's what a fun differential is. I hate to bring
05:45the mood down, but you remember the 21-year drought thing, right? They did not make the playoffs in 2021.
05:53But everyone thought Seattle could end the drought in 2022. One ESPN analyst even thought they could
06:00win the division. They made some smart off-season moves, one in particular to the detriment of Toronto,
06:06signing Robbie Ray. Those high hopes looked foolish come mid-June. But you know that old expression.
06:14It's always darkest before a team figures their shit out. Robbie Ray stopped being disappointing,
06:20Cal Raleigh started hitting after a stint in the minors, and Julio Rodriguez took off in the back
06:25half of the season. He's a top rookie of the year candidate. In early July, Seattle went on a 14-game
06:31win streak, and they kept the fun alive, winning half of those 14 games by just one run. They also
06:38started dancing. Management capitalized on the momentum and made a win-now move, trading five
06:44prospects for Luis Castillo. Then, on September 30th, it finally happened. Bottom of the ninth,
06:51tie game, two outs, Raleigh pitch hitting. The fun differential was even higher this year.
06:57The Mariners made history. And they can expand their history-making tonight. All they have to
07:04do is get one more out. Maybe they should target this guy, Ramiel Tapia, who wasn't even supposed
07:10to be right here right now. Tapia's only in this game because Witt Merrifield took a pitch to the
07:16head in the bottom of the fifth. Uh, hang on, what's the score right over there? 8-1 Toronto?
07:23Okay, well, since we've got the remote out, let me just... Huh. 10-9 Seattle. 8-1 Toronto. This is
07:33from the same game? Yes. How'd the score flip around like that? Well, it was a reasonable 4-1
07:41Blue Jays in the bottom of the fifth when the Mariners started to unravel. A Cal Raleigh passed
07:47ball with the bases loaded, made it 5-1, but nobody's going to hold it against him. He is a
07:52Pacific Northwest hero. Two batters later, with the bases loaded again, Paul Seawald hit to Oscar
07:59Hernandez. That's 6-1, and it's where I got the word unravel from. It's unraveling for the Mariners
08:06here. Seawald gave up a couple more runs, getting us to 8-1, which is when Diego Castillo came in
08:13and hit Witt Merrifield in the head to load the bases. He did manage to escape, though. So, that's
08:19how the Mariners dug their hole. How'd they climb out of it? In the top of the sixth, Gosman faltered
08:25a little bit. He'd thrown four no-hit innings, but in the sixth, he gave up three consecutive singles
08:31to load the bases. Management said goodnight to Gosman and brought in Tim Meza, which was an
08:38interesting choice considering DH Carlos Santana was up, and he hits better off of lefties. Yes,
08:45yes, he does. He walloped a three-run homer and put his team back in this game. A couple innings
08:50later, JP Crawford popped up for the third out. Ooh, we got a nasty collision between Beau Bichette
08:57and George Springer. Scary for the future of the Blue Jays and also the present. Mariners
09:05tied the game on this play. Raleigh scored in the ninth, and here we are, an out away from glory.
09:12And who is this baby-faced fellow the Mariners are entrusting with getting that out? A rookie who
09:19has never pitched in relief before. Cool, cool, cool. Cool. George Kirby was drafted 20th overall
09:27in 2019 out of Elon University. His rookie status means he's inexperienced, but even considering
09:34that, he hasn't really pitched that many innings. His career high at Elon was 90 and a third innings
09:39in a college season. His first year in the minors, he threw just 23 innings. Then he missed all of
09:452020 because COVID wrecked the minor league season. Kirby was called up in May of this year, and the
09:50Mariners have been limiting his innings to protect his arm for the future. So why on earth are they
09:55trusting the series-winning out to a kid who hasn't pitched that much? Because inexperience hasn't
10:02hindered George Kirby, who they call robo-pitcher. Only in baseball is being called a robot a compliment.
10:09Or maybe I guess in chess. Robots are good at chess. In his MLB debut, Kirby pitched six shutout
10:16innings and recorded seven strikeouts. In August, he threw 24 consecutive strikes to start a game,
10:23setting an MLB record. He developed a two-seam fastball this year to go along with his four-seam
10:29fastball and a slider. His velocity dipped a bit in his previous two outings, and that's literally
10:36the only negative thing I can find about his performance. Scott Service said they need to teach
10:41him how to throw a ball, but that's pretty clearly a joke. You don't teach things to robots, you
10:47program them. And his velocity's been just fine tonight. He hit 98 miles per hour a bunch of times.
10:54He got Hernandez to ground out, no small feat considering Hernandez had two homers earlier this
10:59game. After a walk, he struck out Danny Jansen, who went three of four with two RBI before meeting
11:06Kirby tonight. Then the rookie threw two strikes to Tapia, and here we are. The Blue Jays need to
11:14hang on to this game to avoid squandering six years of rebuilding efforts. The Mariners need
11:19a single out to make further history and to reward their loyal fans with more than just a playoff
11:25appearance. Both these fan bases feel they're overdue for glory, but tonight the suffering can
11:32end for only one team. Welcome to a moment in history. Is O2. Tapia to centerfield. Rodriguez
11:42there makes the catch, and one of the great comebacks in playoff history sends the Mariners
11:49to the division series. An incredible win.