El presidente de Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, se encuentra de visita a Alemania esta semana después de que el huracán Milton le obligara a cancelar su viaje previsto inicialmente para la semana pasada. ¿Qué puede significar para la OTAN y la UE su visita en vísperas de las elecciones estadounidenses?
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00:00El presidente de Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, se encuentra de visita a Berlín después
00:05de que el huracán Milton lo obligara a cancelar su viaje, originalmente programado para la
00:11semana pasada. Pero con las elecciones estadounidenses a la vuelta de la esquina, muchos se preguntan
00:17si la visita de Biden esta semana acercará a Ucrania a la membresía de la OTAN.
00:23I'd be surprised if anything that fundamental was announced after this meeting. I think this meeting is more symbolic, I think it's for Biden to sort of underscore again how important support for Ukraine is, how important the U.S. engagement with Europe is and U.S. leadership. This has been a major legacy of his presidency, so I think he just wanted to signal that again and set the stage.
00:49But really big decisions like the future of Ukraine, NATO membership, are going to happen before November, and also the Europeans are going to have to play a role there.
00:59¿Pero cómo podrían afectar las elecciones a la OTAN?
01:03The negative scenario under Trump or even Harris, if you have Harris and a really divided or stuck EU as we framed it, is a very weakened NATO because you have a massive security threat in the eastern border of the continent that requires either a really strong U.S. presence or something to change on the European side and for the Europeans to gain capabilities.
01:31And if the Europeans don't do that, then you'll have a very weakened NATO right away in 2025 and a very weakened European security, let's put it that way.
01:42¿Y bajo una presidencia de Harris?
01:45And with Harris' presidency you're looking at a similar result, less dramatic, but by 2027-2028 as well, because the U.S. simply doesn't have the capacity to stay focused on Europe to the extent that it has.
02:00Los expertos en seguridad instan a Europa a adoptar un enfoque más unido y acelerar la toma de decisiones difíciles para el futuro de la OTAN.